Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

Interesting. There already seems to be a schism in the Brexiter wing of the party with Steve Baker apparently having turned down a ministerial role.

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1154465833113927680

Baker cites powerlessness but the cynic in me reckons he is distancing himself from the inevitable disaster of a no deal Brexit.

trellheim

I had to go off and read the UK fixed term parliament act. Under it exempt a Vote of no confidence only a 2/3 majority of all MPs so you need 429 . Labour are not thick but its bullying weapon Boris cant go to the country by himself

So the big assumption is that Labour would vote for a GE before Brexit date and it is just about possible

this is playing with the nation stuff and very ugly

of course if you had the GE after 31 october Labour would win as the tories would have fked the country (scorched earth stuff though)

nc6000

Mark Francois just said on Newsnight that even with the backstop removed the ERG will not vote for the WA.

Jamie2k9

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And?

Are the EU careering off a cliff on a unicorn after wasting the last 3 years fighting amongst themselves over some cake?

The point is neither side are really on holidays and there will be contact made.

Jamie2k9

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Wondered about this earlier.

Boris is saying leave 31st but clearly he’s geared up for election.

So is the request for extension happening before that date owing to election?

Or is it out in the 31st and election after?

He will most likely be forced by MPs to stop a no deal and will then be forced to change current legalisation departure date. This will gear him up for a bitter election campaign because he will say he had no choice but to extend and immediately call an election and it will be a case give me a majority and we will leave most likely 31 March 2020 and if no prob a second ref which I think might deliver the same result.

Mr.Nice Guy

nc6000 wrote: »

Mark Francois just said on Newsnight that even with the backstop removed the ERG will not vote for the WA.

His smugness is off the charts. Actually used the phrase "Herr Juncker in the bunker". These people are not well.

Not a fan of Kirsty Wark who just let him ramble on and barely challenged him. Emily Maitlis a far better host.

Strazdas

nc6000 wrote: »

Mark Francois just said on Newsnight that even with the backstop removed the ERG will not vote for the WA.

This point is being completely overlooked by the likes of Dan O'Brien and Eoghan Harris. Even if the Irish Govt. conceded on the backstop, it probably wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to the ERG,

BonnieSituation

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

The point is neither side are really on holidays and there will be contact made.

Your point was well disguised so it came across as a pointed jab at the EU.

Strazdas

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

His smugness is off the charts. Actually used the phrase "Herr Juncker in the bunker". These people are not well.

Not a fan of Kirsty Wark who just let him ramble on and barely challenged him. Emily Maitlis a far better host.

Juncker is not even German! :eek:

Shelga

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

His smugness is off the charts. Actually used the phrase "Herr Juncker in the bunker". These people are not well.

Not a fan of Kirsty Wark who just let him ramble on and barely challenged him. Emily Maitlis a far better host.

Totally agree, he is absolutely unbearable. The fact that any sane person sees red when they see him was clearly enough editorial justification to have him on, there is no other reason.

The way he constantly barks “hang on” to any presenter trying to question him is unbelievably rude and arrogant. Agree Emily Maitlis would have done a better job- he probably only agreed to come on knowing it was her night off.

What the hell was he talking about- the EU offered the UK a free trade deal 18 months ago? Is this to do with when the idea was an NI-only backstop? There has never been any offer of a free trade deal without first passing the WA, has there? He’s making me question my sanity, the stuff he comes out with is just so ludicrous.

listermint

Strazdas wrote: »

This point is being completely overlooked by the likes of Dan O'Brien and Eoghan Harris. Even if the Irish Govt. conceded on the backstop, it probably wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to the ERG,

Why would they want a deal.


Sure how could their disaster capitalist bets come in then.

Only the naive think brexit is about anything other than making a slim sect of people very very very wealthy.

Valhallapt

Strazdas wrote: »

This point is being completely overlooked by the likes of Dan O'Brien and Eoghan Harris. Even if the Irish Govt. conceded on the backstop, it probably wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to the ERG,

Yea I used to enjoy reading Dan OBrien, but I just can see how he arrives at his point of view.

Sparko

nc6000 wrote: »

Mark Francois just said on Newsnight that even with the backstop removed the ERG will not vote for the WA.

Goes to show that any compromise over the last few years on the backstop wouldn't have solved anything and that the hardliners would have just found something else to protest against.

Mr.Nice Guy

Shelga wrote: »

What the hell was he talking about- the EU offered the UK a free trade deal 18 months ago? Is this to do with when the idea was an NI-only backstop? There has never been any offer of a free trade deal without first passing the WA, has there? He’s making me question my sanity, the stuff he comes out with is just so ludicrous.

Yeah he seemed to be referring to Tusk's suggestions of a Canada-style offer. He left out the fact that this idea involved NI remaining aligned with the EU.

newport2

Strazdas wrote: »

This point is being completely overlooked by the likes of Dan O'Brien and Eoghan Harris. Even if the Irish Govt. conceded on the backstop, it probably wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to the ERG,

I don't think the ERG ever cared about the backstop. It was used as an excuse to oppose everything and avoid admitting earlier that all they wanted was no deal. If a GE happens and with a majority in the commons, I think they will happily throw the DUP under the bus and leave the backstop in NI in place.

Kermit.de.frog

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

His smugness is off the charts. Actually used the phrase "Herr Juncker in the bunker". These people are not well.

Not a fan of Kirsty Wark who just let him ramble on and barely challenged him. Emily Maitlis a far better host.

For anyone who can bare it...

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1154510268379959296

This is the standard of politician in the UK now. Don't mention the war.

BonnieSituation

Sparko wrote: »

Goes to show that any compromise over the last few years on the backstop wouldn't have solved anything and that the hardliners would have just found something else to protest against.

And yet people will come on here and insist we need to compromise.

I want someone just once to ask them what exactly is wrong with the backstop and do they know what it's for!

It never happens!

BonnieSituation

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

For anyone who can bare it...

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1154510268379959296

This is the standard of politician in the UK now. Don't mention the war.

He really is the pits.

Tell me how

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

For anyone who can bare it...

This is the standard of politician in the UK now. Don't mention the war.

I know his constituency is a safe Conservative seat but to think that this character can be elected to Westminster 5 times in a row is just mind boggling.

InTheShadows

Tell me how wrote: »

I know his constituency is a safe Conservative seat but to think that this character can be elected to West Minister 5 times in a row is just mind boggling.

Look at some of the idiots we have elected here. People in glasshouses etc...

Infini

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Europeans have their position nailed down.

An extension was granted so that the UK could decide on what they actually want, and come up with workable solutions to issues with the current/proposed agreement. They haven't done any of that.

Only one side deserves a break.

I think at this point considering the shenanigans in in the United Memedom at this stage that the EU side should be ready to allow them to crash out by their own choice come Oct 31. Noone really want's this except the deluded fools who are currently running the UK government right now but ultimately thing's cannot be allowed to go on forever simply because the conservatives who have enabled all this at some point will have to own the consequences of a problem they created through their own vainglory.

Personally the way thing's look the whole Brexit fiasco will only end either if there's a snap election that ultimately heaves the Conservatives out of goverment entirely and results in sane and realistic people getting in that stops this or there ultimately is a No Deal Brexit caused by Boris biting off more than he can chew and ultimately there is no UK a few years down the line as it breaks apart.

We dont want this happening of course but honestly it might be better to try and Tough it out because ultimately for all their Bravado over there we can ultimately survive this and adapt, they'll fall apart because every one of them in that Conservative party over there is out for themselves and has no plan at all except as we've all seen Rainbows and Unicorns aka Fantasy Land ideas.

jimmycrackcorm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

He really is the pits.

Incredible that he thinks Junker is German just based on the surname.

BonnieSituation

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Incredible that he thinks Junker is German just based on the surname.

Well I mean "Francois" isn't exactly "Rosbif" now is it...

Strazdas

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And yet people will come on here and insist we need to compromise.

I want someone just once to ask them what exactly is wrong with the backstop and do they know what it's for!

It never happens!

They believe it will keep them "trapped" in the customs union thing. Their actual aim is to go for No Deal.

MrMusician18

Strazdas wrote: »

This point is being completely overlooked by the likes of Dan O'Brien and Eoghan Harris. Even if the Irish Govt. conceded on the backstop, it probably wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to the ERG,

It would be just another win put in the pocket, like the all UK customs union, and they'd then find another issue to complain about.

Bit cynical

murphaph wrote: »

This is probably good for us as it will completely remove any lingering ideas in EU capitals that if Ireland would only bend a bit we'd have a deal.

What evidence is there that Ireland has been under pressure of any sort from EU capitals to soften its position?

ThePanjandrum

Strazdas wrote: »

Juncker is not even German! :eek:

I'm not going to get at Juncker here but to be accurate, although Juncker is from Luxembourg, German is one of the official languages so he might well have been addressed as Herr Juncker. Also, although he was born after the war, his father served in the German army in the Second World War. Doesn't make him a Nazi, of course, but it might be part of the reason for Francois' remarks.

Peregrinus

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Wondered about this earlier.

Boris is saying leave 31st but clearly he’s geared up for election.

So is the request for extension happening before that date owing to election?

Or is it out in the 31st and election after?

The Boris Plan, so far as I can make out, is this.

1. Starty off by presenting as Mr Firm-but-fair. Want an agreement. Assert loudly that you believe an agreement is possible between reasonable fair-minded chaps. Say you are prepared to exit without a deal if you are compelled to, but really see no reason why that should be necessary.

2. At the same time continue to reject the agreement already negotiated, and make sure that any alternatives you talk about are such as cannot possibly be accepted by the EU.

3. Object here is to position the EU as intransigent.

4. Just in time for the party conference in September, announce that you have regretfully concluded that, due to continued EU intransigence, a deal will not be possible. UK has no option but to honour the Will of the People by exiting without a deal. Deliver "blood sweat toil and tears" speach to hysterically cheering party faithful. Follow up with public ready-for-no-deal campaign advising people to stockpile medicines, dig for victory, be alert not alarmed, that kind of thing. If this doesn't work, deliver Sportpalast speech.

5. What do I mean, "If this doesn't work?". This is where the plan gets a bit risky. Crucial to the Boris plan is that the UK should not actually leave without a deal, since that would certainly destroy him, probably destroy the Tory party and possibly destroy the Union. So he needs to spook Parliament into stopping him. As we know, the Tory remainers are a pretty spineless bunch who shy away, in the end, from actually taking effective steps to stop a no-deal Brexit, so he needs to ramp up the horrors in order to stiffen their spines and get them actually to act. At the same time he needs to appear to be solidly committed to no-deal himself. So it's a "stop me before I kill again!" strategy.

6. Right. If the strategy works, Parliament stops Boris from taking the UK out of the EU without a deal.

7. Boris has now positioned himself as Mr Will-of-the-People No-Deal Brexit, who is being opposed by the twin forces of (a) brutal oppressive jackbooted intransigent unelected bureaucrats of Brussels, and (b) undemocratic elitist remainers in Parliament. This is where he wants to be.

8. Boris seeks a general election, in order to secure a mandate from the people for his Brexit policy. He seeks (and will certainly get) a further extension from the EU to allow the GE to be conducted and any new government to enter into office.

9. Having positioned himself as he has, he hopes either (a) to see off the Brexit Party - why vote for Farage when you have Boris? - or (b) to form an electoral alliance with them. At the same time the opposition is in a disunited, parlous condition. In these conditions, Boris thinks he has a fair chance of being returned with a secure majority, even on what might be as little as 35% of the vote.

10. If this works, and Borish gets a secure majority, what then? I think at this point Boris goes back to being Mr Firm-but-fair and says he will give the EU one more chance at a negotiated deal. But this time, maybe, he puts forward alternatives which the EU can accept. Most obviously, with the DUP back to honking forlornly into the void at the margins of Westminster politics, he can demand the NI-only backstop that he knows is the preference of the EU (and of NI, of course). The EU will of course accept. Boris probably has the skills to get away with presenting this as a victory. The UK then leaves the EU on a deal not that different from May's deal. Brexit has happened, the Brexit party is effectively neutralised, the public heaves a great sigh of relief and resolves never to speak of the matter again, and Boris has a 5-year term as PM. The long slow grind of planning and executing the UK's post-Brexit future on a harm minimisation basis begins under the day-to-day management of Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove, while Boris goes back to doing what he does best - bluster, bloviation, the spawning of unacknowledged offspring and hanging about on zipwires.

Bit cynical

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

His smugness is off the charts. Actually used the phrase "Herr Juncker in the bunker". These people are not well.

Not a fan of Kirsty Wark who just let him ramble on and barely challenged him. Emily Maitlis a far better host.

He said Här Juncker in the bunker. The Luxembourgish Här sounds very similar to the German Herr which is the reason I think some of us are getting confused.

Rjd2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Interesting. There already seems to be a schism in the Brexiter wing of the party with Steve Baker apparently having turned down a ministerial role.

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1154465833113927680

Baker cites powerlessness but the cynic in me reckons he is distancing himself from the inevitable disaster of a no deal Brexit.

Owen Bennett suggested he wanted a bigger role.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/15-things-dominic-cummings-tory-mps

Anyone who seen the channel 4 show with Sherlock Holmes will know how much Cummings loathes the ERG mob so its going to be interesting to see how he handles them.

BUzzfeed link some of his comments on them.

Those of you in the narcissist-delusional subset of the ERG who have spent the last three years scrambling for the 810 Today slot while spouting gibberish about trade and the law across SW1 — i.e exactly the contemptible behaviour that led to your enforced marginalisation during the referendum and your attempt to destroy Vote Leave — you are also in the pirate category.