Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

It is pretty clear that the UK government is now a No Deal government and nothing, beyond given them everything, will be enough.

We can all call for Corbyn, revoke or whatever but clearly ERG and the like have taken hold and No Deal seems almost inevitable at this point.

IMO, even granting an extension for a GE would be pointless as the likely outcome is a Tory/BP pack.

There will be a border and our relationship with the UK will change. It's not what any of us want but there it is.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1154859919713218560

They should correct that to "to discuss killing the NHS".

L1011

Talks with a hostile congress are fundamentally pointless window dressing of course. And Trump will be in full on campaign mode (may even be a few properly contested Primaries a few months later) by November.

Frank Bullitt

It all seems a bit pointless when the Dems have said if the GFA is undermined, any talks will be shot down.

Tell me how

Given who is in the White House and who is in Downing St, I suspect talks have started. They may not be announced until after Oct 31 but I'd be very surprised if the bones of any deal were not being hammered out right now.

Leroy42's post above is as depressing a summation as I've seen largely because it is entirely possible if not probable at this point as outlined.

Maybe Parliament will block a No Deal (What then though if Johnson refuses to revoke or request extension?) May they'd go for a Vote of No Confidence as the clock ticks down. And what then? Lib Dems/Greens/SNP to appeal to logical Labour and Tory voters to try to pull it back from the brink. I would unfortunately fear the rend result would be as Leroy suggested.

Mr.Nice Guy

Elements of the UK media really ramping up the anti-Irish vitriol. Here's Richard Littlejohn of the Daily Mail.

https://twitter.com/sendboyle/status/1154709546834812929

Suspect we'll see a lot of this in the coming months.

lawred2

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Elements of the UK media really ramping up the anti-Irish vitriol. Here's Richard Littlejohn of the Daily Mail.

https://twitter.com/sendboyle/status/1154709546834812929

Suspect we'll see a lot of this in the coming months.

Surreal

It's truly an episode of black mirror

Strazdas

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Elements of the UK media really ramping up the anti-Irish vitriol. Here's Richard Littlejohn of the Daily Mail.

https://twitter.com/sendboyle/status/1154709546834812929

Suspect we'll see a lot of this in the coming months.

They're talking to themselves mainly. It's the British hard right addressing the Brexit disciples.

Being inward looking nationalists, they don't even care how this is going down outside the bubble, so it's not even aimed at Ireland.

Tell me how

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Elements of the UK media really ramping up the anti-Irish vitriol. Here's Richard Littlejohn of the Daily Mail.

Suspect we'll see a lot of this in the coming months.

Hope Ireland stick with the professionalism that has been in their communications to this point.
Just keep sticking to the facts which cannot be disputed. Do not react to pettiness or insulting barbs. Or, at least Varadkar, Coveney, McEntee, McGuinness and Richmond need to maintain the high line.

Of course, lets also try to put Andrew Maxwell on to as many political shows as possible to hit them with the snide put downs.

eire4

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1154859919713218560

They should correct that to "to discuss killing the NHS".

Yes I can see that scenario coming to pass very easily and in general England becoming like a mini USA with little in the way of consumer protections, low pay, lack of social protections etc.

jimmycrackcorm

PropJoe10 wrote: »

The sooner that Labour get rid of Corbyn and get someone with actual concrete policies and some credibility in, the better. He is half the problem in the Commons at the moment. Stands for absolutely nothing.

Corbyn is in charge for the same reason that BoJo got his gig. A small and vocal party membership choosing him.

He certainly is no Tony Blair which is exactly what Labour needs now to get back into power. Brexit absolutely suits him so be can re-nationalize the likes of railways without the EU complaining about monopolies. A double blow for the brits to get Brexit and the equaled of CIE on top.

hill16bhoy

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Corbyn is in charge for the same reason that BoJo got his gig. A small and vocal party membership choosing him.

He certainly is no Tony Blair which is exactly what Labour needs now to get back into power. Brexit absolutely suits him so be can re-nationalize the likes of railways without the EU complaining about monopolies. A double blow for the brits to get Brexit and the equaled of CIE on top.

The Labour party has over half a million members and is the biggest political party in Europe.

Corbyn got 313,000 votes in the 2016 leadership election, dwarfing Boris Johnson's 92,000.

In the 2001 and 2005 elections, Blair pulled in 10.7 million and 9.5 million votes respectively, compared to the aalmost 12.9 million votes Corbyn's Labour got in 2017.

Blairism will get Labour nowhere these days and even in its heyday, its popularity was vastly overstated.

The concept of renationalising the railways is highly popular in Britain as franchise after franchise has been a mess. Britain has the most expensive trains in Europe.

reslfj

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

... Brexit absolutely suits him so be can re-nationalize the likes of railways without the EU complaining about monopolies. ...

The EU doesn't prevent re-nationalising. Rail is state owned in very many EU member states. Sweden, Denmark, Germany, France ....

But if e.g. only half the rail-lines are nationalised they must continue to respect fair competition rules against the other non-nationalised half.

Lars

BonnieSituation

devnull wrote: »

Excellent article here
https://news.sky.com/story/no-amount-of-hope-or-optimism-will-ease-boris-johnsons-challenges-11770360



Really nails the problems that the vision of Boris has and all the issues in reality that no amount of cheerleading and bluster about the future and how if you believe in something enough it will happen will resolve. Hope and belikve in oneself, better known as being deluded, will save the UK.

It is good to see some people in the media calling him out for exactly what he is and telling it like it is, sadly time and time again when the Brexiteers come on TV they are not challanged anywhere near enough.

What absolutely drives me spare with this talk of no deal is the idea that they seem to forget, and let's be realistic, this generation of post-Major Tories, never acknowledged, that there was a CIVIL WAR on their territory for over 3 decades in which 3000 people died.

It's beyond my comprehension that those so in love with the Union just pick and choose what history they need for any given moment. Well it's not beyond my comprehension that they do it, it's beyond my comprehension that they NEED to do it.

A ministry for the Union that Boris now heads sounds like the sting of a dying wasp.

How can any moderate unionist in Ulster or in Scotland look at the shambles in London and think "yeah, this is the life for me".

Varadkar's comments earlier on Friday attracted the sort of reaction that one would expect. But it's the sort of comment that needs to be said out loud. We have skin in this game on a lot of levels and we need to keep the pressure on.

Precious Union indeed.

declanflynn

Canada are not going to roll over the eu trade deal for the uk, the us won't do a trade deal if the GFA is undermined by no deal the UK are in a corner but are acting like the EU are in a corner its amusing, we should try not to worry and think of dads army when reading or watching anything about brexit

declanflynn

Canada are not going to roll over the eu trade deal for the uk, the us won't do a trade deal if the GFA is undermined by no deal the UK are in a corner but are acting like the EU are in a corner its amusing, we should try not to worry and think of dads army when reading or watching anything about brexit

Enzokk

Priti Patel hasn't been in the job a week and she is already involved in a controversy. Rules apparently just doesn't apply to her.

Priti Patel accused of breaching ministerial code for second time

The new home secretary, Priti Patel, is facing allegations of breaching the ministerial code for the second time in her parliamentary career for accepting a lucrative position with a global communications firm before receiving the all-clear from an anti-corruption watchdog.

Patel has been working for Viasat, a California-based company with a UK base in Farnborough, for the past three months as a strategic adviser on a salary of £5,000 a month for five hours’ work – or £1,000 an hour.

The ministerial code states former ministers must seek guidance from the advisory committee on business appointments (Acoba) on taking up any business appointments within two years of leaving the role – and must not take up the position until advice has been received.

What she has done isn't that big of a deal and it was cleared, but it is the fact that she only let them know a month after she started. Add this now to her job as Home Secretary, who knows what she will be up to.

Then a piece by Tony Connelly on Johnson. An interesting read.

Guessing Johnson's true intentions, and the rising risk of No Deal

I will just highlight the last paragraph of the piece as most of it is just rehashing the past weeks events with who is in place for Johnson.

Senior EU figures are therefore bracing themselves for a hard September and October. "The problem is," says one EU diplomat, "a lot of Johnson’s entourage don’t really grasp what No Deal really means, what it will mean to negotiate with the EU afterwards. A lot of these people have founded their views on a belief system - it’s not an exact science. When there’s a reality check they will simply blame Remainers in the civil service and they will blame Europe. We’re really now in risky waters."

So we are in for a interesting September and October, but only after the UK has wasted time. May really is the pits, no plan on Brexit and then wasting time when she finally left her job.

Water John

No doubt the plan is, as Peregrinus said some pages ago. Have meetings and pretend talks with a few European PMs, maybe little if any with EU. Come back and go full for No Deal. Parliament stops that, Johnson goes to the country, Lb will support an election.
No a massive or sly plan. It's betting on a minority of the British people supporting a Leave campaign. Enough to elect a majority in the HOC, given the FPTP system.

Laois_Man

Leroy42 wrote: »

IMO, even granting an extension for a GE would be pointless as the likely outcome is a Tory/BP pack.

That's a bit of a leap.
the (slight) uplift the Tory's are getting in the latest polls taken in the last few days is at the expense of the Brexit Party so combined, they're no better off and they still don't add up to a majority, even if you add in UKIP

A labour, Lib Dems and Green coalition does however!

The very existence of the Brexit Party should actually result in the other side winning more seats!

Joe_ Public

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Elements of the UK media really ramping up the anti-Irish vitriol. Here's Richard Littlejohn of the Daily Mail.

https://twitter.com/sendboyle/status/1154709546834812929

Suspect we'll see a lot of this in the coming months.

Its not the likes of a professional troll like Littlejohn i'd be worried about. Its guys like this who are supposed to be the sensible, thoughtful ones:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1154795434981961729

A couple of days ago i was listening to Mareid McGuinness being interviewed by Adam Boulton on Sky and after it was finished, Boulton turned to his next guest and said it was "like talking to a wall." If even the intelligent ones can't get it, then it seems next to pointless to me to try continue explaining it. They're incapable of grasping it.

amacca

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its not the likes of a professional troll like Littlejohn i'd be worried about. Its guys like this who are supposed to be the sensible, thoughtful ones:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1154795434981961729

A couple of days ago i was listening to Mareid McGuinness being interviewed by Adam Boulton on Sky and after it was finished, Boulton turned to his next guest and said it was "like talking to a wall." If even the intelligent ones can't get it, then it seems next to pointless to me to try continue explaining it. They're incapable of grasping it.

I caught that too...rarely see that interviewer act that way even when dealing with difficult guests

I found it surprising that they can have on charlatans and outright liars etc etc and treat them with impartiality but that was the response to mairead...however she did seem irritated during the interview and a little bit like a headmistress handing out a suspension to a misbehaving student so perhaps that rubbed Adam up the wrong way .... might be good for EU side to strike a more conciliatory tone (while not giving an inch) during those interviews

Flex

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its not the likes of a professional troll like Littlejohn i'd be worried about. Its guys like this who are supposed to be the sensible, thoughtful ones:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1154795434981961729

A couple of days ago i was listening to Mareid McGuinness being interviewed by Adam Boulton on Sky and after it was finished, Boulton turned to his next guest and said it was "like talking to a wall." If even the intelligent ones can't get it, then it seems next to pointless to me to try continue explaining it. They're incapable of grasping it.

I don’t really have much time for Boulton. Recall him recently interviewing someone in the EU and pressing the backstop needing to be removed and as the EU official replied saying it’s needed to maintain an open and frictionless border which has been critical to establishing and maintaining the GFA he just laughed into his chest shaking his head and dismissed it as if she was a child making a completely nonsensical observation and ridiculing her to the next guest he had on.

Regards Johnson, I suspect that the rhetoric From the UK and their media will be that
*there actually are alternative arrangements available,
*they’ll keep presenting these and so on,
*the EU will see they are not workable or completely fail at keeping the border frictionless,
*This will be presented as “see! We came up with alternative arrangements but the EU won’t accept them because they want to trap us! Well we’ll show them!”
*No deal becomes something new; a way of standing up to the bullies and destroying the secret conspiracy to trap the UK, and becomes politically impossible to reject for a lot of MPs

After no deal they won’t put up a border (because they don’t give a rats ass about Northern Ireland anyway), we will eventually have to and this will then be their excuse to renege on the GFA. Absolutely zero integrity from the Brexiteers on this and that won’t change for as long as they are dependent on the DUP votes

Also fully expect that a lot of the vitriol directed towards ‘Brussels’ and ‘the EU’ will begin being explicitly directed at ‘Dublin’ and ‘the Irish’ as we near October

Leroy42

They are genuinely worried. That is where all the bluff and bluster is coming from.

Johnson hasn't got a plan, well not one that can possibly work, so he is left to the basest form of argument. Bullying, shouting and an appeal to the heart.

He knows he has nothing of detail or substance to offer so instead he demands pride, passion. It's like the worst team coaches. No actual ideas just an appeal to 'playing for the Jersey'.

And the media are worried too. Worried about what is happening and worried about complete inability to make the real issues the news. People like Boulton, despite his best efforts, are p1ssing against the wind and have failed to hold the likes of Johnson, IDS, JRM to account despite numerous interviews.

Far easier to blame the EU, the Irish, TM or whatever rather than face the reality.

Stop moaning ffs

We all new the blame the Irish was coming. And I wonder if Leo did or didn’t know.
His comments yesterday published in today’s FT have thrown a grenade into fireworks factory. It’s upset apparently the right people even if he was only stating the obvious.

But I wonder at the timing though and who it was aimed at if any group?

BonnieSituation

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

We all new the blame the Irish was coming. And I wonder if Leo did or didn’t know.
His comments yesterday published in today’s FT have thrown a grenade into fireworks factory. It’s upset apparently the right people even if he was only stating the obvious.

But I wonder at the timing though and who it was aimed at if any group?

Nothing about Varadkar's comments was coincidental.

I read them in the Irish Times this morning. Nothing at all inflammatory in them, and in fact he tried to dampen any expectation that we are moving to a new constitutional front on the North.

The only thing new about it was the fact that he said it out loud. But it's no different to the comments made by Peter Robinson at the very same summer school (it was at McGill? I stand to be corrected) last year.

Of course Jeffrey Donaldson was out complaining yada yada.

I'm all for confrontational approaches now with the dup and unionism. Because the softly softly approach has long outlived its usefulness and is ignorant of Northern Nationalists wish for a UI.

PeadarCo

Flex wrote:

After no deal they won’t put up a border (because they don’t give a rats ass about Northern Ireland anyway), we will eventually have to and this will then be their excuse to renege on the GFA. Absolutely zero integrity from the Brexiteers on this and that won’t change for as long as they are dependent on the DUP votes

The thing is if they don't put up a border their side and put checks between NI and the rest of the UK, why would anyone do a trade deal with them?

They will be giving the EU via Ireland a deal that includes no trarrifs or cheques on any goods into the UK. Ireland would like a deal to get rid of the border controls on the Irish side. However why would anyone bother. The first thing a country will ask the UK will be for no trarrifs or controls to be applied for goods and services from their own countries. It doesn't sound as if its been thought through.

Stop moaning ffs

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Nothing about Varadkar's comments was coincidental.

I read them in the Irish Times this morning. Nothing at all inflammatory on them, and in fact he tried to dampen any expectation that we are moving to a new constitutional front on the North.

The only thing new about it was the fact that he said it out loud. But it's no different to the comments made by Peter Robinson at the very same summer school (it was at McGill? I stand to be corrected) last year.

Of course Jeffrey Donaldson was out complain yada yada.

I'm all for confrontational approaches now with the dup and unionism. Because the softly softly approach has long outlived its usefulness and is ignorant of Northern Nationalists wish for a UI.

Don’t know if I agree. Getting into a shouting match with them at this late stage wouldn’t achieve anything positive I don’t think.

I listened to the IT podcast this morning with the whole interview with Leo and he’s talking firm but not aggressive. And it’s already being misconstrued wildly over there.

Better not to drop to their level and just quietly reply as if they’re the lunatic on the ledge threatening to jump that they are

Stop moaning ffs

PeadarCo wrote: »

The thing is if they don't put up a border their side and put checks between NI and the rest of the UK, why would anyone do a trade deal with them?

They will be giving the EU via Ireland a deal that includes no trarrifs or cheques on any goods into the UK. Ireland would like a deal to get rid of the border controls on the Irish side. However why would anyone bother. The first thing a country will ask the UK will be for no trarrifs or controls to be applied for goods and services from their own countries. It doesn't sound as if its been thought through.

Because a border on their side would see the DUP scream they’re bein cutt off from the uk.

The border in the sea is going to happen. Almost a certainty. Johnson will throw the election and no longer need the DUP and they’ll lose their minds but little they can do.

BonnieSituation

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Don’t know if I agree. Getting into a shouting match with them at this late stage wouldn’t achieve anything positive I don’t think.

I listened to the IT podcast this morning with the whole interview with Leo and he’s talking firm but not aggressive. And it’s already being misconstrued wildly over there.

Better not to drop to their level and just quietly reply as if they’re the lunatic on the ledge threatening to jump that they are

But he did quietly reply and it still has them all aflutter.

I'm in no way suggesting we should abandon our first class diplomacy of the last 5 years but we should also not hide what we think is right, especially when it concerns citizens of ours that are being sidelined by this English Nationalist omnishambles.

So if they don't like the reality or being told about it, then that's their problem. Not ours.

J Mysterio

It seems clear that Varadkar and Coveney have decided they have had enough, and that they are going to up the rhetoric.

Varadkar stating outright that that NDB will break the UK.

"I do think that more and more people, certainly in the event of a no deal, more people in Northern Ireland will come to question the union...

"Ironically one of the things that could really underminethe union - the United Kingdom union - is a hard Brexit, both for Northern Ireland and for Scotland. But that is a problem that they are going to have to face," he said.
Source

Coveney saying BJ's comments unhelpful and that they set UK on a collision course with Ireland/EU.

"The statements of the British Prime Minister yesterday in the House of Commons were very unhelpful to this process," Mr Coveney said.

"He seems to have made a deliberate decision to set Britain on a collision course with the European Union and with Ireland in relation to the Brexit negotiations, and I think only he can answer the question as to why he is doing that."
Source

While these discussion points are not new, I think there is a change in tone to be observed, and a hardening of sentiment.

Two schools of thought I guess: a) keep schtum and allow their rope to run out or b) speak your mind and call out the bull****.

Well, we have been quite diplomatic for 3 years now, making the salient points, but reasonably gently. There has obviously been some calculation on this in the Irish cabinet... Perhaps they want to make a splash on this in UK media to better highlight the issue in UK national discourse? Boris obviously wants to swat the issue away and undermine it for UK public.

Seems as though inflammatory speech and hard sentiment has done well on both sides of the Atlantic (UK/US). Political discourse seems to be degenerating globally in recent years into a sort of battle royale. Maybe the Irish government have decided to enter the game? I dont think I would neccesarily reccomend or encourage this, but I'm not shocked either and - tbh - there is a small part of me that enjoys seeing it given back, even if I regret the lowering of international diplomacy and multilateralism.