Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell

devnull wrote: »

Akrasia wrote: »

It takes 6 weeks for a general election. That’s plenty of time for the harsh reality of a hard no deal brexit to sink in

Indeed and the master plan is, if you can't prorogue, you can engineer an election, which will have the same effect of stopping parliament from being able to stop no deal.

By having all the arch Brexiteers attending cabinet, they can all work on this plan together and co-ordinate it so they drop a whole load of stuff to provoke the backbenchers to vote no confidence and then blame the backbenchers for it despite the fact they had engineered it.

Surprised nobody has figured that out yet.

One small point.

He needs a two thirds majority to overcome the fixed term Parliament act.

Now Jezza would vote for a GE in a heart beat, but if there is a possibility of a Stop No-Deal National Government, which only requires a simple majority, maybe he would go with that to get the Tories out of Gov, end the Brexit mess, and then go for a GE. Boris would be a busted flush. Might work out, but you never know.

MrMusician18

Sam Russell wrote: »

One small point.

He needs a two thirds majority to overcome the fixed term Parliament act.

Now Jezza would vote for a GE in a heart beat, but if there is a possibility of a Stop No-Deal National Government, which only requires a simple majority, maybe he would go with that to get the Tories out of Gov, end the Brexit mess, and then go for a GE. Boris would be a busted flush. Might work out, but you never know.

The problem is that a national Government won't coalesce around Corbyn, it would be Starmer or similar. So if it isn't Corbyn that makes it to No. 10 why would he back a national Government?

Mr.Nice Guy

Wow his brother has taken a job having resigned less than a year ago, calling for a second referendum.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1154148705555099649

What a family.

20silkcut

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think that although it won't be reported, there is likely to be a behind the scenes battle between Dublin and Brussels over the extent of border infrastructure we are expected to erect in the event of no deal. Johnson will make sure that as little visible infrastructure as possible thus maximising embarrassment for Varadkar and Coveney.

It should not be seen as embarrassing. Protecting the single market is absolutely of the utmost importance to this country.
We should build the most watertight border possible between ourselves and Brexit Britain. Even if it’s on the island of Ireland. And Brussels should and probably will fully support us on that. Both politically and financially.
I dislike the way reporters put Coveney et al on the spot over this. This is entirely the fault of the UK and DUP. We have an ideal situation right now and they are the ones who want to depart and destroy it. This should be drilled home mercilessly and relentlessly in all commentary to do with the hard border in Ireland. Hounding our politicians over this drastic situation, entirely not of our making is absolutely unacceptable IMO.
Remember when the shoe was on the other foot they had no bother in putting 30,000 troops in the north to protect the union. And I’m sure would have no qualms in doing it again.

For Forks Sake

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Wow his brother has taken a job having resigned less than a year ago, calling for a second referendum.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1154148705555099649

What a family.

Yeah, moral fortitude would seem to be wholly lacking in that particular gene-pool

Akrasia

devnull wrote: »

Indeed and the master plan is, if you can't prorogue, you can engineer an election, which will have the same effect of stopping parliament from being able to stop no deal.

By having all the arch Brexiteers attending cabinet, they can all work on this plan together and co-ordinate it so they drop a whole load of stuff to provoke the backbenchers to vote no confidence and then blame the backbenchers for it despite the fact they had engineered it.

Surprised nobody has figured that out yet.

It would take an awful lot of engineering though. If there is a vote of no confidence in Johnson, parliament has 2 weeks to try and form a new Government. In that 2 weeks all the anti ‘no deal’ tories and the opposition parties could form a coalition to block Britain from crashing out. Especially if Johnson thinks he can pull a fast one without anyone noticing what he is trying to do

Jamie2k9

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think that although it won't be reported, there is likely to be a behind the scenes battle between Dublin and Brussels over the extent of border infrastructure we are expected to erect in the event of no deal. Johnson will make sure that as little visible infrastructure as possible thus maximising embarrassment for Varadkar and Coveney.

"we" will be the major downfall of Leo stint as leader. Ireland overplayed it's hand been unnecessary disruptive and it will cost us big time if there is a no deal. Coveney has put it out there about Ireland's obligations on the border and just as quickly played it down because of the negative press it's gotten.

Leo might need to set up a new PR unit....

woohoo!!!

BJ and the Tories are toast if no Brexit on October 31st. This bizarre cabinet has one purpose, to cannibalize the BP vote. All he needs to do is avoid a no confidence vote until the latter half of September, thereafter he'll manufacture one thus side lining parliament.

He needs the numbers and a lot more than he has now. He knows the EU won't blink but his priority is take out the BP, get their votes and strengthen his current tenuous grip on power.

dublinman1990

John McDonnell of Labour; on ITV's Peston, has said tonight that Labour will be ready for a GE. They will go in on a position of Remain during the election but, in his view, Labour will not be in favour of a taking part in a government of national unity. He says that type of position would never work for Labour because they do not have a good history in the UK. In the most honest terms possible; if Labour are put into a position after a GE that they are the new majority party in the UK parliament that does not get a commanding majority. What type of scenario could happen next for Labour? They still have the intention in taking a big gamble to still become a one-party government in the UK. Is that still a strategy that could still work in a country like the UK? My opinion is that JC could be stuck in a position to take what he gets to eventually become PM. That could mean taking part in a government of national unity so that the position of the Tories position considerably further into the abyss of political extinction.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I've seen him interviewed a few times and was impressed. Very articulate, intelligent and informed. Would be very disappointing to see him take the shilling.

Seeing as he is back in his old job, let's hope he handles interviews better than this one.

About 2:45 or so.

Snickers Man

First Up wrote: »

They would have fun trying to prevent a CTA in Ireland.

They couldn't. The most sensible, pragmatic way to police it is at ports and airports, which is of course the way they would do it, if only to prevent all those Polish electricians and plumbers who would be coming through Dublin to access the UK.

But then, that's your famous "Hard border in the Irish Sea" right there.

Bit cynical

20silkcut wrote: »

It should not be seen as embarrassing. Protecting the single market is absolutely of the utmost importance to this country.
We should build the most watertight border possible between ourselves and Brexit Britain.

I don't think this will be the widespread view if a no deal happens even on this forum. Our leaders will not want to be seen leading the way on border infrastructure if the UK is holding back.

Strazdas

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think this will be the widespread view if a no deal happens even on this forum. Our leaders will not want to be seen leading the way on border infrastructure if the UK is holding back.

As far as I know, there simply has to be border checks no matter what : otherwise all manner of unhealthy products such as chlorinated chicken or diseased cattle could enter the Single Market (ie. Ireland) from NI.

Border checks are not just about customs charges or tariffs.

MrMusician18

Strazdas wrote: »

As far as I know, there simply has to be border checks no matter what : otherwise all manner of unhealthy products such as chlorinated chicken or diseased cattle could enter the Single Market (ie. Ireland) from NI.

Border checks are not just about customs charges or tariffs.

Chlorinated chicken isn't any more unhealthy than it's non chlorinated counterpart. Chlorinated chicken, and the EUs opposition to it is more an animal welfare measure as well as a protectionist measure.

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

As far as I know, there simply has to be border checks no matter what : otherwise all manner of unhealthy products such as chlorinated chicken or diseased cattle could enter the Single Market (ie. Ireland) from NI.

Border checks are not just about customs charges or tariffs.

I don't disagree with that. However the extent of them and how quickly they need to be put in will be a matter of debate between Dublin and Brussels I think. We (Coveney and Varadkar) will be trying to minimise the extent to which they are needed at the site of the border arguing for a low-key approach. This will happen behind the scenes in Brussels.

I don't think we will be trying to produce the most watertight border as possible (as the poster suggested) in the event of a no deal brexit.

FrancieBrady

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't disagree with that. However the extent of them and how quickly they need to be put in will be a matter of debate between Dublin and Brussels I think. We (Coveney and Varadkar) will be trying to minimise the extent to which they are needed at the site of the border arguing for a low-key approach. This will happen behind the scenes in Brussels.

I don't think we will be trying to produce the most watertight border as possible (as the poster suggested) in the event of a no deal brexit.

I don't understand what happens to people like us who live on the border if checks are to be held away from the border. Anybody seen any more detail?

I make 1000's of crossing a year as do many many more. What is to stop us taking un-regulated products across and slipping them into containers originating in the south?
I can't get my head around how it will work without massive blind eyes being turned.

Bit cynical

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't understand what happens to people like us who live on the border if checks are to be held away from the border. Anybody seen any more detail?

I make 1000's of crossing a year as do many many more. What is to stop us taking un-regulated products across and slipping them into containers originating in the south?
I can't get my head around how it will work without massive blind eyes being turned.

To be honest I don't know how it is going to work either. I believe that Johnson will probably be able to do physical border checking away from the border. How well it is going to work I don't know but I believe it is his intention and it makes sense politically for him to do this.

Therefore it is not going to look good if the South has physical infrastructure right up to the border itself. That is where the international press is going to be if brexit occurs. It's going to be a political problem for Coveney to solve.

J Mysterio

Very interesting to see this hard (but extremely accurate) reporting of UK politics on MSNBC:

https://twitter.com/davidhall111/status/1154124220529381377

Peregrinus

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The problem is that a national Government won't coalesce around Corbyn, it would be Starmer or similar. So if it isn't Corbyn that makes it to No. 10 why would he back a national Government?

To get Labour into power.

There's a precedent. The UK formed a national government during the war, as we know, and on 10 May 1040 Churchill became Prime Minister in that government. He wasn't leader of the Conservative party; Neville Chamberlain was. Chamberlain remained party leader, took a seat in Churchill's war cabinet, and worked hard to keep the party behind Churchill's government. (Churchill was not popular or widely trusted in the party.) Chamberlain didn't leave the party leadership, or the Cabinet, until October 1940, when he was given a terminal cancer diagnosis. (He died the following month.) At that point Churchill became party leader.

There's an even more striking precedent in Ireland. John A. Costello was twice Taoiseach, leading inter-party governments, in 1948-51 and 1954-57. At no time was he leader of Fine Gael; Richard Mulcahy was. But Mulcahy served under Costello as Taoiseach. Mulcahy, because of his Civil War role, was not an acceptable Taoiseach to other parties in the inter-party government, so it was agreed that Costello would fill the role.

In short, there's no rule that the Prime Minister/Taoiseach has to be leader of
his or her party, and there is precedent for party leaders not to hold the office if that would impede the formation of a multi-party government. So if Corbyn is more concerned with Labour being in power than he is with Corbyn being in Downing Street, it's not unreasonable to think that he might do the same thing.

dresden8

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Obvious one is ending the CTA which would be a very serious threat. It matters far more to us than to them.

The card has not been played yet but I fully expect something on it if things are not going their way soon.

Thank God for that. Don't want those starving Brit refugees coming over here taking our houses......

20silkcut

Bit cynical wrote: »

To be honest I don't know how it is going to work either. I believe that Johnson will probably be able to do physical border checking away from the border. How well it is going to work I don't know but I believe it is his intention and it makes sense politically for him to do this.

Therefore it is not going to look good if the South has physical infrastructure right up to the border itself. That is where the international press is going to be if brexit occurs. It's going to be a political problem for Coveney to solve.

By not agreeing to a back stop the UK government is frankly adopting a menacing position with an absolute careless and wreck less disregard for creating disastrous divisions on this island. That is the only narrative that should surround this issue in my opinion.
Entirely the fault of the UK and DUP.

volchitsa

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Chlorinated chicken isn't any more unhealthy than it's non chlorinated counterpart. Chlorinated chicken, and the EUs opposition to it is more an animal welfare measure as well as a protectionist measure.

There are many more deaths in the US from poultry-related food poisoning than in the EU, so it seems there is an effect on human health too, and that chlorination just doesn't work as well as the EU's stricter animal husbandry standards.

maynooth_rules

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

"we" will be the major downfall of Leo stint as leader. Ireland overplayed it's hand.

Ah the Sammy Wilson line. Little old Ireland should remember it's place. It's literally killing the UK and the minority of staunch unionists in the North that we have this power in the negotiations alongside out European friends. If 'over playing' our hand means protecting peace that was hard fought on this island, and protecting the will of the large majority in Norther Ireland, then we are quite happy with that.

Headshot

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Wow his brother has taken a job having resigned less than a year ago, calling for a second referendum.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1154148705555099649

What a family.

You got to love them nepotism here

listermint

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Chlorinated chicken isn't any more unhealthy than it's non chlorinated counterpart. Chlorinated chicken, and the EUs opposition to it is more an animal welfare measure as well as a protectionist measure.

Bathing your food in chlorine isn't any more unhealthy than not.

Says guy on the internet with no qualifications to back it up.

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I can't get my head around how it will work without massive blind eyes being turned.

It won't work for long, and both sides know it.

The Brexiteers think the EU will force Ireland to put up a hard border, and that they will be off the hook since we did it first.

Leo & co. think the Channel ports will collapse and the next PM will be in Brussels begging for a deal before Christmas, and then the backstop will be back.

They are playing a game called Chlorinated Chicken.

EKRIUQ

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Chlorinated chicken isn't any more unhealthy than it's non chlorinated counterpart. Chlorinated chicken, and the EUs opposition to it is more an animal welfare measure as well as a protectionist measure.

Chlorinated is only part of the problem, it's the reason why it needs to be chlorinated that's what the EU objects too.

First Up

FrancieBrady wrote:

I make 1000's of crossing a year as do many many more. What is to stop us taking un-regulated products across and slipping them into containers originating in the south? I can't get my head around how it will work without massive blind eyes being turned.

Quite the opposite; many eyes - human and otherwise. There are ways to check/ensure the contents of containers without physically looking at every item.

I'm not saying the odd item won't get across but nobody will be able to operate a smuggling business without anyone noticing.

Jamie2k9

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It won't work for long, and both sides know it.

The Brexiteers think the EU will force Ireland to put up a hard border, and that they will be off the hook since we did it first.

Leo & co. think the Channel ports will collapse and the next PM will be in Brussels begging for a deal before Christmas, and then the backstop will be back.

They are playing a game called Chlorinated Chicken.

Its fact the EU will force Ireland, they have already discussed. Leo and Simon will bow to the EU and put Irish peoples interests second.

Beechwoodspark

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Its fact the EU will force Ireland, they have already discussed. Leo and Simon will bow to the EU and put Irish peoples interests second.

Any link for this?