Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Nody

Water John wrote: »

Interesting plain talking from the English man,AIB CEO.
https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-richard-pym-glenties-boris-4734743-Jul2019/

Loved this quote:

Pym added that Oxford University has produced the majority of UK prime ministers over the last century.

“For those of you struggling with the difference between Oxford and Cambridge, it is simple. Both are extraordinary world class universities, but Oxford produces the prime ministers and Cambridge the Russian spies. It is hard to know which group has done more harm to the country,” he added.

4068ac1elhodqr

^Yes, (fx rate jump) might well simply be the very 1st and most immediate effect of announcement tommorow, and another 24hr uncertain wait before taking office and fully announcing his team on Weds.
The second, will be more pressure (this time from the EU) on an alternative to the backstop (of course there isn't any real alternative).

The more the other chap speaks (Hunt) the more wise he seems, well compared to Boris anyway.

trellheim

paddy power offering 2:1 on no deal, 1 to 3 on anything else . In fairness theyve not been wrong so far .

the weary wisdom seems to be that the clown car has to make a few circuits of the big top first before reality comes out to play

Strazdas

Jazmine Big Dragonfly wrote: »

^Yes, (fx rate jump) might well simply be the very 1st and most immediate effect of announcement tommorow, and another 24hr uncertain wait before taking office and fully announcing his team on Weds.
The second, will be more pressure (this time from the EU) on an alternative to the backstop (of course there isn't any real alternative).

The more the other chap speaks (Hunt) the more wise he seems, well compared to Boris anyway.

I've said it before, the backstop being scrapped means a hard border is a certainty.

If the UK leaves the SMCU forever, is now an ex-EU member and 'third country', what possible incentive would there be for them do anything to solve the border question?

Joe_ Public

Just watching Sajid Javid get grilled by Yvette Cooper at a home affairs committee sitting today. She's asking him about the magical technological solutions for the N.Ireland border that Sajid has been waxing lyrically about. Trust me, he says, i've seen them and they work and will be ready to roll within 2-3 years as long as the other side cooperates with us. Ok, she says, give me some examples. Well, er, um....there's the trusted trader system, he says, and then there's some waffle about intelligence gathering, neither of which, she thinks, suggests much by way of new technological innovations. In the end, after a number of attempts to get some examples out of him, he helpfully suggests that he'll go away and talk to some people and then write to her, providing some examples.

It's like they're dealing with children with some of this stuff. This guy wanted to be leader of his country for pity's sake!

Nody

Strazdas wrote: »

If the UK leaves the SMCU forever, is now an ex-EU member and 'third country', what possible incentive would there be for them do anything to solve the border question?

About 50% of their trade do sound like a pretty good incitement as a starting point (remember the trade deal etc. will be dependent on the 3 issues from the WA being resolved or EU will simply point to them and wait).

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1153351348756369408

I live in Vancouver which has a boarder with the USA. Not a chance in hell you would call it frictionless in the slightest. How he was allowed to say this and not get called on it is beyond a joke.

If I tried to go to America the same way people go to NI from ROI right now, I'd be in a cage with a bag over my head.

A Shropshire Lad

Its a disgrace that Boris will be elected PM without being properly scrutinised about his plans for Brexit. He comes out with random stuff and there he never seems to get put under real questioning about the realities.

Maybe there is just a general lack of good interviewers, or a general lack of interest in the details. Peoples attention spans are short now, perhaps the quick soundbite and hair ruffle is what the public prefer !

I think it will be a sad day for the UK when Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, but I suppose we get the leaders we deserve.

BonnieSituation

Strazdas wrote: »

I've said it before, the backstop being scrapped means a hard border is a certainty.

If the UK leaves the SMCU forever, is now an ex-EU member and 'third country', what possible incentive would there be for them do anything to solve the border question?

The legally binding part of the GFA that makes a UI a future solution.

Strazdas

Nody wrote: »

About 50% of their trade do sound like a pretty good incitement as a starting point (remember the trade deal etc. will be dependent on the 3 issues from the WA being resolved or EU will simply point to them and wait).

A considerable number of the current hard Brexiteers are saying they don't even want a future trade deal (ie. they want No Deal)

BonnieSituation

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Its a disgrace that Boris will be elected PM without being properly scrutinised about his plans for Brexit. He comes out with random stuff and there he never seems to get put under real questioning about the realities.

Maybe there is just a general lack of good interviewers, or a general lack of interest in the details. Peoples attention spans are short now, perhaps the quick soundbite and hair ruffle is what the public prefer !

Maybe he means the border at Point Roberts?

Strazdas

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The legally binding part of the GFA that makes a UI a future solution.

Johnson is threatening to default on the £39bn as we speak.......

4068ac1elhodqr

trellheim wrote: »

paddy power offering 2:1 on no deal, 1 to 3 on anything else . In fairness theyve not been wrong so far .

the weary wisdom seems to be that the clown car has to make a few circuits of the big top first before reality comes out to play

No deal seems likely, however that market is specifc to 2019 only. Indeed another few laps in the clown car might mean another GE, or time extension for more juggling performances into 2020 (and beyond).

Nody

Strazdas wrote: »

A considerable number of the current hard Brexiteers are saying they don't even want a future trade deal (ie. they want No Deal)

Well strictly speaking what they do say is that don't want the current deal but expects instead to be allowed to cut a series of micro deals on a per issue basis instead (also known as cherry picking). They keep insisting on the no deal because they think it will scare EU to change the deal if they are plucky enough and I'll be honest come 31st Oct. I'm very curious how many brexiteers who will really back a no deal, hard crash out, brexit in the end. Now I do believe that some really want that but it's for more personal reasons (i.e. vulture funds offering lucrative jobs after they leave etc. as a return for the faovur) but they can't really state "I want to UK to crash out so I can make millions" as an argument for such a stand.

Frank Bullitt

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Maybe he means the border at Point Roberts?

Even that boarder is a nightmare, and you have to go into the immigration hut for a little chat with the edgy boarder guards.

BonnieSituation

Gintonious wrote: »

Even that boarder is a nightmare, and you have to go into the immigration hut for a little chat with the edgy boarder guards.

Well, you don't "have to". But you should

lawred2

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1153351348756369408

I live in Vancouver which has a boarder with the USA. Not a chance in hell you would call it frictionless in the slightest. How he was allowed to say this and not get called on it is beyond a joke.

If I tried to go to America the same way people go to NI from ROI right now, I'd be in a cage with a bag over my head.

I've sat in queues on both sides of that border between the US and Canada. It bears no resemblance whatever to Ireland/NI.

Sam Russell

lawred2 wrote: »

I've sat in queues on both sides of that border between the US and Canada. It bears no resemblance whatever to Ireland/NI.

People are not effected by the NI border because of the CTA.

The border is concerned with goods - SM standards, CU tariffs, and agricuture prducts - also VAT controls.

That cannot be seamless no matter what tehnology is used. they cannot inspect a heiffer for hormoes or BSE or a chicken for pathegens disguised by chlorine washing without actual inspecting the animal by a Vet.

Even a sea border is only likely to be effective with significant good will on both sides.

Frank Bullitt

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Well, you don't "have to". But you should

I have a friend who crossed the boarder into the states and chased by a helicopter and cops, spent a while in a prison for his troubles.

I always recommend going into the hut. Always.

Mr.Nice Guy

Normally the victory speech of a new party leader is fairly dull fare and what you'd expect. Johnson's speech - assuming there's not an almighty upset and it's Hunt - will be very interesting in terms of what he says and doesn't say. Will he double down on the bin the backstop rhetoric or will it be more measured?

Itssoeasy

I don't see how or why Theresa May could stop boris Johnson becoming prime minister.if she was seen to have done that then regardless of what you might think of Boris Johnson it would reflect badly on her. I also don't think the queen can refuse to ask Boris Johnson to "form a government" because she is a constitutional monarch.

Itssoeasy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Normally the victory speech of a new party leader is fairly dull fare and what you'd expect. Johnson's speech - assuming there's not an almighty upset and it's Hunt - will be very interesting in terms of what he says and doesn't say. Will he double down on the bin the backstop rhetoric or will it be more measured?

I mean almighty upset is being kind. I mean has there been any hint it's not going to be boris Johnson ?

Tell me how

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I mean almighty upset is being kind. I mean has there been any hint it's not going to be boris Johnson ?

It's been so obvious that its going to be Johnson it is a wonder why Hunt didn't withdraw and give him more time to whip the EU in to shape.

(Maybe their systems wouldn't allow that given there was more than Hunt in the race at the outset.)

Sam Russell

Tell me how wrote: »

It's been so obvious that its going to be Johnson it is a wonder why Hunt didn't withdraw and give him more time to whip the EU in to shape.

(Maybe their systems wouldn't allow that given there was more than Hunt in the race at the outset.)

You could ask why BJ des not withdraw as so many Tory MPs are saying they will move away from the Party,particularly if TM tells him that they have approached her to indicate that.

Leroy42

There is nothing stopping the UK leaving next week.

Legally I mean?

Hermy

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How have none of those being anti semetic not been named?

Is the exact nature of the antisemitism known? While there is much mention of it in the news I haven't yet heard anything of the specific nature of it.

LeinsterDub

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is nothing stopping the UK leaving next week.

Legally I mean?

There is nothing stopping any country leaving tomorrow if that want.

declanflynn

Maybe Johnston is doing what he should be doing b4 negotiating a deal with anyone, setting out from an extreme position then moving a bit while the other side move a bit and a deal is agreed (assuming the deal is renegotiated ) I know that's a big assumption.
He cant be as stupid as he acts and must have good advicers

Tell me how

declanflynn wrote: »

Maybe Johnston is doing what he should be doing b4 negotiating a deal with anyone, setting out from an extreme position then moving a bit while the other side move a bit and a deal is agreed (assuming the deal is renegotiated ) I know that's a big assumption.
He cant be as stupid as he acts and must have good advicers

I'd like to hear who advised him to wave a kipper around last week and talk about EU rules when the law he was referring to is a UK government one.

J Mysterio

Boris Johnson: Fit To Be Prime Minister? on Channel 4 now