Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

10000maniacs

Yeah, the BBC journalists are probably so sick of Brexit they want it sorted, deal or no deal. They have picked their horse and it ain't remain.

Strazdas

10000maniacs wrote: »

That annoying brexiter whinger Tom Harwood is back on Newsnight predicting that the EU are going to cave into British demands to scrap the backstop because Boris is leaving no deal on the table. Why do the BBC keep getting these guys on?

Given that Johnson's cabinet and negotiating team looks like it will be even worse and more inept than May's one, I would say the chances of the EU offering them any major concessions are absolutely zero.

Water John

Yeah, it looks like the UK will have left by the 31st Oct, but not really. Schrodinger cat comes to mind.

10000maniacs

Strazdas wrote: »

Have a look at who Johnson is preparing to give a big cabinet job to :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

Looks like the cabinet announcement will have maximum comedy potential given some of the rumoured names

David Davis's Brexit manifesto.
"Our trade will almost certainly continue with the EU on similar to current circumstances. In the highly improbable event that it will not, we can accommodate that with domestic policies using the money released by Brexit, the independence dividend.”

54and56

Strazdas wrote: »

Have a look at who Johnson is preparing to give a big cabinet job to :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

Looks like the cabinet announcement will have maximum comedy potential given some of the rumoured names

Please let him get the Chancellor job. Nothing bites harder or faster than financial reality.

Stop moaning ffs

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Have they realized yet that they are very much the weak party in the negotiation?

Absolutely not. But it’s glaring how the language being used has changed and the declamatory statements of easy glorious victory are no longer present.

ancapailldorcha

Topnotch, please read the charter before posting here again.

Call me Al

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Absolutely not. But it’s glaring how the language being used has changed and the declamatory statements of easy glorious victory are no longer present.

I think such was their lack of understanding and inflated level of self-belief they fully believed they'd get their cake when they started out in this process.

But when i hear David Davis spouting on about them needing to believe enough I think the penny has dropped with him. That's where the rhetoric has arrived at. Deep down he knows they are not in control of a destiny to anything positive. That choice is out of their hands. They can only pull the plug that brings them over a cliff.
He just can't bring himself to say it. British stiff upper lip and all that nonsense.

amacca

Call me Al wrote: »

I think such was their lack of understanding and inflated level of self-belief they fully believed they'd get their cake when they started out in this process.

But when i hear David Davis spouting on about them needing to believe enough I think the penny has dropped with him. That's where the rhetoric has arrived at. Deep down he knows they are not in control of a destiny to anything positive. That choice is out of their hands. They can only pull the plug that brings them over a cliff.
He just can't bring himself to say it. British stiff upper lip and all that nonsense.

A significant proportion of the population might be that insular (hence brexit) but I'd have a hard time believing most of those politicians can't smell their own so to speak.

I think some might sniff personal opportunity in Brexit if they could precipitate it (either in a business sense or political ambition) but most of them realised from the start the position they were in ..... or should I say the position those less fortunate than them would be in, they'll never get the brunt of the economic consequences of brexit

It's a bubble where their personal pockets/lives don't stand to be impacted not one where their brains have completely ceased to function.

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

Have a look at who Johnson is preparing to give a big cabinet job to :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

Looks like the cabinet announcement will have maximum comedy potential given some of the rumoured names

Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall.

If the new cabinet does not have places for remain minded Tories, they will find places for themselves in opposition from either the Gov bench or they will cross the floor of the house.

Reality means either the new PM realises this or the new PM will very soon become the previous PM.

The Iran business might actually intervene and give TM a little more time.

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall.

If the new cabinet does not have places for remain minded Tories, they will find places for themselves in opposition from either the Gov bench or they will cross the floor of the house.

Reality means either the new PM realises this or the new PM will very soon become the previous PM.

The Iran business might actually intervene and give TM a little more time.

The article speaks of David Davis as Foreign Secretary or Chancellor and a big Treasury job for Rees-Mogg.

A Shropshire Lad

Interestingly the markets are favouring a General Election to happen before Brexit happens
I wonder where a General Election in the UK would leave Brexit now. There would almost certainly be no overall majority party, so a coalition of chaos probably, with no nearer end in sight to the Brexit saga.

Joe_ Public

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Interestingly the markets are favouring a General Election to happen before Brexit happens
I wonder where a General Election in the UK would leave Brexit now. There would almost certainly be no overall majority party, so a coalition of chaos probably, with no nearer end in sight to the Brexit saga.

Early GE looks unavoidable to me anyway, unless Johnson has some trick up his sleeve which i doubt. Its hardly a great choice for the hard brexiteers, but what good choices do they have anyway? They're always telling us about Johnson the great campaigner who is the only one who can save the party, so lets see him get out there and earn his spurs.

Stop moaning ffs

Does it happen by default if there’s no majority ?

Strazdas

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Does it happen by default if there’s no majority ?

Not by default, no....I believe a PM has to actually call a GE, it cannot happen unless he / she does so

Leroy42

Johnsons cabinet will be made up entirely of Brexiteers. TM, badly, tried the both sides approach and the cabinet tore itself apart. All the key positions at the very least will be hard Brexiteers.

Mainly because that is where Johnson has got his support from.

I do find it rather fascinating the comments from EU leaders the last few days. Nothing actually any different from before, but leaving more room for interpretation. IMO the EU are seeing the political mood in the UK, seeing that Johnson basically promised to Brexit by 31 Oct but HoC also getting ready to fight No Deal, and are looking for a way to give Johnson a 'Win' that he can sell.

Of course it won't fundamentally change anything but it gives Johnson the appearance of getting something whilst avoiding No Deal.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

I do find it rather fascinating the comments from EU leaders the last few days. Nothing actually any different from before, but leaving more room for interpretation. IMO the EU are seeing the political mood in the UK, seeing that Johnson basically promised to Brexit by 31 Oct but HoC also getting ready to fight No Deal, and are looking for a way to give Johnson a 'Win' that he can sell.

You could look at it that way, or they could be motivating Remain/Soft Brexiters to get their act together and give Johnson the instant heave-ho.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

Johnsons cabinet will be made up entirely of Brexiteers. TM, badly, tried the both sides approach and the cabinet tore itself apart. All the key positions at the very least will be hard Brexiteers.

Mainly because that is where Johnson has got his support from.

I do find it rather fascinating the comments from EU leaders the last few days. Nothing actually any different from before, but leaving more room for interpretation. IMO the EU are seeing the political mood in the UK, seeing that Johnson basically promised to Brexit by 31 Oct but HoC also getting ready to fight No Deal, and are looking for a way to give Johnson a 'Win' that he can sell.

Of course it won't fundamentally change anything but it gives Johnson the appearance of getting something whilst avoiding No Deal.

A hard Brexit government may not be the nirvana that Leave voters imagine. They are rapidly running out of time and options and there might be no hiding place for a government full of hard Brexiteers.

beggars_bush

Labour under almost any other leader would have a great chance of ousting the Tories

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You could look at it that way, or they could be motivating Remain/Soft Brexiters to get their act together and give Johnson the instant heave-ho.

What would be the point of that? Getting rid of Johnson won't change anything really, just like TM wasn't fundamentally the problem.

Strazdas wrote: »

A hard Brexit government may not be the nirvana that Leave voters imagine. They are rapidly running out of time and options and there might be no hiding place for a government full of hard Brexiteers.

But they do not see it like that. They feel that TM never really believed, was never truly on board and only sees the negatives. So getting the right people in place will sort everything out.

How many times have they said that people simply need to believe, need to be positive?

Leroy42

beggars_bush wrote: »

Labour under almost any other leader would have a great chance of ousting the Tories

Under any other leader would be trounching the Tories. It would be a repeat of the Blair lead in, basically the country would be crying out to be rid of them.

Stop moaning ffs

Strazdas wrote: »

Not by default, no....I believe a PM has to actually call a GE, it cannot happen unless he / she does so

Sorry I meant brexit.
Will it just happen on the 31st if they don’t have a majority govt or election?

Water John

Not if Parliament doesn't want No Deal to happen. Don't think HOC can order the PM but he would be nuts not to heed Parliament.

Strazdas

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Sorry I meant brexit.
Will it just happen on the 31st if they don’t have a majority govt or election?

Oh Brexit itself.....well that is the default, yes. The only way an extension can happen is if the UK requests one, otherwise the UK automatically falls out on October 31.

Seth Brundle

Water John wrote: »

Not if Parliament doesn't want No Deal to happen. Don't think HOC can order the PM but he would be nuts not to heed Parliament.

Brexit will happen unless the UK asks and receives an extension or they revoke Art 50. Doesn't have that much to do with what parliament does or says.

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

A hard Brexit government may not be the nirvana that Leave voters imagine. They are rapidly running out of time and options and there might be no hiding place for a government full of hard Brexiteers.

And what will all those 'Remain' Tory MPs do when they have no say at cabinet?

My guess is "Heave ho!".

How many of them have had a quiet word in TM's ear?

20silkcut

Leroy42 wrote: »

How many times have they said that people simply need to believe, need to be positive?

Wasn’t that what leaders of the communist world used to say in the latter half of the 20th century.
Hopefully brexit doesn’t take as long as the communist myth took to be debunked.

Joe_ Public

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Brexit will happen unless the UK asks and receives an extension or they revoke Art 50. Doesn't have that much to do with what parliament does or says.

Well, parliament could politely dictate to the PM to request an extension or face the alternative of a vote of confidence so i'm not sure it doesnt have much to do with them to be honest. Problem with that is the "good reason" requirement for that extension to be granted, but thats something they'd have to work out when the time comes. Cant see its as simple as the clock just ticking down to no deal, lot to be played out between now and then.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

To me the UK are looking like they are really over playing their hand right now.

Last week they were talking smack to China over Hong Kong. They are now getting into further issues with Iran. Not having a working withdrawal agreement over Brexit with France and Germany. Johnson calling our Taoiseach a Murphy. Where does it stop?

They really do have that colonial mindset drilled into them from childhood.

They are so heavily reliant on London's financial sector. Without it they will be a backwater. Yet they are behaving like a global superpower.

trellheim

An interesting article you may see being spun almost immediately the new PM is chosen - is the lack of time requiring an extension to be called for.

Some "important thing" will arise that demands an extension, and thus "leave on 31 October" will be consigned to the dustbin. The lack of hard press on this beyond Johnson's blustering is interesting in its own right. I am watching the Brexiteers - the hard ones - like a hawk on this, and it may well be the case that this is the way forward for them.


"Will you resign if the UK does not leave on 31 October" is not being answered