Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Call me Al

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is a very Brexit cabinet. A lot of pressure about to come on us.

Expect rough time ahead.

I think he is pandering to Tory supporters, and attempting to woo the Brexit Party voters. Call an election once the Tories are perceived as being the most Brexit party of them all and they'll win back their support plus the other brexit supporters. Overall majority without a reliance on the DUP, and he can do what he wants.

BluePlanet

Hope Barnier, Tusk, Leo and Coveney keep a recording of all the stuff BJ comes out with behind closed doors.

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Obvious one is ending the CTA which would be a very serious threat. It matters far more to us than to them.

The card has not been played yet but I fully expect something on it if things are not going their way soon.

Actions have consequences, this is not the UK acting in a bilateral way, it would be seen as an act against the EU. What do you think a bullying action like that would do?

54and56

Water John wrote: »

Beth Rigby analysis is correct, he is going for broke.
It has all the looks of an election team.

This is Battle of The Bulge stuff by the Brexiteers. One last attempt to throw the kitchen sink at changing the inevitable outcome.

Can it have a different outcome though?

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Obvious one is ending the CTA which would be a very serious threat. It matters far more to us than to them.

The card has not been played yet but I fully expect something on it if things are not going their way soon.

Yeah could see that going well for them alright :rolleyes:

First Up

They would have fun trying to prevent a CTA in Ireland.

Larbre34

54&56 wrote: »

This is Battle of The Bulge stuff by the Brexiteers. One last attempt to throw the kitchen sink at changing the inevitable outcome.

Can it have a different outcome though?

Nope. Not when they've no cards to play.

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Actions have consequences, this is not the UK acting in a bilateral way, it would be seen as an act against the EU. What do you think a bullying action like that would do?

Indeed and dont forget the Dems in the US have said they would stand by Ireland too, cant imagine ending the CTA or even threatening to do so would make them to happy.

Its almost like soft power is incredibly important to cultivate amd maintain.....

Water John

JRM leader in the House.

Larbre34

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is a very Brexit cabinet. A lot of pressure about to come on us.

Expect rough time ahead.

The only possible pressure that could come on Ireland would be from Brussels. This mob will wind Brussels up so much that Ireland will probably end up treated even more favourably within the EU as a result.

VinLieger

Water John wrote: »

JRM leader in the House.

Bizarre pick tbh, probably the only way to get him into cabinet as he would refuse any role where he could be held to task by the public

It will mean we get to see Mogg V Bercow though

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Obvious one is ending the CTA which would be a very serious threat. It matters far more to us than to them.

The card has not been played yet but I fully expect something on it if things are not going their way soon.

Knock yourself out . There's nothing I need the CTA for Britian is a busted flush.

Pretending they have more cards up their sleeve is hilarious. Get them out October. Can't wait. In tired of this charade.

Larbre34

The writings on Julian Smith suggest he's a bit remainey with a small 'r'. Pragmatist and known May loyalist. The DUP won't have it all their own way.

Itssoeasy

You know JRM will love being leader of the house having just looked up the history and duties of the position.

Strazdas

Nick Boles not holding back on Twitter :

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1154093304327356416

The comments underneath are rather making his point for him.....Brexit Party types deliriously happy with Johnson's cabinet

J Mysterio

The European parliament has vowed to block Boris Johnson’s plan to ditch the Irish backstop from the Brexitwithdrawal agreement – warning that it is not up for negotiation.

Guy Verhofstadt, chair of the parliament’s Brexit steering group, blasted the new prime minister’s “irresponsible” claims during the Tory leadership contest which he argued had increased the risk of no deal.

After a meeting of the legislature’s steering group, MEPs said in a statement that an orderly exit was “only possible if citizens’ rights, the financial settlement and the backstop, that in all circumstances ensures no hardening of the border on the island of Ireland, safeguards the Good Friday Agreement and protects the integrity of the single market, are guaranteed”.

It noted that any withdrawal agreement would “require the European parliament’s consent”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-boris-johnson-verhofstadt-backstop-ireland-deal-mep-a9018701.html

FrancieBrady

Larbre34 wrote: »

The writings on Julian Smith suggest he's a bit remainey with a small 'r'. Pragmatist and known May loyalist. The DUP won't have it all their own way.

Reading about him there and he seems an odd choice on a day that purged the cabinet of remainers. He seems as mistake prone as his predecessor too.

J Mysterio

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Reading about him there and he seems an odd choice on a day that purged the cabinet of remainers. He seems as mistake prone as his predecessor too.

They might have felt it best to throw a curveball there to confuse matters and placate us a little, rather than put in another hardcore Brexiteer and antagonize us further.

Bit cynical

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Obvious one is ending the CTA which would be a very serious threat. It matters far more to us than to them.

The card has not been played yet but I fully expect something on it if things are not going their way soon.

I don't think this is likely to happen. How could ending the CTA or the threat of it work in Johnson's favour? Our politicians and the EU would love it if he did that. Here's why the backstop is needed, they would say.

No, the whole emphasis of Johnson's policy will be to try to show the EU that the backstop is not needed. If he pulled anything like that the EU and the world would go "told you so" and would be justified in insisting upon the need for the backstop.

Therefore the big threat from the UK will not be that that border infrastructure will be introduced or that the CTA will be abolished but rather that those things will not happen (or at least not happen to the extent envisaged).

This would be a much bigger worry politically for Varadkar and Coveney.

Akrasia

Johnson playing a dangerous game by picking such a one sided cabinet when his government majority is so slim and his party is already split.

A couple of defectors will win a motion of no confidence for the opposition

FrancieBrady

J Mysterio wrote: »

They might have felt it best to throw a curveball there to confuse matters and placate us a little, rather than put in another hardcore Brexiteer and antagonize us further.

Has anyone spotted any reaction on the wires to his appointment from parties?

Mr.Nice Guy

There's that often repeated quote where Johnson praises Trump and says if he was in charge of the Brexit negotiations "he'd go in bloody hard."

Looks like that is the plan based on Johnson's cabinet. Go in bloody hard.

I was listening to David McWilliams' recent podcast and he reckons Johnson's plan is get Brexit done on Halloween, then immediately afterwards call an election. Once Brexit has happened the Brexit Party cease to be relevant and the idea is to hoover up all their votes. That might well be the strategy.

Will be interesting to see how the DUP react to this because if they are seen as facilitating a No Deal Brexit it is going to damage them in 'soft u' unionist areas. Presumably they'll spin it that it was all the Irish government's fault.

For Forks Sake

Itssoeasy wrote: »

His brother has just gone into Downing Street.

Been appointed minister of state at the Business Dept

MrMusician18

Akrasia wrote: »

Johnson playing a dangerous game by picking such a one sided cabinet when his government majority is so slim and his party is already split.

A couple of defectors will win a motion of no confidence for the opposition

That could be the idea. He has made himself the man of leave for sure with that cabinet so perhaps he's thinking that if there's an election he could win by stealing the Brexit party's clothes.

With his own majority, he could throw the DUP under the bus.

Akrasia

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

There's that often repeated quote where Johnson praises Trump and says if he was in charge of the Brexit negotiations "he'd go in bloody hard."

Looks like that is the plan based on Johnson's cabinet. Go in bloody hard.

I was listening to David McWilliams' recent podcast and he reckons Johnson's plan is get Brexit done on Halloween, then immediately afterwards call an election. Once Brexit has happened the Brexit Party cease to be relevant and the idea is to hoover up all their votes. That might well be the strategy.

Will be interesting to see how the DUP react to this because if they are seen as facilitating a No Deal Brexit it is going to damage them in 'soft u' unionist areas. Presumably they'll spin it that it was all the Irish government's fault.

It takes 6 weeks for a general election. That’s plenty of time for the harsh reality of a hard no deal brexit to sink in

Bit cynical

Larbre34 wrote: »

The only possible pressure that could come on Ireland would be from Brussels. This mob will wind Brussels up so much that Ireland will probably end up treated even more favourably within the EU as a result.

I think that although it won't be reported, there is likely to be a behind the scenes battle between Dublin and Brussels over the extent of border infrastructure we are expected to erect in the event of no deal. Johnson will make sure that as little visible infrastructure as possible thus maximising embarrassment for Varadkar and Coveney.

devnull

Akrasia wrote: »

It takes 6 weeks for a general election.

Indeed and the master plan is, if you can't prorogue, you can engineer an election, which will have the same effect of stopping parliament from being able to stop no deal.

By having all the arch Brexiteers attending cabinet, they can all work on this plan together and co-ordinate it so they drop a whole load of stuff to provoke the backbenchers to vote no confidence and then blame the backbenchers for it despite the fact they had engineered it.

Surprised nobody has figured that out yet.

Water John

JRM has been put in place to frustrate the will of Parliament. He says, it's the law that UK leaves on Oct 31st. But as Rory Stewart pointed out on Peston ITV, it simply requires Parliament to pass an alternative motion.

Call me Al

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That could be the idea. He has made himself the man of leave for sure with that cabinet so perhaps he's thinking that if there's an election he could win by stealing the Brexit party's clothes.

With his own majority, he could throw the DUP under the bus.

This is my point completely.
He's trying to out-Brexit the Brexit Party and corner all that 30something % of the electorate to himself.
Get a chunky majority and he can do what he wants then.

Itssoeasy

Just listening to the recap and hearing what is being said on virgin media, I mean Boris Johnson can for ever more say he was prime minister come what may. The thing is he’s clearly cashed in all his chips already and he’s barely twelve hours in the job. I mean if he doesn’t achieve brexit by October 31st then he and the conservatives will likely lose a vote of no confidence and having not achieved brexit when he promised he’ll have written the brexit party’s election manifesto for them, which could mean a 1997 or worse election lashing for his party. It’s completely nuts.