Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Johnson might get Brexit alright, but it will not be a No Deal Brexit. Parliament will ensure that. As for the DUP I think he will just soften the Red Lines somehow. Sure what the F do they really care about NI anyway, and a plague on all your houses.

Border in the sea. He’ll make this happen and sell it to all as the way forward. Backstop then is totally unnecessary.
He gets to look like a hero for delivering brexit and they leave with the agreement on the table.
Happily ever after for everyone except the DUP

Spanish Eyes

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Border in the sea. He’ll make this happen and sell it to all as the way forward. Backstop then is totally unnecessary.
He gets to look like a hero for delivering brexit and they leave with the agreement on the table.
Happily ever after for everyone except the DUP

Exactly, it is a no brainer. I doubt anyone in NI would care apart from the die hards. Hopefully.

I do realise there are numbers involved here in trying to get it through Parliament without the DUP who will no doubt vote against, but I do think there are enough rational people in Parliament who may support the Government from all sides on this.

He could play a blinder yet

Stop moaning ffs

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Exactly, it is a no brainer. I doubt anyone in NI would care apart from the die hards. Hopefully.

I do realise there are numbers involved here in trying to get it through Parliament without the DUP who will no doubt vote against, but I do think there are enough rational people in Parliament who may support the Government from all sides on this.

He could play a blinder yet

You have all kinds of machinations and deals being made cross parties to stop no deal.
You’re going to see border in the sea making the backstop irrelevant and unneeded become the thing. Probably sooner than we think.
There’s the way forward.
They’d all row in behind this in large numbers
DUP goose is in n the oven and about to be cooked.

First Up

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

Happily ever after for everyone except the DUP

Who will stop supporting the Tory government, even if enough Labour, Lib Dems, SNP and PC back that version of Brexit.

That means an election sooner or later - probably sooner as the other parties won't resist the smell of blood once the Brexit WA is sorted.

Stop moaning ffs

*border in the sea would freak DUP out but it would also possibly dampen any notions or moves to a United ireland. At least in the short term. That might placate them. If that’s even possible.

Stop moaning ffs

First Up wrote: »

Who will stop supporting the Tory government, even if enough Labour, Lib Dems, SNP and PC back that version of Brexit.

That means an election sooner or later - probably sooner as the other parties won't resist the smell of blood once the Brexit WA is sorted.

Think johnson and the Tories would sail through in a post exit election. Especially given the alternatives and no doubt relentless victory chants of we delivered brexit.
Who knows though

splinter65

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

He got a 2:1 not a first. According to his biographer on LBC earlier. It was Cameron got the first and it always rankles Boris.

True. But it’s totally ridiculous to describe him as anything approaching stupid. It’s such a lazy observation.

Spanish Eyes

splinter65 wrote: »

True. But it’s totally ridiculous to describe him as anything approaching stupid. It’s such a lazy observation.

He plays the game at being a funny eccentric buffoon. But I bet he is as hard nosed as the rest of them.

My one concern is that he appears to be lazy, talks a mile a minute, no one takes him seriously as a Statesman. But they may be surprised.

I bet his minions will do all the work and he will parrot the results. So be it.

No one will care if things settle down on a mutually agreed basis. He has a chance now to get rid of the stupid red lines and dress it up as a victory. I hope he will do this. May was far too rigid and silly in that regard, and had no escape route.

Stop moaning ffs

splinter65 wrote: »

True. But it’s totally ridiculous to describe him as anything approaching stupid. It’s such a lazy observation.

I don’t think he’s even a bit stupid. It’s all a big character act. Built to allow him say the occasional stupid not too directly racist or controversial thing in order to get away with it

J Mysterio

Absolutely damning article in the Irish Times. The Irish Times view on BJ.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/the-irish-times-view-on-boris-johnson-britain-s-new-nadir-1.3964815?mode=amp

How far can Britain fall? The Brexit debacle has already left the country bitterly divided, its parliament paralysed, its influence diminished and its reputation shattered.

And now, a new nadir: Boris Johnson is set to become prime minister. That means things could still get a lot worse.

Johnson is a profoundly unserious man wildly unsuited to high office. That’s to put it generously. In normal times, his ineptitude – on full display during his time as foreign secretary – would hold his country back. In these times of crisis, his character flaws could prove catastrophic.

Enzokk

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Border in the sea. He’ll make this happen and sell it to all as the way forward. Backstop then is totally unnecessary.
He gets to look like a hero for delivering brexit and they leave with the agreement on the table.
Happily ever after for everyone except the DUP

He needs DUP votes so he cannot go with the sea border. He could get Labour votes to get it through but the DUP would not vote in a vote of confidence and bring the government down, so why would Labour back the deal? If he gets Brexit through the arithmetic stays the same and if he sacrifices the DUP they will lose him crucial votes elsewhere.

He could try and get a general election as soon as he has gotten Brexit through, but the backstop would be in the WA and the Brexit Party will spin that as a loss so they would hurt them at the polls. Basically it is a mess, and his proclamations on the leadership election bid has made it worse for him.

Stop moaning ffs

Enzokk wrote: »

He needs DUP votes so he cannot go with the sea border. He could get Labour votes to get it through but the DUP would not vote in a vote of confidence and bring the government down, so why would Labour back the deal? If he gets Brexit through the arithmetic stays the same and if he sacrifices the DUP they will lose him crucial votes elsewhere.

He could try and get a general election as soon as he has gotten Brexit through, but the backstop would be in the WA and the Brexit Party will spin that as a loss so they would hurt them at the polls. Basically it is a mess, and his proclamations on the leadership election bid has made it worse for him.

Listening to various and numerous MPs the last few days they’re all railing against no deal. So if he found a workaround and that being border in the sea he’d have support across all parties by the looks of it. Simply to avoid no deal. He would no longer need the DUP.
It gets rid of the dreaded backstop. And none of them not one have mentioned being worried about the imaginary and balatantly false notion that it’s somehow sacrificing NI.
This I wish paddy power would take bets on cos I’d back it as a certainty

Joe_ Public

Labour still wouldn't support an agreement simply based on a change to the backstop, that isn't their issue with the WA as it currently stands. Though you might get enough labour rebels to squeeze it through the hoc, but I suspect if it was all that simple we wouldn't be in the position we're now in.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

Absolutely damning article in the Irish Times. The Irish Times view on BJ.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/the-irish-times-view-on-boris-johnson-britain-s-new-nadir-1.3964815?mode=amp

Johnson is a profoundly unserious man wildly unsuited to high office.

That's a very fair comment. He's a spoofer and bluffer who doesn't really believe in anything, bar his own reputation and image

Inquitus

Well here we go, all aboard the Bojo Express, destination unknown, calamity perhaps unavoidable. Qudos to the man, selling himself out to anything, and everything, that might have given him a sniff of making PM has finally paid off, not a shred of dignity left intact, widely regarded at home and abroad as a buffoon, but there he sits as PM of the once Great Britain.

Spanish Eyes

Remember though, that he was elected Leader of the Tory Party by a sliver of the electorate, all died in the wool Tories, and this person is inflicted on the UK by that tiny cohort.

Taking back control is right.

serfboard

Inquitus wrote: »

Well here we go, all aboard the Bojo Express, destination unknown

Indeed. I find myself quite intrigued at seeing how he is going to (try to) resolve the Brexit problem he helped to create.

Beechwoodspark

Same old same old from Bo Johnson

I suspect he will end up p1ssing off all sides

Firing squad from all angles (metaphor).

Resign while talking scutter

Get plenty of lucrative Board memberships from Tory England and republican America.

Job done for Boris.

A Shropshire Lad

Shortest serving PM on the cards I reckon

Hes got a parlamentary majority of 2, for the moment

lawred2

So who has actually jumped the Tory ship so far?

20silkcut

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Shortest serving PM on the cards I reckon

Hes got a parlamentary majority of 2, for the moment

For a clever cunning politician with no morals or ideals he has a few cards left to play on brexit. In fairness despite everything it is a fairly plum job being PM of the fifth largest economy in the world.
As serfboard says it will be interesting to see what moves he makes.
His ultimate goal now is to stay in No 10 for as long as possible. Power will seduce an ego like his. Everyone knows that he has to adjust his current stated position and adopt a hint of pragmatism to do that. It’s a case of what gets thrown under which bus.
I mean someone like Dominic Raab truly would be the shortest serving PM in history. I reckon Boris will avoid that accolade. It’s an easier ask than becoming PM in the first place IMO.
Of course I’d love to be wrong on all this.

Quin_Dub

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Border in the sea. He’ll make this happen and sell it to all as the way forward. Backstop then is totally unnecessary.
He gets to look like a hero for delivering brexit and they leave with the agreement on the table.
Happily ever after for everyone except the DUP

Whether or not he goes for "Border in the Irish Sea" depends a lot on what is more important to him.

Delivering Brexit or remaining in power? - I'm not altogether certain he can do both.

If he throws the DUP under the bus , he could very well deliver Brexit with a deal. However in doing so he loses his majority and then there's a GE that he might struggle to win.`

The only pathway for him is if he delivers Brexit via an Irish sea border (and absent changing the red lines there really isn't another way) then he has to hope that that fatally punctures any support for Farage and his cohort of "to be named later" GE candidates.

With FPTP and the Labour party in endless chaos that might just be enough to get him over the line..

However if the Lib Dems show up well , then it's probably a hung parliament and the Tories are out as no one will partner with them.

Professor Moriarty

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Same old same old from Bo Johnson

I suspect he will end up p1ssing off all sides

Firing squad from all angles (metaphor).

Resign while talking scutter

Get plenty of lucrative Board memberships from Tory England and republican America.

Job done for Boris.

He got €60,000 plus travel for a one hour speech in Dublin last January.

Stop moaning ffs

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Whether or not he goes for "Border in the Irish Sea" depends a lot on what is more important to him.

Delivering Brexit or remaining in power? - I'm not altogether certain he can do both.

If he throws the DUP under the bus , he could very well deliver Brexit with a deal. However in doing so he loses his majority and then there's a GE that he might struggle to win.`

The only pathway for him is if he delivers Brexit via an Irish sea border (and absent changing the red lines there really isn't another way) then he has to hope that that fatally punctures any support for Farage and his cohort of "to be named later" GE candidates.

With FPTP and the Labour party in endless chaos that might just be enough to get him over the line..

However if the Lib Dems show up well , then it's probably a hung parliament and the Tories are out as no one will partner with them.

He’s got support from a lot of MPs from all parties if he drops the no deal idea. He’s already cannibalised the brexit party numbers but if he delivers brexit by doing the border in the sea, he’ll be safe enough in any GE I’d reckon

No significant number in HOC want no deal. They’ll all row in behind a deal if the many MPs all parties I’ve been listening to the past few days are any guide.
They’ll redo the PD and border in the sea. Plain sailing.

Flip side, there might be so many defections, Lib Dem’s and SNP and greens form an alliance and take over and drop the whole thing with the promise of a possible rerun of the referendum as a condition to alliance. But one where everyone is far better informed you’d hope

Spanish Eyes

Problem is I don't really think anyone wants to leave the EU on a No Deal basis anymore.

It was a cat call against the Brexit Party.

I bet the UK Government would love to stay in now. But they cannot really.

So it is stopping the Red Lines now. And he will do it. And be hailed for it. They don't care about NI anyway.

But we will all be happy with that. Hopefully that is where he will go.

Itssoeasy

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Border in the sea. He’ll make this happen and sell it to all as the way forward. Backstop then is totally unnecessary.
He gets to look like a hero for delivering brexit and they leave with the agreement on the table.
Happily ever after for everyone except the DUP

Whether or not he goes for "Border in the Irish Sea" depends a lot on what is more important to him.

Delivering Brexit or remaining in power? - I'm not altogether certain he can do both.

If he throws the DUP under the bus , he could very well deliver Brexit with a deal. However in doing so he loses his majority and then there's a GE that he might struggle to win.`

The only pathway for him is if he delivers Brexit via an Irish sea border (and absent changing the red lines there really isn't another way) then he has to hope that that fatally punctures any support for Farage and his cohort of "to be named later" GE candidates.

With FPTP and the Labour party in endless chaos that might just be enough to get him over the line..

However if the Lib Dems show up well , then it's probably a hung parliament and the Tories are out as no one will partner with them.

So you think the good showing in the local elections and a new leader will continue the momentum they have again ?

BluePlanet

I can't see him, nor most Tories throwing the DUP under the bus.
There's a old tribal loyalty at play there and there is no way they'll give us a win over them.

trellheim

“It’s the arrogance. It’s the contempt. That’s what gets me. It’s Gordon Brown’s apparent belief that he can just trample on the democratic will of the British people. It’s at moments like this that I think the political world has gone mad, and I am alone in detecting the gigantic fraud.”

"They voted for Anthony Charles Lynton Blair to serve as their leader. They were at no stage invited to vote on whether Gordon Brown should be PM… They voted for Tony, and yet they now get Gordon, and a transition about as democratically proper as the transition from Claudius to Nero. It is a scandal. Why are we all conniving in this stitch-up? This is nothing less than a palace coup… with North Korean servility, the Labour Party has handed power over to the brooding Scottish power-maniac.”

"The extraordinary thing is that it looks as though he will now be in 10 Downing Street for three years, and without a mandate from the British people. No one elected Gordon Brown as Prime Minister…”

“Gordon Brown could appease public indignation over that, and secure the democratic mandate he needs, by asking the public to vote at once on him, on the new EU treaty, and on the implications of the devolutionary settlement. Let’s have an election without delay

Boris Johnson on Gordon Brown's accession to PM in 2007.

trellheim

Twitter reporting that David Frost will be the EU sherpa

here's some old interview
https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-advisor-david-frost-whole-industries-could-be-destroyed-by-hard-brexit-article-50-2016-10?r=US&IR=T

a norway type eh ? From 2016. If still this position then red lines are shifting

He wrote in a Telegraph article in June that Brexit would be "our most complex negotiation ever," and warned that "we can't afford to get it wrong."

Frost called for a positive approach to negotiations, and suggested that the UK to adopt a Norway-style transitional arrangement. In that scenario, the UK would remain in the European single market, a free trade agreement between EU countries.

He said: "We should say that we intend, after exit, to retain this status for say five years and to use that period to reflect and if necessary negotiate a Free Trade Agreement like Canada's, if that is what we want to do, or to keep Norway status if we don't."

Beechwoodspark

David Frost?!?

Ohhhh

Not THE David frost !!