Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

WTO, as far as I know, doesn't deal with services. Is that correct? In which case even taking the POV that WTO isn't a bad option in terms of trade, what about services?

farmchoice

CelticRambler wrote: »

In order to trade, at the very least you need to agree terms. If Britain wants to trade with any country in the EU, they'll need to agree terms - or to put it another way, make a deal. UK can certainly try to go all-out no-deal WTO, but the fact that no other first, second or third world country operates like this should be a fairly clear sign that it's universally considered a stupidly bad idea ... except in Brexitopia.

Remember it's not just a question of Widget Mfrs Ltd of Scunthorpe deciding to sell their widgets to a German and getting on with it. If Hans in Hamburg wants to use that widget, he'll be looking for a CE mark on it. Where does Widget Mfrs get the CE mark? From the EU, through the process of agree inspections and the mutual recognition of standards. No deal = no recognition = no trade.

in the story of this lowly widget lies the secret to understanding the brexiter mind set and the true belief of the hard wto brexiteer from farage down.
they believe from the bottom of their hearts that a British widget is the best widget and Hans the hun in hamburg will go wild when he discovers he can no longer access the best little widget in the world as easily as he used to and he will blame his government and force them to immediately agree terms with the UK to secure him his widgets. the brits will now immediately hold the whip hand and have their way in negotiations.

in the days after no deal it will be easy to get a favorable deal from the Eu because the harsh reality of life without the UK will by then have hit home.

Gerry T

54&56 wrote:

I don't think the UK needs the agree anything with the EU or any other country in order to trade on WTO terms. Happy to be corrected though.

The UK submitted its WTO schedules, all WTO members have to approve them, the UK can ignore this but then one of the WTO countries can take a case against the UK, so in a round-about way all WTO countries have a say in the UKs participation in WTO trading.
Secondly as stated WTO doesn't cover services, off the top of my head UK exports are 70% service. Without a trade deal with the EU, which includes services, the UK is indeed in the dodo.

20silkcut

54&56 wrote: »

Couldn't agree more.

Politicians advocating WTO are either:-

1. Doing so out of self interest to play the hard man/woman leader type card.
2. Immune from the economic and social effects due to their existing wealth.
3. Deluded by nostalgia that the UK is still the global economic power it once was and will have serious leverage when negotiating from the weakest position possible (WTO) with the US, EU, China etc.

On the other hand people who are advocating and prepared to vote for a WTO Brexit are either:-

1. Immune from the economic and social effects due to their existing wealth and therefore the very elite that Farage rails against. These elite include (paradoxically enough) most of the Brexit Party leadership and backers e.g. Farage and Tice, Anne Widdicombe, Tim Martin, Lord Bamford, Aaron Banks, Annunziata Rees-Mogg et al plus about 65% of the blue rinse Conservative party membership.

2. Those who either have or feel they have nothing to lose as they have nothing. The UK equivalent of the forgotten rust belt which Trump so effectively tapped into. If you feel over looked and unimportant with nothing to lose you'll relish the opportunity to give the establishment a good kick in the goolies and see how they like a bit of chaos in their lives. Won't matter much to you as you already live a life of chaos which you feel can't get much worse no matter what happens and who knows maybe Johnny Foreigner will go home and you'll get that job he took from you??

I would add another point ,and your points are very well made, the destruction of the EU is a core aim of many brexiteers.
By forcing the EU to trade with Britain , under the threat of no deal ,outside the 4 freedoms.
They really are at nothing there.
Brexit failed to start a fire across Europe.
It actually galvanized unity across the EU.
As a beef farmer whose industry faces destruction in a crash out brexit and probable total collapse in my income I would rather see the EU maintain its unity than cave in to any brexiteers. And I say that with as much conviction and passion as any hard brexiteer has for the opposite view.

They have seriously underestimated the unity of the EU member states on this one.

Kermit.de.frog

Unbelievable they post this and get away with it. This is a LIE.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1134443104336003073


And they bloody well know that is selective footage. The baboons of course all believe it's real!

This video has now been posted numerous times by Brexit parties and politicians.

trellheim

1. Doing so out of self interest to play the hard man/woman leader type card.
2. Immune from the economic and social effects due to their existing wealth.
3. Deluded by nostalgia that the UK is still the global economic power it once was and will have serious leverage when negotiating from the weakest position possible (WTO) with the US, EU, China etc.

Thats not an either/or, its multiple choice ! Although UK is no.7 in GDP worldwide so not entirely Tanzania/Burkina faso levels.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Unbelievable they post this and get away with it. This is a LIE.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1134443104336003073


And they bloody well know that is selective footage. The baboons of course all believe it's real!

This video has now been posted numerous times by Brexit parties and politicians.

I always am amazed how worked up the Brexiteers get about stuff like this. So what if the EU are using certain tactics against them, what did they expect?

They only admit to having failed utterly to get anything from the EU in the last 40 years (according to their narrative) yet all of sudden think they will be able to out fox them for some reason.

Surely if they believe this video to be true, then they must also fear for any future FTA or similar. Why would such a duplicitous organisation suddenly change their tune?

firemansam4

Peregrinus wrote: »

No. Remember, if WA is eleminated on the first count, what happens next is that the WA votes - and only the WA votes - would be distributed according to the second preferences. So what the people who voted Remain have as their second preference is irrelevant; their first preferences are still effective.

Suppose on the first count the votes go like this:

No Deal - 36%
Remain - 34%
WA - 30%

On the second count, we elimiate WA and distribute those votes according to their second preferences. On the second count, therefore, the 34% who voted Remain will still be counted as voting remain; even if they all had the WA as their number two they won't be adversely affected in any way by the fact that the WA has been eliminated. (And exactly the same is true for the no deal votes, of course.

Lets suppose the 30% of WA votes have second preferences as follows:


No Deal: 10%
Remain: 15%
No second preference expressed: 5%

After the second count, the result will be:

No Deal: (35% + 10% 46%
Remain: (34% + 15% 49%
Non-transferrable: 5%

No-deal will then be eliminated as the less popular option and, as the only option left, Remain will be the chosen course of action.

Obviuosly, we could tweak this result by assuming a different spread of second preferences among the WA voters. But in a three-horse race like this, it's only the second preferences of the least popular optoin that will ever become relevant.

One big potential issue with this is, lets say we go with your figures as an example - You would only have a 34% vote for remain and a 66% vote for leave under 2 different conditions. This is the first preference vote of course.

Then after the second preference of votes it will be decided to remain in the EU.

This will be spun as a major betrayal of the British electorate by many over there, they will say that 2 referendums showed a majority of people wanted to leave the EU, yet they are being forced to stay against there will.

Im not saying that will be the correct assumption but it will be spun that way.

54and56

CelticRambler wrote: »

In order to trade, at the very least you need to agree terms. If Britain wants to trade with any country in the EU, they'll need to agree terms - or to put it another way, make a deal. UK can certainly try to go all-out no-deal WTO, but the fact that no other first, second or third world country operates like this should be a fairly clear sign that it's universally considered a stupidly bad idea ... except in Brexitopia.

Remember it's not just a question of Widget Mfrs Ltd of Scunthorpe deciding to sell their widgets to a German and getting on with it. If Hans in Hamburg wants to use that widget, he'll be looking for a CE mark on it. Where does Widget Mfrs get the CE mark? From the EU, through the process of agree inspections and the mutual recognition of standards. No deal = no recognition = no trade.

I get all that CR and I'm absolutely in agreement with you that WTO is a nice soundbite for the ERG type brigade but that the reality is far more complex as your CE mark example shows which means the impact will be far more sudden and widely felt that any of the ERGer's will ever admit but my (narrow) point is that if for reasons none of us can understand the UK does decide to press the self destruct button they don't actually need any agreement with the EU in order to trade (in a very limited and restricted manner) with the EU. They can simply adopt WTO rules and trade within the scope of what WTO facilitates. To expand that level of trade with the EU, something there'd be a clamour for immediately, they would have to do a deal with the EU but not initially. That's all I'm saying.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Unbelievable they post this and get away with it. This is a LIE.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1134443104336003073


And they bloody well know that is selective footage. The baboons of course all believe it's real!

This video has now been posted numerous times by Brexit parties and politicians.

But I thought they were discussing it as the UK using the Irish as an issue, not the EU using the Irish border as a way to keep the UK in the EU. This was in October 2018 as the backstop became the big issue for May. This was not about the EU using Ireland but the UK using Ireland and trying to get the backstop removed and then using Ireland as a bargaining chip in the future trade agreement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Z30FUmZoOg

That part starts around 1h30 in the video, there is a time stamp and they you can hear what they are discussing.

Leroy42 wrote: »

I always am amazed how worked up the Brexiteers get about stuff like this. So what if the EU are using certain tactics against them, what did they expect?

They only admit to having failed utterly to get anything from the EU in the last 40 years (according to their narrative) yet all of sudden think they will be able to out fox them for some reason.

Surely if they believe this video to be true, then they must also fear for any future FTA or similar. Why would such a duplicitous organisation suddenly change their tune?

But the EU is not using those tactics. They are using a small part of a discussion out of context to try and twist the words, and their supporters will lap it up and use it as another reason to leave the EU. This is disgusting behaviour, but what do you expect from those that don't care for laws.

Leroy42

Yes that is my understanding. Basically it is left to the individual companies to prove that their products meet the standards required in whichever country they are trying to sell into, as they will not be covered by national trade agreements backed by agreed regulation protocols.

So larger companies, will I assume, be able to have localised regulatory offices to help them with customs, but the vast majority of companies will be left to have their goods checked and verified directly upon import. Which of course would increase delivery times and costs and thus rule them out as a viable supplier, unless of course they do happen to make the worlds best widget.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

WTO, as far as I know, doesn't deal with services. Is that correct? In which case even taking the POV that WTO isn't a bad option in terms of trade, what about services?

I know CETA doesn't cover services and CETA must be superior to WTO rules else why would Canada and the EU have spent most of a decade negotiating the thing.

I'm pretty sure the WTO does not cover services.

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

But the EU is not using those tactics. They are using a small part of a discussion out of context to try and twist the words, and their supporters will lap it up and use it as another reason to leave the EU. This is disgusting behaviour, but what do you expect from those that don't care for laws.

Yes I am aware of that I was pointing out the issue with the argument even if one does that the line that the EU are somehow using it.

It is at the core of why people in the UK should be more questioning of both the Tories and Farage. Why would the UK, which under their stated view that the EU has taken them for a ride the last 40 years, suddenly be capable of not only taking them on but besting them when they are out of the group when they completely failed to do so whilst within the group.

CelticRambler

54&56 wrote: »

my (narrow) point is that if for reasons none of us can understand the UK does decide to press the self destruct button they don't actually need any agreement with the EU in order to trade (in a very limited and restricted manner) with the EU.

I acknowledge your point of view, when seen from a UK perspective but EU states can't unilaterally sign trade deals with third countries, and any EU-based customer would need a huge incentive to do business with such a third country when the EU has deals with hundreds of others. In essence, this go-it-alone policy is built entirely on the Best Little Widget In The World mentality described by farmchoice above.

Now if the Brexiteers succeed in dragging Britain out of the EU and into the 17th Century, with no deal (and no immediate WTO terms) in place and an absolute determination to show Remainers and the EU that unicornism makes sound business sense, the UK will be in for a long hard winter of several years. The side-effect of that will be to precipitate change in Scotland and Northern Ireland, so it's entirely possible that when GB comes back to the EU's negotiating table, it'll be as a Kingdom significantly reduced in size and Unity, and at least one third of the current WA will no longer be relevant.

54and56

trellheim wrote: »

Thats not an either/or, its multiple choice ! Although UK is no.7 in GDP worldwide so not entirely Tanzania/Burkina faso levels.

Well France and Germany are part of the EU so if you adjust the figures to lump the EU 27 together you get the following:-

USA $21,410,230 33%
EU Ex UK $16,114,430 25%
China $15,543,710 24%
Japan $5,362,220 8%
India $3,155,230 5%
UK $3,022,580 5%

The UK moves to 6th but at 5% it's a relative minnow to the three main blocks it will need to do deals with who between them represent 82% of the global economy.

In each case the UK will be negotiating, assuming there's a WTO Brexit, from a historically weak position against counterparts who are at least 5 times larger than it and IMHO in commercial negotiations David rarely beats Goliath as the simple economics load the dice heavily in Goliaths favour PLUS, as is a disaster in any negotiation, the UK will be under desperate time pressure to get deals done quickly which means the opposite side will absolutely take advantage and just sit back and wait until the UK cave at which point Farage, Boris, Raab and Co will either skulk away leaving others to pick up the mess as they have done before or they'll play the victim card claiming everyone is ganging up against the UK and it's time for everyone to show Battle of Britain spirit blah blah blah whilst the poor get poorer and the rich shrug their shoulders and play the blame game.

serfboard

54&56 wrote: »

Those who either have or feel they have nothing to lose as they have nothing. The UK equivalent of the forgotten rust belt which Trump so effectively tapped into. If you feel over looked and unimportant with nothing to lose you'll relish the opportunity to give the establishment a good kick in the goolies and see how they like a bit of chaos in their lives. Won't matter much to you as you already live a life of chaos which you feel can't get much worse no matter what happens and who knows maybe Johnny Foreigner will go home and you'll get that job he took from you??

Agree with this. The problem is though that the dispossessed have no clue what delights await them if No Deal goes through. Think that you have it bad now? You ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.

Think privatisation of the NHS, as advocated by Farage and Liam Fox, for starters.

54and56

serfboard wrote: »

Agree with this. The problem is though that the dispossessed have no clue what delights await them if No Deal goes through. Think that you have it bad now? You ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.

Think privatisation of the NHS, as advocated by Farage and Liam Fox, for starters.

Desperate people rarely have the luxury of thinking long term, they will often be poorly educated, live in poor conditions and exist week to week either on social welfare payments or minimum wage.

In an ideal world they should indeed take the time to understand the consequences of any Brexit option they vote for but the world they live in is far from ideal unfortunately.

These poor people are constantly being fed simplistic silver bullet type sound bites about how Brexit will "Take back control" and how the NHS (which many of them will regularly be users of) will be better off by £350m a week plus there's the promise from the WTOers that they'll get to keep the £39 Billion promised in the WA and maybe some of that will filter down to them.

They live in pain and the ERG types are promising to relieve that pain if only there could be a clean break from the EU on WTO rules.

The real irony is that it's the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems, who between them have been in Government since the 2nd World War, who are the ones who allowed such a large section of society to become so disenfranchised in the first place thus creating the perfect conditions for the likes of Farage and co to thrive.

Kermit.de.frog

Leroy42 wrote: »

I always am amazed how worked up the Brexiteers get about stuff like this. So what if the EU are using certain tactics against them, what did they expect?

They only admit to having failed utterly to get anything from the EU in the last 40 years (according to their narrative) yet all of sudden think they will be able to out fox them for some reason.

Surely if they believe this video to be true, then they must also fear for any future FTA or similar. Why would such a duplicitous organisation suddenly change their tune?

It's in the Express now.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1134530/Brexit-news-BBC-UK-EU-Michel-Barnier-European-Union-Theresa-May-Conservative-Party

Isn't that absolutely disgraceful. That is fake news right there. They are lying about that clip.

The full clip clearly shows they mean the UK intends to use Ireland. That part is cut out.

When told they are lying they just ignore it!

Zubeneschamali

54&56 wrote: »

Desperate people rarely have the luxury of thinking long term

The people voting for Brexit are not desperate, not starving, not serfs. They are in a country with low unemployment, good social services and benefits and the NHS.

They are voting for the people most likely to cut benefits and services, destroy employment and privatize the NHS.

Not because they are desperate, because they are ignorant and xenophobic and patriotic.

It is an outbreak of actual 19th century nationalism:

Capt. Jack: Do you want to see a guillotine in Piccadilly? Crew: No!
Capt. Jack: Want to call that raggedy-arse Napoleon your king!? Crew: No!
Capt. Jack: You want your children to sing the "La Marseillaise!?" Crew: No!

54and56

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The people voting for Brexit are not desperate, not starving, not serfs. They are in a country with low unemployment, good social services and benefits and the NHS.

The days of "low unemployment" being a proxy for a healthy economy are long gone given so many of the people classified as employed earn little more than enough to scrape by.

If low unemployment, good social services and benefits and the NHS is a measure of social well being why is poverty in the UK Systeminc and Tragic according to the UN?

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Pretty much everyone acknowledges that the UK should have steel submarines, no submarines, or submarines made of cheese.


Let's have a vote! I bet Cheesey McCheeseface wins!

Do like Lord Buckethead suggested, choose All Of The Above, and save £100Bn

A firm public commitment to build the 100-billion-pound renewal of Britain's Trident weapons system, followed by an equally firm commitment, privately, not to build it.

They're secret submarines, so no one will ever know.

Cancelling HS2 would save the £56Bn earmarked now , and avoid the same again in predictable overruns.


£200Bn could buy a lot of new hospitals or pay the EU contribution for ages.

Capt'n Midnight

As we all know some of the car makers brought forward their summer shutdown to reduce the impact of Brexit day. So I wasn't surprised that car volume is down 45% for April

Then I saw the graph :eek:





Ask any Brexiteer to explain it.
And then remind them that the 2022 Honda closure will drop it down another line and a half ( 160K cars)


https://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-48399741
And Trump is putting 5% on imports from Mexico which includes "Autos and auto parts ($93bn)" while still hassling China.
- Fiat Chrysler is down more than 5%.
- General Motors is down more than 4%.
- Ford is down more than 3%.
If any of those companies need to cut costs or delay investment it won't end well for their UK operations.

BonnieSituation

54&56 wrote: »

Desperate people rarely have the luxury of thinking long term, they will often be poorly educated, live in poor conditions and exist week to week either on social welfare payments or minimum wage.

In an ideal world they should indeed take the time to understand the consequences of any Brexit option they vote for but the world they live in is far from ideal unfortunately.

These poor people are constantly being fed simplistic silver bullet type sound bites about how Brexit will "Take back control" and how the NHS (which many of them will regularly be users of) will be better off by £350m a week plus there's the promise from the WTOers that they'll get to keep the £39 Billion promised in the WA and maybe some of that will filter down to them.

They live in pain and the ERG types are promising to relieve that pain if only there could be a clean break from the EU on WTO rules.

The real irony is that it's the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems, who between them have been in Government since the 2nd World War, who are the ones who allowed such a large section of society to become so disenfranchised in the first place thus creating the perfect conditions for the likes of Farage and co to thrive.

Blaming the lib Dems for the ills of society since WW2 is a bit much.

54and56

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Blaming the lib Dems for the ills of society since WW2 is a bit much.

I agree which is why I didn't.

They did however submit themselves to the Tory led Austerity program which regardless of whether you agree with its necessity or not (and I personally agree with it in general) means they significantly contributed to creating the large portion of UK society which is now disenfranchised and prone to the type of simplistic slogans of Farage & co.

listermint

54&56 wrote: »

I agree which is why I didn't.

They did however submit themselves to the Tory led Austerity program which regardless of whether you agree with its necessity or not (and I personally agree with it in general) means they significantly contributed to creating the large portion of UK society which is now disenfranchised and prone to the type of simplistic slogans of Farage & co.

Quite a large argument about a shadow government who failed to hole either to account.
Because they are as ineffective doing that we they would be in government.

Very poor politicians in the UK currently.

54and56

listermint wrote: »

Very poor politicians in the UK currently.

Of that there is little doubt and whilst I personally like Vince Cable I'm not sure Jo Swinson will maximise the opportunity that currently exists for the Lib Dems. She hasn't impressed me so far.

Corbyns Marxist mask is slipping and the Torys look like they'll go into a death spiral if they elect Boris or Raab.

All these people are struggling to control their own party's. What hope have they of dominating the EU, China or the US in trade negotiations.

It's both amazing and sad how far the UK has fallen and it looks like it's going to keep dropping for a long time yet.

Kermit.de.frog

This is not in the least bit patronising

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1134566384384532482

54and56

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is not in the least bit patronising

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1134566384384532482

It's just naive, if a few million quid would have enabled the infamous "alternative arrangement" technologies to facilitate an invisible border (which the UK civil service estimates won't be functional for at least 10 years) it would have crossed the negotiators minds before now given they have agreed a £39 Billion divorce bill.

It's actually a reflection of how poor most candidates for the Tory party are.

I'm glad I put a few quid on Rory Stewart at 8/1 yesterday to make it to the last two candidates. I reckon all he has to do is stay relatively quiet (repeating what he has already said) and just give each of the others enough rope to hang themselves so he is the only moderate candidate left by the time MPs pick the shortlist of two to go forward to the membership to vote on.

BonnieSituation

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is not in the least bit patronising

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1134566384384532482

They could get rid of the border in totality by having a border poll?

That seems more prudent from where I'm standing.

So after his Scottish gaffe the last day this is what he's giving to the Irish, a co-equal member of the EU?

My brain can't actually get into that headspace. It's beyond amazing!

So

serfboard

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is not in the least bit patronising

It’s not patronising, it’s deluded - a disease which most Tories seem to suffer from (and some in Labour like Jeremy Corbyn).