Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

reslfj

McGiver wrote: »

EU would hesitantly offer it. It was one of possible solutions.

The main issue here is - UK haven't asked for it!

First the EU is not offering a Swiss style 100+ deals agreement.

The UK needs the CU for its JIT and other industrial production which is (partly) exported. 'Region of origin' must include all of the EU for FTAs to work for UK export of e.g. cars (where often as little as 25% is UK added value)

The claim, that the UK can agree better FTAs than the EU have, is simply not true.
Size is almost all that matters in negotiating trade deals.

Lars

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It’s the mail so take it as it is but it seems Johnson can go ahead with no deal legally.

No law to stop Brexit! Attorney General 'believes Boris Johnson can legally take Britain out of EU by October 31 even if he loses no confidence vote and government collapses'

https://trib.al/O7utohh

That won't suit Johnson. It means he has to take responsibility.

Spanish Eyes

I think Johnson is banking on taking it down to the wire in the gamble that the EU will blink at the last minute, and give in to all their demands for a changed WA and issues related to the backstop.

Or maybe he will just call a snap election before exit day, and win a majority for the Tories (if Labour do not get their act together).

Cummings is a dangerous man. I'd be keeping an eye on him and his propaganda/utterances, or those he puts in other people's mouths.

Stop moaning ffs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That won't suit Johnson. It means he has to take responsibility.

I don’t see him doing it either. He’s waiting on Parliament to block him so when the election happens either via no confidence vote or otherwise, ‘they won’t let me deliver brexit’ will be his rallying cry.

I reckon anyways. Could well be wrong.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He can't compromise because the ERG won't let him. The EU can't compromise because what's the point of the EU if they do. Maybe it's time to accept that the lunatics have taken over the asylum and just stop trying to accommodate them.

I reckon the only thing that can stop No Deal is a general election. Johnson is saying he wants a 'new deal' with no backstop whatsoever and won't even talk to the EU unless they offer this to him.

Stop moaning ffs

Is it conspiracy theory stuff to suggest he’s drivin for no deal under the behest of those that stand to make a killing from the outcome, the disaster capitalists and funds?

Kermit.de.frog

Heard the phrase "undemocratic backstop" over and over this morning.

Give people in the north a referendum then it will be democratic.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Heard the phrase "undemocratic backstop" over and over this morning.

Give people in the north a referendum then it will be democratic.

That smacks of Cummings. Johnson never used the phrase before Wednesday.

murphaph

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Is it conspiracy theory stuff to suggest he’s drivin for no deal under the behest of those that stand to make a killing from the outcome, the disaster capitalists and funds?

The whole thing was funded by dark money so certainly not beyond the realms of possiblity.

Stop moaning ffs

this is really poorly considered from FF. the cross party consensus on brexit has been so important to us in this. FF definitely shouldn’t be giving ammo to the Brits but this is exactly that.

https://twitter.com/fiannafailparty/status/1155447467791532032?s=21

Stop moaning ffs

murphaph wrote: »

The whole thing was funded by dark money so certainly not beyond the realms of possiblity.

Thinking specifically of Farages insider dealings with that fund that made millions the night of the brexit referendum result

It’s all very murky and dark forces at play.

An Claidheamh

It's what they do in Britain.

It's called meowing.

Someone comes up with some self-indulgent phrase that the multitude can repeat and it covers up and sets a narrative to the situation.
It worked for their selective memories of their vicious empire.

Before Brexit, I never heard the British refer to the UK as a union*.

*Rather wish Irish people would stop referring to it as a "union" as Ireland never voted to join.
It's as if they're trying to imply it's a rival of the European Union, which is laughable, but par for the course.



On another note, I suspect those unhappy with Varadkar's handling re: the Examiner poll notice the lack of respect FG and Varadkar command among UK politicians by their acceptance of their insults and waiting on their media hand and foot.

Would not have happened with Haughey back in the day, he got results.


On another note, all this nonsense with Boris and his cabinet which includes a right wing failed satrap - Patel, and insulting the EU by putting Raab back in, supports my view that they should not have been given an extension.
They'd change their tune when their currency plummets.

An Claidheamh

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

this is really poorly considered from FF. the cross party consensus on brexit has been so important to us in this. FF definitely shouldn’t be giving ammo to the Brits but this is exactly that.

https://twitter.com/fiannafailparty/status/1155447467791532032?s=21

She's dim, a non-entity.

Jamie2k9

Less than half of people satisfied with Taoiseach's Brexit strategy, poll suggests

43% Satisfied
27% Not Satisfied
22% No Opinion
8% Don't Know

https://www.thejournal.ie/less-than-half-of-people-satisfied-with-taoiseachs-brexit-strategy-4743518-Jul2019/

Personally I would have taught a much higher % of people would be happy with Goverment stance. As the clock ticks I suspect satisfaction rates will as well.

A Dub in Glasgo

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Before Brexit, I never heard the British refer to the UK as a union*.

*Rather wish Irish people would stop referring to it as a "union" as Ireland never voted to join.
It's as if they're trying to imply it's a rival of the European Union, which is laughable, but par for the course.

It is definitely linked to the Scottish independence referendum... 'our precious union'... 'the single market of the UK' etc. It started in 2014 and quickly morphed into the Brexit terminolgy as if there was some sort of equivalence between the structures of the EU and UK. They are totally and utterly different.

Stop moaning ffs

So the majority of people replies are satisfied. Cool.

The journal though. Hardly scientific polling really

Jamie2k9

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So the majority of people replies are satisfied. Cool.

The journal though. Hardly scientific polling really

Not a Journal Poll. Kantar/Sunday Independent conducted it. Lot of unhappy farmers by S America deal to according to it.

CrabRevolution

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/less-than-half-of-people-satisfied-with-taoiseachs-brexit-strategy-4743518-Jul2019/

Personally I would have taught a much higher % of people would be happy with Goverment stance. As the clock ticks I suspect satisfaction rates will as well.

Well the same poll says only 27% of people are unhappy with his approach with the rest either indifferent or saying they don't know. Even then I'd imagine that the 27% consists largely of the cohort of people who'd claim the sky is green just because Varadkar said it was blue.

Strazdas

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Well the same poll says only 27% of people are unhappy with his approach with the rest either indifferent or saying they don't know. Even then I'd imagine that the 27% consists largely of the cohort of people who'd claim the sky is green just because Varadkar said it was blue.

I doubt the 27% are concerned about the backstop.....it's probably some other issue

Jamie2k9

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Well the same poll says only 27% of people are unhappy with his approach with the rest either indifferent or saying they don't know. Even then I'd imagine that the 27% consists largely of the cohort of people who'd claim the sky is green just because Varadkar said it was blue.

I get that but I think FG will be disappointed with such a result. Yes only one poll but I taught 65-75 would be happy. Exclude non FG votes and how much of that 43% would be left.

FF will be the big winners long term regardless of a deal/no deal.

Stop moaning ffs

I’d say the hospital housing broadband and Maria Bailey fiascos absolutely affected that result.

For my own money brexit is the only thing they’re doing well. And they’re handling it really well.

The political and public hit they’ll take is when they do announce the plans to deal with the border even if its checks away from.

That might be the moment you see FF put the knife in.

Leroy42

Ask those that are unhappy what they think should be done differently.

Easy to say your unhappy, harder to come up with something better.

The one thing that seems to have been allowed be discussed as it is is reality is that there is no alternative to the backstop. It is either that or a border.

The discussion has been allowed be complicated with nonsense about alternative arrangements, trusted trader, bar codes and the likes. And it all sounds reasonable enough to the lay person. But none of it deals with the dichotomy that the UK have created.

Closed borders but no border in NI. Brexit is all about closing borders yet they don't want to the one land border with the EU they actually have.

Stop moaning ffs

Leroy42 wrote: »

Ask those that are unhappy what they think should be done differently.

Easy to say your unhappy, harder to come up with something better.

The one thing that seems to have been allowed be discussed as it is is reality is that there is no alternative to the backstop. It is either that or a border.

The discussion has been allowed be complicated with nonsense about alternative arrangements, trusted trader, bar codes and the likes. And it all sounds reasonable enough to the lay person. But none of it deals with the dichotomy that the UK have created.

Closed borders but no border in NI. Brexit is all about closing borders yet they don't want to the one land border with the EU they actually have.

The ‘taking back control of our borders’ mantra did mysteriously disappear as soon as the backstop became apparent.

mickoneill31

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/less-than-half-of-people-satisfied-with-taoiseachs-brexit-strategy-4743518-Jul2019/

Personally I would have taught a much higher % of people would be happy with Goverment stance. As the clock ticks I suspect satisfaction rates will as well.

So only 27% dissatisfied. Sounds pretty good.

Stop moaning ffs

I’m surprised by it in another way. But once you see them ramp up the blame the Irish it’ll be perceived as them bullying us or attempting to. Government here isn’t going to back down so hold that poll then and you’ll see a very different result I’d say.

I don’t know how engaged the general public are in brexit anyways though to be honest.

Bigus

I think Boris is energised and “thick” enough to go through with a no deal brexit, particularly after seeing the banging on the table at the cabinet meeting .

As a wise professor once said to me “ there’s nothing more dangerous than a stupid man” and this fits Boris.

Lackadaisical

Boris might, but Westminster will take a LOT of convincing to allow him to exit without a deal. There isn't a majority for it and MPs probably view this with a lot more scepticism than the media.

I think we're in for one hell of a political show over the months ahead.

Leroy42

On C4, I think it was, the point was made that Johnson is playing a massive game of bluff. He is daring the parliament to stop no deal. He knows the EU won't accept changes, he has ensured that by creating even more red lines than TM had with his demand that the backstop be removed entirely.

So he knows the EU cannot do that. But he knows that No deal is a disaster. How can he possibly deliver the domestic promises, 20k police, spending on infrastructure, money for NHS, cannot be met on No deal as everything will be required to stop the disaster from spreading so he needs Parliament to stop it so that he can claim he was stopped.

He then runs to the country on the basis that the parliament are the baddies.

Johnson does not want no deal, IMO. But he needs everyone to think he does. To double bluff the likes of Hammond should say hey will not vote to stop him. See just how far he is willing to take it.

Stop moaning ffs

Leroy42 wrote: »

On C4, I think it was, the point was made that Johnson is playing a massive game of bluff. He is daring the parliament to stop no deal. He knows the EU won't accept changes, he has ensured that by creating even more red lines than TM had with his demand that the backstop be removed entirely.

So he knows the EU cannot do that. But he knows that No deal is a disaster. How can he possibly deliver the domestic promises, 20k police, spending on infrastructure, money for NHS, cannot be met on No deal as everything will be required to stop the disaster from spreading so he needs Parliament to stop it so that he can claim he was stopped.

He then runs to the country on the basis that the parliament are the baddies.

Johnson does not want no deal, IMO. But he needs everyone to think he does. To double bluff the likes of Hammond should say hey will not vote to stop him. See just how far he is willing to take it.

That seems to be his game. It could so easily blow up in his face.

Mancomb Seepgood

In the Sunday Times today Tim Shipman claims that Steve Baker and Ian Duncan-Smith have been sounded out by EU embassies about an exit clause or time limit and that a 5-10 year time limit could be on offer.

No source is given so it's likely to be spin that the EU side is cracking.