Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

kunst nugget

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.

Ireland or the EU are not imposing a border - border controls to protect the single market are a response to Britain leaving the single market. That is not something that Ireland or the EU wanted so why should we be held responsible for that?

Valhallapt

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...

The U.K. will pay the remaining 33bn quietly, if they defaulted on this they would effectively lock themselves out of international debt markets, by having to pay extortionate interest rates, at a time when they are going to need to borrow a lot.

Dytalus

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.

"Blaming the Brits" is perfectly fair to do in this situation. Part of our requirements as members of the WTO demands that we police goods coming into our nation (or rather, into the Single Market). The same is true of Britain - they must also police goods coming into the UK.

They voted to leave the Single Market, necessitating both parties to put up border controls under our obligations as part of the World Trade Organisation. Unless Her Majesty's Government was outrageously ignorant on the matter, they knew this would be the case but refused (or forgot, if we assume incompetence rather than callous disregard) to account for the Good Friday Agreement.

They then refused every possible legal option presented to them for maintaining an open border without breaking any laws or rules of international trade.

We will be required to put up a border at some point, yes. But it's entirely the UK's fault that it is necessary.

Russman

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Just wait and see how Ireland sorting out the border goes down with the electorate...no body in Government or opposition will want to be responsible.

I think the vast majority of Irish people (bar a few head bangers) are aware of, and up to date with, current affairs enough that they know we wouldn't be putting a border up for the craic, its simply something we must do in the event of a no-deal crash out.
Single market access is way more important to the country as a whole than any perception of "who put up the first checkpoint".

Russman

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.

Won't wash with who ?

Lackadaisical

It’s a bit like a bully punching you in the face and then trying to blame you, claiming you ran into their fist.

The logic of the brexiteers is to rant, rave and bully and simultaneously claim to be the victim.

Tacitus Kilgore

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.

kunst nugget wrote: »

Ireland or the EU are not imposing a border - border controls to protect the single market are a response to Britain leaving the single market. That is not something that Ireland or the EU wanted so why should we be held responsible for that?

The poster seems to carry a post colonial inferiority complex to match the British superiority complex.


Said blame only exists in the british tabloids anyway, the adults (EU) in the other room will be too busy keeping their shit together to be worried about daily mail headlines.

KildareP

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Just wait and see how Ireland sorting out the border goes down with the electorate...no body in Government or opposition will want to be responsible.

I don't think it will have the effect you think (hope?) it will.

It will be seen as the Irish government once again in our long history of being forced to do something because of the British. This will NOT sit well either side of the border.

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I suspect like most of there no deal planning they have no plan to reveal (in-depth details). UK know the EU will do the work anyway.

Neither you nor I are privy to any such plan to say categorically whether it exists or not.

However, apart from the fact the Irish government know how much is at stake not to have a plan, the EU simply wouldn't allow a situation to develop whereby the Irish government sat idle with no plan at all. So I think it's safe to say there is a plan, likely with great detail.

Certainly on the ground I've noticed changes to supply chains in recent months.

I put in an order for computers recently - ordered the same computers many times before, same manufacturer, same spec, same supplier - which previously came from Warrington in the UK through Dublin Port. This time round it came from Germany via Cork.
I've ordered a few items recently off Amazon UK using Prime Shipping to Ireland, I would have exptected them to come from the UK since they were fulfilled by Amazon, but they were shipped from Germany.
Lidl and Aldi have been changing product ranges recently - some have been replaced with alternatives, some have disappeared entirely, others have English packaging but German labelling on the inside.

The UK are being quietly routed out.

Valhallapt

KildareP wrote: »

The UK are being quietly routed out.

I this this is going to accelerate in the coming days after what’s happened in London. At the last deadline that passed a lot of stock piling went on, seems like now the risk of a disorderly brexit is now too high to not start executing plans to change supply chains.

Peregrinus

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.

Neither Ireland nor the EU will impose a border. They will operate a border which the UK will impose by its free, unconstrained, unilateral choices to (a) withdraw from the mutual arrangements that currently keep the border open, and (b) refuse to enter into agreed replacement arrangements to keep the border open.

FrancieBrady

First Up wrote: »

Quite the opposite; many eyes - human and otherwise. There are ways to check/ensure the contents of containers without physically looking at every item.

I'm not saying the odd item won't get across but nobody will be able to operate a smuggling business without anyone noticing.

Can you give detail on this, was a part of my question?

Duane Dibbley

I think its time for the Irish Government to start informing people of the possibility of Border controls between ROI & UK in the case of No deal.

Most are well aware of it anyway.

Jamie2k9

KildareP wrote: »

I don't think it will have the effect you think (hope?) it will.

It will be seen as the Irish government once again in our long history of being forced to do something because of the British. This will NOT sit well either side of the border.


Neither you nor I are privy to any such plan to say categorically whether it exists or not.

However, apart from the fact the Irish government know how much is at stake not to have a plan, the EU simply wouldn't allow a situation to develop whereby the Irish government sat idle with no plan at all. So I think it's safe to say there is a plan, likely with great detail.

Certainly on the ground I've noticed changes to supply chains in recent months.

I put in an order for computers recently - ordered the same computers many times before, same manufacturer, same spec, same supplier - which previously came from Warrington in the UK through Dublin Port. This time round it came from Germany via Cork.
I've ordered a few items recently off Amazon UK using Prime Shipping to Ireland, I would have exptected them to come from the UK since they were fulfilled by Amazon, but they were shipped from Germany.
Lidl and Aldi have been changing product ranges recently - some have been replaced with alternatives, some have disappeared entirely, others have English packaging but German labelling on the inside.

The UK are being quietly routed out.

A border combined with no deal will have a significant impact and the Government will take there share of the blame.

Why would I hope for such a reaction?

Leroy42

So you want an information campaign on what most people already know on an issue we don't know the outcome of?

You only have to see the reaction to Coveneys piece in the Times last week to see that anything the Irish say will be pounched on by the UK to try to drive a wedge.

Jamie2k9

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I think its time for the Irish Government to start informing people of the possibility of Border controls between ROI & UK in the case of No deal.

Most are well aware of it anyway.

Leo has guaranteed no border on the island “full stop” so we are all grand.

Leroy42

What would you blame the government for if no deal happens?

Peregrinus

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Leo has guaranteed no border on the island “full stop” so we are all grand.

Linketty-link?

Leroy42

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I think its time for the Irish Government to start informing people of the possibility of Border controls between ROI & UK in the case of No deal.

Most are well aware of it anyway.

Leo has guaranteed no border on the island “full stop” so we are all grand.

Based on a guarantee from the UK government. Seems reasonable position to have taken.

Jamie2k9

Leroy42 wrote: »

What would you blame the government for if no deal happens?

If we enter another recession do you think the Government will come up smelling of roses?

kunst nugget

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

If we enter another recession do you think the Government will come up smelling of roses?

What are we to blame the Government for exactly in the event of a No Deal?

gooch2k9

Swinson has laid down a motion of no confidence. Challenging Corbyn to back it, no prizes for guessing what he'll do.

Leroy42

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

What would you blame the government for if no deal happens?

If we enter another recession do you think the Government will come up smelling of roses?

So you think Brexit, and the results of it, are the government's fault?

What would have them do differently?

FreudianSlippers

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

If we enter another recession do you think the Government will come up smelling of roses?

Global recession looking very likely Q2 2020. Mitigation of loss will be the question of Governmental performance, not the wild concept that the Irish Government can somehow control the planet's economy.

LuckyLloyd

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The Single Market is more important to Ireland as a nation than a United Ireland will ever be.

As an ardent Republican, I agree with this.

FrancieBrady

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

If we enter another recession do you think the Government will come up smelling of roses?

Are you in favour of Irexit? Because you don't seem to give Ireland any latitude to do anything else here.

I live on the border and I cannot see a win for Ireland here if we are to protect the Single market which I think it is imperative we play our part in doing.

Currently, I am coming around to the position that we may have to pull on the green jersey (over our EU one) and seal the border as best we can.

It's cuts both ways here if there is no border controlling what is going into the north. Never minding the rest of the UK, the effect of cheaper goods (if things go predictably pear shaped in the UK, then things will be cheaper here) flooding northwards will destroy the already fragile economy of the north.

FreudianSlippers

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Leo has guaranteed no border on the island “full stop” so we are all grand.

For anyone interested in the truth, here's what Varadkar actually said:

"We can’t shift on the issue of there being no hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That is the outcome that we need. We have said it from day one that Brexit cannot result in a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. We have made that commitment to the people of Ireland, north and south. And the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom Government has made that commitment to the people of Ireland, north and south, so it needs to be honoured."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ireland-cannot-shift-on-hard-border-after-brexit-varadkar-1.3759832

[A no-deal Brexit would] “leave us with no guarantee in relation to there not being a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. It would leave us with no protections around citizens’ rights and freedoms and it would have a major impact on jobs and the economy.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/varadkar-confirms-plans-for-hard-brexit-now-being-implemented-1.3760008

FreudianSlippers

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

As an ardent Republican, I agree with this.

I consider myself a Republican as well, but I've come to realise that we cannot force the UK and/or the people of Northern Ireland to act in their best interest. We shouldn't compromise ourselves to the benefit of a Northern Ireland populous that does not want to be part of a United Ireland.

LuckyLloyd

The rerouting of supply chains is very real. It’s hard work and we’re still going to have a significant minority of goods trade that depends on the land bridge come Oct 31st but we’ve significantly reduced our volumes in that regard over the past three years. We’re also down to 11% as a whole for direct exports to Britain.

My expectation is that the detailed plans will involve funding for increased ferry services directly to France. That’s not a solution for everything and it takes longer but Ireland is clearly decoupling from the UK as every month passes.

Jamie2k9

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

For anyone interested in the truth, here's what Varadkar actually said:


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ireland-cannot-shift-on-hard-border-after-brexit-varadkar-1.3759832

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/varadkar-confirms-plans-for-hard-brexit-now-being-implemented-1.3760008

May 2018

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/leo-varadkar-offers-guarantee-of-no-border-on-island-of-ireland-1.3496592%3fmode=amp

Jamie2k9

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are you in favour of Irexit? Because you don't seem to give Ireland any latitude to do anything else here.

I live on the border and I cannot see a win for Ireland here if we are to protect the Single market which I think it is imperative we play our part in doing.

Currently, I am coming around to the position that we may have to pull on the green jersey (over our EU one) and seal the border as best we can.

It's cuts both ways here if there is no border controlling what is going into the north. Never minding the rest of the UK, the effect of cheaper goods (if things go predictably pear shaped in the UK, then things will be cheaper here) flooding northwards will destroy the already fragile economy of the north.

I am in favour of serious reform of EU. Right now would I vote leave no however in 5-6 years time and nothing changes then yes I would vote out.