Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Water John

So what does TM say to the Queen? Remember there waiting in the wings to legally challenge if May recommends Johnson to the Queen.
Alan Duncan has been a Minister for a long time, he hasn't done this lightly. Then I presume he is very well acquainted with Johnson in the Foreign Office.

MadYaker

Jeremy Corbyn and Labour in general should be ashamed of themselves allowing this farce to continue for so long and doing pretty much nothing to hold the gov to task. No british politician is going to come out of this looking good. The next general election should be very interesting

Calina

I believe John Bercow has blocked the vote of confidence. So that drama delayed.

Water John

IWT such a vote could only be held after Johnson becomes PM. He could immediately face a vote of no confidence, from the Remainers or more those that see the great folly of Crash Out Brexit, if he doesn't deal with their concerns in his opening speech to Parliament.

Enzokk

Jo Swinson will be the new leader of the Liberal Democrats.

https://twitter.com/VictoriaPeckham/status/1153327872272142336?s=20

As the tweet states, only Labour has not had a female leader yet.

Itssoeasy

Can someone clear something up for me. I've heard two different times but is it 9pm tonight or 9am tomorrow the results of the leadership contest will be announced ?

Water John

Sure it's tomorrow. Postal vote closed at 5pm this evening. How long to count to tally and count 160,000 votes?

Loafing Oaf

Water John wrote: »

I presume he is very well acquainted with Johnson in the Foreign Office.

Well he does like the company of other men if that's what you're getting at...

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Can someone clear something up for me. I've heard two different times but is it 9pm tonight or 9am tomorrow the results of the leadership contest will be announced ?

"Late in the morning" according to RTE
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0722/1064504-tory-party-week/

Nody

MadYaker wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn and Labour in general should be ashamed of themselves allowing this farce to continue for so long and doing pretty much nothing to hold the gov to task. No british politician is going to come out of this looking good. The next general election should be very interesting

I'd argue depressing simply because Corbyn's mishandling of Brexit which will end up in yet another minority government in thrall of Brexiteers most likely. If Corbyn could look beyond his own world view for a second he should be the next PM by a wide margin; as it stands chances are it will end up with Tory + Brexit party + DUP or similar set up instead.

MrMusician18

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, not quite.

TM has to recommend a person to become PM who can control a majority in the HoC. Could she, in all conscience, say Johnson would command a majority with ministers resigning ahead of her own resignation?

Even if she does name Johnson as her successor, how long before further resignations or events reduce his current majority of 3/5ths of 5/8ths of FA to no majority at all? Then there will be a vote of No Confidence as night follows day.

Her alternative, which I am sure she will not follow, will be to call on someone like Dominic Grieve to try to form a Government of National Unity, with Tory, Labour, SNP, and Lib Dems plus any others to take the UK out of its current trajectory to crash out, followed by economic doom.

Johnson will get the gig, lie, lie, and tell a few untruths, and fail horribly.

Forecast: GE in in October, extension granted by the EU. New Gov revokes Art 50 and vows to never speak about Brexit again, but draws up plans to strengthen the UK position within the EU by joining the Euro, and strengthen the EU military capabilities by providing two aircraft carriers that the UK has no planes that can land on them.

We will see.

I wouldn't put too much money on that, some form of European exit had to take place now, unless there's a second vote. I think the only way out is some form of associate membership that sees the UK outside the political structures but inside the market structures of the EU.

It's the least harmful delivery of the referendum and you could probably engineer a decent grudging majority in the country and parliament for it.

Unfortunately for the UK such a scenario would see it's global influence very much diminished.

Joe_ Public

The moves against Johnson, while welcome, feel a bit premature to my mind. I suspect they might be better off at least letting Johnson get his foot in the door, then verifying where exactly he intends to go and then go in hard on him if and when necessary. This way, they're making it look as if it's more personal than about brexit which it probably is in many ways. Will be interesting but just not sure this is the correct strategy.

As for Corbyn, i would blame him for many things, not least the lack of heart he put into the referendum campaigning in 2015, but laying any significant blame for any of this on his door is a bit unfair imo. This is almost exclusively a conservative production. Cameron 50%, May 40% and 10% for those hard right macho men egging them on.

Joe_ Public

Water John wrote: »

So what does TM say to the Queen? Remember there waiting in the wings to legally challenge if May recommends Johnson to the Queen.
Alan Duncan has been a Minister for a long time, he hasn't done this lightly. Then I presume he is very well acquainted with Johnson in the Foreign Office.

Apparently went by the self-styled nickname "the pooper scooper" when they were both in the FO, as in scooping up the mess left behind by Johnson was basically his task while in the job.

Leroy42

When people say TM must tell the queen of her successor and they have confidence, what would happen if she didn't?

Can't she simply tell her she thinks he has the confidence of HoC? I mean it is little more than a ceremonial event isn't it?

Inquitus

What time do we get the new tomorrow?

Water John

Leroy, no it isn't ceremonial. May has to believe he can have the support of the HOC, that is the basis on which she recommends his name to the Queen.

Leroy42

Or what? Surely only an actual vote can prove it either way so on what basis can the queen not accept?

trellheim

Remember House is in recess 25 july-3 september so only 3 days for a no confidence vote , really only 1.

I dont think anyone would topple it before it got started, although anything can happen I'd say it will be when it returns on 3 september.

Joe_ Public

I imagine the so-called "Gawkward" squad of MPs, however many there are, would have to approach May in some way and inform her they will not support Johnson to be PM, thus making it impossible for her to recommend him to HM. No idea really what happens in that situation, presumably May then stays on as PM until at least parliament reconvenes.

With my conspiracy hat on, i wonder if there's something machievellian May could do with such information, as in a bribe of some sort as it were. Given she approached the queen in 2017 on the basis she'd already signed an arrangement with the DUP (when in fact she hadn't), it's not as if she'd be above that kind of shenanigans. But that, to be fair, is deep conspiracy theory territory!

Loafing Oaf

Inquitus wrote: »

What time do we get the new tomorrow?

You've clearly got high hopes for the Johnson premiership:P

Spectator says it will be announced at 11

Joe_ Public

Public unconvinced Brexit will take place by October 31st

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/22/public-unconvinced-brexit-will-take-place-october-

"Worryingly for Johnson, even Conservative and Leave voters are sceptical. Half (50%) of those who voted for Brexit back in 2016 think it’s unlikely to have taken place by November, as do 48% of Tory voters."

A good sign i reckon that some sort of realism is setting in finally. Even tory and leave voters having a hard time signing up to "optimism" it seems.

Headshot

I suspect Tom Watson is teetering on the edge of leaving Labour.

Water John

He's been dragging them along, not sure why he would go, now.

Headshot

Water John wrote: »

He's been dragging them along, not sure why he would go, now.

Tom was backing automatic exclusions for antisemitism and of course Corbyn rejects it.

I feel at this point Tom can only do so much to save his party at this stage.

Water John

There has been moves on that issue in the last few days. This is only an hour old;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/22/jeremy-corbyn-ramps-up-plans-to-expel-antisemites-from-party

Headshot

Water John wrote: »

There has been moves on that issue in the last few days. This is only an hour old;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/22/jeremy-corbyn-ramps-up-plans-to-expel-antisemites-from-party

I heard about this that Corbyn wants to speed up the process of expelling antisemites from the party but still not going as far as some people like Watson want to go in setting up an automatic exclusions for antisemitism

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Public unconvinced Brexit will take place by October 31st

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/22/public-unconvinced-brexit-will-take-place-october-

"Worryingly for Johnson, even Conservative and Leave voters are sceptical. Half (50%) of those who voted for Brexit back in 2016 think it’s unlikely to have taken place by November, as do 48% of Tory voters."

A good sign i reckon that some sort of realism is setting in finally. Even tory and leave voters having a hard time signing up to "optimism" it seems.

I expect it's more of a feeling that their elected leader will let them down and fail to deliver more than anything else.
I doubt that many have changed their minds about whether Brexit should or should not happen, more despair that it is increasingly likely not to happen.

Stop moaning ffs

How have none of those being anti semetic not been named?

Water John

Interesting plain talking from the English man,AIB CEO.
https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-richard-pym-glenties-boris-4734743-Jul2019/

Joe_ Public

Deleted User wrote: »

I expect it's more of a feeling that their elected leader will let them down and fail to deliver more than anything else.
I doubt that many have changed their minds about whether Brexit should or should not happen, more despair that it is increasingly likely not to happen.

Yeah, poll doesnt say anything about their preferences, just their level of optimism or, as case may be, pessimism. They should also be aware that if brexit hasnt happened by Nov 1 then the odds of it ever happening go sharply upwards i would think. Not sure if it brings second referendum back into play, but longer this does go on, more the brexiteers should be drawn towards it if it does at least get no deal on some sort of ballot paper. At least, that's a theory anyway.

4068ac1elhodqr

All ready for the Boris?

Many markets folks are calling Short on EURGBP and for £Buy.
But overnight the current 0.895 could well see .915.
So hold on to your eurodolla before any correction occurs.

However if your off to sunny Espania from LHR with sterling in hand, you'll want to get EUR (tonight).
Of course just not at the airport (worst place to change).

Mod note: - as long as this is a political prediction rather than financial advice its ok, the latter being more suitable to another forum