Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is not in the least bit patronising

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1134566384384532482

I sincerely hope he gets elected. He, or someone like him, will be a disaster. Britain will rush to rejoin or become easy pickings for the EU and/or Ireland.

Enzokk

54&56 wrote: »

I agree which is why I didn't.

They did however submit themselves to the Tory led Austerity program which regardless of whether you agree with its necessity or not (and I personally agree with it in general) means they significantly contributed to creating the large portion of UK society which is now disenfranchised and prone to the type of simplistic slogans of Farage & co.

The problem for the UK I think is not austerity itself but how they are still in the austerity program started by Cameron and Osborne and due to this they are facing challenges. We have to remember that Labour proposed their own austerity measures during the election, but the criticism of the Tory cuts at the time was how much and how deep they were.

brickster69

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I know CETA doesn't cover services and CETA must be superior to WTO rules else why would Canada and the EU have spent most of a decade negotiating the thing.

I'm pretty sure the WTO does not cover services.

It's called GATS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Agreement_on_Trade_in_Services

murphaph

Common sense article from the sitting (Labour) MP for Sedgefield.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/31/corbyn-party-brexit-labour-eu-remain-reform

Tell me how

Donald Trump has endorsed Boris Johnson for next UK PM.
Also, John Bolton has said the Brexit must be respected and the UK must leave the EU.

Trump probably hasn't put much more thought in to it than seeing someone who is mostly popular for being absurd but Bolton's comments should be a chilling indicator of the nefarious forces who are hoping to benefit from Brexit.

I wonder will Trump/Johnson go so far as meeting while Trump is in the UK? Be incredible if they did, a final kick in the teeth for May.

CelticRambler

murphaph wrote: »

Common sense article from the sitting (Labour) MP for Sedgefield.

Well ... up to a point. The argument comes across as somewhat of a "save the Labour Party" call-to-arms, which is essentially asking the electorate to endorse a return to the traditional two-party adversarial system. That has been bad for British politics, and is hardly likely to resolve the national disunity on show in England these days.

While not thinking about anything Brexity this morning, I suddenly remembered that someone posted a link (quite a while ago) to a Guardian infographic that illustrated the splitting of the UK vote into four camps - essentially the very same four camps that we saw emerge from the EU ballot. This is probably the new reality for English voters and aspiring MPs - they would do well to adjust their electoral process to accommodate it, and learn to love government by consensus!

Water John

Yes, the UK is Coalition Government for slow learners.

listermint

Tell me how wrote: »

Donald Trump has endorsed Boris Johnson for next UK PM.
Also, John Bolton has said the Brexit must be respected and the UK must leave the EU.

Trump probably hasn't put much more thought in to it than seeing someone who is mostly popular for being absurd but Bolton's comments should be a chilling indicator of the nefarious forces who are hoping to benefit from Brexit.

I wonder will Trump/Johnson go so far as meeting while Trump is in the UK? Be incredible if they did, a final kick in the teeth for May.

I'll just leave this here.


Boris on Donald trump... Wonder has the big D seen this yet. No doubt he will can't stay off twitter


https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1134398873328398336?s=20

lawred2

listermint wrote: »

I'll just leave this here.


Boris on Donald trump... Wonder has the big D seen this yet. No doubt he will can't stay off twitter


https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1134398873328398336?s=20

I know it doesn't really need saying. But I'm going to say it anyway.

That's ironic.

Akrasia

54&56 wrote: »

Wow, how can anyone possibly be sure what an awful lot of the 24.9% WA voters would have preferred? You are assuming that proven Leavers would prefer to remain rather than exit via WTO.

If a majority of the votes are for leave and a majority of the leave votes are for WTO you end up with a clearly expressed opinion.

Is it perfect? No.

Is there a better referendum proposal on the table? Maybe but I haven't seen one.

Its not perfect, its also not good. It doesn't ask what the 24.9% of voters prefer, it just assumes that all voters who dont vote remain are happy with both the crash out or withdrawal agreement. Instead of assuming their preference, a proper democratic vote would get them to state their preference.

The single transferable vote is much better at narrowing down preferences than your idea.

Tell me how

listermint wrote: »

I'll just leave this here.

Boris on Donald trump... Wonder has the big D seen this yet. No doubt he will can't stay off twitter
]

I'm quite sure both parties are capable of spinning that as a misinformed opinion piece from a time long passed.

It's nothing to do with either of them liking each other. It is to do with both of them willing to do/say anything to get what they want.

Enzokk

murphaph wrote: »

Common sense article from the sitting (Labour) MP for Sedgefield.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/31/corbyn-party-brexit-labour-eu-remain-reform

I don't know how any Labour MP, other than them being staunch Brexiters, can still support leaving the EU. I also don't know why some in Labour thought that trying to appease 30% of the party that voted for Brexit was somehow going to end up well. Talk about having the tail wagging the dog.

jochenstacker

listermint wrote: »

I'll just leave this here.


Boris on Donald trump... Wonder has the big D seen this yet. No doubt he will can't stay off twitter


https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1134398873328398336?s=20

I'm going to have to say that I would rather BJ becomes PM than Nigel Farage. There is a tiny sliver of hope that Boris has at least some brains and halfway knows what he's doing.
It's just the guy's motives that are questionable.
But the amount of ass-kissing between Trump and Nigel would be unbearable, I would need about 20-30 vomit bags a day.

jochenstacker

jochenstacker wrote: »

I'm going to have to say that I would rather BJ becomes PM than Nigel Farage. There is a tiny sliver of hope that Boris has at least some brains and halfway knows what he's doing.
It's just the guy's motives that are questionable.
But the amount of ass-kissing between Trump and Nigel would be unbearable, I would need about 20-30 vomit bags a day.

They're not in competition with each other...

CrabRevolution

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

As we all know some of the car makers brought forward their summer shutdown to reduce the impact of Brexit day. So I wasn't surprised that car volume is down 45% for April

Then I saw the graph :eek:

Ask any Brexiteer to explain it.
And then remind them that the 2022 Honda closure will drop it down another line and a half ( 160K cars)


https://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-48399741
And Trump is putting 5% on imports from Mexico which includes "Autos and auto parts ($93bn)" while still hassling China.
- Fiat Chrysler is down more than 5%.
- General Motors is down more than 4%.
- Ford is down more than 3%.
If any of those companies need to cut costs or delay investment it won't end well for their UK operations.

Nothing to do with Brexit. Don't you know that car makers regularly reduce production indefinitely and lay of 1000s of workers in one go?

The UK car industry was on course to hit its highest production level since the 70s in 2017 and break all time production records in the years after. If you'd done a study before 2016 asking the question "what's the single most effective step we can take to reverse car production growth and cripple the UK automotive industry", leaving the EU would be top of the list.

listermint

jochenstacker wrote: »

I'm going to have to say that I would rather BJ becomes PM than Nigel Farage. There is a tiny sliver of hope that Boris has at least some brains and halfway knows what he's doing.
It's just the guy's motives that are questionable.
But the amount of ass-kissing between Trump and Nigel would be unbearable, I would need about 20-30 vomit bags a day.

Farage can't become prime minster. It's he Tories leadership battle.

....

Tell me how

listermint wrote: »

Farage can't become prime minster. It's he Tories leadership battle.

....

And he's not an MP....

murphaph

Tell me how wrote: »

And he's not an MP....

Technically I don't think you have to be, but Farage would never command a majority in the HoC which is required.

Tell me how

murphaph wrote: »

Technically I don't think you have to be, but Farage would never command a majority in the HoC which is required.

Even taking in to account all of the things that have actually happened which we didn't expect over the recent years, I think we can safely draw the line at this occurring.

(Even as I type that I think, I wouldn't be surprised if he joined a right focused Conservative party and then who knows.) Shuddering here as I type that.

Sam Russell

murphaph wrote: »

Technically I don't think you have to be, but Farage would never command a majority in the HoC which is required.

It is required to be a member of either the HoC or the HoL. He is neither. He would require to be a member of the Tory Party to be its leader. It is unlikely that a member of the HoL would be voted to be leader by MPs.

It would require a GE for the Brexit Party to get a number of seats bar those few that could be got by by-elections. There is more chance the Lord Buckethead would have more chance, and probably be a better result.

Akrasia

firemansam4 wrote: »

I think a much better option would be to have a 2 part vote where the first question is between revoke and leave.

Then the second part gives another vote between leaving with the WA or leaving on WTO terms.
The second part will only be used if the leave option wins the first part of the vote.

How is this better than the single transferrable vote?
Given that the polls are showing a split between remain and leave of roughly 50/50 (with remain slightly ahead), and the leave vote being split between WTO and WA brexits at roughly 50/50 support.

If the 'leave' option wins the first vote, and there is another vote between WA and WTO, then the WA option will win because every single remain voter will vote for the softest brexit on the table.

Unless the 'no deal' option has an overall majority of support, it's always going to lose in a vote between WA and WTO

The only way you can give the WTO brexit a chance of winning, is if you can engineer a voting system where the remainers don't get any vote between those two options
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/would-you-prefer-the-uk-remains-in-the-eu-leaves-with-a-deal-or-leaves-without-a-deal/

Jim2007

Akrasia wrote: »

If the 'leave' option wins the first vote, and there is another vote between WA and WTO, then the WA option will win because every single remain voter will vote for the softest brexit on the table.

And that is exactly why it is better, that way you will avoid arguments over a low percentage winning. And it is also the common way of doing. I have now voted in several Swiss referenda where this was how it was done for example

Stop moaning ffs

Farage is the one person in this utter debacle that you can safely say would have no interest in being PM.
it wouldn’t fit his lifestyle nor his agenda. Why take in the hassle when he somehow has the press dancing to his tune and any amount of platforms to spread his nonsense like LBC etc.
Not to forget his cosy MEP paycheque and pension.

jochenstacker

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They're not in competition with each other...

I'm just considering nightmare scenarios. And a lot of Brits would by now be insane enough to vote for the Brexit Party in a GE.

CelticRambler

Jim2007 wrote: »

And that is exactly why it is better, that way you will avoid arguments over a low percentage winning. And it is also the common way of doing. I have now voted in several Swiss referenda where this was how it was done for example

The common way of doing things is to lay out very specific choices and hold the election in a tightly regulated environment. That didn't happen with Brexit. There was one specific choice - "Remain, i.e. no change to the status quo" - versus a very vague "Leave, i.e. change something, but who knows what". I doubt you've voted in any Swiss referendum that had "we'll tell you later" as an option.

Even now, putting "Leave" as a stand-alone option on a ballot paper is completely daft, because there are still twenty different versions of "Leave" doing the rounds, at least some of which are "well if that's what we're getting, we might as well Remain".

If Theresa May had any balls :rolleyes: she'd go off-bot for one last speech and announce that whole thing had become an unmanageable mess, that - for the good of the country - she was delivering a letter of revocation to Brussels that evening, and her successor could trigger Art.50 anew once he/she had a fresh mandate from the people. That'd be a nice cat to set amongst the Party pigeons! :pac:

An Ciarraioch

jochenstacker wrote: »

I'm just considering nightmare scenarios. And a lot of Brits would by now be insane enough to vote for the Brexit Party in a GE.

Cue nightmare poll scenario:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160

At least Lib Dems would have more seats than the Tories ...

Akrasia

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Cue nightmare poll scenario:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160

At least Lib Dems would have more seats than the Tories ...

The brexit parties only have 44% of the vote in that poll

The remain/2nd referendum parties have 50% (if you include Labour, which I do because the labour party have publically committed to holding a 2nd referendum. (flip flops and weasel words not withstanding)

An Ciarraioch

Akrasia wrote: »

The brexit parties only have 44% of the vote in that poll

The remain/2nd referendum parties have 50% (if you include Labour, which I do because the labour party have publically committed to holding a 2nd referendum. (flip flops and weasel words not withstanding)

Problem is that according to the various seat projection websites, Brexit would either win 262 or 302 seats, with the Tories on 26 or 47!

http://twitter.com/markrowlands03/status/1134903743529570306

Enzokk

The Brexit Party will lose support once you get to the issues other than Brexit and there is proper scrutiny of their policies and candidates. They will have more support than UKIP in 2015 but they will not be close to the top and could share the Brexit vote with the Tories.

I think the next Tory leader will pivot to a hard Brexit to try and win that vote back but some voters will feel sufficiently betrayed to have those 2 share the vote. The only other question is whether Labour replaces Corbyn, if they do they will have a landslide victory. If he is still leader then the same situation, Labour and the Libdems will share the remain vote.

Anteayer

It has to be humiliating for the UK to have Donald Trunp basically annointing the candidate for Tory leadership and PM.

Brexit appears to be draining them of not only power but dignity too!