Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Mr.Nice Guy

I don't think he's throwing the DUP under a bus as he's soon going to have a majority of just 2, including them. And soon there will be negotiations with the DUP over the next phase of their confidence-and-supply deal. According to Beth Rigby, a source told her the DUP will be getting more cash:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1153676117489934336

The DUP don't want no deal. Their ideal scenario would be for the Irish government to be seen to back down and swallow pride. I think with that in mind they will urge Johnson to go all out for a time limit on the backstop. I listened to Bertie Ahern's recent interview with Dunphy and he seemed to be advocating for the government to compromise in this way.

Johnson's speech to the Commons outlining his plan for Brexit will be very interesting. If he indicates he will go for a time limit or unilateral exit from the backstop then that suggests the DUP's influence is being felt. I think if the DUP are happy with what they hear, the ERG will go along with it.

Then the pressure will come on our government from the DUP and Tories to consent to some sort of time limit. Varadkar will then have to make the call whether he will be willing to accept such a thing, or whether it would bring down his own government were he to do so. I'm not sure what he will do.

I don't like the idea of a time limit as it seems to assume that 5/7/10 years down the line Britain will be in a more stable and sensible state and may have a different perspective. I'm not sure that will be the case as the evidence since 2016 doesn't paint that picture.

My sense is Johnson will fail to get anywhere just like May and will resort to a general election rather than crash out without a deal. But who knows!

trellheim

exactly my view as well I do think it would lead to an immediate GE here though if there is any cave in. Its a national govt for a reason on this issue

Stop moaning ffs

Look over at the onslaught Leo’s getting just this evening for the mishandling of the Bailey scenario, the cyncical timing of its release(today To bury it under the Boris story).

No way he’ll cave. He can’t anyway. Eu call the shots not ireland.

First Up

BluePlanet wrote:

I can't see him, nor most Tories throwing the DUP under the bus. There's a old tribal loyalty at play there and there is no way they'll give us a win over them.

I doubt Boris suffers much from tribal loyalty; there are bigger prizes in play.

The only question is the HoC arithmetic. I'd give him a better chance than May of horsetrading his way to enough cross party support to make the DUP votes redundant and get them out on Oct 31. A win for Boris.

He'll then go to the country and given that Corbyn is un-electable, the odds are good they'll get back in. A win for Boris and the Torys.

The DUP will throw a fit but it keeps them in the UK and the North will come out of it well (best of both worlds.) A win for business, agriculture and common sense.

Technology can be applied at ports between Britain and Ireland and Ireland and the continent to provide enough scrutiny to preserve the Single Market. A win for everyone.

That's the solution; he just has to deliver it.

Professor Moriarty

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I don't think he's throwing the DUP under a bus as he's soon going to have a majority of just 2, including them. And soon there will be negotiations with the DUP over the next phase of their confidence-and-supply deal. According to Beth Rigby, a source told her the DUP will be getting more cash:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1153676117489934336

The DUP don't want no deal. Their ideal scenario would be for the Irish government to be seen to back down and swallow pride. I think with that in mind they will urge Johnson to go all out for a time limit on the backstop. I listened to Bertie Ahern's recent interview with Dunphy and he seemed to be advocating for the government to compromise in this way.

Johnson's speech to the Commons outlining his plan for Brexit will be very interesting. If he indicates he will go for a time limit or unilateral exit from the backstop then that suggests the DUP's influence is being felt. I think if the DUP are happy with what they hear, the ERG will go along with it.

Then the pressure will come on our government from the DUP and Tories to consent to some sort of time limit. Varadkar will then have to make the call whether he will be willing to accept such a thing, or whether it would bring down his own government were he to do so. I'm not sure what he will do.

I don't like the idea of a time limit as it seems to assume that 5/7/10 years down the line Britain will be in a more stable and sensible state and may have a different perspective. I'm not sure that will be the case as the evidence since 2016 doesn't paint that picture.

My sense is Johnson will fail to get anywhere just like May and will resort to a general election rather than crash out without a deal. But who knows!

I'm afraid that ship has sailed. Johnson categorically stated that "the backstop must come out" and dismissed accepting it even with a time limit or an exit clause:

“No to time limits or unilateral escape hatches or all these elaborate devices, glosses, codicils and so on that you could apply to the backstop.”

Mind you, he's a liar so who knows.

lawred2

Is it within our gift to accept time limits on a backstop anyway?

trellheim

I'm afraid that ship has sailed. Johnson categorically stated that "the backstop must come out" and dismissed accepting it even with a time limit or an exit clause:

“No to time limits or unilateral escape hatches or all these elaborate devices, glosses, codicils and so on that you could apply to the backstop.”

As someone once said that was any oul muck you put up to get you elected, now you have to govern ( if you didnt believe otherwise, remember hes been fired twice for lying)

he cant be done in a 1922 committee leadership vote for a year so the only thing that can bring him down is a vote of no confidence, GE and a different party getting into power

Professor Moriarty

trellheim wrote: »

As someone once said that was any oul muck you put up to get you elected, now you have to govern

he cant be done in a 1922 committee leadership vote for a year so the only thing that can bring him down is a vote of no confidence, GE and a different party getting into power

Campaign in poetry and govern in prose.

Stop moaning ffs

lawred2 wrote: »

Is it within our gift to accept time limits on a backstop anyway?

It is not.
Although we insisted on it it became a bigger issue the Eu realising we could be used as a backdoor into Europe. That’s without border violence supply line disruption etc being taken into account.

They won’t ‘cave’ on the backstop. I wish people would stop banging on about that. It’s not going to happen. Not you op. Just generally.

A Shropshire Lad

I cant wait to see the Cabinet Boris assembles.

Gove as Northern Ireland secretary would be interesting seeing as what his views were about the Good Friday Agreement

johnnyskeleton

I wonder if he would offer the SNP a further independence vote in exchange for backing no deal. Then reneging after no deal is done?

trellheim

I cant wait to see the Cabinet Boris assembles.

You can hum the fking Avengers Assemble if you want but it will be clowns running into the ring no matter what way you look at it.

reslfj

The Federation of German Industries (BDI): On the Decision of the British Conservatives to Appoint Boris Johnson as Party Leader:
"Threats from London are Harmful and Will Come Back Like a Boomerang"

https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/bdi-on-the-decision-of-the-british-conservatives-to-appoint-boris-johnson-as-party-leader-threats-from-london-are-harmful-and-will-come-back-like-a-boomerang--812518860.html

But maybe more importantly:
"The withdrawal agreement must not be renegotiated."

Lars

PS! PS! BDI is organising the German auto industry via "German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA)"

McGiver

Folks, this is a spectacular drama. I see it basically like this.

With May we have had a very slow train on a one-way track almost crashing until the last moment, steady slow motion.
'This lady wasn't for turning' Brexit

With Johnson we're going to get a Porsche car crash at 250 kph, probably accompanied by an explosion of the said car and fireworks of the wrecked car parts, it will be quick and spectacular.
'Do or die' Brexit

Professor Moriarty

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I wonder if he would offer the SNP a further independence vote in exchange for backing no deal. Then reneging after no deal is done?

Zero chance of that happening. The SNP would lose all credibility as a party of principle. So would Johnson and the Tories, if they had any to begin with.

Itssoeasy

So lads Jim Hacker or Boris Johnson ?

NapoleonInRags

First Up wrote: »

I doubt Boris suffers much from tribal loyalty; there are bigger prizes in play.

The only question is the HoC arithmetic. I'd give him a better chance than May of horsetrading his way to enough cross party support to make the DUP votes redundant and get them out on Oct 31. A win for Boris.

He'll then go to the country and given that Corbyn is un-electable, the odds are good they'll get back in. A win for Boris and the Torys.

The DUP will throw a fit but it keeps them in the UK and the North will come out of it well (best of both worlds.) A win for business, agriculture and common sense.

Technology can be applied at ports between Britain and Ireland and Ireland and the continent to provide enough scrutiny to preserve the Single Market. A win for everyone.

That's the solution; he just has to deliver it.

I can't see how this is possible. If he sells the DUP down the Swanee he will also lose a share of ERG/hardline Brexiteer votes. How could he possibly make the numbers work in such a scenario?

Thargor

Enzokk wrote: »

There has been discussion on the Panorama program on Brexit in the previous pages, just wanted to link to it on Youtube for those that missed it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LG-CeYzxvw

This is brilliant thanks, surprised at this realistic tone from the BBC.

54and56

Quin_Dub wrote: »

If he throws the DUP under the bus , he could very well deliver Brexit with a deal. However in doing so he loses his majority and then there's a GE that he might struggle to win.

I can see Boris doing the following:-

1. "Honeymoon" period with no HoC sitting where he woo's all Brexiteers with his "Do or Die" by Oct 31st mantra.
2. Some meetings in Europe with Merkel, Macron, Barnier and possibly Varadkar where he blusters about how he has new proposals and they are being well received etc etc (total BS).
3. As Oct 31st approaches and there's no sign of a new deal some language is inserted into the political declaration about how the Backstop will be temporary (already stated) and completely replaced as soon as the alternative arrangements BJ has proposed can be shown to work. More blustering and can do statements by BJ that this is in fact a victory.
4. The WA as it stands with a tweaked political declaration is voted through the HoC with Labour Leavers supporting but the very hardest of the ERG (those who never voted for it i.e. Baker, Francois, Bridgen etc along with DUP not and crying betrayal.
5. GE is called and with Brexit "delivered", the Brexit Party's bubble burst, remain cheerleaders the Lib Dems without a cause and Corbyn still leading the LP Boris spins a fantastic story about how he will make a success of Brexit and the UK will regain it's place in the world with Trump jumping in to endorse Boris blah blah blah the Tories go from being on their death bed to winning an outright majority.

That's what my tea leaves are telling me anyway!!

First Up

NapoleonInRags wrote:

I can't see how this is possible. If he sells the DUP down the Swanee he will also lose a share of ERG/hardline Brexiteer votes. How could he possibly make the numbers work in such a scenario?

It is about the arithmetic but there are enough votes that can be lured across the House floor to compensate for both the DUP and ERG.

Besides even an unpalatable choice gets swallowed when its the best available. "The art of the possible" and all that. That applies to the ERG too.

trellheim

4. The WA as it stands with a tweaked political declaration is voted through the HoC with Labour Leavers supporting but the very hardest of the ERG (those who never voted for it i.e. Baker, Francois, Bridgen etc along with DUP not and crying betrayal.

where ya gonna get the numbers , a tweaked PD has failed twice/three times now ?

J Mysterio

Micheál Martin has been quite forthright on Boris now also.

Boris Johnson’s impending appointment as prime minister “raises enormous fears” for the future of Anglo-Irish relations and British policy towards Northern Ireland, Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin has said.

In pointed remarks delivered at the MacGill summer school in Glenties, Co Donegal, Mr Martin suggested Mr Johnson had failed to impress Irish officials and politicians in his most recent cabinet posting.

“Anyone in Dublin who met (Mr Johnson) during his time as foreign secretary will tell you the many ways in which he failed to show the slightest level of understanding about the operations of the Good Friday Agreement or the deep problems raised by Brexit. ”

Mr Martin raised doubts about the conservative leader’s knowledge of Northern Irish issues. “It is clear that he is single minded in his ambition, but I don’t think anyone can credibly say that he has thought through how to promote prosperity and reconciliation in Northern Ireland.”

Irish Times

BorneTobyWilde

Can Boris Johnson run for President of the United States if he wants ?

A Shropshire Lad

Many in the Tory party, particulary on the brexiteer side, would have a very black and white view towards Northern Ireland, and Ireland in general.

Once, when Boris was mayor of London, he was invited to a Saint Patricks day event at the Irish Embassy in London. He declined the offer stating that it was probably a fundraiser for 'Republicans' in NI.

BobbyBobberson

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Can Boris Johnson run for President of the United States if he wants ?

Renounced his citizenship to lighten the tax bill.

BobbyBobberson

Anyone watching newsnight? Priti Patel tipped to be home secretary which will be something to say the least.

Ben Done

Newsnight reporting Priti Patel to be Home Secretary.


Might be time to stock up the larder - she has threatened to starve us out of it in order to make us bend to the UK's will on Brexit.

Tell me how

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Anyone watching newsnight? Priti Patel tipped to be home secretary which will be something to say the least.

Not watching newsnight but heard Sajid, Davis, Raab, McVey, Patel mentioned as potential cabinet members.

I wouldn't trust the radio in that room!

BobbyBobberson

Some more info on possible cabinet.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1153777537803313159

BorneTobyWilde

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Anyone watching newsnight? Priti Patel tipped to be home secretary which will be something to say the least.

She must have dirt on him.