Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

reslfj

trellheim wrote: »

... If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

You are way out.

The EU27 has larger problems with the NI-RoI border, than just the GFA. The protection of the Internal Market/the SM is at the core of the EU27's position - with or without Leo.

The EU27 will not let the backstop vanish just because Leo Varadkar changes his and his governments position (which I don't see happening).

The UK has agreed to the WA. Except for an A50 revoke the WA text will be ratified by the UK as such a ratification is the one and only way to get any deal - trade or non trade - with the EU.

The UK will after a 'No Deal' Brexit be a fairly small and rule taking nation. It better understand and accept this fact as soon as possible.


Lars

trellheim

The EU27 will not let the backstop vanish just because Leo Varadkar changes his and his governments position (which I don't see happening).

I am putting up predictions for what will I believe happen, i.e. massive pressure being applied to Irish Government to find a facesaver.

Neither you nor I know whats going to be put on offer, but we would be stupid not to consider all options.


The UK has shown it wants to do unilateral (e.g going to see Merkel, Macron directly)

Some immediate carrot will be shown by the UK almost immediately and then the pressure will come on e.g ( not ECJ but something like agreeing to pay the bill)

By the way I have never once said we will or should buckle under to such pressure.

If you dont think this will happen do you think they will sit there wibbling in the corner till Oct 31 ? We need to have an answer to every single play they will try.

KildareP

trellheim wrote: »

I know exactly where the negotiations are.

If you think negotiations are closed you are on a different planet. People saying things doesnt make it true. Diplomacy carries on.

Some facesaver will be attempted ( or, indeed, not found).

Leo does not lead the EU side of the negotiating team, thats Barnier's job, true enough , but misses the point . If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

Now I agree this is unlikely BUT massive pressure is about to be applied. I would say Foreign Affairs and the Government have a playbook for this whole scenario.

Saying things are closed leaves you open to endplays , all scenarios need consideration.

The negotiations are closed whilst the UK red lines remain in place as they are.

The EU have always indicated that if the UK were to alter or change it's current red lines then it would be open to reconsider the exit process.

The Irish cannot back down on the backstop - it will cause massive diplomacy issues from both the UK and EU sides and all of the issues it was designed to protect will not suddenly be resolved.

So where is the pressure coming to come from?
The UK?
They've already enough on their plate as it is, and it's growing by the day. The EU market is immediately off limits and the USA and Canada are sending messages that aren't exactly in the UK's favour. Hopes of opening markets further afield are suddenly looking very uncertain with what's going on in Iran.
The EU?
What are they going to pressure Ireland about? To give in to the UK demands on the backstop and risk letting the UK think they can then apply individual pressure on all of the other areas they're unhappy about because eventually they'll get their way and break each and every one with enough pressure?

The only pressure I can see growing against anyone is the UK and it won't be just the EU causing it.
No FTA with EU27 for forseeable under current sets of circumstances.
Canada now refusing to roll-over CETA if UK are just going to throw open their market tariff free.
USA will make a deal entirely on their terms, not the UK's, and many of those terms hinted at are highly unpalatable.

So now having ruled those three big markets out, your nearest market is at least a quarter-way around the globe. That makes it:
- impossible to transit goods that have a very short shelf-life without considerable expense (and very little readily available capacity exists today)
- the huge increases in shipping and airborne freight miles necessary will send the likes of Extinction Rebellion into overdrive
- the pound shows every sign of tanking every time the prospect of No Deal is looking to be a foregone conclusion so the added expense is now a double whammy.

Whereas the EU negotiation team have shown themselves to be a group who are prepared to take the slowly-slowly approach and wait things out - one thing the UK will not have in a No-Deal scenario is time and things will get very tough, very quickly. It's not a game of chicken I'd like to play from the UK side.

trellheim

KildareP wrote: »

The negotiations are closed whilst the UK red lines remain in place as they are.

The EU have always indicated that if the UK were to alter or change it's current red lines then it would be open to reconsider the exit process.

The Irish cannot back down on the backstop - it will cause massive diplomacy issues from both the UK and EU sides and all of the issues it was designed to protect will not suddenly be resolved.

So where is the pressure coming to come from?
The UK?
They've already enough on their plate as it is, and it's growing by the day. The EU market is immediately off limits and the USA and Canada are sending messages that aren't exactly in the UK's favour. Hopes of opening markets further afield are suddenly looking very uncertain with what's going on in Iran.
The EU?
What are they going to pressure Ireland about? To give in to the UK demands on the backstop and risk letting the UK think they can then apply individual pressure on all of the other areas they're unhappy about because eventually they'll get their way and break each and every one with enough pressure?

The only pressure I can see growing against anyone is the UK and it won't be just the EU causing it.
No FTA with EU27 for forseeable under current sets of circumstances.
Canada now refusing to roll-over CETA if UK are just going to throw open their market tariff free.
USA will make a deal entirely on their terms, not the UK's, and many of those terms hinted at are highly unpalatable.

So now having ruled those three big markets out, your nearest market is at least a quarter-way around the globe. That makes it:
- impossible to transit goods that have a very short shelf-life without considerable expense (and very little readily available capacity exists today)
- the huge increases in shipping and airborne freight miles necessary will send the likes of Extinction Rebellion into overdrive
- the pound shows every sign of tanking every time the prospect of No Deal is looking to be a foregone conclusion so the added expense is now a double whammy.

Whereas the EU negotiation team have shown themselves to be a group who are prepared to take the slowly-slowly approach and wait things out - one thing the UK will not have in a No-Deal scenario is time and things will get very tough, very quickly. It's not a game of chicken I'd like to play from the UK side.

All fair points, and said better than I could, but a clown (or several clowns) are about to be sent into the ring by the UK to do just that who was elected, to do just that.

better to serve as PM of the dumpster fire rather than doing a deal ? What'll stop him ? Even if Parliament stayed in session till Oct 31, all that needs to happen is nothing. And they have ruled out taking no-deal off the table.

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

I know exactly where the negotiations are.

If you think negotiations are closed you are on a different planet. People saying things doesnt make it true. Diplomacy carries on.

Some facesaver will be attempted ( or, indeed, not found).

Leo does not lead the EU side of the negotiating team, thats Barnier's job, true enough , but misses the point . If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

Now I agree this is unlikely BUT massive pressure is about to be applied. I would say Foreign Affairs and the Government have a playbook for this whole scenario.

Saying things are closed leaves you open to endplays , all scenarios need consideration.

Even if the negotiations could be reopened, a massive obstacle is that the Brexiteers are deeply divided. There is no unified position on their side and they want different versions of Brexit (ie. many of them want No Deal and nothing else).

There would be a major risk that even if the EU ditched the backstop and signed a new WA. hard Brexiteers would start kicking off within days and maybe refuse to ratify it in the Commons

Stop moaning ffs

trellheim wrote: »

All fair points, and said better than I could, but a clown (or several clowns) are about to be sent into the ring by the UK to do just that who was elected, to do just that.

better to serve as PM of the dumpster fire rather than doing a deal ? What'll stop him ? Even if Parliament stayed in session till Oct 31, all that needs to happen is nothing. And they have ruled out taking no-deal off the table.

Don’t know if you saw Coveney on Marr yesterday but worth a watch. It is not the sound of a man or position that’s under any pressure from any faction or going to cave to the imaginary pressure.
He does sound bored of having to repeat himself on the same points such as those you’ve brought up.
Well worth a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rKoJfVEZNQ

BonnieSituation

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Don’t know if you saw Coveney on Marr yesterday but worth a watch. It is not the sound of a man or position that’s under any pressure from any faction or going to cave to the imaginary pressure.
He does sound bored of having to repeat himself on the same points such as those you’ve brought up.
Well worth a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rKoJfVEZNQ

He really is nailing his brief.

The frustration was kept in check by pure force of will.

The comparison of him and say his equivalent Jeremy Hunt on detail is night and day.

trellheim

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

Water John

One in four UK farmers support a Hard Brexit, the mind boggles. As this guy says, they'll be decimated,
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/a-tsunami-about-to-hit-uk-farmers-mr-brexit/


Well Tories + DUP have a majority of 3. They will lose the August byelection, that means one person to defect to the Lib Dems makes it a minority Govrn't.
With the line up willing to stop Johnson on the No Deal road, he had better try another tack. but doubt he has the brains or skills.

fly_agaric

trellheim wrote: »

I am putting up predictions for what will I believe happen, i.e. massive pressure being applied to Irish Government to find a facesaver.

I think only change EU and Irish government would accept is the "NI only" version of backstop from end 2017 that the DUP shot down.
That is reopening the agreement, but only to replace parts of it with other things the EU (Ireland) were happy to agree to 2 years ago. Only the smaller NI economy in a sort of a twilight zone between the EU and the rest of the post-Brexit UK is (I think?) actually preferable for the EU.

In terms of pressure, it is true that the EU is generally a broken reed and hopelessly divided when it comes to common policy for many external/foreign policy issues beyond trade. So there may be scope there for a much more adversarial/antagonistic UK government to sow discord. Theresa May was fairly restrained and always maintained she wanted the UK to have a good future relationship with the EU and the member states whatever happened in negotiations and would act in good faith within the EU until the UK exited. With Boris Johnson...not so sure that will remain the case.
Whether playing a card like that as they try to exit the EU will somehow benefit the UK in the long run or change the outcome... Its just likely to make everything much worse [edit IMO of course].

trellheim

Water John wrote: »

One in four UK farmers support a Hard Brexit, the mind boggles. As this guy says, they'll be decimated,
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/a-tsunami-about-to-hit-uk-farmers-mr-brexit/


Well Tories + DUP have a majority of 3. They will lose the August byelection, that means one person to defect to the Lib Dems makes it a minority Govrn't.
With the line up willing to stop Johnson on the No Deal road, he had better try another tack. but doubt he has the brains or skills.

You need something to vote for to avoid a No deal and it has to make it onto the order paper. The House is refusing to do just that, at the moment.

Stop moaning ffs

trellheim wrote: »

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

The UK can’t simply throw out the WA and replace it tomorrow or Wednesday or any day. It’s called an agreement. With the EU27.
They can choose to not sign up to it on October 31st. But unless Johnson drops red lines the WA is going nowhere.

What red lines do you think he’s about to drop?

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

All fair points, and said better than I could, but a clown (or several clowns) are about to be sent into the ring by the UK to do just that who was elected, to do just that.

better to serve as PM of the dumpster fire rather than doing a deal ? What'll stop him ? Even if Parliament stayed in session till Oct 31, all that needs to happen is nothing. And they have ruled out taking no-deal off the table.

Well, not quite.

TM has to recommend a person to become PM who can control a majority in the HoC. Could she, in all conscience, say Johnson would command a majority with ministers resigning ahead of her own resignation?

Even if she does name Johnson as her successor, how long before further resignations or events reduce his current majority of 3/5ths of 5/8ths of FA to no majority at all? Then there will be a vote of No Confidence as night follows day.

Her alternative, which I am sure she will not follow, will be to call on someone like Dominic Grieve to try to form a Government of National Unity, with Tory, Labour, SNP, and Lib Dems plus any others to take the UK out of its current trajectory to crash out, followed by economic doom.

Johnson will get the gig, lie, lie, and tell a few untruths, and fail horribly.

Forecast: GE in in October, extension granted by the EU. New Gov revokes Art 50 and vows to never speak about Brexit again, but draws up plans to strengthen the UK position within the EU by joining the Euro, and strengthen the EU military capabilities by providing two aircraft carriers that the UK has no planes that can land on them.

We will see.

VinLieger

trellheim wrote: »

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

That means absolutely nothing as international agreements don;t suddenly end with the forming of a new government, its a key feature of them.


Brexiteers can believe everything they want, in fact many of them do but it doesn't change the fact that negotiations are closed until the red lines are removed.

Water John

If there is one defection between Tues and Wed, she cannot recommend Johnson to the Queen to be PM.

trellheim

But unless Johnson drops red lines the WA is going nowhere.

What red lines do you think he’s about to drop?

they are not his red lines and it will be a new government that will look very different ( resist, if you will, the description of clown cars )

new PM could have a thatcher/falklands moment on Iran but thats a hefty step up in international relations.

international agreements don;t suddenly end with the forming of a new government, its a key feature of them.

true - if they are ratified - which the WA very specifically is not, its what all the kerfuffle is about.

KildareP

trellheim wrote: »

they are not his red lines and it will be a new government that will look very different ( resist, if you will, the description of clown cars )

new PM could have a thatcher/falklands moment on Iran but thats a hefty step up in international relations.



true - if they are ratified - which the WA very specifically is not, its what all the kerfuffle is about.

Not his red lines but the UK's.

Johnson or Hunt taking up residence in #10 does absolutely nothing to change the current state of play, no more than changing solicitor by itself will change the outcome of divorce proceedings.

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

An international agreement or treaty does not become defunct with a change of government, that's not the way it works. The government of the day negotiates on behalf of 'the state' and it's essentially 'the state' that signs the agreement. A new government can't come in and say 'that agreement no longer applies now that we are in power'.

trellheim

ok a few people picking me up here -> the WA isnt in force because they havent/wont ratify it.... International agreements need ratification, in this case the WA needs to be voted through by Parliament before it has any obligation under the WA.

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

ok a few people picking me up here -> the WA isnt in force because they havent/wont ratify it.... International agreements need ratification, in this case the WA needs to be voted through by Parliament before it has any obligation under the WA.

That is indeed correct, the WA is not law because the UK Parliament have not ratified it. But that does not mean it can be replaced. It took two and a half years to negotiate and was signed by the UK government and the 27 states. The UK parliament refusing to ratify it and saying it wants a different agreement is purely an internal British matter (as Coveney pointed out yesterday).

Stop moaning ffs

trellheim wrote: »

ok a few people picking me up here -> the WA isnt in force because they havent/wont ratify it.... International agreements need ratification, in this case the WA needs to be voted through by Parliament before it has any obligation under the WA.

And they can’t conjure up a new one even by October it would be impossible.
And even then the EU27 haven’t seen or agreed to this new fantasy document.
So the WA as negotiated by the Eu and uk is still there and going nowhere.

VinLieger

Strazdas wrote: »

That is indeed correct, the WA is not law because the UK Parliament have not ratified it. But that does not mean it can be replaced. It took two and a half years to negotiate and was signed by the UK government and the 27 states. The UK parliament refusing to ratify it and saying it wants a different agreement is purely an internal British matter (as Coveney pointed out yesterday).

Indeed once again the problems stem from how the UK have chosen to do things, in this case the government signing the agreement prior to it being ratified by parliament. It is not up to the EU to fix this problem.

Popeleo

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Also and I'm not sure if or how this might effect things but a Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has been charged with a crime - serious one at that.

Another Brexiteer bathed in glory... the Conservative MP for Dover, of all places, has been charged by the CPS with 3 counts of sexual assault against 2 women between 2007 and 2016.

He was suspended from the party in November 2017 after "serious allegations" against him but readmitted in December 2018 when May needed votes against a no confidence motion.

However, he's not due in court until September 6th, so if he was found guilty, any Westminster Brexit arithmetic probably wouldn't be affected unless there is another extension or two.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-49072464

Strazdas

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed once again the problems stem from how the UK have chosen to do things, in this case the government signing the agreement prior to it being ratified by parliament. It is not up to the EU to fix this problem.

Yes, if Ireland and the UK were negotiating a treaty for two and a half years, signed it and then the Commons refused to ratify it, the solution would not be to negotiate a new agreement. It would be ratify it or else the treaty is dead.

Tell me how

trellheim wrote: »

true - if they are ratified - which the WA very specifically is not, its what all the kerfuffle is about.

Pretty sure poster was talking about GFA.

An Claidheamh

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So the border is Ireland's problem, not the UK's.

Wow, what a lazy joke of a country Britain chooses to be.

Anyway, violence in the UK against HM finest subjects will be the UK's problem, not Ireland’s.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1153305713772552194

Attempt to have Boris out before he's in! How can he go to the palace when it appears he can't command confidence in the HoC?

trellheim

Tell me how wrote: »

Pretty sure poster was talking about GFA.

If so then my fault for picking OP up wrong , I assumed it was about the WA. Apologies.

Now : I would love to be a fly on the wall when TM resigns to Liz

An Claidheamh

SNIP. Serious discussion only please.

LeinsterDub

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-rebels-threaten-to-join-lib-dems-to-thwart-boris-johnson-h6nzxdsdt

Even more talk. This week could get very interesting

As many as six Conservative MPs are due to hold talks with the Liberal Democrats this week with the aim of derailing Brexit and Boris Johnson’s premiership.