Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

Labour has a number of MP's that will vote for Brexit, and thus for Johnson.

Leroy42

I see Piers Morgan is out ranting again claiming that a major flaw with TM and Brexit was in failure to prepare for no deal.

Paraphrasing a bit but basically he said 'everyone knows that in a negotiation you need to be prepared to walk away'

But this is nonsense. Its like going into a pay review meeting and walking away with no job because they wouldn't give you a pay rise. It sounds great and you feel great, until the next day when you have no job, no money and a crap reference. And even if you do get a new job, it will have gone from a full time, senior position, pensionable job to a Zero Hours contract.

And as usual, nobody pulls him up on the ignorant nature of his position.

Stop moaning ffs

20silkcut wrote: »

Scotland would like some of that backstop too I’m sure. It’s more remain than NI. How would you placate them.
The EU would have to refuse to recognize or foster any push for Scottish independence as part of the deal??

Eu would not encourage or even mention Scotland and it’s push for independence. That’s an internal matter. NI has been guarahteed it has automatic entry into the EU in case of either remaining in the customs and single market or reunification post border poll.
Not so the case for Scotland. It would have to probably go through the usual stress tests and process to join, Spain has said it would have no objection to it joining avoiding the whole Catalonia debate within Spain.

Valhallapt

I hope the WA is signed off, but I’m more and more happy to accept a no deal and let Ireland finally free of its over dependence on Britain.

Is there any thread on here dealing with the practicalities of a no deal Brexit. I know there was a discussion a fair bit back about new ferry routes, but seeing as we are overly dependent on imports via Britain, something like 25%, what is the break down on this, is a lot of it tesco/ Argos lorries or is it mainly raw goods or is it some other mix??

Looking at the shelves of my local Dunnes stores is full of British made goods, what’s the plan in a no deal hope the goods eventually come via the customs checks?? It would be interesting to see supermarkets come together around certain brand replacements e.g. we know you love mcvities choc chip, but thanks the brexit we’ve upgraded this to LU choc chip etc etc Or is it more simple than that, bringing in head and shoulders via France instead of U.K.?

Lackadaisical

A lot of processed food products would be potentially impacted, and you'd be looking at either finding like-for-like replacements with Irish or other EU equivalents e.g. I don't think we'll be short of good pasta sauces and so on, but you'll have a few that are UK-specific like curry sauces for example, where we will probably just end up paying import duties and seeing higher prices.

Most fresh fruit and veg definitely don't come from the UK, almost no meat does and the majority of dairy is local, with a few exceptions around things like yogurts.

The vast majority of non-food items e.g. household cleaners, shampoos etc are definitely not made in the UK. If you look at the barcodes on the back you won't see many 50... codes and most of them are made by big multinationals or global operators like P&G, Unilever, Reckitt-Benkeiser, Coltage-Pamolive, L'Oreal, Beiersdorf, Henkel etc etc a lot of those products are made on the continent and just distributed via the UK.

Even some products that are nominally made in the UK may only be localised / packaged there.

If you take something like Ariel Liquid or Pods, the country of origin is France, even though you'll get a lot of people assuming they're British products.

Head and Shoulders is also made in France (just checked). So you should be dandruff free after Brexit.

The most at-risk products for tariffs are almost all highly processed foods like biscuits, sauces etc. Also the Irish market is the UK's largest food export destination by a country mile. It's a far more significant market to them than say China and this will have serious implications for jobs in quite a few UK industries. They have a bit of a false assumption that the relationship is all one way i.e. Ireland exporting to the UK. Trade very much flows both directions and as an export market, due to proximity, we are very significant to UK business.

The Irish supermarkets are also not insignificantly sized and should be able to switch over to continental supply chains for a lot of products quite quickly. That alone will have massive implications in Britain as suppliers lose literally billions of £ of sales overnight.

Stop moaning ffs

A nuts and boots break down of the ordinary day to day stuff that will become more expensive or unavailable would be good.
I can’t think of any but I’m sure there’s a boat load

Lackadaisical

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

A nuts and boots break down of the ordinary day to day stuff that will become more expensive or unavailable would be good.
I can’t think of any but I’m sure there’s a boat load

I think you'll see initial inertia and attempts to hike prices by some lazier retailers but they'll have the floor wiped with them by retailers who are capable of shopping around.

I also wouldn't worry that much about Tesco being British owned. It's a major supermarket chain in its own right in Ireland and would be quite capable of operating independently of the UK mothership.

Retailers aren't going to make massive and costly changes to supply chains though until they see hard-Brexit as an inevitability and I think even then you'll see some who will act too late.

E.g. I have no idea how M&S Ireland will survive, certainly on their food products as they're potentially all going to be behind a tariff barrier as they basically import almost everything from the UK. They'd probably be OK on non-food items and clothing though as most of that's not made in the UK.

However, your average generic supermarket here should be OK once they retune things a bit. Most of the fashion retailers and so on are also capable of just moving Ireland into the Benelux or French region or something like that for supply. The majority of them have presence around Europe, not just in the UK.

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

Labour has a number of MP's that will vote for Brexit, and thus for Johnson.

From what i've read there are somewhere in the region of 5-6 Labour mps who could support Johnson in a vote of confidence and thus help the no deal cause. Kate Hoey is an absolute cert and Sarah Champion and Caroline Flint have both hinted at it. I've heard Denis Skinners name mentioned too, but we're surely plunging through the deepest rabbit hole to imagine the beast of so many hard left battles of the past voting to help prop up a right wing tory eton oxbridge bumpkin. I just cant see that, but in this climate you never know.

On the other side, i'm wager you could hang your hat on Guto Bebb voting to take the pm down if he gets the chance. He's retiring, hates brexit, hates Johnson even more so he'll vote no confidence with relish. Dominic Grieve wont be found wanting either and I'd suspect Margot James (though in a 70% Leave voting constituency) will stay the course as well. When it comes down to it, i'd definitely fancy more Conservatives rebelling than Labour.

Johnson could avoid the risk of avoiding a humiliating defeat by calling an early election. Think this must be a definite possibility now.

Indestructable

Just have to give credit to our own politicians who have played a blinder on Brexit so far. Credit to Simon Coveney and Helen Mcentee today again.
They may be average enough on home issues but they honestly have done us proud in these horrific negotiations so far.

Bit cynical

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see Piers Morgan is out ranting again claiming that a major flaw with TM and Brexit was in failure to prepare for no deal.

Paraphrasing a bit but basically he said 'everyone knows that in a negotiation you need to be prepared to walk away'

But this is nonsense. Its like going into a pay review meeting and walking away with no job because they wouldn't give you a pay rise.

I'm not sure that makes sense. Walking away with no job if the negotiation fails is more like not preparing for no deal. The correct analogy of full preparation for no deal would be having an alternative job lined up.


Piers Morgan is correct. You do need to be fully prepared for the situation where the deal falls through. Otherwise you don't have leverage and your counterparts can take advantage.

Spanish Eyes

So a diversion appears in a timely fashion.

UK OIL tanker seized by Iran earlier. I wonder what the fallout from that will be. Nothing or something for new PM to divert attention away from No Deal?

Valhallapt

Lackadaisical wrote: »

A lot of processed food products would be potentially impacted, and you'd be looking at either finding like-for-like replacements with Irish or other EU equivalents e.g. I don't think we'll be short of good pasta sauces and so on, but you'll have a few that are UK-specific like curry sauces for example, where we will probably just end up paying import duties and seeing higher prices.

Most fresh fruit and veg definitely don't come from the UK, almost no meat does and the majority of dairy is local, with a few exceptions around things like yogurts.

The vast majority of non-food items e.g. household cleaners, shampoos etc are definitely not made in the UK. If you look at the barcodes on the back you won't see many 50... codes and most of them are made by big multinationals or global operators like P&G, Unilever, Reckitt-Benkeiser, Coltage-Pamolive, L'Oreal, Beiersdorf, Henkel etc etc a lot of those products are made on the continent and just distributed via the UK.

Even some products that are nominally made in the UK may only be localised / packaged there.

If you take something like Ariel Liquid or Pods, the country of origin is France, even though you'll get a lot of people assuming they're British products.

Head and Shoulders is also made in France (just checked). So you should be dandruff free after Brexit.

The most at-risk products for tariffs are almost all highly processed foods like biscuits, sauces etc. Also the Irish market is the UK's largest food export destination by a country mile. It's a far more significant market to them than say China and this will have serious implications for jobs in quite a few UK industries. They have a bit of a false assumption that the relationship is all one way i.e. Ireland exporting to the UK. Trade very much flows both directions and as an export market, due to proximity, we are very significant to UK business.

The Irish supermarkets are also not insignificantly sized and should be able to switch over to continental supply chains for a lot of products quite quickly. That alone will have massive implications in Britain as suppliers lose literally billions of £ of sales overnight.

Very informative thank you.

Valhallapt

Lackadaisical wrote: »

A lot of processed food products would be potentially impacted, and you'd be looking at either finding like-for-like replacements with Irish or other EU equivalents e.g. I don't think we'll be short of good pasta sauces and so on, but you'll have a few that are UK-specific like curry sauces for example, where we will probably just end up paying import duties and seeing higher prices.

Most fresh fruit and veg definitely don't come from the UK, almost no meat does and the majority of dairy is local, with a few exceptions around things like yogurts.

The vast majority of non-food items e.g. household cleaners, shampoos etc are definitely not made in the UK. If you look at the barcodes on the back you won't see many 50... codes and most of them are made by big multinationals or global operators like P&G, Unilever, Reckitt-Benkeiser, Coltage-Pamolive, L'Oreal, Beiersdorf, Henkel etc etc a lot of those products are made on the continent and just distributed via the UK.

Even some products that are nominally made in the UK may only be localised / packaged there.

If you take something like Ariel Liquid or Pods, the country of origin is France, even though you'll get a lot of people assuming they're British products.

Head and Shoulders is also made in France (just checked). So you should be dandruff free after Brexit.

The most at-risk products for tariffs are almost all highly processed foods like biscuits, sauces etc. Also the Irish market is the UK's largest food export destination by a country mile. It's a far more significant market to them than say China and this will have serious implications for jobs in quite a few UK industries. They have a bit of a false assumption that the relationship is all one way i.e. Ireland exporting to the UK. Trade very much flows both directions and as an export market, due to proximity, we are very significant to UK business.

The Irish supermarkets are also not insignificantly sized and should be able to switch over to continental supply chains for a lot of products quite quickly. That alone will have massive implications in Britain as suppliers lose literally billions of £ of sales overnight.

Very informative thank you.

Mr.Nice Guy

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

So a diversion appears in a timely fashion.

UK OIL tanker seized by Iran earlier. I wonder what the fallout from that will be. Nothing or something for new PM to divert attention away from No Deal?

I would worry about Johnson's temperament in moments like this. Might he think picking a fight with Iran would be his Thatcher '82 moment and offer a moment of national unity away from Brexit?

Stop moaning ffs

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

So a diversion appears in a timely fashion.

UK OIL tanker seized by Iran earlier. I wonder what the fallout from that will be. Nothing or something for new PM to divert attention away from No Deal?

And trump saying the US has shot down an Iranian drone.

All a bit convenient both sides of the Atlantic.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

From what i've read there are somewhere in the region of 5-6 Labour mps who could support Johnson in a vote of confidence and thus help the no deal cause. Kate Hoey is an absolute cert and Sarah Champion and Caroline Flint have both hinted at it. I've heard Denis Skinners name mentioned too, but we're surely plunging through the deepest rabbit hole to imagine the beast of so many hard left battles of the past voting to help prop up a right wing tory eton oxbridge bumpkin. I just cant see that, but in this climate you never know.

On the other side, i'm wager you could hang your hat on Guto Bebb voting to take the pm down if he gets the chance. He's retiring, hates brexit, hates Johnson even more so he'll vote no confidence with relish. Dominic Grieve wont be found wanting either and I'd suspect Margot James (though in a 70% Leave voting constituency) will stay the course as well. When it comes down to it, i'd definitely fancy more Conservatives rebelling than Labour.

Johnson could avoid the risk of avoiding a humiliating defeat by calling an early election. Think this must be a definite possibility now.

I cannot imagine that any Labour MPs will have any future in the party if they supported Johnson in a vote of no-confidence. That would be some crazy thinking to go there.

Stop moaning ffs

Choppers brexit podcast from the telegraph is an infuriating but also essential listen.
The delusion seems to snowball and get bigger rather than entering reality at any single talking point.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

I cannot imagine that any Labour MPs will have any future in the party if they supported Johnson in a vote of no-confidence. That would be some crazy thinking to go there.

More likely they'd abstain i'd have thought, so they could at least say they didn't actively support Johnson. They're in a pretty bad bind, of course, as by not voting for Brexit they believe they're signing their political death warrants anyway as they're all in heavily pro-leave voting constituencies.

When it comes down to it, i remain confident we'll see more tories choosing country over party than labour mps choosing their own careers over their party. Only needs a small handful and Johnson would be toast.

Beechwoodspark

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Choppers brexit podcast from the telegraph is an infuriating but also essential listen.
The delusion seems to snowball and get bigger rather than entering reality at any single talking point.

Have they realized yet that they are very much the weak party in the negotiation?

Spanish Eyes

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I would worry about Johnson's temperament in moments like this. Might he think picking a fight with Iran would be his Thatcher '82 moment and offer a moment of national unity away from Brexit?

The Falkland did come to mind when I heard this.

Let’s see how it develops. The current FS Hunt will be gone by Wednesday with his insider knowledge up to now.

I wouldn’t rate Johnson as previous incumbent. He is quite volatile.

Beechwoodspark

My read on BJ is he always takes the soft easy option.

Lackadaisical

I wonder if this crisis in Iran could now potentially May's departure? It seems a very inopportune moment to be mid-PM.
(A 2nd vessel has been taken)

blanch152

Lackadaisical wrote: »

A lot of processed food products would be potentially impacted, and you'd be looking at either finding like-for-like replacements with Irish or other EU equivalents e.g. I don't think we'll be short of good pasta sauces and so on, but you'll have a few that are UK-specific like curry sauces for example, where we will probably just end up paying import duties and seeing higher prices.

Most fresh fruit and veg definitely don't come from the UK, almost no meat does and the majority of dairy is local, with a few exceptions around things like yogurts.

The vast majority of non-food items e.g. household cleaners, shampoos etc are definitely not made in the UK. If you look at the barcodes on the back you won't see many 50... codes and most of them are made by big multinationals or global operators like P&G, Unilever, Reckitt-Benkeiser, Coltage-Pamolive, L'Oreal, Beiersdorf, Henkel etc etc a lot of those products are made on the continent and just distributed via the UK.

Even some products that are nominally made in the UK may only be localised / packaged there.

If you take something like Ariel Liquid or Pods, the country of origin is France, even though you'll get a lot of people assuming they're British products.

Head and Shoulders is also made in France (just checked). So you should be dandruff free after Brexit.

The most at-risk products for tariffs are almost all highly processed foods like biscuits, sauces etc. Also the Irish market is the UK's largest food export destination by a country mile. It's a far more significant market to them than say China and this will have serious implications for jobs in quite a few UK industries. They have a bit of a false assumption that the relationship is all one way i.e. Ireland exporting to the UK. Trade very much flows both directions and as an export market, due to proximity, we are very significant to UK business.

The Irish supermarkets are also not insignificantly sized and should be able to switch over to continental supply chains for a lot of products quite quickly. That alone will have massive implications in Britain as suppliers lose literally billions of £ of sales overnight.

Would there be a one-off inflationary impact from getting new sources of supply?

Surely, if purchasing and shipping from other destinations was cheaper, then we would be doing it already. That means any likely alternatives are bound to be dearer, even if only by small amounts.

looksee

Tesco do a lot of own brand though, which presumably is at least packed in the UK. If they have to pay to bring it into Ireland could they realistically compete? M&S food has deteriorated imo, and it is expensive so maybe the writing is on the wall for them anyway.

Water John

EU willing to give an interesting ext. Johnson can sell it as preparing for exit, EU as further negotiations.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/19/brussels-to-offer-boris-johnson-extension-on-no-deal-brexit

Lackadaisical

blanch152 wrote: »

Would there be a one-off inflationary impact from getting new sources of supply?

Surely, if purchasing and shipping from other destinations was cheaper, then we would be doing it already. That means any likely alternatives are bound to be dearer, even if only by small amounts.

There might / might not be. I'm hearing some businesses that are actually finding better and cheaper products on the continent. They hadn't around before. There's a lot of ending of inertia.

Some products might see prices go up and other products may still just continue to come in from the UK, particularly if sterling collapses, as they'll be relatively cheap, even with tarrifs.

There are a lot of variables, so it's very hard to really say if there'll be significant inflation.

Capt'n Midnight

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Most fresh fruit and veg definitely don't come from the UK, almost no meat does and the majority of dairy is local, with a few exceptions around things like yogurts.

A lot of meat and dairy comes from the North. But it's a two way trade so not that bad.


Here the grocery trade is
Two ninths each
Dunnes 23%
Tesco 21.6%
Supervalu 21.3%

One ninth each
Aldi 11.2%
Lidl 11%
Others 11.9%

As others have posted all apart from Marks and Spencer can easily change to non-UK suppliers. Heavy, perishable stuff like milk and fruit and veg are usually sourced locally. Many brand name goods have different lines made in different countries. Some will change price more than others across the range.

10000maniacs

That annoying brexiter whinger Tom Harwood is back on Newsnight predicting that the EU are going to cave into British demands to scrap the backstop because Boris is leaving no deal on the table. Why do the BBC keep getting these guys on?

Headshot

10000maniacs wrote: »

That annoying brexiter whinger Tom Harwood is back on Newsnight predicting that the EU are going to cave into British demands to scrap the backstop because Boris is leaving no deal on the table. Why do the BBC keep getting these guys on?

Yup cannot stand the man, peddles so much ****e and lies

I'm happy he didnt get much air time but why the BBC even have the likes of him in the panel says alot about brexiters as a whole

I'm confident at this stage that the EU would goodbye to the UK and let them rot than caving in

I think the EU is well prepared for a no deal and yes it will hurt Ireland alot but our EU friends will help us

Strazdas

Have a look at who Johnson is preparing to give a big cabinet job to :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

Looks like the cabinet announcement will have maximum comedy potential given some of the rumoured names