Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

devnull wrote: »

Excellent article here
https://news.sky.com/story/no-amount-of-hope-or-optimism-will-ease-boris-johnsons-challenges-11770360



Really nails the problems that the vision of Boris has and all the issues in reality that no amount of cheerleading and bluster about the future and how if you believe in something enough it will happen will resolve. Hope and belikve in oneself, better known as being deluded, will save the UK.

It is good to see some people in the media calling him out for exactly what he is and telling it like it is, sadly time and time again when the Brexiteers come on TV they are not challanged anywhere near enough.

The Tories / ERG should be called out on why they are so violently opposed to the backstop. They are practically admitting that they seem themselves having a distant relationship with the EU and Ireland in the future and couldn't care less about the border.

Strazdas

upupup wrote: »

"Brexit:The uncivil war" shows how Dominic Cummings did it...highly recommended,I have a lot of respect for cummings after watching it.He fooled everybody with the leave campaign,I wonder can he fool them again...Probably
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U9PtoH5bsM

He conned the British public though, sold them a fantasy Brexit that was undeliverable.

He did a great job, mind you......even now they can't admit they were conned and are still demanding the thing they supposedly voted for.

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

He conned the British public though, sold them a fantasy Brexit that was undeliverable.

He did a great job, mind you......even now they can't admit they were conned and are still demanding the thing they supposedly voted for.

However the success of the campaign was due to careful targeting. The majority of people had already made up their mind one way or another. Cummings was able to use data and machine learning to identify fence sitters and hammer those in the lead up to the vote. This is something all campaigns try to do. He was just able to do it more accurately.

If he had really conned the British public in bulk then you would see a much larger swing the other way in the years and months after the referendum.

fly_agaric

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

I listened to the YouTube video linked earlier where Cummings was speaking.

It's very clever what he did (also I think highly objectionable from a moral standpoint), if the other parties haven't cottoned onto it, then they could easily lose again. I see this as a direct attack on democracy.

There badly needs to be rules on social media so people like him cannot manipulate and target the general public like that. The scariest thing about it is because it's personalised advertising, I see completely different adverts to everyone else. At least in traditional media, everyone can see what everyone else is doing.

Yes and you can publish a load of finely crafted half-truths (or even lies) to push the buttons of your micro-segment or whatever without any challenge.
I wonder is a bit like when mass-literacy & printing took off and people started to publish pamphlets (often full of nonsense) to push whatever agenda they wanted.

Hopefully people will also get increasingly wise to it and self innoculate to some extent.

I was laughing at the part at end where someone in audience asked a slido question about if he "felt guilt at what he'd done" and said no, that EU integration is driving anti-immigration and protectionist sentiments in the public (ala the 1930s) and things like the UK leaving the EU will "drain the poison"!

That seems a bit naive for such an apparently clever man.

Strazdas

Bit cynical wrote: »

However the success of the campaign was due to careful targeting. The majority of people had already made up their mind one way or another. Cummings was able to use data and machine learning to identify fence sitters and hammer those in the lead up to the vote. This is something all campaigns try to do. He was just able to do it more accurately.

If he had really conned the British public in bulk then you would see a much larger swing the other way in the years and months after the referendum.

He insisted that 'Leave' be as vague as possible with no detail. It ended up with toffs and the poor, communists and the far right all thinking they voted for the exact same thing

Kermit.de.frog

I note Varadkar and Coveney keep saying "a backstop" must be in the agreement instead of "the backstop"...

Room for compromise I reckon.

Spanish Eyes

Honestly the Remain side were abysmal all through.

Time for them to get their act together and speak as one. They really need to fight back now.

But Labour remainers seem to be terrified to say anything. That may change very soon though, there have been murmurs from some quarters there.

As for Corbyn, well that is the mystery of the century really, well to me anyway. LP seem to be just waiting for annihilation with him as Dear Leader. I don't get it, but maybe others do.

upupup

Strazdas wrote: »

He conned the British public though, sold them a fantasy Brexit that was undeliverable.

He did a great job, mind you......even now they can't admit they were conned and are still demanding the thing they supposedly voted for.

Brexit became undeliverable after Mays red lines.The only way to get a clean Brexit is to put the border in the sea.
Cummings knows this and I hope it's his plan.

Limpy

Since the ref result the tories were trying to hold on to power rather then deliver brexit. Cameron bottled it. May was giving all the time she needed to bottle it by the EU. Boris dont need to deliver brexit. He just needs to keeps the tories in power. He will be giving all the time he needs to bottle it to.

The EU would rather any Tory in Power then Corbyn. I believe if there was a blairite in charge of labour then the EU would of turned there backs on the tories and forced their hand long ago.

ziggyman17

The fat pig is an idiot. I hope the Irish goverment and Europe do not blink first.. That **** sums up the Engish to a tee..*****

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

He insisted that 'Leave' be as vague as possible with no detail. It ended up with toffs and the poor, communists and the far right all thinking they voted for the exact same thing

However, as I suggested before, if the bulk of them had not basically made their mind up already before the campaigns were under way, and if they had been conned as you suggest, one would expect a much larger reversal after the referendum when the supposed lies and distortions had been pointed out.

Sam Russell

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I note Varadkar and Coveney keep saying "a backstop" must be in the agreement instead of "the backstop"...

Room for compromise I reckon.

Well, either the backstop that is restricted to NI, or the one that covers the whole of the UK.

Simples.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, either the backstop that is restricted to NI, or the one that covers the whole of the UK.

Simples.

Does another kind exist or need to exist?

Lackadaisical

Just in case anyone was in any doubt about the pettiness and attention to mindless details of the incoming British cabinet:

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1154782412557168643?s=20

Also they seem to be imposing imperial weights and measures again.

I'd suspect we're going to see the end of any kind of sensible negotiations and just endless tabloid headline-seeking jingoism.

Sam Russell

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Just in case anyone was in any doubt about the pettiness and attention to mindless details of the incoming British cabinet:

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1154782412557168643?s=20

Also they seem to be imposing imperial weights and measures again.

JRM was and is an Imperialist. There were no metric measures in the nineteenth century.*

What a pompous ass.

Except the Broad gauge in Ireland (1.6 metres) and the Florin (1/10th of a GBP)

Bit cynical

Limpy wrote: »

Since the ref result the tories were trying to hold on to power rather then deliver brexit. Cameron bottled it. May was giving all the time she needed to bottle it by the EU. Boris dont need to deliver brexit. He just needs to keeps the tories in power. He will be giving all the time he needs to bottle it to.

The EU would rather any Tory in Power then Corbyn. I believe if there was a blairite in charge of labour then the EU would of turned there backs on the tories and forced their hand long ago.

I think the problem with the UK Remain side from Ireland's perspective is that they want to be seen as being correct as much as they want to reverse the Brexit process. Therefore a disastrous no deal brexit is a good outcome for them (at least the ones who are reasonably insulated from the economic affects) as much as stopping brexit. Hence their efforts through parliament to veto any sort of deal that might have otherwise had a chance.

At each stage the strategy is to up the ante. Either brexit is reversed or a no deal brexit happens and in the latter case they get to say "told you so". As time has gone on, unfortunately for Ireland, it is this latter scenario which appears to be unfolding.

Strazdas

Bit cynical wrote: »

However, as I suggested before, if the bulk of them had not basically made their mind up already before the campaigns were under way, and if they had been conned as you suggest, one would expect a much larger reversal after the referendum when the supposed lies and distortions had been pointed out.

But they voted for a vague, abstract notion which could mean just about anything ("leave the EU"). In essence they were conned by Vote Leave but lack the sophistication or intelligence to know they were conned (and British politicians and the right wing press are in total denial about what happened).

L1011

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Just in case anyone was in any doubt about the pettiness and attention to mindless details of the incoming British cabinet:

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1154782412557168643?s=20

Also they seem to be imposing imperial weights and measures again.

I'd suspect we're going to see the end of any kind of sensible negotiations and just endless tabloid headline-seeking jingoism.

No comma after and? I for one welcome our dildo-collecting revered former President of South Africa...

https://stancarey.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/oxford-commas-nelson-mandela-and-stephen-king/

He is basically requiring the use of a Victorian style guide with no concept that time has moved on; but of course he applies that to everything

reslfj

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I note Varadkar and Coveney keep saying "a backstop" must be in the agreement instead of "the backstop"...

Room for compromise I reckon.

There is absolutely no willingness among EU27 politicians and more importantly not at all among EU27 voters to reopen the WA. There is even less willingness to even discuss the backstop.
Moving back to the customs/regulatory border in the Irish sea, will likely be possible to agree with the EU27.

But other than that it's "No, No, No" from the EU27.

The EU27 can very easily afford a 'No Deal' Brexit, but the UK can't - not by a million miles.

It's not how much it cost us - it's just money. It's how fast the funeral for UK politics and its economy is scheduled.

Lars

A Shropshire Lad

Election before October 31st almost certainly. Not sure if Boris will pull the plug himself but even if he doesnt there will be a vote of no confidence , probably in September. No doubt the EU will grant an extension to have an election, there is a good chance the Torys will be given the boot and theres a Labour/SNP/ Lib Dem coalition. Customs union and all that back on the table, with a second ref.

reslfj

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Does another kind exist or need to exist?

Revoke A50 - I guess

trellheim

No doubt the EU will grant an extension to have an election

not if they believe it is just a cynical ploy, the backstop I would say might be the price extracted for such a concession

Joe_ Public

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Election before October 31st almost certainly. Not sure if Boris will pull the plug himself but even if he doesnt there will be a vote of no confidence , probably in September. No doubt the EU will grant an extension to have an election, there is a good chance the Torys will be given the boot and theres a Labour/SNP/ Lib Dem coalition. Customs union and all that back on the table, with a second ref.

Somebody posted a very interesting and detailed Johnson strategy a few pages back much of which i agreed with and which included the early election outlined above. The key for Johnson is securing that election on as favourable terms for his party as he can, however he manages it. One option is ditching the DUP, border in Irish Sea, then going to the country with that option as a platform. Whether that would split his party is a moot point, though, but as i see it, he is not a man flush with great options right now. If, with the help of the "big brain" Cummings he does have a master strategy, i for one will be very keen to see it.

Limpy

trellheim wrote: »

not if they believe it is just a cynical ploy, the backstop I would say might be the price extracted for such a concession

Well if the tories who don't want to be wiped out, could call an election before the 31th and promise brexit if voted in.

They would then get hamstrung getting brexit through the parlament but would remain in power. Aka May's premiership Mark 2.

Brexit fizzles out. Labour blairites, tories and the media would have enough time to discredit Corbyn. Then by the next election people will have little appetite to change. Status quo stays the same.

FrancieBrady

reslfj wrote: »

Revoke A50 - I guess

That's not a 'backstop' that's back to your senses.

Strazdas

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Election before October 31st almost certainly. Not sure if Boris will pull the plug himself but even if he doesnt there will be a vote of no confidence , probably in September. No doubt the EU will grant an extension to have an election, there is a good chance the Torys will be given the boot and theres a Labour/SNP/ Lib Dem coalition. Customs union and all that back on the table, with a second ref.

This is undoubtedly Johnson's plan. He's already in campaign mode and it looks like Cummings was brought in to be his election campaign manager.

Capt'n Midnight

Boris wants to recruit 20,000 police officers.

But spread over 3 years.

I'd expect about 20% of the current force to leave over the same time based on previous rates. (Figure 2 on the fifth page)


The relationship between those two numbers is left as an exercise for the reader.

Joe_ Public

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Boris wants to recruit 20,000 police officers.

But spread over 3 years.

I'd expect about 20% of the current force to leave over the same time based on previous rates. (Figure 2 on the fifth page)


The relationship between those two numbers is left as an exercise for the reader.

Also worth noting that if this pledge is honoured - and I truly mean IF - it will only barely bring the total number of police up to the level it was before 2010 when the cameron government started its cuts programme.

But who is seriously going to trust a word that comes out of that charlatan's mouth? Was very interesting the other day when Con MP Alberto Costa was asked whether he was confident Johnson would bring in the necessarily legislation to guarantee EU citizens rights in the UK and he could not bring himself to say yes. Worrying thing is, said with all that optimism and bluster, i can see a lot of voters being suckered by it.

Kermit.de.frog

Varadkar makes front page of the FT tomorrow



I imagine his remarks won't go unremarked on.

Joe_ Public

I dont blame Varadkar or anyone on this side, but it seems pretty clear the brexiteers are more than happy to provoke some tit for tat exchanges on this and play to their base. I'd be inclined just to stay out of it as much as possible from now on. Let this play out on the UK side which is the only place it can be settled. Dont give them any more election fodder than is necessary.