Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Boris says to the DUP, pull that trigger and you and Tory support are gone for all time?

Calls their bluff, in other words.

The DUP aren't bluffing and really will bring down the Government, so there's that plan wrecked.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The DUP aren't bluffing and really will bring down the Government, so there's that plan wrecked.

But doesn't it come down inevitably anyway?

J Mysterio

Bizarre watching Parliament TV and the backslapping. Worst part is them all wishing each other a nice summer holiday.
Summer should be cancelled.

reslfj

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't understand what happens to people ....

I make 1000's of crossing a year as do many many more. What is to stop us taking un-regulated products across and slipping them into containers originating in the south?

There are no and will be no check of people at the NI-RoI border - free travel within the CTA.

The CTA is a bilateral agreement between the UK and Ireland. It's outside all EU treaties and will not cease on Brexit day.
The EU has accepted that Ireland and the UK are not Schengen members as long as both countries agrees to the (older than Schengen) CTA.
The UK and Ireland is upgrading (or I think has very recently upgraded) the CTA. (ZA citizens were treated differently in London and Dublin - AFAIR)

All EU citizens can get a passport and travel to very many of the worlds countries including the UK just by showing their passport at entry. This is based on international agreements on passports and agreements between many countries on visa free travel.
In Europe (excl. Russia) you will typically be allowed to stay 90 days in the other country.
The Schengen area has its own visa rules, but EU citizens outside Schengen and many people from developed countries can enter by showing just their passport.

The border backstop is only about enforcing standards, rules and regulations for goods, but may also involve tariffs if a FTA is not agreed with the EU27.
Regulations also involves such things as animal health checks (now largely checked at Larne)

The border issue is also about the need for one common jurisdiction across the border including a top court e.g. the ECJ.

Lars

PS!
Borders can only be used to check and prevent people with illegal status to enter. People with papers will be allowed to enter and must be checked where they stay (above 90 days) and where they (should not) work.

theguzman

I must say Boris is one entertaining character with great charisma, he really destroyed Corbyn and the remainers this morning, He alone will lead the tories to another election victory as the working class Brexiteer will back him and with Farage allied with him they will both resonate well for the battle between the liberal PC leftist london elite of Labour and the little England shires which delivered Brexit. I can see Boris being the best PM since Thatcher and Churchill. The way in which he will crush the EU will long be viewed into the future as a turning point in History when the Franco-German powergrab was once again stopped but this time without a shot being fired.

Stop moaning ffs

Just a quick search of DUP on twitter and almost all the conversation is about Johnson working up to election so as to remove the need for the DUP and also eliminate the brexit party threat and get the votes.

Sam Russell

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The problem is that a national Government won't coalesce around Corbyn, it would be Starmer or similar. So if it isn't Corbyn that makes it to No. 10 why would he back a national Government?

As I said in an earlier post, the PM under a 'National Government to stop No Deal' would have to be a Tory remainer, such Ken Clarke or Dominic Grieve or someone else. Corbyn could be excluded or he could be Deputy PM, but unless there was a Tory as PM, it would not attract enough Tories.

Corbyn would be irrelevant if the numbers are there - Lib Dems plus SNP, plsu disaffected Tories (maybe 30 or 40) plus disaffected Labour (perhaps 150 or more). There were enough to move to block the No Deal in March, and enough to make proroguing Parliament in Sept and Oct. So who knows?

If the numbers are not there, then it will not happen.

FrancieBrady

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Just a quick search of DUP on twitter and almost all the conversation is about Johnson working up to election so as to remove the need for the DUP and also eliminate the brexit party threat and get the votes.

If it is true that Julian Smith's only public engagement with NI was to attend the DUP conference then they should be happy the Tory's sent them another 'special friend'.

Stop moaning ffs

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If it is true that Julian Smith's only public engagement with NI was to attend the DUP conference then they should be happy the Tory's sent them another 'special friend'.

Yeah the loyalist accounts are all over the moon with him. Just reading he hasn’t said ireland the Irish irish republic or anything like it not once in 9 years in HOC.

FrancieBrady

Sky commentator is right, Boris at the dispatch box for the first time is basically Boris in 'campaign' mode.

Stop moaning ffs

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sky commentator is right, Boris at the dispatch box for the first time is basically Boris in 'campaign' mode.

Clearly in election mode but also saying Oct 31st they’re leaving.

The two are not compatible

First Up

FreudianSlippers wrote:

It's irrelevant. Ireland is the EU, by allowing goods to enter from the UK on a "special" basis is contrary to the single market and creates and unfair disadvantage to EU goods within the single market.

They will not enter on a special basis; the geography of the situation just requires they be processed in a customised way.

Nothing from the UK will move on into mainland EU unless it has been cleared. Nothing from the UK will enter Irish supply chains (retail, industrial or agricultural) without pre-clearance.

This will be systemised, automated, transparent and entirely consistent with Single Market requirements.

The UK will still have the option of putting the necessary administration in place between Britain and N Ireland. Otherwise it will be done here. Their choice; Frontex has designed and oversees dozens of places across the EU's land frontiers and will work with whatever the political, logisticalsl and commercial situations require.

Sam Russell

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Not really been following the make up of the 39b. Yes they are continuing payments and still receiving whatever they were before 29 March. Equally latest EU elections will cost a lot with pensions. So is it really going down?

The pension element is not UK recipients of EU pensions. It is the UK share of all EU pensions since tthe UK joined the EU 45 years ago. An actuarial assessment will be made as to the likely cost of those pensions for every person employed by the EU from when the UK joined until they leave.

Someone joining the EU today will earn a pension from the time they join until they retire and that pension will continue until they die, and if their spouse is entitled to a share of that pension, until they also die. That could be sixty or seventy years hence. The UK contribution to such a pension would be trivial, but all these pensions roll up.

Like all the elements that add up to the UK liability, they are complex and there are assets and liabilities. The net figure has not been calculated in the WA, just the methodology, but it is in the ballpark of €45 billion.

upupup

SNIP.

Beechwoodspark

My sense is he is ramping up playing hard ball talk and wooing the Brexiteers in advance of an election

MrMusician18

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sky commentator is right, Boris at the dispatch box for the first time is basically Boris in 'campaign' mode.

I think it's part of the Cummings/Bannon playbook, to be always campaigning.

Remains to be seen whether the Brits buy that or get sick of the bluster. I'd bet on them buying it.

VinLieger

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I think it's part of the Cummings/Hannon playbook, to be always campaigning.

Remains to be seen whether the Brits buy that or get sick of the bluster. I'd bet on them buying it.

They definitely will buy it for now and possibly even until October 31st but will it hold out, once realities start hitting home in the event of a no deal bluster wont keep things ticking over even if Johnson does manage to win the election eventually things will fall apart and promises wont be kept

trellheim

Whatever BJ says from now on, has been vetted by Dominic Cummings first. I was wondering who was running such an excellent campaign ....

Lackadaisical

First Up wrote: »

They will not enter on a special basis; the geography of the situation just requires they be processed in a customised way.

Nothing from the UK will move on into mainland EU unless it has been cleared. Nothing from the UK will enter Irish supply chains (retail, industrial or agricultural) without pre-clearance.

This will be systemised, automated, transparent and entirely consistent with Single Market requirements.

The UK will still have the option of putting the necessary administration in place between Britain and N Ireland. Otherwise it will be done here. Their choice; Frontex has designed and oversees dozens of places across the EU's land frontiers and will work with whatever the political, logisticalsl and commercial situations require.

All I see there is a list of wishes and aspirations for a technological solution that doesn’t exist anywhere else right now and is likely to create a situation where the border would be unenforceable and result in a complete mess for the internal market between Ireland and the rest of the EU.

It’s an absolute disaster of a situation that takes us back to pre 1993 (and probably further) and all these statements about technology solutions and comparisons to unspecified examples of similar situations (they don’t exist) is patronising at best and utter hogwash at worst.

Either there’s a political compromise with a special status for Northern Ireland that allows the status quo to exist, or you’ve a choice between the UK remaining in the customs union or a border.

Ireland pulling out of the single market is also an option but a suicidal one. We might as well just all emigrate again as it would be back to the grim 80s as we would not longer be an attractive location for business be it FDI or indigenous.

Realistically speaking, unless the Irish public are willing to take an absolutely massive cut in incomes and standards of living, we are going to have to deal with a border until the NI political situation decides to resolve itself.

Looking at it totally dispassionately the choice will be the economy or a border and that’s entirely the UK’s doing by ripping up all the trading arrangements.

The British based brexiteers don’t give a damn, or think you can wish the problem away if you close your eyes and believe hard enough and the DUP is probably delighted with the prospect of a return to the old days of hard boarders and maybe destroying the GFA. They never supported the agreement in the first place and they seem to be determined to drag NI back to the past.

Nody

theguzman wrote: »

I must say Boris is one entertaining character with great charisma, he really destroyed Corbyn and the remainers this morning, He alone will lead the tories to another election victory as the working class Brexiteer will back him and with Farage allied with him they will both resonate well for the battle between the liberal PC leftist london elite of Labour and the little England shires which delivered Brexit. I can see Boris being the best PM since Thatcher and Churchill. The way in which he will crush the EU will long be viewed into the future as a turning point in History when the Franco-German powergrab was once again stopped but this time without a shot being fired.

Qouted so it can be reposted once the crash out has happened to show the expectations vs. reality coming crashing in at the time. I've heard many various brexiteers making predictions on this thread; some more realistic than others but this one is so far out the left field it's worth saving for history.

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Clearly in election mode but also saying Oct 31st they’re leaving.

The two are not compatible

Well maybe; here's what I'm thinking. Call an GE to happen first week of November "to let the people tell us what they think of Brexit" and go for leaving in any form required on 31st Oct. Then bank on the fact people are so tired of Brexit by then that any leaving will be good enough for him to get a majority and because the crash out has not happened until very late in the campaign trail Libs, Labour etc. can't complain to much about it (and Boris can keep claiming project fear through out) and that the crash out effects will not be fully felt by the time (and all those lovely post votes will come in before the crash etc.). Score majority on a "I deliver Brexit and take responsibility to see us through the aftermath" as platform and Bob's your uncle for another 4 years to sort things out. This gives him a chance to clean out his cabinet again as Brexit is delivered with a new "consolatory" Tory team make up to try to heal the rift Brexit caused. Or I could give his campaign managers way to much leeway.

Shelga

Good points made about the logical solution being a return to the NI-only backstop, and throwing the DUP under the bus. If Boris even tries this though, can the DUP withdraw their support immediately and collapse the government, forcing a GE? Would they actually do this, knowing they would be waving goodbye to the only real power they've had in decades?

There are so many iterations for how this could all go, my head is fried with it all.

Stop moaning ffs

Nody wrote: »

Qouted so it can be reposted once the crash out has happened to show the expectations vs. reality coming crashing in at the time. I've heard many various brexiteers making predictions on this thread; some more realistic than others but this one is so far out the left field it's worth saving for history.

The poster seems to ignore the fact that once the border goes up there will be many shots fired and sooner rather than later.
Then an inevitable bomb going off in London planted by some IRA wanna be group.
Not advocating for that but it would slap some focus into minds and send us down a far darker path. Or bring about a UI possibly.

jimmycrackcorm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

In the meantime, the Irish Governments low key border enforcement wont piss anyone off.
.

What will happen is that in November, the brits will just say: look, the border isn't an issue after all

Stop moaning ffs

Shelga wrote: »

Good points made about the logical solution being a return to the NI-only backstop, and throwing the DUP under the bus. If Boris even tries this though, can the DUP withdraw their support immediately and collapse the government, forcing a GE? Would they actually do this, knowing they would be waving goodbye to the only real power they've had in decades?

There are so many iterations for how this could all go, my head is fried with it all.

The chatter seems to be that the election is to ultimately get rid of the need for DUP support and kill the brexit party.
Even a brief glance on twitter you’ll see unionists up north saying they know they’re about to get sold up the river by Johnson in order to get brexit. just a matter of when.

For Forks Sake

https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1154153775541751810

Not even remotely surprising.
And just like the 2016 referendum campaign, there will be plenty of willing idiots only too glad to offer up their data.

J Mysterio

You can enjoy Boris' opening statement as PM here, including his comments on the backstop.

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/05844a50-a0d9-4d16-bd19-e9e3df717acb?in=11:32:08&out=11:49:00

Professor Moriarty

For Forks Sake wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1154153775541751810

Not even remotely surprising.
And just like the 2016 referendum campaign, there will be plenty of willing idiots only too glad to offer up their data.

Like Johnson gives a crap about what some randomer on a council estate in Leeds thinks. Laughable. What's even more laughable is the pledge for more money for the NHS after Brexit. Fool me once...

Rjd2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The problem is that, in contrast, Corbyn looks and sounds like a burnt out geography teacher.

A reminder of the bad old days when he used to struggle with Cameron.

Its impossible to predict what will happen with most confidence, but think the election which is coming and tbf to Boris he is correct to prepare for,,,will end with up with Lib Dems been king makers.

They will go into Government with Labour but probably will demand that Corbyn steps down and I think he will....ignore the vocal Corybn disciples online, majority of Labour voters want Brexit defeated and Corbyn been hopeless means no deal is very much on. This is not 2017 where he rocked up to Glastonbury and got a great reception,,,the sitting on the fence act doesn't work anymore.

Starmer seems to be doing well in recent member polls, he'd be very acceptable to the Lib Dems, heck he'd probably be a much more formidable opponent for Boris than Jez.

trellheim

EU27 diplomats have received a note from @MichelBarnier saying that @BorisJohnson’;s demand to eliminate the backstop is unacceptable, that his speech today was “combative” and that the UK’s increased preps for No Deal are designed to crack unity of the EU.

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1154389502208729094

Apparently they could not even ring Juncker last night as they got the timezone wrong. Again though nothing happens by chance in any of this - not even Williamson being rehired as Education secretary.

Strazdas

For Forks Sake wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1154153775541751810

Not even remotely surprising.
And just like the 2016 referendum campaign, there will be plenty of willing idiots only too glad to offer up their data.

I suspect Dominic Cummings is behind all this.

Cameron's former adviser was on Newsnight last night and he reckons Cummings is pulling all Johnson's strings and told him to sack most of May's cabinet.