Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

mrbrianj

From the 3 options the thing to remember is that they are really England's options (yes England, because what Scotland and NI want or need does not matter).

We have agreed the WA that fits within the limits of our single market and customs unions, Freedom of movement, treaties etc. - you want to trade with us, then that's the deal. Anything else harms us more than losing UK trade - and we cant allow that happen. It's a UK problem that they cant digest what Brexit actually means for them.

On an individual level we in Ireland will be disproportionately effected by changes to the current status compared to the rest of the EU. The benefits of EU membership outweigh the convenience of trading with the UK.

The UK is a big market which is going from being part of us to being "on our doorstep". Trade dealers in the EU must be relishing the upcoming opportunity to be able to demand great deals in this new emerging market - it's going to be ripe for the picking especially in a no deal - so its a loss to be losing a integral part of the Union but the opportunities to cherrypick from the UK may limit the effects of that loss overall.

Us here? we're in trouble!

Quin_Dub

54&56 wrote: »

Interesting intervention by Angela Merkel - https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2019/0719/1064029-merkel-irish-border-comment/

"The Withdrawal Agreement is the Withdrawal Agreement," Ms Merkel told a news conference.

"But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship - so for the European Union's future ties to Britain - which basically squares the circle - on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends - that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak."

Ms Merkel added: "This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far."

Is she simply stating the obvious or opening the door for Boris to find a way to let the WA pass the HoC?

She's simply re-stating the obvious facts about the Backstop - It exists unless and until an alternative solution is agreed that satisfactorily resolves the issues around the Irish border vis a vis the Good Friday agreement and the EU customs rules.

That's what it's for and that all it will ever be for.

If the UK want to never see the backstop then come up with a solution and show the details!

All this further re-enforces how utterly moronic it was for them to trigger A50 without a plan in place.

What should have happened is that they sat down with all parties and mapped out all the potential issues and put in place mitigation for each of them and when that was complete, then move ahead on leaving.

Triggering Article 50 should have been almost the very last step in this process , not the 1st.

Water John

It was up to the UK to decide what it wanted internally, before triggering Art 50. The EU wasn't going to talk to them until Art 50 was triggered.

Nody

Tell me how wrote: »

I'm not suggesting it is for the EU to decide. I'm wondering which would be best for the societies within the EU as a whole. Including the UK and other countries.

In 12 or 24 months, all countries will still exist (hopefully), what is the best path it a safe and prosperous society for all at that time.

C for a few reasons; first of all it's the fastest way for UK to return to EU as a full member again (which is the desired outcome). It will help clear the air going all the way back to the 70s with the lies as well show to other potential Farange's in EU's various countries exactly why crashing out is a horrible idea. In short they would be the example set for any other people trying to argue to leave.

Secondly and this was mentioned above it will (hopefully) lead to a great shake up over time of the population as they realize the BS they been fed. There was a interview on the 3 pub accounts in Wales stating how one of the farmer's friends complained to him of how he had voted for Brexit but still had to ear tag his sheep as he though it would stop directly. That's an example of the level if shake up required in the British population in general which will not be an overnight thing but still very much required for them to understand the lies etc. once the politicians can't claim EU regulations on everything.

Third tied with the above once again is that it should help UK move on from the glory days of WW2 etc. and become part of the 21st century be this by death of older population or simply general education which should help force a new set of leaders into all relevant parties. This should in turn lead to a very much needed member of EU once again who can lead the charge for progress as well as work as a counterbalance to more right wing nationalistic agendas. It's a revitalization of their politics and bringing that to EU (which is needed now but even more so once they rejoin most likely).

Now why not A or B? Well A will simply change nothing in the UK in practice; the chaos will continue; the letter will be resent in a year or two by the new Brexiteer/Tory government etc. In short they need a time out to clean out their old laundry of issues and lies.

Why not B? Because to a great effect it's either going to end up in a no deal or it will end up with case A. Either scenario is simply delaying the inevitable and end up as a can kicking exercise draining energy and focus that is greatly needed elsewhere. Why? Because there is no way to get to a trade deal with UK's stated wishes and a UK wide customs union; any deal is worse than remaining but any Canada style deal is going to decimate UK by comparison to today. Hence it's damned if you do; damned if you don't scenario except it will play out over yet another 5+ years (and at least one GE which will throw everything back to square 1 again and give Brexit party a play for parliament even in a minor role).

Stop moaning ffs

Good read

Boris Johnson doesn't really believe in Brexit and will kick the can down the road like Theresa May did, according to columnist Rod Liddle.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/iain-dale/boris-doesnt-believe-in-brexit-rod-liddle/

MrMusician18

Nody wrote: »

C for a few reasons; first of all it's the fastest way for UK to return to EU as a full member again (which is the desired outcome). It will help clear the air going all the way back to the 70s with the lies as well show to other potential Farange's in EU's various countries exactly why crashing out is a horrible idea. In short they would be the example set for any other people trying to argue to leave.

Secondly and this was mentioned above it will (hopefully) lead to a great shake up over time of the population as they realize the BS they been fed. There was a interview on the 3 pub accounts in Wales stating how one of the farmer's friends complained to him of how he had voted for Brexit but still had to ear tag his sheep as he though it would stop directly. That's an example of the level if shake up required in the British population in general which will not be an overnight thing but still very much required for them to understand the lies etc. once the politicians can't claim EU regulations on everything.

Third tied with the above once again is that it should help UK move on from the glory days of WW2 etc. and become part of the 21st century be this by death of older population or simply general education which should help force a new set of leaders into all relevant parties. This should in turn lead to a very much needed member of EU once again who can lead the charge for progress as well as work as a counterbalance to more right wing nationalistic agendas. It's a revitalization of their politics and bringing that to EU (which is needed now but even more so once they rejoin most likely).

Now why not A or B? Well A will simply change nothing in the UK in practice; the chaos will continue; the letter will be resent in a year or two by the new Brexiteer/Tory government etc. In short they need a time out to clean out their old laundry of issues and lies.

Why not B? Because to a great effect it's either going to end up in a no deal or it will end up with case A. Either scenario is simply delaying the inevitable and end up as a can kicking exercise draining energy and focus that is greatly needed elsewhere. Why? Because there is no way to get to a trade deal with UK's stated wishes and a UK wide customs union; any deal is worse than remaining but any Canada style deal is going to decimate UK by comparison to today. Hence it's damned if you do; damned if you don't scenario except it will play out over yet another 5+ years (and at least one GE which will throw everything back to square 1 again and give Brexit party a play for parliament even in a minor role).

If the UK hard exits it's not coming back. The same kind of delusion posted above existed in the Irish unionist community after the treaty, that Ireland would collapse and be back in the arms of the Union within 5 years. Ireland suffered extreme economic hardship, but didn't go back.

The UK won't be coming back in the near to medium term if it actually does leave. The best that can be hoped for is that in a hard Brexit scenario the Brits agree to a SM CU relationship to end the economic disruption that keeps them outside the political structures, or some kind of associate membership, invented just for them.

So crystal ball gazing, I expect it will be C followed by a form of B some weeks/months later.

VinLieger

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Good read

Boris Johnson doesn't really believe in Brexit and will kick the can down the road like Theresa May did, according to columnist Rod Liddle.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/iain-dale/boris-doesnt-believe-in-brexit-rod-liddle/

The only thing Johnson cares about is being in power at the right time for history to recognise him as "saving the UK" from some catastrophe similar to Churchill because that's how he sees himself

trellheim

VinLieger wrote: »

The only thing Johnson cares about is being in power

FTFY

Stop moaning ffs

VinLieger wrote: »

The only thing Johnson cares about is being in power at the right time for history to recognise him as "saving the UK" from some catastrophe similar to Churchill because that's how he sees himself

But he’s not stupid. Delusions of Churchill aside he still has to either get this through on the 31st oand then deal with the aftermath which will be swift and crippling, or fail to get it through and get slaughtered at the ballot box.

Easily going to be the shortest lived PM I reckon.

VinLieger

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

But he’s not stupid. Delusions of Churchill aside he still has to either get this through on the 31st oand then deal with the aftermath which will be swift and crippling, or fail to get it through and get slaughtered at the ballot box.

Easily going to be the shortest lived PM I reckon.

No he is stupid, stupidly arrogant and ignorant of the realities of the situation, he also completely believes his own hype and PR and that his bluster and bluffing can wrangle him through any situation, just look at some of the videos available of him when he was Mayor of London and before the London Assembly for an example of what he is likely to be like when in power as PM

Stop moaning ffs

VinLieger wrote: »

No he is stupid, stupidly arrogant and ignorant of the realities of the situation, he also completely believes his own hype and PR and that his bluster and bluffing can wrangle him through any situation, just look at some of the videos available of him when he was Mayor of London and before the London Assembly for an example of what he is likely to be like when in power as PM

I think that’s all a huge act tbh. The FOT piece I posted earlier sort of agrees. But he is definitely blinded by his own wonderfulness for sure. But not as stupid as he lets on.

Zubeneschamali

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

But he’s not stupid.

He's not stupid, but he is monumentally lazy and irresponsible.


He genuinely thinks he can be a Minister and even Prime Minister the way he does an after dinner speech - no prep, roll out of someone else's bed, tousle his hair and then wing it. Never fails, everyone always laughs and cheers!

Stop moaning ffs

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He's not stupid, but he is monumentally lazy and irresponsible.


He genuinely thinks he can be a Minister and even Prime Minister the way he does an after dinner speech - no prep, roll out of someone else's bed, tousle his hair and then wing it. Never fails, everyone always laughs and cheers!

Two days in the Pm job will be all that’s needed to expose him to all.
The Tories fell for the clown act. The entire uk will not under any circumstances

Seth Brundle

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He genuinely thinks he can be a Minister and even Prime Minister the way he does an after dinner speech - no prep, roll out of someone else's bed, tousle his hair and then wing it. Never fails, everyone always laughs and cheers!

That approach has worked for him in every other job he has been employed in.

lawred2

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Two days in the Pm job will be all that’s needed to expose him to all.
The Tories fell for the clown act. The entire uk will not under any circumstances

I think the UK has proven itself well adept at swallowing any amount of bullsh!t. Do you not think so?

Strazdas

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I think that’s all a huge act tbh. The FOT piece I posted earlier sort of agrees. But he is definitely blinded by his own wonderfulness for sure. But not as stupid as he lets on.

I'm not so sure. I've heard several good analysts say he is nowhere near as clever as he lets on, is lazy and has poor attention to detail.

They say he hides all of this behind his massive ego and self confidence and tries to give the impression to everyone he is an intellectual colossus.

Stop moaning ffs

lawred2 wrote: »

I think the UK has proven itself well adept at swallowing any amount of bullsh!t. Do you not think so?

Well he’s screwed in either scenario.
Say he gets no deal through. Short lived bump of approval for delivering brexit. Then he has to accept responsibility for all that comes after.

Fails to get it through, fails to drop the backstop and make the Eu bend to his will etc etc he has to then take responsibility for that.
He’ll spin and bluster and waffle but he’s screwed in either scenario.

Water John

All the panellists on This Week BBC last night agreed that it would be TM's Deal dressed up. That will be by way of fleshing out the Political Declaration that is attached to the WA, as indicated by Anglea Merkel.

lawred2

What is stopping him dropping some of TM's stupidly limiting red lines?

Stop moaning ffs

lawred2 wrote: »

What is stopping him dropping some of TM's stupidly limiting red lines?

I would hope he’d agree to the border in the sea and special status that’s on offer for NI. Only the DUP feel threatened and objecting to that.
Their British identity threatened so easily by some livestock in transit.
You couldn’t make it up.

Sam Russell

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I would hope he’d agree to the border in the sea and special status that’s on offer for NI. Only the DUP feel threatened and objecting to that.
Their British identity threatened so easily by some livestock in transit.
You couldn’t make it up.

Would the DUP be able to keep their blood red lines if faced with the threat of (1) a border poll, or (2) an assembly election called now, or (3) a recalculation of the UK subvention to NI.

I am not sure which would be worse. Perhaps he could do all three.

Stop moaning ffs

Sam Russell wrote: »

Would the DUP be able to keep their blood red lines if faced with the threat of (1) a border poll, or (2) an assembly election called now, or (3) a recalculation of the UK subvention to NI.

I am not sure which would be worse. Perhaps he could do all three.

It sounds like tin foil hat stuff but there’s been a lot of stuff in sequence quite quickly that suggests a border poll is being organised through back channels.
The marriage equality and abortion amendments going through parliament effectively FU DUP
Coveney meeting regularly with SoS in NI
HSE being broken back down into regional health boards.

Whatever way this all shakes out the DUP are going to be punished by Johnson and the Tories or whatever coalition forms after the next GE.

Matter of time before the tabloids in tandem turn the focus onto any fo we spend £11 billion a year of NI too.

The whole of NI wants the backstop apart from the DUP. They’re ignoring their main backers who have withdrawn support apparently.

Events are moving on without the DUP owing to their intransigence and they’ll s on be made to suffer. And that’s exactly what’s they deserve.

They’re holding this whole show up and Johnson especially won’t think twice about sacrificing them because he knows even if they’re pull support he’ll have delivered brexit and it’ll see him reinstalled as pm post brexit

Water John

Johnson losing the DUP could continue with a minority Govn't. It would require all others to align to bring it down.

Zubeneschamali

Water John wrote: »

Johnson losing the DUP could continue with a minority Govn't. It would require all others to align to bring it down.

Not only would all the others line up, Johnson will lose tens of Tories if he goes for No Deal.

trellheim

Boris Johnson is teflon

He remained Foreign Secretary until he resigned, remember - he was not pushed out or fired.


This despite an atrocious performance in the job, and in his own constituency of Uxbridge being elected on opposition to a 3rd Heathrow runway eloping to Afghanistan on the day of said runway vote.

Yet he remains MP.

Boris will like trump, be the bad smell we cant get rid of.

Inquitus

So the winner will be announced on the 23rd July, which is Tues of next week, voting closes on the 22nd and then counting begins. Interesting times, interesting times.......

BluePlanet

Sam Russell wrote: »

Would the DUP be able to keep their blood red lines if faced with the threat of (1) a border poll, or (2) an assembly election called now, or (3) a recalculation of the UK subvention to NI.

I am not sure which would be worse. Perhaps he could do all three.

I think we are underestimating the tribal loyalties at play here.

While a few Tories have suggested threatening Ireland over the border, i have yet to hear one threaten the DUP as you suggest, despite that you correctly point out they have some leverage there.

20silkcut

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It sounds like tin foil hat stuff but there’s been a lot of stuff in sequence quite quickly that suggests a border poll is being organised through back channels.
The marriage equality and abortion amendments going through parliament effectively FU DUP
Coveney meeting regularly with SoS in NI
HSE being broken back down into regional health boards.

Whatever way this all shakes out the DUP are going to be punished by Johnson and the Tories or whatever coalition forms after the next GE.

Matter of time before the tabloids in tandem turn the focus onto any fo we spend £11 billion a year of NI too.

The whole of NI wants the backstop apart from the DUP. They’re ignoring their main backers who have withdrawn support apparently.

Events are moving on without the DUP owing to their intransigence and they’ll s on be made to suffer. And that’s exactly what’s they deserve.

They’re holding this whole show up and Johnson especially won’t think twice about sacrificing them because he knows even if they’re pull support he’ll have delivered brexit and it’ll see him reinstalled as pm post brexit

Scotland would like some of that backstop too I’m sure. It’s more remain than NI. How would you placate them.
The EU would have to refuse to recognize or foster any push for Scottish independence as part of the deal??

Lackadaisical

Well, if Catalonia's anything to go by, the EU isn't likely to foster or recognise Scottish independence unless the UK does.

The situation with Northern Ireland's quite unique as it's basically one of the success stories of the EU in dealing with physical conflict. It's far from a normal region and that's why the EU was willing to make major concessions to allowing some kind of special customs status. The DUP effectively turned their noses up at that and drew 'blood red lines', hence the problem with the UK-wide Backstop.

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

Johnson losing the DUP could continue with a minority Govn't. It would require all others to align to bring it down.

You mean like they did in multiple votes ?

There's Tories who'd vote against the whip so it doesn't need all others.
Safe seat Tories don't have to worry about getting re-elected.


Labour could buy the SNP by offering independence.

Northern Ireland is 10 votes against them, vs maybe one for, and the SDLP took down a labour government before so reunification works for Labour. And for the Tories who feel £10Bn a year could be spent better.