Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

Simon Coveney will be on the Andrew Marr show in the morning for those interested.

Strazdas

Rain Ascending wrote: »

I don't know much about the second journalist, but Tim Shipman is well known in the UK. He's written two in-depth books about British politics, one on the referendum campaign and a second about the subsequent two years. I've read parts of the latter and it is very clear that he is very well plugged in to the inner machinations of the Tory party. He is well worth tracking for that alone.

However, his understanding of Irish politics, north and south of the border, is <ahem> extremely limited and where his articles try to interpret what's being said here, it feels like he's looking at them through a particular Tory filter.

So I pay attention to what he says is going on in Boris's inner circle and the Tory party generally, but discount anything he writes regarding Ireland other than direct quotes.

There may well be large elements of truth in the article such as Cox and Brokenshire meeting Irish officials and EU ambassadors meeting Tories but he's putting two and two together and coming up with six if he thinks the WA will be renegotiated.

Rain Ascending

Rain Ascending wrote: »

However, his [Tim Shipman's] understanding of Irish politics, north and south of the border, is <ahem> extremely limited and where his articles try to interpret what's being said here, it feels like he's looking at them through a particular Tory filter.

Just to back this statement up, here's a quote from his second book "Fall Out" talking about the ill-fated first attempt to agree the 2017 joint report:

Another MP said "They [the DUP] have negotiated the Good Friday Agreement and everything else in Northern Ireland politics -- of course they are going to be good negotiators"

There is no qualification by Shipman of the historical inaccuracy in that statement. :eek:

Stop moaning ffs

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Just to back this statement up, here's a quote from his second book "Fall Out" talking about the ill-fated first attempt to agree the 2017 joint report:


There is no qualification by Shipman of the historical inaccuracy in that statement. :eek:

Lost for words on that quote.

How can he be so deluded?

Or have the DUP spun that in HOC as they were the peacemakers?
I’d say it’s a lot of both.

Headshot

Sophy Ridge show had a segment on the Welsh Brecon & Radnorshire by election and this could be a catalyst for remainer parties as they finally working together here and they are favourite to win this seat

Enzokk

Interesting news sort of Brexit related, the person who actually broke the US Ambassador story in the UK was a 19 year old freelance journalist.

Why I helped expose ambassador's embarrassing cables: Journalist, 19, behind Trump scoop comes forward to reveal his motivation and fears he’s being targeted by security services

How wonderful it is to see how such a young person who has only been investigating the story for 7 months was able to build up such sources as to get the break in this story. He says it himself,

I am sorry to disappoint the conspiracy theorists but this was not a Brexiteer plot to topple Sir Kim, nor was it some devilish scheme to torpedo the independence of the Civil Service by installing a political appointee in Washington. Instead, it was simply an honest journalistic endeavour.

As a 19-year-old freelance journalist with a passion for politics, I was looking for a big project through which to develop my career.

This is a feel good story, until you read a little further,

I worked first as a video journalist for a political website called Westmonster before stints as a digital strategist at the Taxpayers' Alliance and Leave Means Leave campaign. Since April, I have worked for the Brexit Party, helping run its social media feeds.

I appreciate that my CV – and my pro-Brexit views – will inevitably fuel the conspiracy theories but I want to be absolutely clear: the leak of Sir Kim's cables had absolutely nothing to do with the Brexit Party.

So he has worked almost exclusively for parties with a pro-Brexit stance and he somehow was able to get a source for confidential material that helped oust a pro-EU ambassador, but this has nothing to do with the Brexit Party?

This smells even more rotten now, I think he is going to follow in the footsteps of his mentor and will give up his source seeing as he has been revealed as the one who received the material. Either that or he is going to jail for releasing secret documents. But at least Isabel Oakeshott is able to wash her hands of it, she only helped him with his spelling and grammar it seems.

Tikki Wang Wang

Coveney on Marr now. Doing a good job as usual.

Leroy42

So the guy does a massive investigation over months and then simply hands over the story to another journalist and doesn't get a reference?

Enzokk

So Coveney is saying exactly what he wrote about and what the RTE story had and what Merkel has been saying as well. The WA is not up for negotiation, the backstop with a time limit is not a backstop and if the new PM wants to rip up the WA then unfortunately it will mean no-deal.

Marr trying to land a few punches, as a good journalist should (not a criticism), but I don't see him landing anything.

looksee

On the Ambassador story -

But last month, my investigation took an extraordinary turn when a trusted source read out to me an astonishing letter written by Sir Kim in June 2017 to Sir Mark Sedwill, Britain's national security adviser. In it, Sir Kim branded Trump's White House 'inept' and 'utterly dysfunctional'.

I was shocked by the brutal language from a supposedly impartial diplomat.

Which demonstrates the danger of encouraging a school boy to meddle in diplomatic business/ shows how easy it is to make a naive young man a fall-guy.
It all hinges on the word 'impartial'. Diplomats are not supposed to be impartial, they are working for their own government, but the fact of them being diplomatic enables them to do so without offending the host country. They act as a trusted go-between, but no-one should assume they are impartial. Further, they will report privately to their own country their honest opinions on the personalities and politics of the host country, there is no reason or expectation that these reports will be 'diplomatic' or impartial.

Enzokk

To add, he confirmed we will not allow the UK to drag us out of the single market. In a no-deal checks will need to be done and negotiations with the EU Commission has been ongoing on this. We are protecting our interest and also peace on the island by trying to preserve the all-island economy. All simple and the same message as before, unless I missed something.

Tell me how

Hammond announcing on Marr that Johnson won't get to sack him was only missing him smiling in to the camera and giving the two fingers.

Johnson's government is going to lead to some incredible bio-pieces on where they've performed on Brexit.
Patel, Rabb, Davis all rumoured to be in line for positions.

One advantage is it could expose them all as charlatans.

Harry Palmr

Given the number of threatened resignations the parliamentary arithmetic is going to be tighter than a ducks proverbial. David Gauke will also leave the government when Johnson takes over and may feel no need to back any particular motion

maynooth_rules

Patel, Rabb, Davis

3 toxic dangerous bluffers.only positive is their dreadfullness will again be evident when they get their undeserved portfolios.
I don't see anyway this government can last beyond a handful of weeks. If it weren't for striking up the fear of a Corbyn lead government, they would be wiped out in that election

MadYaker

Good chance of a GE before october 31st?

Nody

MadYaker wrote: »

Good chance of a GE before october 31st?

Not really; the new PM don't want it and Corbyn for all his talk of it sure as heck don't appear to push for it in practice...

10000maniacs

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

To me the UK are looking like they are really over playing their hand right now.

Last week they were talking smack to China over Hong Kong. They are now getting into further issues with Iran. Not having a working withdrawal agreement over Brexit with France and Germany. Johnson calling our Taoiseach a Murphy. Where does it stop?

They really do have that colonial mindset drilled into them from childhood.

They are so heavily reliant on London's financial sector. Without it they will be a backwater. Yet they are behaving like a global superpower.

Boris was one word away from a diplomatic incident with Ireland when he was foreign secretary. If he used "Mick" or "Paddy" in the comment instead of "Murphy", he would be in serious trouble now.
Everybody keeps saying Johnson is a really "smart" guy. I am at a loss and don't see it. All I see is a bumbling disorganised buffoon. Is it only me? What am I missing?

Harry Palmr

Johnson is merely well read with a traditional classical education, that he can bluff his way through interviews in several languages does not make him intelligent. His constant failings when confronted by knotty and complex matters down the years show this. He'd be a great minster for Sport and Entertainment with a limited budget to spend.

Jumping ship before being pushed by the looks of it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49062514

Philip Hammond has told the BBC he intends to resign as chancellor if Boris Johnson becomes the UK's next PM.

He said a no-deal Brexit, something Mr Johnson has left open as an option, was "not something I could ever sign up to".

Asked if he thought he would be sacked next week, Mr Hammond said he would resign on Wednesday to Theresa May.

He said he intends to quit after Prime Minister's Questions but before Mrs May steps down.

I thought that the next PM took office on the 23rd a Tuesday.

10000maniacs

Deleted User wrote: »

Jumping ship before being pushed by the looks of it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49062514

Philip Hammond has told the BBC he intends to resign as chancellor if Boris Johnson becomes the UK's next PM.

He said a no-deal Brexit, something Mr Johnson has left open as an option, was "not something I could ever sign up to".

Asked if he thought he would be sacked next week, Mr Hammond said he would resign on Wednesday to Theresa May.

He said he intends to quit after Prime Minister's Questions but before Mrs May steps down.

I thought that the next PM took office on the 23rd a Tuesday.

David Gauke has said the same thing on Radio 4 this morning. The Tories are running out of options fast.

10000maniacs

10000maniacs wrote: »

David Gauke has said the same thing on Radio 4 this morning. The Tories are running out of options fast.

I'm sure they'll have a rake of Brexiteer MPs (unknown and untested) to choose from.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm sure they'll have a rake of Brexiteer MPs (unknown and untested) to choose from.

I think the LibDems might be getting a few new joiners.

Igotadose

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm sure they'll have a rake of Brexiteer MPs (unknown and untested) to choose from.

Mark Francois for Chancellor! Imagine the fun!

O.K. that's outside the charter. Indo is saying Sajid Javid as Chancellor, a neocon running the UK towards Brexit. Scary...

10000maniacs

Deleted User wrote: »

10000maniacs wrote: »

David Gauke has said the same thing on Radio 4 this morning. The Tories are running out of options fast.

I'm sure they'll have a rake of Brexiteer MPs (unknown and untested) to choose from.

Bridgen, Francois, Mogg, Paterson, Jenkin etc. I can just imagine the carnage.

ballsymchugh

10000maniacs wrote: »

Bridgen, Francois, Mogg, Paterson, Jenkin etc. I can just imagine the carnage.

Mogg is a devious charlatan who knows better than to get involved in cabinet. he'd much prefer to be commentating on the sidelines like he has done for the past few years with no real responsibility.

Strazdas

10000maniacs wrote: »

Bridgen, Francois, Mogg, Paterson, Jenkin etc. I can just imagine the carnage.

I'm not sure the likes of Francois and Bridgen would get near the cabinet (too mental even for Johnson), but it looks like Davis, Mogg, Patel and IDS will

Hermy

10000maniacs wrote: »

Everybody keeps saying Johnson is a really "smart" guy. I am at a loss and don't see it. All I see is a bumbling disorganised buffoon. Is it only me? What am I missing?

He's almost in the door of No. 10.

Surely that counts for something.

Leroy42

Jebus, IDS back in cabinet. That is pretty depressing. He failed as the leader, he failed as the minister and he has offered nothing in terms of details in regards to Brexit.

10000maniacs

Hermy wrote: »

10000maniacs wrote: »

Everybody keeps saying Johnson is a really "smart" guy. I am at a loss and don't see it. All I see is a bumbling disorganised buffoon. Is it only me? What am I missing?

He's almost in the door of No. 10.

Surely that counts for something.

No, not really. It says more about the Oxford Buddington club mentality than anything else. The champagne-swilling, restaurant-trashing, “pleb”-taunting elitism and self entitlement that was a trademark of this alternate UK universe has somehow transformed itself into the core of the Tory party that will get Johnson into number 10. Intelligence free zone unfortunately.

Enzokk

10000maniacs wrote: »

Boris was one word away from a diplomatic incident with Ireland when he was foreign secretary. If he used "Mick" or "Paddy" in the comment instead of "Murphy", he would be in serious trouble now.
Everybody keeps saying Johnson is a really "smart" guy. I am at a loss and don't see it. All I see is a bumbling disorganised buffoon. Is it only me? What am I missing?

I think he his smart, but just enough to get himself in trouble as he knows enough to get by but not enough to make the best decisions. Then you have the fact that he is an entitled racist to add to it and that is what we see. He says offensive things but in a way that you cannot really shout racist at him, but he is doing it on purpose. A bit like Jeremy Clarkson and the "slope" joke when they were in Asia and a local was using a bridge.