Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Jamie2k9

Calina wrote: »

I believe you can open a new thread on the matter and I would like it if you did. I think this bears discussion.

I don't tend to trust the I'll get banned excuse though.

Of course I can, hence why I hadn't expanded it here.

FreudianSlippers

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I was answering the question asked and gave 5 areas. Here is not the place to discuss the details about changes. I will get banned if I do.

I actually asked for 3 reforms, you posted 5 talking points which mean nothing in isolation.

FreudianSlippers

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Member State power would include welfare which is why it was changed.

Are you alleging that "welfare" is not a "Member State power"?

FreudianSlippers

Calina wrote: »

I believe you can open a new thread on the matter and I would like it if you did. I think this bears discussion.

I don't tend to trust the I'll get banned excuse though.

IMHO it's relevant to the discussion at hand about Brexit and how we deal with the increasing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit.

FreudianSlippers

First Up wrote: »

Everything boarding a ship going to the EU will have to show it is either of EU origin or is imported in compliance with EU requirements.

But we are the EU

Jamie2k9

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Honestly, if we were to do this we may as well leave the EU and join the UK. I suspect partially that's your end-game here anyway?

Joining the UK not a chance.

VinLieger

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Joining the UK not a chance.

So we leave the EU and stand by ourselves? Because that is practically what you are suggesting by placing a blocker between us and the single market

FreudianSlippers

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Joining the UK not a chance.

So in your mind, Ireland can leave the EU, not join the UK and competitively trade under WTO rules because... reasons?

You thought the economic crash of 2008 was bad, if we did what you propose I'm not sure we'd be able to keep the lights on for more than a fiscal quarter.

Christy42

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Joining the UK not a chance.

Outside of being in the UK we are effectively in the UK in all but name. We joined the EU because they did. Had they altered food standards in the 60s we would have followed suit.

Honestly it is not that long in the grand scheme of things that them leaving didn't mean we had to leave.

I sure that leaving would not result in us rejoining the UK. However it would mean we would have to copy their policies. Similar to how if the UK does go no deal and wants a US deal they will have to copy their laws.

First Up

FreudianSlippers wrote:

But we are the EU

But not everything in Ireland might be from the EU. Its a special case and the EU is well used to dealing with such.

Plans are already well advanced for the necessary infrastructure, including a lorry park near Dublin Airport where NI/UK trucks can queue.

FrancieBrady

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

If it avoids a border then all Irish goods have checks entering mainland Europe however they are given priority to reduce disruption unlike those from UK/NI or rest of world.

Not sure you know what you are talking about or the complexities involved. I don't claim to be expert but even I know that would break down within a week and is effectively us leaving the SM voluntarily.

FreudianSlippers

First Up wrote: »

But not everything in Ireland might be from the EU. Its a special case and the EU is well used to dealing with such.

Plans are already well advanced for the necessary infrastructure, including a lorry park near Dublin Airport where NI/UK trucks can queue.

It's irrelevant. Ireland is the EU, by allowing goods to enter from the UK on a "special" basis is contrary to the single market and creates and unfair disadvantage to EU goods within the single market.

Enzokk

So Labour is a Remain party, right? They said they would never back a Conservative deal. Guess again...

https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1154159553300144133?s=20

Corbyn says Labour would back remain in Brexit referendum

Jeremy Corbyn has sought to draw a line under Labour’s Brexit travails by announcing a “settled” policy of backing remain in any referendum called on a Conservative deal.

Is there any wonder they are polling at 19% behind the Tories and the LibDems?

VinLieger

Enzokk wrote: »

Is there any wonder they are polling at 19% behind the Tories and the LibDems?

Their absolute refusal to take a position and stick to it on what is inarguably the greatest single issue their country has faced since the 2nd world war is quite pathetic, they deserve to be polling where they are however its unfortunate that means the tories will also be allowed get away with everything they want.

FreudianSlippers

Enzokk wrote: »

So Labour is a Remain party, right? They said they would never back a Conservative deal. Guess again...

https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1154159553300144133?s=20

Corbyn says Labour would back remain in Brexit referendum



Is there any wonder they are polling at 19% behind the Tories and the LibDems?

I mean, no harm in having a look at a deal or saying they would, knowing full well that there is no new deal that is going to happen.

reslfj

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Wow his brother has taken a job having resigned less than a year ago, calling for a second referendum.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1154148705555099649

What a family.

Nepotism - pure and simple. It's not a matter of competence. Just Nepotism.

Not illegal - but surely it should be.

Lars

trellheim

I'd expect a quick statement soon in the House on a Brexit offer


on live now

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/05844a50-a0d9-4d16-bd19-e9e3df717acb

time limit not enough, backstop must be abolished.

OH FFS

Back to 'other arrangements' .... strap in boys its gonna be rough

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

But I'm pretty confident that, when the border hardens, regardless of which side moves first to harden it, Irish public opinion will overwhelmingly, and quite rightly, put the blame on the UK.

IF the border hardens.

If Boris is not bluffing and goes for No Deal and gets it past Parliament somehow, the channel ports collapse, no food on the shelves, the Government collapses , there's an election and the new PM puts the backstop in place to try and get an emergency deal from the EU. Say January next year.

In the meantime, the Irish Governments low key border enforcement wont piss anyone off.

But Boris probably is bluffing, and may be counting on Parliament to block his No Deal bluff, in which case he will be forced (sadly and much against his will) to ask for another extension. The EU should just make it two years and forget the Brits for a while.

Headshot

trellheim wrote: »

I'd expect a quick statement soon in the House on a Brexit offer


on live now

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/05844a50-a0d9-4d16-bd19-e9e3df717acb

time limit not enough, backstop must be abolished.

OH FFS

God look at that front bench, shivers going down my spine but the upside to this is when Boris fails they'll turn on him in a blink of an eye

Enzokk

Once again he is trying to shift the blame to the EU. If the EU doesn't change the WA then the UK will be forced to leave without a deal and it will be the EU's fault.

Also, they will have £39bn extra apparently if they leave without a deal.

Youtube link to Sky News Live, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siyW0GOBtbo

BobbyBobberson

Enzokk wrote: »

Once again he is trying to shift the blame to the EU. If the EU doesn't change the WA then the UK will be forced to leave without a deal and it will be the EU's fault.

Also, they will have £39bn extra apparently if they leave without a deal.

Youtube link to Sky News Live, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siyW0GOBtbo

It will be 33bn not 39bn, that figure was based on a march leave date.

PropJoe10

BoJo is on fire already, deflecting blame and making irrational promises on his first day in office. Interesting times ahead!

murphaph

trellheim wrote: »

I'd expect a quick statement soon in the House on a Brexit offer


on live now

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/05844a50-a0d9-4d16-bd19-e9e3df717acb

time limit not enough, backstop must be abolished.

OH FFS

Back to 'other arrangements' .... strap in boys its gonna be rough

This is probably good for us as it will completely remove any lingering ideas in EU capitals that if Ireland would only bend a bit we'd have a deal.

We can't appease these lunatics in London. We prepare as best we can for no deal and a hard border and hope that it is removed later through a UI when the coffers start to run dry in Whitehall and NI is sacrificed first for "causing all this".

amacca

Gove doesn't look happy at all.

Enzokk

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

It will be 33bn not 39bn, that figure was based on a march leave date.

Only reporting what he said. He has a magic money forest, not just a tree. There will be money for everything, health and police and social services and investments. Either the previous governments were holding back, of which he was part of, or he is going to borrow money to pay for these. Looking back at his record, £40m wasted on the garden bridge, if he stays as PM for a while it is going to hurt the UK.

PropJoe10

amacca wrote: »

Gove doesn't look happy at all.

A lot of faces shown so far look bemused.

murphaph

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

IF the border hardens.

If Boris is not bluffing and goes for No Deal and gets it past Parliament somehow, the channel ports collapse, no food on the shelves, the Government collapses , there's an election and the new PM puts the backstop in place to try and get an emergency deal from the EU. Say January next year.

In the meantime, the Irish Governments low key border enforcement wont piss anyone off.

But Boris probably is bluffing, and may be counting on Parliament to block his No Deal bluff, in which case he will be forced (sadly and much against his will) to ask for another extension. The EU should just make it two years and forget the Brits for a while.

Make it contiguous with the EU 7 year budget cycle. If they ask for the extension we should give one that suits the rest of the EU.

Leroy42

Can't recall where I read it but I think the plan is as follows:

Johnson demands Backstop is removed.
To get into cabinet each member must sign up to 31 Oct No deal scenario.
Johnson waves some silly 'concession' at the EU (the rumour is something to do with EU citizens rights) in the knowledge they will reject it, but it will be painted as the UK being willing to negotiate.
PR people out everyday claiming that the EU must be willing to compromise, nothing is ever said about the many concessions the UK already received or why they should get further concessions. Simply that they must.
Stalemate, Johnson claims everything is being done, but he cannot avoid No Deal because of the Backstop.
No Deal happens 31 Oct.
Everything remains the same. (perception wise)
Johnson calls a snap election. BP is sidelined as Brexit is delivered. LibDems the same. Labour in complete disarray.
Johnson wins the election, and it is only after a few months that the real extent of No Deal becomes apparent (planning, stock piling, borrowing, stiff upper lip etc).
Johnson cannot be removed for at least a year, and next GE a further 5 years away.

amacca

He's just doubling down on the brexit bluster so he will be blocked and can then shift the blame on those that stopped him etc

murphaph

Can Johnson call a GE that soon given the Fixed Term Parliaments Act?