Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Cue nightmare poll scenario:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160

At least Lib Dems would have more seats than the Tories ...

Except they wouldn't due to first past the post and the lib dems having little support in a lot of places

mickoneill31

https://london.web2ua.com/the-european-banking-authority-leaves-london-forbes-6315/

This was kind of quiet. The eba closed up in London on Thursday. Reopens in Paris on Monday.

volchitsa

Anteayer wrote: »

It has to be humiliating for the UK to have Donald Trunp basically annointing the candidate for Tory leadership and PM.

Brexit appears to be draining them of not only power but dignity too!

Unsurprising except that Trump is so blatant about it that it's likely to be counterproductive if anything.

But as for the principle of it, well, imagining that you won't lose power and influence by leaving the biggest trading bloc in the world and setting up as practically a startup operation would be delusional.

And TBF there were plenty of delusional people around it seems.

Beechwoodspark

So trump is calling for farage to be part of the negotiation team for Brexit now.

Surely this is a load of fantastical rubbish.

The withdrawal deal is done and dusted firstly.

And farage of course is not a member of govt.

if he is allowed take part in Brexit talks why not Labour and Lib Dems????

woohoo!!!

Trump being a troll. The dis-United Kingdom is such a mess that they've already sealed their own fate. The EU will be reluctant to reject an extension request but one will not be forthcoming. If the disUK chooses by indecision and infighting to go down a disastrous road, then ultimately that's their call. Paradise will have to be experienced to be believed.

It's sad really but at the same time I've nothing but contempt for many of its leaders who would happily throw us on a bonfire if they could.

The BBC have been very selective in the image they chose to add to the Trump story, it gives the impression that "baby" Farage is being comforted by "Daddy Trump". It's very clear what type of relationship the BBC believe there will be between the UK & US in the post-Brexit future.

jochenstacker

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Trump being a troll. The dis-United Kingdom is such a mess that they've already sealed their own fate. The EU will be reluctant to reject an extension request but one will not be forthcoming. If the disUK chooses by indecision and infighting to go down a disastrous road, then ultimately that's their call. Paradise will have to be experienced to be believed.

It's sad really but at the same time I've nothing but contempt for many of its leaders who would happily throw us on a bonfire if they could.

Brexit is phantastic for Trump and sowing more chaos is very much in his interest.
The more embroiled in in-fighting the UK are, the more they are vulnerable to a hostile trade deal with the US.
Bonuspoints if Trump manages to destabilise Europe and weaken their negotiating position.
I can imagine what TTTIP (Trumps Terriffic Trade and Investment Partnership) will look like, it certainly will be terriffic for Trump.
We have seen the same with NAFTA and now the trade war against China.
Mr Trump should be careful with his bullyboy tactics which are schoolyard at best. And it pains me inside that the rest of the world so easily succumbs to his tactics, which is basically "gimme your lunch money". That politicians, trade experts and diplomats with vast experience and intellects ten times greater than Trump's squirrel and kow-tow as soon as he threatens to give them a wedgie.
Part of me wishes that the rest of the world would realise that together they are far bigger than the US.
Should Trump get in in 2020, it is time to marginalise and isolate the US.
The US is a very big and strong bully, but if the world stands together, even they will have to back down and start tugging the forelock.
Time to put some manners on them.
But global trade is not about solidarity and fairness it seems, it's more like taking it up the arse because the other guy is stronger and a wet fart is better than a slap in the face.
I wished the world was better than that and just sometimes fairness was more important than profit. If you want to know what is going to happen, just think, what is the most weak-minded and spineless cop-out possible and that will happen.

dresden8

Enzokk wrote: »

The Brexit Party will lose support once you get to the issues other than Brexit and there is proper scrutiny of their policies and candidates. They will have more support than UKIP in 2015 but they will not be close to the top and could share the Brexit vote with the Tories.

I think the next Tory leader will pivot to a hard Brexit to try and win that vote back but some voters will feel sufficiently betrayed to have those 2 share the vote. The only other question is whether Labour replaces Corbyn, if they do they will have a landslide victory. If he is still leader then the same situation, Labour and the Libdems will share the remain vote.

If the UK is still in the EU come next GE is will be the only issue.

Capt'n Midnight

If China and India treat the UK's "special relationship" as a proxy for the US expect them go to medieval on future trade deals.



Anyone in the UK who expects Trump to help doesn't understand that the spat with China is a smoke screen for other stuff. He backed down from Huawei very quickly, so he is fickle to boot.

The trade war with China means 10% Aluminium and 25% Steel tariffs. And most of US steel imports come from Europe and Canada not China.
He's also trashing the NAFTA relationship with Canada and Mexico.

Also little countries are getting dumped on as below cost steel dumping is a great way to take out the competition.

Ask Brexiteers how they will trade on WTO terms given that Trump is trying to undermine the WTO ?

And Trump has just removed India's special trade status. He's running out of major economies to upset.




At this stage Trump is pushing so many buttons that affect the markets that I can't believe there isn't someone using that knowledge to make big money.

Farage has form on that too, conceding defeat on the referendum even though the private polls showed otherwise. And given his previous career it's not an oops.

Akrasia

dresden8 wrote: »

If the UK is still in the EU come next GE is will be the only issue.

Not if A50 was revoked following a 2nd referendum.

If they're still pussyfooting around with extensions and pretending to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, then yes it will dominate the agenda, but if the GE happens after a 2nd referendum, then it will have been resolved, and the main parties performance during the brexit debacle will be a deciding factor, but brexit itself won't be.

bilston

So the US Ambassador to the UK has today stated on the Andrew Marr show that the NHS would be part of the negotiations for a US-UK trade deal.

People in the UK who voted Brexit need to know this. They need to be aware of the consequences of Brexit.

The stars are aligning here. Trump in power in the US and Johnson potentially in government in the UK with Farage's influence growing while outside the EU.

An Claidheamh

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's in the Express now.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1134530/Brexit-news-BBC-UK-EU-Michel-Barnier-European-Union-Theresa-May-Conservative-Party

Isn't that absolutely disgraceful. That is fake news right there. They are lying about that clip.

The full clip clearly shows they mean the UK intends to use Ireland. That part is cut out.

When told they are lying they just ignore it!

To be honest, I'd have no problem even if the EU did intend to use Ireland to choke Britain.
Something Brexiters and (British) Irexiters - all 4 of them - seem to think should upset us?
They're defending our rights and our interests.


After all, Britain, as far as I'm concerned have declared economic war and are trying to undermine the customs union of 27 countries - all with the help of Russia.

All because, they still believe they alone have a right to an empire.

The Brexiters, like their imperialist forerunners have, quite obvious to me, deep seated resentment to Irish freedom and democracy.

As usual, Irish government and media policy is to ignore all this and shout down those who point it out. Britain easily takes advantage of this.

No harm if Steve Gammon begins to realise what life is like when you start these things.
You mess with the bull you get the horns.

CelticRambler

bilston wrote: »

So the US Ambassador to the UK has today stated on the Andrew Marr show that the NHS would be part of the negotiations for a US-UK trade deal.

People in the UK who voted Brexit need to know this. They need to be aware of the consequences of Brexit.

They do know it. They've been told again and again. But they firmly believe that the NHS is a sacred cow, and there's no chance any 'Merican cowboy would turn it into burgers. Why, that nice Mr. Farage even wrote such a promise on a bus.

Once again, there's a direct parallel between the Brexit Faithful and the hard-core Trumpists: they absolutely refuse to believe in cause-and-effect, even when the direct effect of their vote is to cause a level of hardship to themselves and their communities that is worse than anything they experienced before. In fact, the worse things get, the more it seems to reinforce their delusion.

dresden8

Akrasia wrote: »

Not if A50 was revoked following a 2nd referendum.

If they're still pussyfooting around with extensions and pretending to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, then yes it will dominate the agenda, but if the GE happens after a 2nd referendum, then it will have been resolved, and the main parties performance during the brexit debacle will be a deciding factor, but brexit itself won't be.

That is extremely hopeful.

ancapailldorcha

It looks like Sam Gyimah will be the sole Tory leadership candidate who is advocating a People's Vote:

https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1135094883444830208?s=21

serfboard

The Tory leadership contenders seem to believe that it’s a “Most Deluded Wins” competition ...
https://mobile.twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1135121802974420992

serfboard

Well now, this is hilarious.

British Ambassador to the UK, Woody Johnson, whose money comes from being in the Johnson & Johnson family, tells the Brits, straight out, that the whole of the British economy, including the NHS, will be there for the plundering in a future trade deal. Funny how that never got written on the side of a bus ...

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1135118137987223554

Leroy42

So they want sovereignty to make their own laws and other countries as well!

Even her saying that it's already in the WA. She seems to think that the EU will have to stick to everything in the WA that the UK agrees with whilst at the same time the UK can look to change anything they don't like.

All before 31 October?

Capt'n Midnight

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It looks like Sam Gyimah will be the sole Tory leadership candidate who is advocating a People's Vote:

twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1135094883444830208?s=21

In fairness he's going for a niche in a crowded market. Actually that's the only thing that separates him from many of the Me Too's in this campaign.

He's not really pro EU. And his votes on other issues shows him to be a Conservative who'd keep austerity going rather than taxing the rich or business.


https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24789/sam_gyimah/east_surrey/vote

Generally voted against more EU integration
28 votes for, 57 votes against, 8 absences, between 2011–2019

Generally voted for a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU
6 votes for, 3 votes against, 1 absence, between 2011–2016

Almost always voted against a right to remain for EU nationals already in living in the UK
0 votes for, 15 votes against, 3 absences, between 2016–2019

ancapailldorcha

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

In fairness he's going for a niche in a crowded market. Actually that's the only thing that separates him from many of the Me Too's in this campaign.

He's not really pro EU. And his votes on other issues shows him to be a Conservative who'd keep austerity going rather than taxing the rich or business.


https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24789/sam_gyimah/east_surrey/vote

I think he filibustered an LGBT rights bill as well.

He's been anti-Brexit for a while and he is a Tory. Just depends on how many skeletons you're willing to accept.

CrabRevolution

bilston wrote: »

So the US Ambassador to the UK has today stated on the Andrew Marr show that the NHS would be part of the negotiations for a US-UK trade deal.

People in the UK who voted Brexit need to know this. They need to be aware of the consequences of Brexit.

The stars are aligning here. Trump in power in the US and Johnson potentially in government in the UK with Farage's influence growing while outside the EU.

I'm not sure it'll make that much of a difference. For a large number of brexit supporters, brexit (or more specifically, ultra hard brexit) has become an almost religious belief. It is the goal in and by itself even if it delivers no benefits whatsoever, and all consequences are to be suffered no matter what the pain.

A mantra seems to have evolved of:
"Where brexit comes into conflict with my views, it's my views that must change, not brexit"

As a result of this we see the mental gymnastics and bizarre statements expressed by brexit supporters here and elsewhere when the downsides of brexit are pointed out to them:

"I've always felt more in common with Indian people than French or Polish people."
"I prefer global free trade, not cartel-like protectionist trade blocs"
"Chlorinating chicken is just common sense, as it's more hygienic"

I expect to see the same for the NHS, it'll be twisted as a positive, and they'll also claim that that's what they wanted all along and voted for in 2016; "I've always wanted a privitised NHS. The private sector will deliver better, cheaper healthcare".

An Ciarraioch

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I'm not sure it'll make that much of a difference. For a large number of brexit supporters, brexit (or more specifically, ultra hard brexit) has become an almost religious belief. It is the goal in and by itself even if it delivers no benefits whatsoever, and all consequences are to be suffered no matter what the pain.

A mantra seems to have evolved of:
"Where brexit comes into conflict with my views, it's my views that must change, not brexit"

As a result of this we see the mental gymnastics and bizarre statements expressed by brexit supporters here and elsewhere when the downsides of brexit are pointed out to them:

"I've always felt more in common with Indian people than French or Polish people."
"I prefer global free trade, not cartel-like protectionist trade blocs"
"Chlorinating chicken is just common sense, as it's more hygienic"

I expect to see the same for the NHS, it'll be twisted as a positive, and they'll also claim that that's what they wanted all along and voted for in 2016; "I've always wanted a privitised NHS. The private sector will deliver better, cheaper healthcare".

A Romanian student and campaigner, Alexandra Bulat, has acquired a considerable Twitter following in the UK for her spiky responses to Brexiteers:

http://twitter.com/alexandrabulat/status/1135146272233594881

http://twitter.com/alexandrabulat/status/1134858572255379456

lawred2

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Trump being a troll. The dis-United Kingdom is such a mess that they've already sealed their own fate. The EU will be reluctant to reject an extension request but one will not be forthcoming. If the disUK chooses by indecision and infighting to go down a disastrous road, then ultimately that's their call. Paradise will have to be experienced to be believed.

It's sad really but at the same time I've nothing but contempt for many of its leaders who would happily throw us on a bonfire if they could.

Being a troll or another stage in the orchestrated campaign to completely destabilise two of the world's super powers

otnomart

Sajid Javid criticised for calling Ireland 'tail that wags the dog' on Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/02/sajid-javid-criticised-for-calling-ireland-tail-that-wags-the-dog-on-brexit

Enzokk

The UK were told to use this time wisely. We are now wasting time with proposals that have no basis in reality and even those that face the problems they face head on with the deal they could possibly get, still has some variety of unicorns and cherry picking in them.

Sajid Javid was on Marr this morning and he was asked about he thinks it is possible to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, even after Marr gave him a quote from the Luxemburg PM where he dismissed the idea of any negotiations. The reason, because Katya Adler from the BBC is detecting a mood from the EU that they pushed the UK too far. Did they watch any of the behind the scenes documentaries and did it look like there was a sense of the EU punishing trying to push the UK?

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1135126294981533696

We have this reply from Helen McEntee says enough,

https://twitter.com/HMcEntee/status/1135199289213431808

She has also ruled this out now. I am upset with Brexitcast now, they have been pushing this idea that the EU will move at the last moment from the start. Their reporters have been reporting the view from Brussels but always have to add a little caveat at the end, like she has done now apparently. The mood is always open to change, the deal is done until it is not, the EU always moves at the last minute. They should take more care with their words as it is influencing politicians and they should report what they know will happen, not what they want to happen. You wonder how reporters can get such different signals from the EU as Tony Connelly as not reported about any softening from the EU.

As for another candidate, here is Matt Hancock throwing his plan into the mix. I will give him credit in that he is honest about the deal they can get. It falls apart on the Irish border though, where I suspect all of the plans will fall apart.

https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1135083869257064449

His idea for the border is in the image below mainly,



He also talks of the future trade deal that will be comprehensive with the EU where the UK will both leave the single market and the customs union, but will somehow be involved with the decisions on both of those. The reason, well because of the size and stature of the UK. It began so well for him and then it fell apart.

Anteayer

I can only conclude that they're utterly deluded.

Between their utterly sycophantic and embarrassing rolling over to have their bellies tickled by Donald Trump to basically being unable to grasp that the basic concepts of law, jurisdictional limitations to their power and international relations, they're doomed.

It looks like the UK is already completely impotent and being played by Trump and China. It can't say boo to either of them. They're terrified to step on Beijing toes around Huawei and they're equally terrified to stand up to Trump.

Seems the future for the UK is certainly not one of power broker

Professor Moriarty

Anteayer wrote: »

I can only conclude that they're utterly deluded.

Between their utterly sycophantic and embarrassing rolling over to have their bellies tickled by Donald Trump to basically being unable to grasp that the basic concepts of law, jurisdictional limitations to their power and international relations, they're doomed.

It looks like the UK is already completely impotent and being played by Trump and China. It can't say boo to either of them. They're terrified to step on Beijing toes around Huawei and they're equally terrified to stand up to Trump.

Seems the future for the UK is certainly not one of power broker

One thorny little fact being ignored by Javid, Bojo, Raab et al is that Congress will not pass any USA/UK trade deals unless the Good Friday Agreement is maintained. More likely they're unaware, as they are about most Irish issues.

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

Sajid Javid was on Marr this morning and he was asked about he thinks it is possible to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, even after Marr gave him a quote from the Luxemburg PM where he dismissed the idea of any negotiations. The reason, because Katya Adler from the BBC is detecting a mood from the EU that they pushed the UK too far. Did they watch any of the behind the scenes documentaries and did it look like there was a sense of the EU punishing trying to push the UK?

The EU is primarily a peace project.

The last time we had a hard border 3,000 people died.

This really isn't up for renegotiation.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

One thorny little fact being ignored by Javid, Bojo, Raab et al is that Congress will not pass any USA/UK trade deals unless the Good Friday Agreement is maintained. More likely they're unaware, as they are about most Irish issues.

UK politicians, particularly Tories, always go on about the 'special relationship' that the UK has with the USA. They appear to think it is a two-way one that benefits the UK more than it benefits the USA. Well, they got shafted with their computer industry in the 1960s. They got shafted with Concorde - the USA would not allow it to overfly USA airspace so killed its commercial attraction. The same happened with their aircraft industry - despite development of the Harrier, it was never a success that it should have been for the UK. Their nuclear industry was destroyed by the USA and have had to pay through the nose for Trident which they cannot use without permission.

However, who gets a guaranteed access to the White House every March 17th (or thereabouts) with every President since JFK? Who gets serious backing from both Republicans and Democrats on important issues wrt Ireland? Now that is a 'special relationship'.

Spanish Eyes

Regarding the arrogance and stupidity of certain sectors of the UK now, and you know who I'm talking about, I am beginning to think that a good kicking (wake up call) is the only way forward now.

I never thought I would say this, but I am now. Between Brexiteers of all hues, the Brexit Party, the Tories, and a Labour Party that is in stasis, something needs to happen.

They are a total embarrassment to their country.

The GFA will hold, US Congress will make sure of that, as will the EU.

The only positive I can see from all this, is that I am living through history.