Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs

Foghladh wrote: »

With all respects to Simon Coveney I'd doubt that a great many Brits have ever heard of him. If I walked into the office in the morning and mentioned his name I don't think too many would know of him, certainly not as many as would know of Michel Barnier or Donald Tusk. That's because the optic in the UK is quite different to that at home. The UK hasn't been in negotiations with Ireland, it has with the EU though. And frankly the references to "colonial imperial delusion" are a little ridiculous. There aren't too many alive today who remember the days of Empire and I can't say that I've met any British person with a hankering to reestablish the Raj.

Can’t agree. Ireland is closely tied for enemy number 1 in certain people’s media outlets and and forums minds. And they don’t have to be aware of their British colonial imperial history to be under its delusion. Most of them aren’t aware of the history. But It’s prevalent in their society and media down to a microscopic degree and up to the macro also.

You obviously haven’t seen some of the clueless ‘why don’t we take Ireland out with us/ why doesn’t ireland leave with us/them bloody paddies owe us’ nonsense out there. But there’s any amount of it. And now it’s coming from the bbc directly if you parse Marrs language today. And many other of his colleagues in ‘journalism’ over there.

Charles Babbage

brickster69 wrote: »

Notwithstanding that if they think that an international treaty with RoI gov, HMG, US gov and the EU ad guarantors can be broken easily they are really deluded.

I think you should get your facts right. The UK & Ireland are the only guarantors of the GFA.

Seen as the GFA has no mention of taxes or goods being collected at the border why would it be broken ?

The GFA doesn't state that all nationalists may not be required to wear green by the British, but such a requirement would break it nonetheless.

Leroy42

On Coveney interview, I felt he started to get really frustrated during it, but he held it in check very well. It must be really hard not to scream "this is all your fecking fault, stop blaming others because you guys had no plan."

Also, when Marr mentions the impact to the Irish economy, I would be hard pressed not to say that that should be troubling the UK the fact they are prepared to damage a friendly nation like that for some idea.

I thought he did really well, and made a very strong point, a number of times, that this was all down to decisions the UK will make. The deal is on the table, so No Deal is purely down to them (not that they are listening).

But whatever happens, Coveney has done his future prospects no harm at all during this.

Stop moaning ffs

Leroy42 wrote: »

On Coveney interview, I felt he started to get really frustrated during it, but he held it in check very well. It must be really hard not to scream "this is all your fecking fault, stop blaming others because you guys had no plan."

Also, when Marr mentions the impact to the Irish economy, I would be hard pressed not to say that that should be troubling the UK the fact they are prepared to damage a friendly nation like that for some idea.

I thought he did really well, and made a very strong point, a number of times, that this was all down to decisions the UK will make. The deal is on the table, so No Deal is purely down to them (not that they are listening).

But whatever happens, Coveney has done his future prospects no harm at all during this.

Absolutely agree.

Unless he decides to fall off a swing and claim for it this is good for his cv.

He’s the one I can see getting one of the big jobs in Europe. Way ahead of Leo

Water John

And he's well in with the big boys in Davos.

fash

mickoneill31 wrote: »

I don't think you need the with all due respect bit. A percentage of Brits barely know that we're a separate country and Id suspect you'd have a hard time getting many English to identify many politicians in the other regions of the UK (their own country).

.

Indeed - there was a poster in an earlier version of this thread whose English geography teacher friend was explaining to his Asian girlfriend that Ireland was a part of the UK.

listermint

Netflix Documentary out 24th July. The Great Hack.



https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1152652950239662080?s=20


More interesting brexit related Cambridge Analytica information

brickster69

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The GFA doesn't state that all nationalists may not be required to wear green by the British, but such a requirement would break it nonetheless.

Who cares what an International treaty does not state. What is written down in black and white is all that matters.

Foghladh

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Can’t agree. Ireland is closely tied for enemy number 1 in certain people’s media outlets and and forums minds. And they don’t have to be aware of their British colonial imperial history to be under its delusion. Most of them aren’t aware of the history. But It’s prevalent in their society and media down to a microscopic degree and up to the macro also.

You obviously haven’t seen some of the clueless ‘why don’t we take Ireland out with us/ why doesn’t ireland leave with us/them bloody paddies owe us’ nonsense out there. But there’s any amount of it. And now it’s coming from the bbc directly if you parse Marrs language today. And many other of his colleagues in ‘journalism’ over there.

As one who lives and works in the UK I've yet to come across any mainstream idea that Ireland is Enemy #1. Or even a non-mainstream one. As for the notion that colonial imperialism is so engrained in British culture, from the macro to the micro, that the populace are unaware of their delusions to rebuild the Empire? I don't know what you do with that. How do you counter an unconscious bias of that magnitude? Incidentally is is only inhabitants of the former British Empire who possess this or all former Empires such as the French, Spanish, Ottoman etc?

Foghladh

BonnieSituation wrote: »

With all due respect, you're not exactly giving us anything to work with here. We know very well what the average Brit is like.

I'm not the one generalising an entire country. I doubt that your idea of the average Brit is anywhere near accurate anymore than a British person could know what the average Irish person is like

McGiver

brickster69 wrote:

Notwithstanding that if they think that an international treaty with RoI gov, HMG, US gov and the EU ad guarantors can be broken easily they are really deluded.

The EU and the US were heavily involved.

Joe_ Public

The US definitely keeping a close eye on brexit developments re the GFA. Didn't Nancy Pelosi send a warning to the UK about future potential bilateral trade deals in the event of a hard brexit when she visited here a while back? The democrats have our backs, it seems, and they control congress so there's at least some reassurance in that.

Stop moaning ffs

Foghladh wrote: »

As one who lives and works in the UK I've yet to come across any mainstream idea that Ireland is Enemy #1. Or even a non-mainstream one. As for the notion that colonial imperialism is so engrained in British culture, from the macro to the micro, that the populace are unaware of their delusions to rebuild the Empire? I don't know what you do with that. How do you counter an unconscious bias of that magnitude? Incidentally is is only inhabitants of the former British Empire who possess this or all former Empires such as the French, Spanish, Ottoman etc?

I will simply refer you to the entire behaviour, no, carry on of the British administration since this started and in the coming weeks.
This is Their disaster.
They haven’t gotten what they want.
They’re demanding everything agreed be scrapped to give them what they want.
And it’s about to get worse. Into blaming us and everyone else except themselves.

I don’t know what planet you’re living on but it doesn’t sound like the britain we’ve all been dealing with for the last 800 years never mind the last three.

McGiver

brickster69 wrote:

Seen as the GFA has no mention of taxes or goods being collected at the border why would it be broken ?

Why? Because for all Ireland economy to function frictionlessly and no physical border to exist, EU membership is required for both NI and RoI, or more specifically both NI and RoI to be in a regulatory alignment and both in the SM as well as the CU. This was all assumed to continue when the GFA was signed. The GFA is predicated on EU membership of both jurisdictions. Brexit completely disrupts the predicament and is almost impossible to achieve without breaking the GFA.

Basically, the only feasible Brexit option is a Norway style Brexit with CU alignment for NI. Or NI only backstop. There's no other solution possible.

FrancieBrady

McGiver wrote: »

Why? Because for all Ireland economy to function frictionlessly and no physical border to exist, EU membership is required for both NI and RoI, or more specifically both NI and RoI to be in a regulatory alignment and both in the SM as well as the CU. This was all assumed to continue when the GFA was signed. The GFA is predicated on EU membership of both jurisdictions. Brexit completely disrupts the predicament and is almost impossible to achieve without breaking the GFA.

Basically, the only feasible Brexit option is a Norway style Brexit with CU alignment for NI. Or NI only backstop. There's no other solution possible.

This is correct, the EU is critical to the GFA

the European Union forms the general political framework for relations between the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland under the GFA

https://multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/the-eu-and-good-friday-agreement_9405_pk

https://merrionstreet.ie/en/EU-UK/Key_Irish_Documents/Government_Approach_to_Brexit_Negotiations.pdf

20silkcut

McGiver wrote: »

Why? Because for all Ireland economy to function frictionlessly and no physical border to exist, EU membership is required for both NI and RoI, or more specifically both NI and RoI to be in a regulatory alignment and both in the SM as well as the CU. This was all assumed to continue when the GFA was signed. The GFA is predicated on EU membership of both jurisdictions. Brexit completely disrupts the predicament and is almost impossible to achieve without breaking the GFA.

Basically, the only feasible Brexit option is a Norway style Brexit with CU alignment for NI. Or NI only backstop. There's no other solution possible.

And in fairness before the referendum that was the only brexit that was really on the cards.

Lancaster house and the insane red lines it produced changed everything.

Strazdas

McGiver wrote: »

The EU and the US were heavily involved.

The US involvement was huge. George Mitchell was the chairman of the talks and Bill Clinton was on the phone constantly negotiating with the leaders.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The US definitely keeping a close eye on brexit developments re the GFA. Didn't Nancy Pelosi send a warning to the UK about future potential bilateral trade deals in the event of a hard brexit when she visited here a while back? The democrats have our backs, it seems, and they control congress so there's at least some reassurance in that.

I wouldn't want to put my faith in the Democrats - despite German and Irish being the largest and second-largest self-reported ancestry groups in the United States. Think African Americans are third.

We have very little clout in Washington unfortunately. We have a St. Patrick's Day date and that's it.

You see Irish names pop up all the time. Generals, politicians, governors ect. ect. But they have no sincere connection with Ireland. Maybe 100 years ago it'd be different.

Foghladh

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I don’t know what planet you’re living on but it doesn’t sound like the britain we’ve all been dealing with for the last 800 years never mind the last three.

Possibly you need to disentangle modern day Britain from the one you've been personally dealing with for the past 800 years

reslfj

McGiver wrote: »

Basically, the only feasible Brexit option is a Norway style Brexit with CU alignment for NI. Or NI only backstop. There's no other solution possible.

SM is fundamentally 'standard, rule and regulatory alignment'.

Both CU and regulatory alignment for goods is a must across a frictionless land border. The backstop as now in the WA has a UK wide CU and regulatory alignment for NI.

The UK wide CU will do away with tariffs and thus most incentives to monetise smuggling.
But for the land border itself both a CU and the SM in NI is what is required.

The Irish Sea customs border between the island of GB and NI is the efficient NI solution for Brexit.

Lars

Sam Russell

reslfj wrote: »

SM is fundamentally 'standard, rule and regulatory alignment'.

Both CU and regulatory alignment for goods is a must across a frictionless land border. The backstop as now in the WA has a UK wide CU and regulatory alignment for NI.

The UK wide CU will do away with tariffs and thus most incentives to monetise smuggling.
But for the land border itself both a CU and the SM in NI is what is required.

The Irish Sea customs border between the island of GB and NI is the efficient NI solution for Brexit.

Lars

VAT alignment is important because of the VAT carousel yrick which is great for a smuggler. NI has to maintain the VAT connection that EU gives.

McGiver

reslfj wrote:

The Irish Sea customs border between the island of GB and NI is the efficient NI solution for Brexit.

Exactly, I'd add the only solution and the HMG know that (at least the civil service). Or Norway+ as I said, but that's kind of a pointless exercise, de facto a vassal state status in exchange of keeping sterling and an illusion of sovereignty.

Stop moaning ffs

Foghladh wrote: »

Possibly you need to disentangle modern day Britain from the one you've been personally dealing with for the past 800 years

Are you even from here?
Get them to disentangle themselves from Northern Ireland and put a border in the sea and we all have a much clearer path through all of this.

But you’re aware of this I’m sure.

Strazdas

McGiver wrote: »

Exactly, I'd add the only solution and the HMG know that (at least the civil service). Or Norway+ as I said, but that's kind of a pointless exercise, de facto a vassal state status in exchange of keeping sterling and an illusion of sovereignty.

Norway is not a "vassal state" of the EU. Indeed, it is impossible for any country to be a vassal state under it seeing as it is a union of 28 equals and with no central power.

upupup

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I wouldn't want to put my faith in the Democrats - despite German and Irish being the largest and second-largest self-reported ancestry groups in the United States. Think African Americans are third.

We have very little clout in Washington unfortunately. We have a St. Patrick's Day date and that's it.

You see Irish names pop up all the time. Generals, politicians, governors ect. ect. But they have no sincere connection with Ireland. Maybe 100 years ago it'd be different.

The Democrats will use the GFA and Brexit against The Trump trade deal.
The Democrats that do care about peace in Ireland have our backs and the Democrats that don't care about peace also have our backs because they will use this as a weapon to punish Trump

BonnieSituation

Foghladh wrote: »

I'm not the one generalising an entire country. I doubt that your idea of the average Brit is anywhere near accurate anymore than a British person could know what the average Irish person is like

Doubt away I guess

Stop moaning ffs

upupup wrote: »

The Democrats will use the GFA and Brexit against The Trump trade deal.
The Democrats that do care about peace in Ireland have our backs and the Democrats that don't care about peace also have our backs because they will use this as a weapon to punish Trump

The Irish lobby in Congress and senate is considerable and from both sides of the aisle.
Britain has been warned any version of brexit that threatens peace here will see any trade deals with the US the UK are hoping for, die on the vine.

This isn’t just recently either.

Charles Babbage

brickster69 wrote: »

Who cares what an International treaty does not state. What is written down in black and white is all that matters.

Things like

We are committed to partnership, equality and mutual respect as the basis of relationships within Northern Ireland, between North and South, and between these islands.

...the power of the sovereign government with jurisdiction there shall be exercised with rigorous impartiality on behalf of all the people in the diversity of their identities and traditions and shall be founded on the principles of full respect for, and equality of, civil, political, social and cultural rights, of freedom from discrimination for all citizens, and of parity of esteem and of just and equal treatment for the identity, ethos, and aspirations of both communities;

ThePanjandrum

Sam Russell wrote: »

That is not happening under any Irish Gov. The first pressure point in a 'No-Deal' scenario is the British border at Dover port. When that is sorted then the attention will turn to the British border in Ireland.

If the British Gov decides to inspect at Larne for agriculture and hygiene as they do now (but 100% inspection) then the problem reduces.

Why not? The Belfast Agreement is about Northrrn Ireland and its relationship with Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom which are the only other parties to the agreement.

If a hard border with Ireland would breach the Agreement then so would a hard border with mainland Britain and a sea border would come within this definition.

The EU excluding Ireland is not a party to the Agreement so that a hard border between any of the parties and the EU does not breach the Agreement. Hence, a hard border between the United Kingdom and France does nor Breach the Agreement.

Therefore, as a border between Northern Ireland and either of the other two parties would breach the Agreement, the solution is to have a border between Ireland and the EU.

So the border is Ireland's problem, not the UK's.

jm08

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I wouldn't want to put my faith in the Democrats - despite German and Irish being the largest and second-largest self-reported ancestry groups in the United States. Think African Americans are third.

We have very little clout in Washington unfortunately. We have a St. Patrick's Day date and that's it.

You see Irish names pop up all the time. Generals, politicians, governors ect. ect. But they have no sincere connection with Ireland. Maybe 100 years ago it'd be different.

They say nothing happens in the US without the say-so of the three 'I's. Irish, Italian and Israelis/jews.


A good example as to the kind of support that the Irish-American caucus can drump up is on the recent vote in both congress and the senate where only one person voted against giving the excess Australian visas to Ireland. Paul Ryan (Rep). who was leader of the senate sponsored that Bill.


Richard Neal, Chairman of the Ways & Means Committee (which scrutinise all trade agreements) was brought up by his grandmother and aunt who are from Northern Ireland. He was involved in the Peace Process and was here recently with Nancy Pelosi. Next to the Israelis, Ireland is the most powerful group in the US and it can deliver a huge vote. Thats how Clinton got involved with the Peace Process - he was after the Irish-American vote.