Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

FartyBlartFast

If the UK ask for another extension, the EU need to tell them where to go.

I would bet every single last thing in this world that I own that, were another extension to be granted... Let say to Feb 1, 2020, that come late January 2020 the brits will use it to... Do absolutely sweet f'ck all, and will then ask for another.

We're the EU to continue to grant them, the brits would happily continue on like this for years, if not decades. It's time to call a spade a spade and kick them out on Oct 31st, if a deal has not been worked out, no matter what. It will hurt short term, but we are at a point where a line has to be drawn in the sand.

maynooth_rules

Such a sad thing to see in the UK is how rudderless Labour have been when presented with an open goal. Corbyn has been a bloody disgrace.

Bit cynical

FartyBlartFast wrote: »

If the UK ask for another extension, the EU need to tell them where to go.

I would bet every single last thing in this world that I own that, were another extension to be granted... Let say to Feb 1, 2020, that come late January 2020 the brits will use it to... Do absolutely sweet f'ck all, and will then ask for another.

We're the EU to continue to grant them, the brits would happily continue on like this for years, if not decades. It's time to call a spade a spade and kick them out on Oct 31st, if a deal has not been worked out, no matter what. It will hurt short term, but we are at a point where a line has to be drawn in the sand.

In fairness the EU have extended the offer of an extension recently.

Commission President: "I stand ready for further extension of the withdrawal date should more time be required for a good reason."

Headshot

I hope the UK asks for an extension, it would be a laughable climb down from Boris and the Brexiters will be out for blood

Spanish Eyes

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Such a sad thing to see in the UK is how rudderless Labour have been when presented with an open goal. Corbyn has been a bloody disgrace.

Correct, I just cannot understand it re the Corbyn led LP now.

But they do not represent my country.

Strazdas

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Such a sad thing to see in the UK is how rudderless Labour have been when presented with an open goal. Corbyn has been a bloody disgrace.

An utter disaster of a politician. A strong opposition leader would probably have brought Brexit down by this stage (given that it is an obvious shambles and a failed project). For Corbyn to go AWOL while this fiasco has been unfolding is mind boggling.

Spanish Eyes

Headshot wrote: »

I hope the UK asks for an extension, it would be a laughable climb down from Boris and the Brexiters will be out for blood

I think I read elsewhere (true or not) that EU has offered a five year hiatus for UK to plan for Leave.

Three plus years gone in the process already though.

A Dub in Glasgo

Bit cynical wrote: »

Commission President: "I stand ready for further extension of the withdrawal date should more time be required for a good reason."

That is the future Commission President who only starts after current Brexit date therefore it will be the current team and the EU27 governments who decide on any extension. I am sure she will be involved but it is not her decision

A Shropshire Lad

Dont underestimate Johnson. The buffoonery is a bit of an act at times anyway. One journalist who has been following his campaign trail noted how Boris would ruffle his hair before going on camera to give it that slightly unkempt look. His off the cuff remarks, which may seem spontanious at times, can be very deliberate.
He has done many things people said he couldnt do, like become a Tory mayor of London, a Labour city. He will almost certainly become prime minister, people said that was not going to happen either.

Bit cynical

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Dont underestimate Johnson. The buffoonery is a bit of an act at times anyway. One journalist who has been following his campaign trail noted how Boris would ruffle his hair before going on camera to give it that slightly unkempt look. His off the cuff remarks, which may seem spontanious at times, can be very deliberate.
He has done many things people said he couldnt do, like become a Tory mayor of London, a Labour city. He will almost certainly become prime minister, people said that was not going to happen either.

I think it was possibly the same journalist who said that Johnson would turn up at events, ask what the event was about, scribble two words on a piece of paper and then deliver an apparently flawless off the cuff speech. The only problem is that exactly the same speech with exactly the same pauses and mistakes would be delivered at the next event

Kermit.de.frog

Simon Coveney has written an article in the Sunday Times indicating Ireland is prepared to compromise according to the UK version of the paper.

reslfj

Bit cynical wrote: »

Commission President: "I stand ready for further extension of the withdrawal date should more time be required for a good reason."

Note UvdL said " required for a good reason"

The EU-Commission President is Juncker until Nov 1. Ursula von der Leyen - quoted above - is not in office before that.

But the main point is that an extension is not at all granted by the EU Commission, but by the EU Council - the 27 PMs - unanimously. I.e. all 27 countries must agree . and that is by no means given.

There seem to be two schools of strategy in Brussels and among the 27 EU27 members.

1. Extend and extend again until the UK ratifies the WA or revokes A50.
   
2. If we end up with a 'No Deal', let's get it over with ASAP and just wait until the UK 'comes home begging' for a deal (of which the WA text will be chapter one)

Point 1 is supported by the UK's total waste of the time provided by the current extension and the total delusion of Johnson and Hunt in relation to the WA.
Merkel on Brexit: 'The Withdrawal Agreement is the Withdrawal Agreement'.

Point 2 is supported by the the much smaller impact of a 'No Deal' Brexit on EU27 countries (excl Ireland before getting EU26 help) than the absolute disaster impact on the UK economy.
Currently pork has very high world market prices (+35/40% last 4-6 months due to Asian Swine Fever in China. The prices are expected to remain high for 2-4 years. The high prices on pork will also 'support' higher prices on other meat products. These higher prices will largely make farming in continental EU immune to a potential loss of some sale of agriculture products to the UK.
Several EU27 members have seen UK production moving the their countries - e.g. cars to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary - and this part of a 'No Deal' Brexit feels 'rather pleasant' for local politicians in these and other nearby countries.

Lars

reslfj

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Simon Coveney has written an article in the Sunday Times indicating Ireland is prepared to compromise according to the UK version of the paper.

In the end it's the EU27 negotiating - not Ireland

Lars

Headshot

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Simon Coveney has written an article in the Sunday Times indicating Ireland is prepared to compromise according to the UK version of the paper.

I'm looking forward to reading it, hopefully someone posts the article here

Leroy42

Ireland, and the EU, have always been willing to compromise. The divorce bill amount, repayment terms, transition period, transition length, access to certain bodies, backstop.

Each and everyone of those is a compromise on the EUs part (and UK tbf).

Listening to all that is going on I am more and more convinced that Brexit will happen by 31 Oct. The EU knows it serves no purpose putting Johnson under possible no confidence territory.

So they will compromise, in as much as changing the wording in the PD can be seen as such. Johnson will claim a victory, but with no time to review it he pushes it to the HoC and Tory and Labour are forced to vote in favour or risk Revoke.

Johnson delivers and then the real work of actually getting back closer happens behind closed doors.

Bit cynical

reslfj wrote: »

In the end it's the EU27 negotiating - not Ireland

Lars

But the other countries of the EU27 are standing behind Ireland, are they not?

J Mysterio

Boris Johnsons diplomacy highlighted again today

Another controversy has erupted after Boris Johnson - who looks set to become British prime minister next week - allegedly made remarks asking why the Taoiseach "isn't called Murphy like all the rest of them".

The comments about Taoiseach Leo Varadkar are said to have been made while Mr Johnson was foreign secretary and are among a series of insults about other EU leaders. Yesterday, UK Labour peer Andrew Adonis said the comments are "deeply depressing" and argued they make Mr Johnson "profoundly unsuitable" to get the keys of 10 Downing Street.

The comments were revealed by 'Financial Times' journalist Philip Stephens who wrote that "such jibes find a way back to foreign capitals".

The article claimed that while he was at the Foreign Office, Mr Johnson was "heard to muse as to whether Chancellor Angela Merkel had served in East Germany's Stasi secret police".

It added that "French President Emmanuel Macron was a 'jumped-up Napoleon'," and "As for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, 'why isn't he called Murphy like all the rest of them?'"

Mr Johnson has a well-documented history of off-colour or controversial remarks. He was criticised last year for saying Muslim women wearing burkas "look like letter boxes" and he reportedly described the French as "turds".

Independent

reslfj

Bit cynical wrote: »

But the other countries of the EU27 are standing behind Ireland, are they not?

It may look that way

But the basic fact is that Ireland has placed itself in front of the collective interests of all the EU27.

As long as Ireland is protecting its fair and vital interests and is acting politically in ways deemed rational, it will very much find that the EU27 is standing behind it.

But don't for a second believe that Ireland is calling the shots.

Lars

Enzokk

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Dont underestimate Johnson. The buffoonery is a bit of an act at times anyway. One journalist who has been following his campaign trail noted how Boris would ruffle his hair before going on camera to give it that slightly unkempt look. His off the cuff remarks, which may seem spontanious at times, can be very deliberate.
He has done many things people said he couldnt do, like become a Tory mayor of London, a Labour city. He will almost certainly become prime minister, people said that was not going to happen either.

I don't know how smart he is or intelligent, but I know he has promised they will leave on the 31st October, with a deal or without. If he doesn't deliver Brexit the Tories are done as a Party for the next election as most of their support will bleed to the Brexit Party, and they will implement a scorched earth policy to the UK to make Brexit happen.

I don't know how anyone with a few brain cells would corner themselves in a situation like this, especially considering he only has a majority of 3 in the HoC as well.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Simon Coveney has written an article in the Sunday Times indicating Ireland is prepared to compromise according to the UK version of the paper.

I wonder how different it will be from this article that was published on Friday.

Withdrawal Agreement not up for renegotiation, says Tánaiste

Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney has said that the EU's position on the Withdrawal Agreement remains unchanged.

He was speaking to reporters following a meeting Michel Barnier, the EU's Chief negotiator. "The Withdrawal Agreement is not up for re-negotiation and both Michel Barnier and I were very clear on that today," he said.

Mr Coveney said that the EU wanted to avoid a no-deal Brexit, but that this was now a matter for the next British Prime Minister.

Most likely, without having read the article, it will be the same as Merkel said that the EU would compromise on the Political Declaration to ensure no-deal doesn't happen. But the PD is not binding so they can say what they want in it, if there is a GE and a new government they will not be bound by what is in the PD, but the WA will be binding.

fly_agaric

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

He has done many things people said he couldnt do, like become a Tory mayor of London, a Labour city. He will almost certainly become prime minister, people said that was not going to happen either.

True. A very weird situation has developed in the UK though.
I don't think someone like that could become PM in "normal" times.
He's getting the job now entirely because of Brexit, and by promising the sun moon & stars to Brexit supporters (MPs and members) in the Conservatives with 0 evidence any of it can be delivered.

I was thinking today the parliament somehow managing to intervene & obstruct no-deal Brexit before Oct 31st (while he does nothing) gets him off the hook.

He could then call general election (maybe request a short extension from EU to hold it?) and say his hands were tied - he had to go to the people for a mandate otherwise the obstreperous MPs would have blocked the Holy Brexit. Maybe that's his hope?

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Simon Coveney has written an article in the Sunday Times indicating Ireland is prepared to compromise according to the UK version of the paper.

Not on the WA. He's merely repeating what he has said before.

Compromising on the backstop would nearly guarantee a hard border in Ireland (what would there to be to stop the UK breaking all links with the EU if there was no backstop in the way?).

A Dub in Glasgo

The Sunday Times article

This week, a new prime minister takes office. As Britain’s closest neighbour, Ireland has a fundamental interest in a successful, prosperous UK. We will work closely with the new prime minister to advance our shared interests, notably safeguarding peace on our island — the single biggest achievement we share with successive British governments.

The Good Friday agreement is an international agreement that supports peace and political stability in Northern Ireland and underpins relationships across our islands. As co-guarantors of the peace deal, it is the shared obligation of our two governments to protect it.

On Wednesday, when the new prime minister takes office, there will be 100 days until the UK leaves the EU after 46 years of membership. The manner in which the UK decides to leave will take shape over that time. The decisions taken by the prime minister will impact the people of the UK and of Ireland.

While the personality in Downing Street will change this week, the facts and complexity relating to Brexit remain the same.

More than two years have gone into negotiating a fair withdrawal agreement to accommodate the UK’s red lines. It includes the backstop, which was designed jointly by the UK and the EU to provide guarantees to protect our shared interests in Northern Ireland.

It’s about avoiding physical infrastructure at the border but also avoiding all related checks and controls, protecting north-south co-operation and the all-island economy. The backstop exists to protect the Good Friday agreement. This was understood by all parties, including the British government and the EU when they jointly agreed it.

Ireland has had one red line since Brexit: nothing should be done to put at risk peace on the island of Ireland. The UK honoured its responsibility by negotiating the backstop as an insurance policy that ensures that a hard border would be avoided and the all-island economy would be protected. The goal on our side remains a future relationship between the EU and the UK that makes the backstop unnecessary.

Britain has decided to leave the EU. Ireland regrets this, but it is a sovereign decision. Ireland is remaining at the heart of the EU and its single market, which also is a sovereign decision.

Nevertheless, if Britain decides to leave without a deal it would cause huge damage to us all. The Irish people understand this and we have spent many months and hundreds of millions of euros in preparing mitigation measures.

Clearly Northern Ireland is more at risk from a no-deal Brexit than any other part of these islands. It is a unique place where people have a birthright to identify themselves as British or Irish or both. Its people did not vote for Brexit. A no-deal Brexit will devastate the Northern Irish economy with tariffs and rules that will fundamentally disrupt the all-island economy upon which so much progress has been built.

There are claims that Northern Ireland won’t be hurt too badly in a no-deal scenario. This contrasts with the measured but sobering warnings of the Northern Ireland civil service that no deal would have a profound and long-lasting impact on the Northern Ireland economy and society.

The recently appointed chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland also warned last week that a hard Brexit would have an “absolutely detrimental” impact on the peace process. Listen to the regional farming and fishing groups, as well as the diverse business lobby in Northern Ireland. They all strongly support the backstop and withdrawal agreement.

As we enter a critical period, where so much is at stake for the people of these two islands, it is important that we are realistic about the impact of decisions on people who have not chosen to leave the EU. The withdrawal agreement is a balanced document that deals with the interests of all parties and is not something that is up for renegotiation.

The Irish government looks forward to meeting and engaging with the new prime minister.

Simon Coveney is Ireland’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister

FrancieBrady

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Sunday Times article

No change there then.


Why am I far too willing to believe scare stories that FG will wilt at the 11th hour though! :(

A Dub in Glasgo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No change there then.


Why am I far too willing to believe scare stories that FG will wilt at the 11th hour though! :(

Not sure how this particular scare story came about

FrancieBrady

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Not sure how this particular scare story came about

Kermit's post seemed to infer that we were offering a compromise on the Backstop/WA.

A Dub in Glasgo

Ahh, I see where it is. The front page of the Sunday Times has an article by Tim Shipman and Caroline Wheeler where they say

In an article today for The Sunday Times, Simon Coveney, Ireland’s deputy prime minister and minister for foreign affairs, indicates that Dublin is prepared to compromise.

Coveney writes that the withdrawal agreement concluded with Theresa May, which includes the controversial Northern Ireland backstop, is “not up for negotiation”. But he also makes clear that his country wants to avoid a no-deal Brexit at all costs.

Did they actually read what Coveny wrote at all? The frenzied comments on that article will be all about now the EU are taking notice and will move to change the WA

https://twitter.com/PeterKGeoghegan/status/1152691049258737665

Water John

The only doc that may be fleshed out is the PD. The latitude may be in letting Johnson say they have left but are entering a transition phase. That phase though supposedly to the end of 2020, could be extended and extended.

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Kermit's post seemed to infer that we were offering a compromise on the Backstop/WA.

The front page of the Times is trying to spin it this way :



The article even speaks of a potential 'bilateral deal' between the UK and Ireland.......complete nonsense of course.

Call me Al

Well if that article doesn't massage the egos of the Brexiteers nothing well.

Rain Ascending

Strazdas wrote: »

The front page of the Times is trying to spin it this way :

The article even speaks of a potential 'bilateral deal' between the UK and Ireland.......complete nonsense of course.

I don't know much about the second journalist, but Tim Shipman is well known in the UK. He's written two in-depth books about British politics, one on the referendum campaign and a second about the subsequent two years. I've read parts of the latter and it is very clear that he is very well plugged in to the inner machinations of the Tory party. He is well worth tracking for that alone.

However, his understanding of Irish politics, north and south of the border, is <ahem> extremely limited and where his articles try to interpret what's being said here, it feels like he's looking at them through a particular Tory filter.

So I pay attention to what he says is going on in Boris's inner circle and the Tory party generally, but discount anything he writes regarding Ireland other than direct quotes.