Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I thought you claimed to be an independent nation. Did no-one tell Leo?

Next snarky comment will net you a ban. Stop it, please.

20silkcut

Peregrinus wrote: »

A "no" vote doesn't create a mandate to revoke. All it tells you is that the majority does not want to leave with no agreement; it tells you nothing about what they do want. They might, for example, want to leave on the terms of the WA as negotiated. Or on some yet softer terms that are readily negotiable, if only the UK modifies its red lines.

If you want a mandate to revoke Article 50, seek a mandate to revoke article 50.

Perhaps the EU could offer an unlimited extension???

As long as any perceived mandate for no deal is removed then such an extension could not be as damaging.
The deadlines looming every few months with no deal on the table is what’s doing the most damage in my opinion.

Tell me how

I think we have yet to see the implications of the Brexit process thus far.
For 3 years, it seems that UK government has put all attention in to Brexit (while the Labour opposition focus on looking amateurish).

This at a time when their austerity program should have come to an end. Issues with crime, policing, education, healthcare, housing etc seem to have had no serious conversation or action from a government perspective and while you still have departments responsible for these, the news at the top surely has meant things haven't been operating as they should be.

Stop moaning ffs

Hermy wrote: »

Is the exact nature of the antisemitism known? While there is much mention of it in the news I haven't yet heard anything of the specific nature of it.

Slightly OT but I think it’s wll a very obvious campaign to take down Corbyn and it’s not worked.

Stop moaning ffs

The UK finding out it’s special relationship with the US isn’t that special. And a taste of whts to come in those trade deals too I’d imagine

https://twitter.com/jonsnowc4/status/1153400045825384453?s=21

reslfj

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Everyone sensible hopes Brexit will never happen, but there is an upside for the EU to a hard Brexit - it will be an utter shambles for the UK and a very clear demonstration to all leavers/nationalists/chancers that EU membership is really valuable.

And as I have written earlier if the UK will try a hard /'No Deal' Brexit the timing - Oct 31. - is near optimum for the EU27.

UK's dependency on imported food is highest in the the winter/early spring period.
The world market demands for and prices on pork is very, very high now and in the next 24-48 months due to African Swine Fever in China. High prices on pork will ensure demand and acceptable prices on many other meat products e.g. beef.
Large parts of the Danish, Dutch, Belgian and French farmers will not - the coming 2-4 years - be hit much by an Oct. 31 Brexit.
Farmers are very important voter groups in e.g. France.

There could easily be a "let's get the hard Brexit over with" autumn-mood in one or more EU27 member states - and one member is enough for a 'No Deal' to happen.

I think, it will not happen if there is a reasonable hope for the WA being ratified or an A50 revoke.
But I do say, the mood can easily get into pessimistic territory by October.


Lars

Tell me how

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Slightly OT but I think it’s wll a very obvious campaign to take down Corbyn and it’s not worked.

I'm not sure if it's as strategic as that.
It has been used (to some degree) for this purpose but surely if it was entirely intentional, they wouldn't have picked something so damaging to the party image.

History is going to rip Labour to shreds during the Brexit A50 period.

Professor Moriarty

Tell me how wrote: »

I'm not sure if it's as strategic as that.
It has been used (to some degree) for this purpose but surely if it was entirely intentional, they wouldn't have picked something so damaging to the party image.

History is going to rip Labour to shreds during the Brexit A50 period.

The electorate will do that, probably before Christmas. Unless they ditch Corbyn.

Nody

leitrim4life wrote: »

Seems to me that locals get a distinct 5 day advantage, https://www.youtube.com/embed/T3-UlSe-AqM

They can apply for certain jobs 5 days early without any limitations for the company to hire a non Swiss employee; how is that "effectively excluding EU citizens from getting jobs"? Most positions are open for at least two to three weeks if not longer...

Leroy42

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Slightly OT but I think it’s wll a very obvious campaign to take down Corbyn and it’s not worked.

I have heard this argument before. But to believe it, and I don't for a second not think that certain segments of the media are hyping it up to put pressure on Corbyn/take pressure off Tory) but you then have to believe that a large amount of the members of the Labour party have also bought into this.

So what you then have is a political party with little or no faith in its leader. No matter how you look at it then is not a good idea for anyone.

Stop moaning ffs

Leroy42 wrote: »

I have heard this argument before. But to believe it, and I don't for a second not think that certain segments of the media are hyping it up to put pressure on Corbyn/take pressure off Tory) but you then have to believe that a large amount of the members of the Labour party have also bought into this.

So what you then have is a political party with little or no faith in its leader. No matter how you look at it then is not a good idea for anyone.

the concerted and relentless onslaught against him across all media in the uk since even before he took up the leadership tells its own story I think.
It looks like a very definite attempt to take him down at all costs and has been rolling for years now. Even before brexit.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

But No Deal was never the will of the people. It was never suggested. By no one at all.

So why should No Deal be afforded this level of official acceptance? If the will is to be respected then surely the deal must be the only option (if only one option to be voted on/).

The WA meets all the criteria of the ref. End FoM, leave EU, end annual payments, leave ECJ.

No Deal has been dreamt up by those that can see that any deal is clearly worse than EU membership and so won't to torch the whole lot rather than face the truth

"Leave the EU" is such a capacious mandate that it's meaningless so we now see vested interests manifesting their interests (though, crucially not themselves) via the equally vapid "Respecting the will of the people" mandate for a crash out Brexit. Norway is objectively not in the EU. It's in parts of the EU but "Leave the EU absolutely" was not on the ballot paper.

This is why May's deal failed so many times. Any attempt to define Brexit will collapse the coalition of angry seniors, foreign oligarchs, press barons, politicians and perpetually vexed nationalists. As a collective, they want mutually exclusive things from Brexit so it can never be defined as a result. No Deal is being presented as the only democratic way forward because it is as vague as Leave was in 2016.

Sam Russell

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, not quite.


Johnson will get the gig, lie, lie, and tell a few untruths, and fail horribly.

Forecast: GE in in October, extension granted by the EU. New Gov revokes Art 50 and vows to never speak about Brexit again, but draws up plans to strengthen the UK position within the EU by joining the Euro, and strengthen the EU military capabilities by providing two aircraft carriers that the UK has no planes that can land on them.

We will see.

I wouldn't put too much money on that, some form of European exit had to take place now, unless there's a second vote. I think the only way out is some form of associate membership that sees the UK outside the political structures but inside the market structures of the EU.

It's the least harmful delivery of the referendum and you could probably engineer a decent grudging majority in the country and parliament for it.

Unfortunately for the UK such a scenario would see it's global influence very much diminished.

In my 'forecast' I predicted a GE. That is a second vote, and the new Gov is not going to be the Tories. So revoke becomes a sensible way out, and double down on that by becoming fervent Europhiles.

It is the only way of pulling Brexit out of the fire and regaining some of their good international reputation. Look what is happening in the Gulf. USA has refused to get involved, and now they are trying to get the EU involved - now that takes some neck.

We will see what unfolds. We have been waiting years but there is a sense of complete stasis about it.

Leroy42

Tell me how wrote: »

I think we have yet to see the implications of the Brexit process thus far.
For 3 years, it seems that UK government has put all attention in to Brexit (while the Labour opposition focus on looking amateurish).

This at a time when their austerity program should have come to an end. Issues with crime, policing, education, healthcare, housing etc seem to have had no serious conversation or action from a government perspective and while you still have departments responsible for these, the news at the top surely has meant things haven't been operating as they should be.

FDI investment is down, GDP is slowing. Other countries are refusing to roll over agreements, the US is pushing hard to show the UK who is boss and what it expects.

The evidence is everywhere is one is willing to look. But I fully agree that the UK population seems almost accepting that after such a long period of austerity that Brexit will necessitate yeet another period. When other countries are looking at the other side, and even starting to talk about preparing for the next downturn, the UK seem actively want to precipitate it.

It terms of crime, etc. Crime is way up, knife crime in particular. This, in large part, is down to the massive reduction in police numbers. Schools are looking to shorten the school week to save some money. There is plenty of talk about the lack of housing, the lack of any chance of young people ever owning their own homes.

It is just that all of that, the terrible failure of TM to achieve anything, has been swept aside due to the talk about Brexit. It is why a party like BP can get such support when they offer absolutely nothing to deal with any of these problems. Not just that their ideas may not work, they simply have no ideas.

Tell me how

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

the concerted and relentless onslaught against him across all media in the uk since even before he took up the leadership tells its own story I think.
It looks like a very definite attempt to take him down at all costs and has been rolling for years now. Even before brexit.

He isn't a darling of the media, no question. And particularly those who may be of a more right aligned, conservative approach.

But, he has been an unmitigated disaster of an opposition leader who is supposed to challenge the government, and present a viable alternative to the people.

Stop moaning ffs

Really brilliant episode of the Irish passport on brexit. featuring
Northern Ireland Retail Consortium director Aodhán Connolly On what’s going to happen in NI and University College London professor Ronan McCrea and a clip from Paschal Donohue who dropped a serious nugget I wasn’t aware of.

Ireland is preparing a no deal budget for September, which suggests that the UK aren’t going to be getting any further extensions.


Brilliant listen for McRae especially though. Have a go

https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-irish-passport/id1246162545?i=1000444975590

Mr.Wemmick

I am here in the UK and Brexit continues to be a farce. Kipper BJ with more of the same auld bluster and foolery - waiting for him to swear he will do right by the JAMs and end austerity, which I think he might've done already. We need the Brexit mess to end with an almighty bang, think BJ just might do it.. and inadvertently throw a big light on how much of the country is saturated with tory lies and Nigel Nonsense.

From Jon Snow.. reporting from Unicorn land.

https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/1153400045825384453

FrancieBrady

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ireland is preparing a no deal budget for September, which suggests that the UK aren’t going to be getting any further extensions.

That might be reading too much into it. I would imagine there are preparations going on for a number of scenarios. Imagine the roaring if they weren't.

Leroy42

Could an option for Johnson be to follow the line of the US, in that debt means nothing really. Simpy borrow their way out of the problems?

So borrow Bns to cover over the loss due to No Deal, borrow to spend money on police, schools etc. Sure the price will have to paid eventually, but he is looking at the short term.

If No Deal goes as some say (badly) he could be gone in a few months. Borrow massively and he extends he time he gets to be PM, and feck the consequences. Yu would have people like IDS, JRM etc all saying that No Deal was a success, the Project Fear failed again.

Lackadaisical

The US has a lot more latitude to borrow because the US$ is an absolutely gigantic interchange currency and economy. The Euro also has some of that kind of clout, albeit a lot newer and less established, it's still quite powerful and the Eurozone economy's absolutely huge.

If the UK were to go on a borrowing spree or printing money you'd be into an immediate Sterling crisis.

The UK could end up learning the *very* hard way that it is not the USA, nor is it equivalent to the EU.

sink

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

From Jon Snow.. reporting from Unicorn land.

https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/1153400045825384453

I've heard many reports that this is entirely inaccurate. The US offered joint naval patrols in the Straight of Hormuz but this was rejected by the UK because they did not want to be seen taking the same position as the US on Iran. This was before Iran seized the oil tanker. Now the US is still offering full support but wants they UK to join it sanctions regime and potentially back military action in the future should Iran break sanctions. The UK is again rejecting the US overture and want to cooperate with it's European allies in finding a more diplomatic solution i.e. a way for Iran to climb down in return for greater sanctions relief.

jem

a lot of talk about some of the tory's helping libs and lab to stop no-deal brexit and they in effect have stopped borris from effectivly closing HOC.
But surly if he calls a general election in say mid october they will ineffect automatically crashout on 31st

Purgative

Just seen YT clip where its suggested that if Bojo gets it, there could be enough Tory defections (six) to deny him the premiership.


Interesting times.

VinLieger

jem wrote: »

a lot of talk about some of the tory's helping libs and lab to stop no-deal brexit and they in effect have stopped borris from effectivly closing HOC.
But surly if he calls a general election in say mid october they will ineffect automatically crashout on 31st

The EU have previously stated that in the case of a GE there could be another extension, its not guaranteed but definitely possible

Stop moaning ffs

If Johnson asks for an extension it’s the political end for him and the conservatives I’d say.

Stop moaning ffs

Education Minister Anne Milton has resigned.
How many more will go I wonder?

Seth Brundle

Education minister Anne Milton has become the latest Conservative MP to resign from government ahead of the announcement of the party's new leader

In a letter to Prime Minister Theresa May, Milton says she has "grave concerns about leaving the EU without a deal".

The Guildford MP adds: "I believe strongly that parliament should continue to play a central role in approving a deal, and that we must leave the EU in a responsible manner."

https://news.sky.com/story/live-jeremy-hunt-or-boris-johnson-to-be-named-new-conservative-party-leader-11768682?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral


edit: slow interwebs here - Stop moaning ffs posted before me

swampgas

sink wrote: »

I've heard many reports that this is entirely inaccurate. The US offered joint naval patrols in the Straight of Hormuz but this was rejected by the UK because they did not want to be seen taking the same position as the US on Iran. This was before Iran seized the oil tanker. Now the US is still offering full support but wants they UK to join it sanctions regime and potentially back military action in the future should Iran break sanctions. The UK is again rejecting the US overture and want to cooperate with it's European allies in finding a more diplomatic solution i.e. a way for Iran to climb down in return for greater sanctions relief.

Have you a source for that? (I have no problem believing it).

The UK may well find themselves badly caught out as they try to stay on good diplomatic terms with both the US and the EU. The US were pretty up front that the Uk was of less use to them politically (in terms of influencing world affairs) outside the EU rather than inside it. The UK will find themselves sidelined to a greater and greater extent as they head towards hard Brexit and splendid isolation.

Harry Palmr

So that's four resignations isn't it?

ancapailldorcha

Harry Palmr wrote: »

So that's four resignations isn't it?

Only from the government. They are still MP's.