Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Beechwoodspark

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Any link for this?

We'll probably have to wait a few months for this policy to come out.

VinLieger

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Its fact the EU will force Ireland, they have already discussed. Leo and Simon will bow to the EU and put Irish peoples interests second.

Its in all of our interests North and South to secure our position in the single market, anything that jeopordises that should be dealt with quickly and efficiently.


A UI wont ever happen if we are dumped from the single market, our economy will tank harder than the UK's in the case of a no deal and we will be screwed.


If we secure the single market access and thanks to a hard border being erected a UI will be far more likely to occur, and possibly even occur successfully without destroying our eonomy, which ultimately is actually putting the interests of all irish citizens both north and south of the border first, the fact people like yourself are unable to see the longterm strategy or benefits is kind of sad.

Jamie2k9

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Any link for this?

There have been several reports of EU putting pressure on Ireland to protect single market in a no deal. I remember reading France, Germany, Netherlands and rather surprisingly Denmark. The border is a shared problem however Irish Government have ignored that dispute UK causing it.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-denies-merkel-is-piling-on-pressure-over-nodeal-border-plans-37946911.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hogan-accuses-amateurish-uk-of-trying-to-force-eus-hand-on-border-issue-37937527.html

If they leave in October and there is no deal nothing will change for a few months, both sides will agree to this.

The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...

L1011

It's not 39bn anymore as the UK has been making its regular payments during the extension. The reduced figure should be being shouted from the rooftops as it goes down as it damages the fantasy economics of Johnson etc

murphaph

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Its fact the EU will force Ireland, they have already discussed. Leo and Simon will bow to the EU and put Irish peoples interests second.

Irish peoples interests are best served by maintaining the integrity of OUR single market. It's painful to have to harden the border but needs must.

Tell me how

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

There have been several reports of EU putting pressure on Ireland to protect single market in a no deal. I remember reading France, Germany, Netherlands and rather surprisingly Denmark. The border is a shared problem however Irish Government have ignored that dispute UK causing it.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-denies-merkel-is-piling-on-pressure-over-nodeal-border-plans-37946911.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hogan-accuses-amateurish-uk-of-trying-to-force-eus-hand-on-border-issue-37937527.html

If they leave in October and there is no deal nothing will change for a few months, both sides will agree to this.

The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...

None of those articles are evidence of EU pressure.
One says no EU pressure is being applied.
Another says the UK is trying to put pressure on for change.
The 3rd discusses Irish contingency conversations which already Coveney said was simply a conversation.

The Daily Mail, Express, Sun etc talk about EU pressure in an effort to suggest it is happening but it is non-existent.

Jamie2k9

L1011 wrote: »

It's not 39bn anymore as the UK has been making its regular payments during the extension. The reduced figure should be being shouted from the rooftops as it goes down as it damages the fantasy economics of Johnson etc

Not really been following the make up of the 39b. Yes they are continuing payments and still receiving whatever they were before 29 March. Equally latest EU elections will cost a lot with pensions. So is it really going down?

Beechwoodspark

Jeffry Donaldson on RTÉ asking for pragmatism and compromise from the Irish Govt....

kuro68k

The most frustrating thing, as a Brit, is that Labour is so useless. Where is the no confidence motion this morning?

VinLieger

kuro68k wrote: »

The most frustrating thing, as a Brit, is that Labour is so useless. Where is the no confidence motion this morning?

They are going to wait till the 2 week session in september prior to the conferences.


Why? Nobody has a clue beyond corbyn loves sitting on that fence and being indecisive as fvck, hes as bad if not worse than Clement Attlee for his "wait and see" attitude

Jamie2k9

VinLieger wrote: »

They are going to wait till the 2 week session in september prior to the conferences.


Why? Nobody has a clue beyond corbyn loves sitting on that fence and being indecisive as fvck, hes as bad if not worse than Clement Attlee for his "wait and see" attitude

Calling one today would be pointless as its guaranteed to fail.

ambro25

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Not really been following the make up of the 39b. Yes they are continuing payments and still receiving whatever they were before 29 March. Equally latest EU elections will cost a lot with pensions. So is it really going down?

How so? New Brit MEPs will have been in their job for a whole 4 months or so, if the UK Brexits on Halloween. For returning MEPs, just an extra 4 months worth of accrued rights. Or did you think an MEP just has to be in the job for a single day, to qualify for a full EU pension?

Moreover, the volume of UK MEP pensions pales in comparison to that of the Brit retirees from EU institutions.

In reference to a mention in your earlier post, the £39bn (or however much) has nothing to do with the RoI/NI border/GFA, btw. It's a completely distinct head of negotiation (long agreed by the UK, moreover).

VinLieger

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Calling one today would be pointless as its guaranteed to fail.

LOL the way you speak in absolutes without any evidence is quite ridiculous.


Considering the already razor thin margin and all the people Boris has just thrown into the backbenches how can you be so sure?

positron

Priti Patel, that Priti Patel who said Irish should remember the food shortages and agree to a better border deal?

It's like Trump & cronies just moved in next door. Absolute nightmare.

Thanks feck for EU, we would be toast without them. Even with them, it looks like we are about to get shafted. What kinda border would pollinators understand once they bring GM crops in the north?

Nody

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

There have been several reports of EU putting pressure on Ireland to protect single market in a no deal. I remember reading France, Germany, Netherlands and rather surprisingly Denmark. The border is a shared problem however Irish Government have ignored that dispute UK causing it.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-denies-merkel-is-piling-on-pressure-over-nodeal-border-plans-37946911.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hogan-accuses-amateurish-uk-of-trying-to-force-eus-hand-on-border-issue-37937527.html

If they leave in October and there is no deal nothing will change for a few months, both sides will agree to this.

The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...

Oh Jamie what to say. For starters the 39 billion is pocket change for EU; no seriously it really is. To put this in perspective this is 39 billion over about 40 years; the 2018 budget alone was 168 billion. To put that in perspective it's 0.5% of the budget for the time period; that's below inflation levels. However; EU is a rule based organization and will ask for their money before any FTA is done simply because UK agreed to pay for certain programs etc. and they want the funding accordingly. It's not going to cripple EU like the UK seems to thinks but they want it because it's what UK agreed to.

Secondly yes Ireland will expected to sort out the border for the same reason as any other country would; it's now an external border and that sets a requirement for it to be controlled. However unlike what you appear to think the Irish government has been aware about this since before Brexit as well as worked on the plans on how to handle it. However EU is also aware that this whole issue is caused by the UK and hence things such as additional funding will be there such as is done for the Baltic states due to Russia etc. That's part of the whole point of being part of EU; you have obligations (protect external borders) but you also get significant benefits (single market access, support for weak regions, ongoing support as part of a larger more powerful group etc.). As a bonus the hard border will also drive unification forward like a truck going downhill simply because of the disparity of how things will go on each side of the border. It's nice to be a unionist but if your choice becomes food on the table or being a unionist for a majority of people the choice becomes quite easy.

Jamie2k9

VinLieger wrote: »

LOL the way you speak in absolutes without any evidence is quite ridiculous.


Considering the already razor thin margin and all the people Boris has just thrown into the backbenches how can you be so sure?

Thin majority yes, no Tory remainer would bring him down on day one. They will wait and see over the summer. Now closer to a no deal yes they would vote against him.

KildareP

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

There have been several reports of EU putting pressure on Ireland to protect single market in a no deal. I remember reading France, Germany, Netherlands and rather surprisingly Denmark. The border is a shared problem however Irish Government have ignored that dispute UK causing it.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-denies-merkel-is-piling-on-pressure-over-nodeal-border-plans-37946911.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hogan-accuses-amateurish-uk-of-trying-to-force-eus-hand-on-border-issue-37937527.html

If they leave in October and there is no deal nothing will change for a few months, both sides will agree to this.

The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...

The Irish Government have not been ignoring it, but equally they haven't been revealing their plans in public either - and rightly so.

The moment the Irish government reveal they have plans to erect a hard border it lets the UK off the hook. The UK can sit back and let the EU do all the work.

Whereas the UK wouldn't last a wet week if, as they claim they will, their border is just left wide open - Canada only last week demonstrated this by refusing to either roll over or negotiate a FTA because a border-free, tariff-free arrangement will always be infinitely better than a bilateral trade deal.

Every other country will be thinking the same, especially those that might be looking to offload cheap, low quality product - it wouldn't ever get to a FTA stage but with WTO Most Favoured Nation rules and no-tarriffs it can easily get through. And even if they do want to levy tarriffs, with no UK border, how are they going to apply them?

I'm sure even the most hardened Brexiteers in the UK realise this deep, deep, deeeeeep in the back of the mind. Everyone knows it will have to happen - but so long as the UK see there being no plan to do so they can't react and the current hope is they get Ireland/EU to cave first so that they can say it's not them.

As for the £39bn - the EU will get it one way or another, either up front or after the markets have deemed it a sovereign default and the UK credit rating goes through the floor - Boris is going to have borrow to meet all of yesterday's spending pledges from somewhere!

Somewhat related - I'd love to know that sort of public reaction it would get if anyone in the UK who thinks it's a Brexit dividend found out that the DUP have already swallowed up close to 5% of that dividend (between the cash-for-ash scandal, £500mn and the Confidence & Supply sweetener, £1bn) and that's probably going to go up again should a further confidence & supply deal be agreed.

Jamie2k9

Nody wrote: »

Oh Jamie what to say. For starters the 39 billion is pocket change for EU; no seriously it really is. To put this in perspective this is 39 billion over about 40 years; the 2018 budget alone was 168 billion. To put that in perspective it's 0.5% of the budget for the time period; that's below inflation levels. However; EU is a rule based organization and will ask for their money before any FTA is done simply because UK agreed to pay for certain programs etc. and they want the funding accordingly. It's not going to cripple EU like the UK seems to thinks but they want it because it's what UK agreed to.

Secondly yes Ireland will expected to sort out the border for the same reason as any other country would; it's now an external border and that sets a requirement for it to be controlled. However unlike what you appear to think the Irish government has been aware about this since before Brexit as well as worked on the plans on how to handle it. However EU is also aware that this whole issue is caused by the UK and hence things such as additional funding will be there such as is done for the Baltic states due to Russia etc. That's part of the whole point of being part of EU; you have obligations (protect external borders) but you also get significant benefits (single market access, support for weak regions, ongoing support as part of a larger more powerful group etc.). As a bonus the hard border will also drive unification forward like a truck going downhill simply because of the disparity of how things will go on each side of the border. It's nice to be a unionist but if your choice becomes food on the table or being a unionist for a majority of people the choice becomes quite easy.

Just wait and see how Ireland sorting out the border goes down with the electorate...no body in Government or opposition will want to be responsible.

VinLieger

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Just wait and see how Ireland sorting out the border goes down with the electorate...no body in Government or opposition will want to be responsible.

The vast majority of Irish people actually understand that any border that needs to be erected is entirely the UK's fault for starting this whole insanity in the first place.


Im curious why you seem to think its somehow our fault though?

Jamie2k9

KildareP wrote: »

The Irish Government have not been ignoring it, but equally they haven't been revealing their plans in public either - and rightly so.

The moment the Irish government reveal they have plans to erect a hard border it lets the UK off the hook. The UK can sit back and let the EU do all the work.

Whereas the UK wouldn't last a wet week if, as they claim they will, their border is just left wide open - Canada only last week demonstrated this by refusing to either roll over or negotiate a FTA because a border-free, tariff-free arrangement will always be infinitely better than a bilateral trade deal.

Every other country will be thinking the same, especially those that might be looking to offload cheap, low quality product - it wouldn't ever get to a FTA stage but with WTO Most Favoured Nation rules and no-tarriffs it can easily get through. And even if they do want to levy tarriffs, with no UK border, how are they going to apply them?

I'm sure even the most hardened Brexiteers in the UK realise this deep, deep, deeeeeep in the back of the mind. Everyone knows it will have to happen - but so long as the UK see there being no plan to do so they can't react and the current hope is they get Ireland/EU to cave first so that they can say it's not them.

As for the £39bn - the EU will get it one way or another, either up front or after the markets have deemed it a sovereign default and the UK credit rating goes through the floor - Boris is going to have borrow to meet all of yesterday's spending pledges from somewhere!

Somewhat related - I'd love to know that sort of public reaction it would get if anyone in the UK who thinks it's a Brexit dividend found out that the DUP have already swallowed up close to 5% of that dividend (between the cash-for-ash scandal, £500mn and the Confidence & Supply sweetener, £1bn) and that's probably going to go up again should a further confidence & supply deal be agreed.

I suspect like most of there no deal planning they have no plan to reveal (in-depth details). UK know the EU will do the work anyway.

FreudianSlippers

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

There have been several reports of EU putting pressure on Ireland to protect single market in a no deal. I remember reading France, Germany, Netherlands and rather surprisingly Denmark. The border is a shared problem however Irish Government have ignored that dispute UK causing it.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-denies-merkel-is-piling-on-pressure-over-nodeal-border-plans-37946911.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hogan-accuses-amateurish-uk-of-trying-to-force-eus-hand-on-border-issue-37937527.html

If they leave in October and there is no deal nothing will change for a few months, both sides will agree to this.

The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...

The Single Market is more important to Ireland as a nation than a United Ireland will ever be.

VinLieger

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The Single Market is more important to Ireland as a nation than a United Ireland will ever be.

In fact its absolutely integral to the success of a UI.

Peregrinus

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I suspect like most of there no deal planning they have no plan to reveal. UK know the EU will do the work anyway.

The truth is that in a no-deal situation both UK and EU need to police their borders. Since they will be policing them for different purposes, one side starting to do so will not remove the need for the other to do so.

Neither wants to admit that they will need to police their borders, but both will need it. And neither wants to say how exactly they will police their borders, since they want to retain flexibility to do so in the least intrusive way as the situation develops. Above all, neither wants to be first to police the border; each will hope that circumstances compel the other to do it first. And each, when they do start to do it, will do so gradually, starting with minimal measures and then stepping them up as the situation deterioriates, hoping to blame the need for the step-up on the other side.

All this is pretty well inevitable, unless there is an agreement on measures to avoid a hard border.

Varadkar could (and should) have managed expectations a bit better on this. But I'm pretty confident that, when the border hardens, regardless of which side moves first to harden it, Irish public opinion will overwhelmingly, and quite rightly, put the blame on the UK.

kunst nugget

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Just wait and see how Ireland sorting out the border goes down with the electorate...no body in Government or opposition will want to be responsible.

Nobody in Government will be responsible for the border. The Republic of Ireland did not create the situation we now face. That is entirely the fault of Britain.

InTheShadows

kunst nugget wrote: »

Nobody in Government will be responsible for the border. The Republic of Ireland did not create the situation we now face. That is entirely the fault of Britain.

What a ridiculous statement. Of course we are responsible for enforcing our borders.

Jamie2k9

kunst nugget wrote: »

Nobody in Government will be responsible for the border. The Republic of Ireland did not create the situation we now face. That is entirely the fault of Britain.

Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.

Nody

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I suspect like most of there no deal planning they have no plan to reveal (in-depth details). UK know the EU will do the work anyway.

Except EU (and Ireland) will do nothing to prevent smuggling into the UK; only out of the UK. I used this example before but take cigarettes as an example. Exporting one container/truck out of Ireland / EU (i.e. get back full VAT, duties etc. as the product is not going to be sold in Ireland/EU) would net you about a million GBP (this is based on retail 8 GBP per pack with 80% tax (up to 90% on cheaper brands) and then selling them at half price of 4 GBP with a truck/container taking about 475.000 packs). Remember no border controls on the UK side so it's risk free million per truck/container...

mickoneill31

InTheShadows wrote: »

What a ridiculous statement. Of course we are responsible for enforcing our borders.

Did you misrepresent what he posted on purpose or by accident?

kunst nugget

InTheShadows wrote: »

What a ridiculous statement. Of course we are responsible for enforcing our borders.

We will enforce an border but we are not responsible for the border going up.

Sparko

L1011 wrote: »

It's not 39bn anymore as the UK has been making its regular payments during the extension. The reduced figure should be being shouted from the rooftops as it goes down as it damages the fantasy economics of Johnson etc

It was just mentioned on Sky that the amount will stand at 33 billion at 31 October 2019.