Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus

dublinman1990 wrote: »

. . . Also can someone tell me what the by-election is for in the UK parliament?

Chris Davies, Tory MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, in Wales, was convicted in March of offences under the Parliamentary Standards Act relating to certain expense claims he submitted. Under UK law, if an MP is convicted of a crime, if 10% of the voters in his constituency petition for him to be removed, he is expelled from parliament and his seat is declared vacant, and a bye-election follows. This has now happened to Davies.

As a result the government has already lost one vote in the Commons - Davies vote. Opinion polling strongly suggests that the Liberal Democrats are going to win the bye-election, so the opposition will then gain one vote.

boggerman1

That was some speech.oh ffs.Britain is truly up the sh1t with bojo in power.please EU,let them go on October 31 and end this farce

positron

Just speculating - Boris spends a lot (after borrowing from EU or Germany perhaps) and that in turn makes people feel a bit better and as if Brexit was the right thing... GBP will tank, but that's good for exporters, tax cuts for corporations, which brings in more jobs and in 5 years time so much water would have passed under the bridge and sick of discussing Brexit, thats' the new norm, and they will talk about how "great choices were made" by "visionary politicians" etc etc.

Method is his madness? Who knows?!!

MadYaker

I can't see a clear way forward without a general election first.

ArmaniJeanss

Penny Mordaunt (SecDef) resigns.
Bit of a surprise, ardent Brexiteer albeit a Hunt backer.

dublinman1990

positron wrote: »

Just speculating - Boris spends a lot (after borrowing from EU or Germany perhaps) and that in turn makes people feel a bit better and as if Brexit was the right thing... GBP will tank, but that's good for exporters, tax cuts for corporations, which brings in more jobs and in 5 years time so much water would have passed under the bridge and sick of discussing Brexit, thats' the new norm, and they will talk about how "great choices were made" by "visionary politicians" etc etc.

Method is his madness? Who knows?!!

If I am being honest here. If Brexit officially happens on the 31st of October. The stock markets & credit agencies based here & around the world will give Boris Johnson's government a fair & adequate response as to how their own public finances are doing when Brexit becomes official from that date. They did give a fair & adequate response in sending stock markets tumbling across the world when the referendum result of Leave was announced by the British electorate 3 years ago.

You have to look at the optics when dealing with the markets if you are in the UK. A lot of companies involved are major companies being associated with being based in the UK & investing to the UK. That brings in a lot of influence into how a country's economy is meant to have it's finances run properly. They are all saying, or making official statements to say, that Britain leaving the EU without an deal by the 31st of October will be very damaging for their own economy. Boris Johnson saying today that his government will attempt to re-negotiate a new deal by effectively tearing up the WA with a completely new deal is bordering on insane territory if you a major individual working in the global financial services industry backed up with quite a serious investment going into the country.

Anyway in other matters; Penny Mordaunt has resigned from her role as Defence Secretary. She will return to the backbenches along with Phillip Hammond & TM.

Roger_007

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Penny Mordaunt (SecDef) resigns.
Bit of a surprise, ardent Brexiteer albeit a Hunt backer.

Probably her phone didn't ring; realised she wasn't going to get a cabinet job and resigned before she was sacked or demoted.

Tell me how

MadYaker wrote: »

I can't see a clear way forward without a general election first.

Things have yet to take another turn before a GE happens I think.
Either Johnson will request an extension (really annoying his base) (after either failing to get the EU to renegotiate or failing to get the HoC to accept May's deal), or a vote of No Confidence will be called and passed, or they do actually leave without a deal.

Don't think there is anything to initiate a GE before something like one of the above happens and any one of them will be very interesting.

A GE will be significant firstly on what happens with Labour and whether JC is leading them in to it or not (will influence the mandate they campaign under) and depending on Labours position, the degree to which the Tories align themselves with or morph in to the Brexit Party.

1st dalkey dalkey

positron wrote: »

Just speculating - Boris spends a lot (after borrowing from EU or Germany perhaps) and that in turn makes people feel a bit better and as if Brexit was the right thing... GBP will tank, but that's good for exporters, tax cuts for corporations, which brings in more jobs and in 5 years time so much water would have passed under the bridge and sick of discussing Brexit, thats' the new norm, and they will talk about how "great choices were made" by "visionary politicians" etc etc.

Method is his madness? Who knows?!!

Large amounts of public spending might limit the job losses and increase the feel good factor temporarily.
But it will also drive up debt and its cost, especially if the pound tanks.
Already on 86% of GDP, that debt could head towards 100% if Brexit is followed by a recession, as many expect.
Credit ratings then come under scrutiny and the slippery slope becomes hard to avoid.

devnull

Boris saying in his speech essentially that people should stop underestimating the country was quite amusing, the whole problem with the UK is that they overestimate themselves already.

dublinman1990

Some interesting words from SF President Mary Lou McDonald via RTÉ News.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has said she has written to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson pressing him over Brexit, restoring devolved government in Northern Ireland and calling for the establishment of a "clear criteria" for the calling of an Irish unity referendum.

Ms McDonald said she wants to meet Mr Johnson in the coming days to discuss the issues.

"I have reminded the new Prime Minister of the requirement of the British Government to honour and implement their commitments under the Good Friday and subsequent Agreements. Agreements that are incompatible with Brexit," she said.

"The people of the north voted to remain within the EU and that vote must be respected.

"There is a pressing need to restore the powersharing institutions in the north, which has been held up by the DUP's continued denial of rights and the continued operation of that party's Confidence and Supply Agreement with the tories

Strazdas

Tell me how wrote: »

Things have yet to take another turn before a GE happens I think.
Either Johnson will request an extension (really annoying his base) (after either failing to get the EU to renegotiate or failing to get the HoC to accept May's deal), or a vote of No Confidence will be called and passed, or they do actually leave without a deal.

Don't think there is anything to initiate a GE before something like one of the above happens and any one of them will be very interesting.

A GE will be significant firstly on what happens with Labour and whether JC is leading them in to it or not (will influence the mandate they campaign under) and depending on Labours position, the degree to which the Tories align themselves with or morph in to the Brexit Party.

There are many who think Johnson is actually plotting for a snap general election, that this is the real plan. Tony Connelly is one such person and he said this afternoon that plenty in the EU think this is what Johnson is up to.

Stop moaning ffs

Strazdas wrote: »

There are many who think Johnson is actually plotting for a snap general election, that this is the real plan. Tony Connelly is one such person and he said this afternoon that plenty in the EU think this is what Johnson is up to.

Buys him an extension without having to be seen to renege on his word that they wouldn’t take on and leave on the 31st

Very cunning.

For Forks Sake

Roger_007 wrote: »

Probably her phone didn't ring; realised she wasn't going to get a cabinet job and resigned before she was sacked or demoted.

A quick flick through twitter would seem to point to the fact that the press are finding out about MPs being sacked from cabinet before the MPs themselves.

dublinman1990

Penny Mordaunt & Liam Fox were sacked from the British government.

The i Newspaper reports that 9 ministers of TM's government have been sacked by Boris Johnson.

For Forks Sake

dublinman1990 wrote: »

Penny Mordaunt & Liam Fox were sacked from the British government.

The i Newspaper reports that 9 ministers of TM's government have been sacked by Boris Johnson.

Karen Bradley is also gone, a move that will, in an unusual turn of events, probably be greeted with delight by all parties in the north

dublinman1990

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Karen Bradley is also gone, a move that will, in an unusual turn of events, probably be greeted with delight by all parties in the north

Yep. Here's her statement.

"I wish the new Prime Minister the very best and I look forward to seeing him lead with energy and determination, focused on the best interests of our country," she said.

Here is what Jon Williams; MD of RTÉ News, said on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1154066814256783362?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1154066814256783362&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rte.ie%2Fnews%2F2019%2F0724%2F1064943-johnson-tracker%2F

Sajid Javid is the 1st person to walk through No.10 tonight. He may become Hammond's replacement as Chancellor.

BluePlanet

BBC's reporting about Johnson's speech:

Boris Johnson’s approach to Brexit sounded very tough, with little room for manoeuvre.
A “new” deal without the “anti-democratic” Irish backstop to be agreed by 31 October - no ifs or buts - and it will be the EU’s fault if there’s no deal.
At first listen, some European diplomats were horrified. Others are combing through the text of his speech to find any wriggle room.
Might Mr Johnson’s concerns be met by providing some additional reassurance around the Withdrawal Agreement?
Could the Political Declaration be ripped up and replaced with something that looks like a more hands-off free trade agreement, with no customs union or alignment to EU rules?
At least they will be cheered by his intention to get moving quickly, rather than leaving things to the last minute - hence the terse letter of congratulation from the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, saying he looked forward to hearing the new prime minister’s plans “in detail.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-49073992

I'd say Johnson's plan is all unicorns and evidently it's the EU's fault if he doesn't get it.

MadYaker

Strazdas wrote: »

There are many who think Johnson is actually plotting for a snap general election, that this is the real plan. Tony Connelly is one such person and he said this afternoon that plenty in the EU think this is what Johnson is up to.

It's going to happen anyway so he might as well get in front of it

Likely puts brexit at risk though

gooch2k9

I know she wasn't much cop anyway but great shout changing NI secretary mid-way through the talks.

dublinman1990

Leo Varadkar will give the government's reaction on the Six One about Boris Johnson becoming PM this evening.

brickster69

Rees Mogg & Bill Cash going into No. 10

Stop moaning ffs

Mogg???

What doing??

Wow

dublinman1990

Varadkar is now on RTÉ 6.1 News with Vivienne Traynor.

And oh God. Rees-Mogg getting something with BJ's government. This day keeps getting weirder & weirder.

Professor Moriarty

dublinman1990 wrote: »

Varadkar is now on RTÉ 6.1 News with Vivienne Traynor.

And oh God. Rees-Mogg getting something with BJ's government. This day keeps getting weirder & weirder.

Pritti Patel probably getting a job. Threatened to starve Ireland. Wanted to reintroduce death penalty. Make a great Home Secretary.

FrancieBrady

Has any of the savvy UK media taken a punt on who the cabinet might be?

brickster69

Hunt out !

Boris draining the swamp with a sawn off shotgun.

Beechwoodspark

Lots of plotting in back benches to come

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Has any of the savvy UK media taken a punt on who the cabinet might be?

Javid, Raab and Patel for the big three jobs is the strong rumour

Duane Dibbley

I wouldn’t like to be a remainer watching who is walking into No 10. But the UK voted brexit and BJ is selecting a No Deal cabinet.

Interesting times ahead