Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

jm08

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

If we enter another recession do you think the Government will come up smelling of roses?

The situation would be even worse if we are cut off from the Single Market. There are no winners in Brexit.


Just on the border - it was sealed off pretty damn quick during for the duration of the Foot & Mouth in 2001 (and it worked).

trellheim

theres a brilliant photo today of Bojo walking into No.10 with Dominic Cummings applauding just wearing a tshirt in the corner. Cant find it, scrolled past on twitter


https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1154092109907091456

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Can't recall where I read it but I think the plan is as follows:

Johnson demands Backstop is removed.
To get into cabinet each member must sign up to 31 Oct No deal scenario.
Johnson waves some silly 'concession' at the EU (the rumour is something to do with EU citizens rights) in the knowledge they will reject it, but it will be painted as the UK being willing to negotiate.
PR people out everyday claiming that the EU must be willing to compromise, nothing is ever said about the many concessions the UK already received or why they should get further concessions. Simply that they must.
Stalemate, Johnson claims everything is being done, but he cannot avoid No Deal because of the Backstop.
No Deal happens 31 Oct.
Everything remains the same.
Johnson calls a snap election. BP is sidelined as Brexit is delivered. LibDems the same. Labour in complete disarray.
Johnson wins the election, and it is only after a few months that the real extent of No Deal becomes apparent (planning, stock piling, borrowing, stiff upper lip etc).
Johnson cannot be removed for at least a year, and next GE a further 5 years away.

Johnson confirmed this morning that EU citizens' rights will be guaranteed in all eventualities.

og2k7

Been following this thread for months (first time posting here - there are people more in the know than myself) but f*ck me - we are going for a No-deal by the looks of things

I have been following the UK politics more than anything else (more than the US ones now) and I think we are in for a tough ride the next couple of years - considering stockpiling on rice etc

"Boris Johnson says he wants to make UK greatest country on earth in first statement to MP" Boris Johnson - Donald Trump

Where is he going to get the cash for the below:

Johnson says he is absolutely committed to delivering Brexit.

There are many officials in the EU would be be better placed working on trade deals in the UK.

He says the UK will not nominate a new European commissioner for after October.

He says he will not wait until 31 October before rebuilding Britain. He will start on this straight away.

He says NHS money will go to the frontline as soon as possible.

He has asked officials to work on plans to reduce waiting times and to speed up GP appointments.

He says the government will start hiring 20,000 more police officers as a priority.

He says he wants to ensure serious offenders serve their sentences on full.

The minimum level of per pupil fundings in schools will increase, he says.

And he will level up every area in the country.


I am getting worried now

Leroy42

murphaph wrote: »

Can Johnson call a GE that soon given the Fixed Term Parliaments Act?

It needs the support of parliament which they will get since Corbyn has long demanded a GE. Even he couldn't fail to vote for that.

The FTPA is designed to avoid having a GE each and everytime the government loses a vote.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Can't recall where I read it but I think the plan is as follows:

Johnson demands Backstop is removed.
To get into cabinet each member must sign up to 31 Oct No deal scenario.
Johnson waves some silly 'concession' at the EU (the rumour is something to do with EU citizens rights) in the knowledge they will reject it, but it will be painted as the UK being willing to negotiate.
PR people out everyday claiming that the EU must be willing to compromise, nothing is ever said about the many concessions the UK already received or why they should get further concessions. Simply that they must.
Stalemate, Johnson claims everything is being done, but he cannot avoid No Deal because of the Backstop.
No Deal happens 31 Oct.
Everything remains the same. (perception wise)
Johnson calls a snap election. BP is sidelined as Brexit is delivered. LibDems the same. Labour in complete disarray.
Johnson wins the election, and it is only after a few months that the real extent of No Deal becomes apparent (planning, stock piling, borrowing, stiff upper lip etc).
Johnson cannot be removed for at least a year, and next GE a further 5 years away.

I don't know how accurate the bold part is regarding the LibDems. I agree the Brexit Party will be done as a one policy party, but the LibDems could run on a manifesto of getting the EU back in the EU and it will drain Labour of votes.

I am also not sure why he would be safe for a year, surely a no-confidence vote can be called in the HoC at any time? I know the Tory party rules are that if a motion is defeated against the leader they cannot act in a year, but is there a rule in the same vein in the HoC?

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

No Deal happens 31 Oct.
Everything remains the same.

2 problems here -

Firstly, why would Parliament allow No Deal this time when they don't support it? Several Tories have gone on record recently saying No Deal is insane and they will stop it, and it only takes a few with the tiny majority Boris has.

Secondly, everything would not remain the same. The stock exchange will crash, Sterling will fall off a cliff, capital controls will be needed to stop flight, the ferries will stop taking lorries on the stroke of Brexit and by next day the traffic jam will reach London, UK airlines will cancel a all flights in Europe which do not start or stop in the UK etc. etc.

The effects will be instant and unmissable.

In fact, the second point may itself prevent No Deal. If we are in mid October and Boris is still bluffing, capital flight, a sterling crash and a stock market sell off may all start in advance, and scare the crap out of the Government.

Valhallapt

I think BJ / Cummings are planning to go to Brussels and ask for a goods only simple FTA. They will offer not to send anything that doesn’t meet EU standards to NI or send everything via Dublin port where it’ll be checked. Then NI goods flow easily West and South. But the Britain / NI direct ferries have a few more checks or only allow trusted trader.

Leroy42

og2k7 wrote: »

Been following this thread for months (first time posting here - there are people more in the know than myself) but f*ck me - we are going for a No-deal by the looks of things

I have been following the UK politics more than anything else (more than the US ones now) and I think we are in for a tough ride the next couple of years - considering stockpiling on rice etc

"Boris Johnson says he wants to make UK greatest country on earth in first statement to MP" Boris Johnson - Donald Trump

Where is he going to get the cash for the below:

Johnson says he is absolutely committed to delivering Brexit.

There are many officials in the EU would be be better placed working on trade deals in the UK.

He says the UK will not nominate a new European commissioner for after October.

He says he will not wait until 31 October before rebuilding Britain. He will start on this straight away.

He says NHS money will go to the frontline as soon as possible.

He has asked officials to work on plans to reduce waiting times and to speed up GP appointments.

He says the government will start hiring 20,000 more police officers as a priority.

He says he wants to ensure serious offenders serve their sentences on full.

The minimum level of per pupil fundings in schools will increase, he says.

And he will level up every area in the country.


I am getting worried now

And yet he was in the last governments that stood over all the reasons why those things are now necessary.

They all sound great, and perfectly reasonable. But how, when, what cost?

The man doesn't do detail, doesn't do facts. He is great at soundbites. There is a position now that Johnson wil surround himself with the best, that he is a CEO type figure. But he has no history of that. Was he a success in Foreign Office? London Mayor he overspent massively on a number of big projects.

Professor Moriarty

Valhallapt wrote: »

I think BJ / Cummings are planning to go to Brussels and ask for a goods only simple FTA. They will offer not to send anything that doesn’t meet EU standards to NI or send everything via Dublin port where it’ll be checked. Then NI goods flow easily West and South. But the Britain / NI direct ferries have a few more checks or only allow trusted trader.

But the EU have emphatically rejected any micro deals. Or cakeism if you will. It's the WA or nothing.

BobbyBobberson

Johnson babbling breathlessly and at high speed.

No there is no such restrictions on holding a confidence vote again.
The main one is politics - the opposition calling one can galvanize recalcitrant government backbenchers.

They have to be pretty sure they have the numbers.
How many labour MPs would rebel in a vote at the start of September?

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The effects will be instant and unmissable.

In fact, the second point may itself prevent No Deal. If we are in mid October and Boris is still bluffing, capital flight, a sterling crash and a stock market sell off may all start in advance, and scare the crap out of the Government.

Well in terms of the ForEx and stock market, that happened after the Ref result and it was simply laughed off as the markets lacking faith etc. Most people won't be effected.

IN terms of the deliveries etc, EU has already said that Flights will continue, transport etc. There will be a period of time to allow both sides to adjust.

Not that it won't happen, but IMO the plan will be that people won't notice. At least not in time to vote in a GE. A GE where Johnson can claim to have delivered the 'Will of the People'. Cue posters of Johnson akin to Chruchill etc.

Valhallapt

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But the EU have emphatically rejected any micro deals. Or cakeism if you will. It's the WA or nothing.

I’m not talking of a set of mini deals. One FTA which I think was previously on the table. Aka Canada type deal, goods only.

Zubeneschamali

Valhallapt wrote: »

I think BJ / Cummings are planning to go to Brussels and ask for a goods only simple FTA.

EU response: Sounds cool, ratify the WA and we will discuss an FTA, should be able to negotiate something we like in just 5 or 7 years!

Professor Moriarty

Valhallapt wrote: »

I’m not talking of a set of mini deals. One FTA which I think was previously on the table. Aka Canada type deal, goods only.

Yeah but that means ditching the WA and doing what Johnson wants. Can't be seen to happen.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Posts deleted. No more insults and one-liners please.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

EU response: Sounds cool, ratify the WA and we will discuss an FTA, should be able to negotiate something we like in just 5 or 7 years!

Yes that is my understanding. Maybe someone on here can clarify as I have heard this point about what the EU offered a number of times from MP's.

As I understand it, the EU are saying that they are open to different options depending on the UK wish list (red lines). TM gave the red lines which meant that the backstop was required.

Any FTA agreement is dependent on a WA. So it is wrong to suggest that a FTA was every available in isolation?

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

No there is no such restrictions on holding a confidence vote again.
The main one is politics - the opposition calling one can galvanize recalcitrant government backbenchers.

They have to be pretty sure they have the numbers.
How many labour MPs would rebel in a vote at the start of September?

How many Labour MPs would rebel to prop up a very right wing Tory government? Only those who were charlatans all along.

Enzokk

98 and a half days until Brexit and we have Johnson babbling away at the dispatch box like there is no rush. He has not answered a question and this is what people like about him, talking quickly and incoherently about vaguely on point references to what he is supposed to be discussing and so avoiding scrutiny.

He will win support for this style but it will not win any friends in other countries when serious situations will come up.

Stop moaning ffs

The troubling thing is Johnson again here promising the sun moon and stars for endless amounts of domestic projects and funding for all.
He clearly can’t deliver much if any of it so when will people r see through the hot air and bluster and realise they’ve been conned and didn’t even have a say in how they’re being conned?

All of this in order to distract from the impending no deal brexit that he knows is inevitable

Valhallapt

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah but that means ditching the WA and doing what Johnson wants. Can't be seen to happen.

Well that’s if no U.K. red lines change. Here they can be changed, e.g. Northern Ireland must be treated the same, if he drops that red line he’ll het a deal. He’ll tell everyone he saved the union from the backstop, while fundamentally creating a type of goods border in the Irish Sea.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

98 and a half days until Brexit and we have Johnson babbling away at the dispatch box like there is no rush. He has not answered a question and this is what people like about him, talking quickly and incoherently about vaguely on point references to what he is supposed to be discussing and so avoiding scrutiny.

He will win support for this style but it will not win any friends in other countries when serious situations will come up.

The problem is that, in contrast, Corbyn looks and sounds like a burnt out geography teacher.

Stop moaning ffs

Valhallapt wrote: »

Well that’s if no U.K. red lines change. Here they can be changed, e.g. Northern Ireland must be treated the same, if he drops that red line he’ll het a deal. He’ll tell everyone he saved the union from the backstop, while fundamentally creating a type of goods border in the Irish Sea.

That’s been my view on it all along. Border in the sea and he’ll claim victory and brexit delivered.

Professor Moriarty

Valhallapt wrote: »

Well that’s if no U.K. red lines change. Here they can be changed, e.g. Northern Ireland must be treated the same, if he drops that red line he’ll het a deal. He’ll tell everyone he saved the union from the backstop, while fundamentally creating a type of goods border in the Irish Sea.

That would be a massive shift. It would make May look hard line by comparison. But he'll still have to sign up to the WA. If the EU caves in on the WA, then what's the point of the EU?

Zubeneschamali

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That’s been my view on it all along. Border in the sea and he’ll claim victory and brexit delivered.

But that is just the original backstop which the DUP are absolutely not having, so it won't get through Parliament.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But that is just the original backstop which the DUP are absolutely not having, so it won't get through Parliament.

It might if enough Labour MP's vote for it. Then call a GE, having delivered Brexit, and hope for a majority.

And lets face it, one thing Johnson can do is campaign. There is this narrative that Corbyn was amazing at the last election, yet little it talked about just how terrible TM was. Utterly shambolic. Not even just her failure to have a debate. On the hustings she was terrible. Stiff, monotone, stuck rigidly to prearranged talking points.

Johnson will win many more votes simply by not being as utterly useless as TM.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But that is just the original backstop which the DUP are absolutely not having, so it won't get through Parliament.

Boris says to the DUP, pull that trigger and you and Tory support are gone for all time?

Calls their bluff, in other words. It's that or go the same way as May, only quicker.

Valhallapt

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But that is just the original backstop which the DUP are absolutely not having, so it won't get through Parliament.

Well I think it be technically different, NI won’t be in the EUs custom territory. There are checks moving animals between Britain and NI as is, they claim it’s a minor extension of that and small subset of goods available in Britain won’t be available in NI, but constitutionally no real change to NI

Stop moaning ffs

Well the main DUP heads all said yesterday the confidence and supply agreement is up for review soon so they’ll want their next £1 billion hush money and further grip on the reins.
Fair chance Johnson is busy on a workaround to not have to depend on their votes.
If he had any sense that is.