Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

McGiver

Strazdas wrote:

There may well be large elements of truth in the article such as Cox and Brokenshire meeting Irish officials and EU ambassadors meeting Tories but he's putting two and two together and coming up with six if he thinks the WA will be renegotiated.

The only possibility is renegotiation to the original NI only backstop version of the WA.
I think this is more likely to happen with BoJo than with TM or Hunt. Johnson could spin it as a victory, the English Brexiteers are totally ignorant of NI and I think they would buy it.

Stop moaning ffs

McGiver wrote: »

The only possibility is renegotiation to the original NI only backstop version of the WA.
I think this is more likely to happen with BoJo than with TM or Hunt. Johnson could spin it as a victory, the English Brexiteers are totally ignorant of NI and I think they would buy it.

Only this week Vatadkar said if it applied to NI only, that is still on the table and would move things forward.

Leroy42

Possibly a time limit or unilateral ability to withdraw from the UK wide backstop, but with NI essentially staying as is.

Can dress it up as alternatives will sort it out so NI have nothing to fear.

But would that require a reopening of the WA?

Water John

How long would the Brexiteers then guard the DUP's back?

Stop moaning ffs

Water John wrote: »

How long would the Brexiteers then guard the DUP's back?

If Johnson can sell the rewording of the PD to HOC he might not need DUP support any longer.
Arlene this morning saying the confidence and supply arrangement will continue.
I wouldn’t bank on Johnson remaining as faithful to the DUP as they seem to be to him and the current status.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Tikki Wang Wang wrote: »

Coveney on Marr now. Doing a good job as usual.

Full interview is up on YouTube. Can't post a link because of phone.

Coveney did an excellent job to be fair to him. Similar to how Mairead McGuinness has explained Ireland's thoughts on British TV. He was really concise in how he answered all the questions put to him.
I'm thankful he and his team have such a realistic approach to Brexit. Talking about the all Ireland economy and peace on the island is a very reasonable standpoint to have. 800,00 journeys and 30% of all exports between north and south. He had the facts to back up his points

Have never given Fine Gael a first preference. But am almost considering it based on his performance with regard to Brexit, as I'm registered in his constituency of Cork south central.

I'm still annoyed he hasn't delivered the Event Centre for Cork but that's for the Cork City forum.

Water John

I haven't seen any Irish politician perform poorly on this issue. The briefing from the civil service has been top notch from day 1.
Even politicians who are mediocre on other things have come good when on foreign media on this issue. I think they all are on their A game on this matter.

Igotadose

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

Full interview is up on YouTube. Can't post a link because of phone.

Coveney did an excellent job to be fair to him. Similar to how Mairead McGuinness has explained Ireland's thoughts on British TV. He was really concise in how he answered all the questions put to him.
I'm thankful he and his team have such a realistic approach to Brexit. Talking about the all Ireland economy and peace on the island is a very reasonable standpoint to have. 800,00 journeys and 30% of all exports between north and south. He had the facts to back up his points

Have never given Fine Gael a first preference. But am almost considering it based on his performance with regard to Brexit, as I'm registered in his constituency of Cork south central.

I'm still annoyed he hasn't delivered the Event Centre for Cork but that's for the Cork City forum.

Excellent performance by Coveney. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rKoJfVEZNQ

Marr kept trying to bait him into traps, but he avoided them adroitly, and kept hammering on 'Brexit is a UK decision. No-Deal Brexit hurts everyone.' Coveney reiterated that it will be a UK decision to leave without a deal. Basically shredding the whinefest that comes out of the UK media.

I suppose Marr is well regarded, but he definitely couldn't get Coveney to say or do anything wrong.

Tell me how

Water John wrote: »

I haven't seen any Irish politician perform poorly on this issue. The briefing from the civil service has been top notch from day 1.
Even politicians who are mediocre on other things have come good when on foreign media on this issue. I think they all are on their A game on this matter.

Agree.
Coveney, McEntee, Richmond and McGuinness all top notch. And all with very similar manner and arguments whenever they are on show.
No sense that they are shooting from the hip.

Whoever coordinated their guidance/coaching/training deserves a clap on the back.

I'm not a fan of local FG representatives, but Coveney is someone I think of as very very capable.

Water John

I presume there is a strategic briefing team in the Dept of Foreign Affairs, possibly drawing expertise across Depts.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Water John wrote: »

I presume there is a strategic briefing team in the Dept of Foreign Affairs, possibly drawing expertise across Depts.

There must be.

Brexit is a minefield for Irish politics and society so you need people with a bit of cop on to be there talking with public representatives.

The whole thing is too important to half ass it.

J Mysterio

Igotadose wrote: »

Excellent performance by Coveney. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rKoJfVEZNQ

Thanks for the link. Agree Coveney very good as always. Accepting no nonsense and quite forceful in his points.

I do wish the conversation could be switched back to the sea border. This works for everyone bar the DUP.

Stop moaning ffs

J Mysterio wrote: »

Thanks for the link. Agree Coveney very good as always. Accepting no nonsense and quite forceful in his points.

I do wish the conversation could be switched back to the sea border. This works for everyone bar the DUP.

It’s just bizarre it’s not front and Center as the way forward.

Igotadose

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

There must be.

Brexit is a minefield for Irish politics and society so you need people with a bit of cop on to be there talking with public representatives.

The whole thing is too important to half ass it.

Wish the UK would realize that. Amusing the cadre of Brexit supporters here have gone away, at this point it's just watch-the-trainwreck. Whatever did happen to SoloDel...

Spanish Eyes

Very inpressive interview Coveney on Marr.

Pity few will care in UK. Such is the cult of Brexit.

Stop moaning ffs

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Very inpressive interview Coveney on Marr.

Pity few will care in UK. Such is the cult of Brexit.

I know twitter isn’t a reliable gauge but a great many Brits seem really impressed with him with many wishing they had anyone like as capable and articulate as him in all this mess.
On the other hand he’s annoying a great many of them simply because he’s bursting their fantasy and some of the stuff being said really exposes that good old colonial imperial delusion and some outright anti Irish sentiment.
And some of them trying to present ‘facts’ about us and what we ‘owe’ Britain really make for a poor display of not only our history with Britain but their lack of education on their own history. Even recent events.

Looking st the interview and the reaction you can see the blame game is in ramping up.

ThePanjandrum

J Mysterio wrote: »

Thanks for the link. Agree Coveney very good as always. Accepting no nonsense and quite forceful in his points.

I do wish the conversation could be switched back to the sea border. This works for everyone bar the DUP.

Is this the sea border between Ireland and the rest of the EU? Why would it upset the DUP?

Sam Russell

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Is this the sea border between Ireland and the rest of the EU? Why would it upset the DUP?

That is not happening under any Irish Gov. The first pressure point in a 'No-Deal' scenario is the British border at Dover port. When that is sorted then the attention will turn to the British border in Ireland.

If the British Gov decides to inspect at Larne for agriculture and hygiene as they do now (but 100% inspection) then the problem reduces.

Ted_YNWA

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Is this the sea border between Ireland and the rest of the EU? Why would it upset the DUP?

He is referring to a sea border between the island of Ireland & the UK.

DUP would have a fit that they have a border between them & rest of UK.

Ireland & EU is a non-starter as effectively we are out of single market too.

Thargor

We dont want the Sea Border either, giving NI dual status would suck investment out of the Republic.

Sam Russell

Thargor wrote: »

We dont want the Sea Border either, giving NI dual status would suck investment out of the Republic.

I do not think dual status is on offer.

There is just those matters wrt the 'all Ireland economy, the GFA, and an open border'.

VAT is a problem that must be sorted to prevent a smugglers paradise. Currently, both jurisdiction work in harmony to prevent VAT fraud. This must be maintained. Tariffs are small beer in comparison (if the agriculture is sorted).

McGiver

Thargor wrote:

We dont want the Sea Border either, giving NI dual status would suck investment out of the Republic.

Dual NI status is just a continuation of the status quo and a state which has been in place since the GFA was signed.

Hence, I don't Follow the DUP headbangers' logic and motives - special status for NI doesn't make any difference to the current state, state they have been living in for 20 years and makes UI prospect much less likely. If there is no border on the Island of Ireland and if the whole Ireland is part of the whole Ireland economy as well as NI de iure under British control there's little need for UI because this state is very close to the actual UI state. Especially with devolution and power sharing in NI which gives nationalists limited control of affairs and makes the hassle of undergoing through the UI process less palatable.

On the other hand, hard Brexit and no deal Brexit will ruin the NI economy and likely open door to the UI in medium term.

I suspect their motive is to unroll the GFA using Brexit as the opportunity, but it's a high stake gamble - they may end up with nothing and higher likelihood of UI than now. They ate overlaying their hand. Notwithstanding that if they think that an international treaty with RoI gov, HMG, US gov and the EU ad guarantors can be broken easily they are really deluded.

Stop moaning ffs

Post GFA it was supposed to be an equal balance open door to foreign investment both sides of the border. Ireland benefitted to an incomparible level than NI. It didn’t benefit from it at all.

That won’t change with a border in the sea, no corporation is going to invest in the UK/NI in the aftermath. until you see reunification then it’s all go.

Foghladh

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I know twitter isn’t a reliable gauge but a great many Brits seem really impressed with him with many wishing they had anyone like as capable and articulate as him in all this mess.
On the other hand he’s annoying a great many of them simply because he’s bursting their fantasy and some of the stuff being said really exposes that good old colonial imperial delusion and some outright anti Irish sentiment.
And some of them trying to present ‘facts’ about us and what we ‘owe’ Britain really make for a poor display of not only our history with Britain but their lack of education on their own history. Even recent events.

Looking st the interview and the reaction you can see the blame game is in ramping up.

With all respects to Simon Coveney I'd doubt that a great many Brits have ever heard of him. If I walked into the office in the morning and mentioned his name I don't think too many would know of him, certainly not as many as would know of Michel Barnier or Donald Tusk. That's because the optic in the UK is quite different to that at home. The UK hasn't been in negotiations with Ireland, it has with the EU though. And frankly the references to "colonial imperial delusion" are a little ridiculous. There aren't too many alive today who remember the days of Empire and I can't say that I've met any British person with a hankering to reestablish the Raj.

Lackadaisical

Unfortunately, it's not really painting a great picture for anyone who would like to invest. It just looks politically unstable both because of the UK and Brexit mess and because of local political issues.

They don't really ever ask themselves what exactly are they offering to people who might want to invest there? It doesn't really seem like a very attractive pitch.

BonnieSituation

Foghladh wrote: »

With all respects to Simon Coveney I'd doubt that a great many Brits have ever heard of him. If I walked into the office in the morning and mentioned his name I don't think too many would know of him, certainly not as many as would know of Michel Barnier or Donald Tusk. That's because the optic in the UK is quite different to that at home. The UK hasn't been in negotiations with Ireland, it has with the EU though. And frankly the references to "colonial imperial delusion" are a little ridiculous. There aren't too many alive today who remember the days of Empire and I can't say that I've met any British person with a hankering to reestablish the Raj.

With all due respect to the Brits, I'd doubt they barely know who Tusk or Barnier are either. Not the most politically engaged are our neighbours.

Foghladh

BonnieSituation wrote: »

With all due respect to the Brits, I'd doubt they barely know who Tusk or Barnier are either. Not the most politically engaged are our neighbours.

I've found otherwise but no doubt you know best.

mickoneill31

Foghladh wrote: »

With all respects to Simon Coveney I'd doubt that a great many Brits have ever heard of him. If I walked into the office in the morning and mentioned his name I don't think too many would know of him, certainly not as many as would know of Michel Barnier or Donald Tusk. That's because the optic in the UK is quite different to that at home. The UK hasn't been in negotiations with Ireland, it has with the EU though. And frankly the references to "colonial imperial delusion" are a little ridiculous. There aren't too many alive today who remember the days of Empire and I can't say that I've met any British person with a hankering to reestablish the Raj.

I don't think you need the with all due respect bit. A percentage of Brits barely know that we're a separate country and Id suspect you'd have a hard time getting many English to identify many politicians in the other regions of the UK (their own country).

.

brickster69

Notwithstanding that if they think that an international treaty with RoI gov, HMG, US gov and the EU ad guarantors can be broken easily they are really deluded.

I think you should get your facts right. The UK & Ireland are the only guarantors of the GFA.

Seen as the GFA has no mention of taxes or goods being collected at the border why would it be broken ?

BonnieSituation

Foghladh wrote: »

I've found otherwise but no doubt you know best.

With all due respect, you're not exactly giving us anything to work with here. We know very well what the average Brit is like.