Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BobbyBobberson

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

In the Sunday Times today Tim Shipman claims that Steve Baker and Ian Duncan-Smith have been sounded out by EU embassies about an exit clause or time limit and that a 5-10 year time limit could be on offer.

No source is given so it's likely to be spin that the EU side is cracking.

Any other names and you would be tempted to half believe it but them two lads. Nah.

Leroy42

1st off Johnson has already said he won't accept any time limit.

2nd off, why would the EU be talking to IDS or Steve Baker?

I can certainly see some semblance of a time limit being included in the PD. But not in the terms that the UK want, but more that Johnson can sell.

Making the 'unless and until' more detailed. After 5 years the EU will hold a meeting, including the UK, to discuss the 'alternatives. If FTA is agreed etc. But it won't actually change anything that isn't there, just new wording

careless sherpa

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

In the Sunday Times today Tim Shipman claims that Steve Baker and Ian Duncan-Smith have been sounded out by EU embassies about an exit clause or time limit and that a 5-10 year time limit could be on offer.

No source is given so it's likely to be spin that the EU side is cracking.

Exit clause on the backstop? Can't see an Irish government agreeing to that. Political suicide and that is not something any politican will do willingly

cml387

Leroy42 wrote: »

1st off Johnson has already said he won't accept any time limit.

2nd off, why would the EU be talking to IDS or Steve Baker?

I can certainly see some semblance of a time limit being included in the PD. But not in the terms that the UK want, but more that Johnson can sell.

Making the 'unless and until' more detailed. After 5 years the EU will hold a meeting, including the UK, to discuss the 'alternatives. If FTA is agreed etc. But it won't actually change anything that isn't there, just new wording

The ERG have the wind in their sails now, and as far as they are concerned all of the WA is dead. Not just the backstop. These are the forces that Johnson has unleashed and it's going to be very hard for him to go back on his word.

Bit cynical

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Boris might, but Westminster will take a LOT of convincing to allow him to exit without a deal.

However would it not have been easier for Westminster to have voted for the deal when it was presented to them earlier in the year?

fash

Strazdas wrote: »

Given that you cannot vote for it, it makes no sense.

However I sense that Johnson's use of the phrase is no accident. It may well have come from Cummings who has instructed Johnson to keep repeating it.

I wonder is it preparation for saying "let the people of NI vote on a backstop or "alternative arrangements""?

cml387

One thing to remember is that at the summit of the Labour leadership there is the hope that a no deal Brexit occurs, it's a catastrophe and that the instability leads to a crisis election with Corbyn riding to the rescue.

That has always been the aim of the Corbynites. Their best hope is that Oct 31st comes and goes with the vote of confidence failing to get through and Johnson trapped in the eventuality he least wants.

fash

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

So how come Britain can't get the same bilateral deals with the EU that Switzerland has? Excuse the ignorance

Although the EU dislikes the precise Switzerland solution based on the complexity of loads of agreements which are constantly being tinkered with, the real reason why the Switzerland solution is not acceptable is the UK red lines:

Specifically the UK's refusal to accept freedom of movement, refusal of ongoing financial support of the single market and refusal to submit to ECJ jurisdiction.
I strongly suspect that the UK is big enough and important enough that (subject to having a backstop), the EU would love to give the UK such a deal.

fash

Bigus wrote: »

I think Boris is energised and “thick” enough to go through with a no deal brexit, particularly after seeing the banging on the table at the cabinet meeting .

As a wise professor once said to me “ there’s nothing more dangerous than a stupid man” and this fits Boris.

I don't think Boris is stupid - lazy but not stupid. I believe his plan remains:

“I am increasingly admiring of Donald Trump. I have become more and more convinced that there is method in his madness...Imagine Trump doing Brexit, He’d go in bloody hard … There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos. Everyone would think he’d gone mad. But actually you might get somewhere. It’s a very, very good thought"

i.e. this is all part of his bluff.


Although there was an interesting theory that he has a particular pivot in mind:
https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1155159525411971072

Stop moaning ffs

As someone pointed out in the replies, the Fact Cummings is involved suggests there definitely is a plan. But it doesn’t mean it’ll be a good one. Either for Johnson and brexit on on hand or the country and future relationship with the Eu on the other.

Johnson was elected by the few for the few. And that second few seems to be the ones that will benefit enormously from the fallout while absolutely everyone else suffers post brexit. And their puppet Johnson will be at the despatch box to bluff and blame it all on the Eu Ireland and anything else possible in order to distract and deflect blame from where it truly belongs.

He’ll be allowed bullsh t his way through it too.

Bigus

fash wrote: »

I don't think Boris is stupid - lazy but not stupid. I believe his plan remains:

“I am increasingly admiring of Donald Trump. I have become more and more convinced that there is method in his madness...Imagine Trump doing Brexit, He’d go in bloody hard … There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos. Everyone would think he’d gone mad. But actually you might get somewhere. It’s a very, very good thought"

i.e. this is all part of his bluff.


Although there was an interesting theory that he has a particular pivot in mind:
https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1155159525411971072

Fair enough but as somebody in that twitter thread of Boris

“
There is no plan. Johnson got what he wanted and genuinely believes the EU will blink. He'll make a mess and blame someone else “

And another says his plan is “to wing it”

And I’m saying he dangerous and stupid enough to chance his arm with no plan , and this is the danger.

Strazdas

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

As someone pointed out in the replies, the Fact Cummings is involved suggests there definitely is a plan. But it doesn’t mean it’ll be a good one. Either for Johnson and brexit on on hand or the country and future relationship with the Eu on the other.

Johnson was elected by the few for the few. And that second few seems to be the ones that will benefit enormously from the fallout while absolutely everyone else suffers post brexit. And their puppet Johnson will be at the despatch box to bluff and blame it all on the Eu Ireland and anything else possible in order to distract and deflect blame from where it truly belongs.

He’ll be allowed bullsh t his way through it too.

One thing I suspect is that Johnson is not a Brexiteer and probably likes the EU. So that raises all sorts of questions about what he is really up to and who he is trying to shaft (even people on that thread say they are unsure what is up to).

Beechwoodspark

The ramping up of no deal talk is to shore up brexit true believers

Either the Eu actually re negotiate or else he goes for an election and with a clear majority ends up doing a dogs dinner of a deal (or perhaps no deal) with the Eu.

Stop moaning ffs

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

The ramping up of no deal talk is to shore up brexit true believers

Either the Eu actually re negotiate or else he goes for an election and with a clear majority ends up doing a dogs dinner of a deal (or perhaps no deal) with the Eu.

The EU have some of the sharpest kinds in the planet. Someone like Sabine the machine is looking on at all this and they’re seeing it all night is an internal uk matter leading to an election.
They’re never going to blink and Boris has an impossibly huge climb down to do at some point or the impossible task of being unable to spin his defeat by the Eu as a positive.

Tell me how

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The EU have some of the sharpest kinds in the planet. Someone like Sabine the machine is looking on at all this and they’re seeing it all night is an internal uk matter leading to an election.
They’re never going to blink and Boris has an impossibly huge climb down to do at some point or the impossible task of being unable to spin his defeat by the Eu as a positive.

I don't expect to the EU to blink but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw something like this scenario play out.

Boris says they are definitely leaving by 31 Oct with a deal preferably (as is happening)
EU say they are no re-negotiating. (as is happening)
Boris says they will leave without a deal (as is happening)
HoC parliament blocks that
Boris says he needs an election to get his majority.
Asks EU for an extension (they have already indicated they might to facilitate election)
Election becomes defacto Brexit referendum with Tory/Brexit Party aiming to form some sort of alliance to deliver Brexit.
Outcome largely rests on position of Labour (Corbyn) on remain manifesto

Enzokk

It doesn't matter who is in charge or what plan they have, the facts of Brexit has not changed. The UK signed up to the GFA and Brexit is not compatible with keeping the North-South cooperation going without shared standards between NI and Ireland. The CTA takes care of passport checks but the EU customs union and single market means there needs to be no checks on goods or for tariffs.

A majority in the HoC will not change these facts, maybe what would change is that NI could be in the SM and CU and a border in the Irish Sea if England wants to have its own trade deals. At the moment the DUP makes that impossible but in a new general election their influence may be lessened and it could be possible to do this and have checks in the Irish Sea.

Dominic Cummins will not be able to change these facts and neither would Johnson.

Enzokk

Strazdas wrote: »

One thing I suspect is that Johnson is not a Brexiteer and probably likes the EU. So that raises all sorts of questions about what he is really up to and who he is trying to shaft (even people on that thread say they are unsure what is up to).

Well it seems he didn't have a good time in Brussels as a child as it is there where his parents split up. His record as a reporter from Brussels doesn't shout out to me as someone who likes the EU. I think he is a not in love with the EU at all and his actions bear this out. I think the second article he wrote for remain was the political gamble instead of the one for leave.

trellheim

Sorry missed the last few pages but Priti Patel is beginning to ramp up the rhetoric on immigration in her Mail on Sunday interview

This reinforces my view she was put in as a bogeyman .... hats off to Cummings here its a belter of a plan . I can only wait for the isolation of little old Ireland when a reasonable offer from the uk or whatever comes over ... that has to be the plan I cant see any alternative

remains to be seen you folks know I'm a cynic but lets see what comes out

Nody

trellheim wrote: »

Sorry missed the last few pages but Priti Patel is beginning to ramp up the rhetoric on immigration in her Mail on Sunday interview

This reinforces my view she was put in as a bogeyman .... hats off to Cummings here its a belter of a plan . I can only wait for the isolation of little old Ireland when a reasonable offer from the uk or whatever comes over ... that has to be the plan I cant see any alternative

remains to be seen you folks know I'm a cynic but lets see what comes out

Here's the counter to your cynical side; what can UK offer that will prevent NI border becoming an open border that does not align with Irish interest? EU does not want under any circumstances an open border for uncontrolled goods so what exactly is UK going to offer? Oh hey here's another couple of billions if you ignore the open border over there? Oh throw the Irish under the buss and we'll play nice with you? What exactly do you think UK could offer that would make it worth it?

ressem

What sort of trade deal are likely to be struck by the UK after a no deal exit?

The UK-USA deal will likely demand a large amount of US agricultural exports (a plus for US republicans), making the Mercosur deal look like a pittance. (and affecting Ireland / northern Ireland producers)
Deals with India and China might be less favourable due to political historical baggage.

And the UK is going to have to negotiate dozens of these deals simultaneously, with business howling at them to get out of WTO trade tariffs.

There was a line in the papers today that the EU is taking measures to force VAT to be paid on the enormous commodity derivatives trade out of London.
https://www.ft.com/content/6ce7c082-1f36-11e9-b2f7-97e4dbd3580d
where the EU view is that the 0% exemption granted in 1977 for some areas is being applied in an overbroad manner for competitive advantage. That would encourage a hard brexit position from some areas in the City of London?

brickster69

Enzokk wrote: »

The CTA takes care of passport checks but the EU customs union and single market means there needs to be no checks on goods or for tariffs.

Yes there needs to be checks, but they do not have to be performed at the border. WTO rules state that checks can be carried out away from frontier.So if EU / IRE insist on checks at the border that is up to them.

johnnyskeleton

trellheim wrote: »

This reinforces my view she was put in as a bogeyman .... hats off to Cummings here its a belter of a plan . I can only wait for the isolation of little old Ireland when a reasonable offer from the uk or whatever comes over ... that has to be the plan I cant see any alternative

Why does a reasonable offer from the UK have to involve the isolation of Ireland?

Spanish Eyes

Terrible times ahead, and I wish I didn't have to denigrate the UK Government under Johnson. But anyone in Ireland would have to be off the wall to think that there is any hope for us at all now.

Unless...... well give us a clue!

Zubeneschamali

brickster69 wrote: »

WTO rules state that checks can be carried out away from frontier.So if EU / IRE insist on checks at the border that is up to them.

If the UK leaves with no deal, they won't be worried about their border in Ireland. Their border with France and the motorway jam leading to it from London will be the issue.

And any deal which makes Dover Calais work will make the border in Ireland invisible again.

Beechwoodspark

I’ve read a bit of the Dominic Cummings blog today

As Tim shipman said- he comes across as a very intense man indeed

He’s obsessed with topics like artificial intelligence, the rise of China and how data models should be utilized more in govt. He sees the civil service machine as unfit for purpose.

Very little practical politics.

He goes on rants about how useless politicians and civil servants are regularly though.

Sam Russell

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If the UK leaves with no deal, they won't be worried about their border in Ireland. Their border with France and the motorway jam leading to it from London will be the issue.

And any deal which makes Dover Calais work will make the border in Ireland invisible again.

If it gets nasty, which it looks like it will, then Dover might be chaotic, but Heathrow, Gatwick ans Stansted will be at a standstill. The EU can just stop UK aircraft from landing at all EU airports by simply not allowing their proposed moratorium of the forth and fifth freedom rights. That alone will bring air travel to a halt in the UK.

The current proposal is to allow planes to travel to EU airports, but not carry on to a second EU airport. (This is an EU proposal to help the EU - not an agreement with the UK but if things get nasty .... ). They could just not allow UK aircraft to land at any EU airport if a trade war is declared by Johnson - as he is now making noises about.

He has a few big bazookas in his arsenal to silence the DUP, so his insistence that there be no infrastructure in Ireland only requires a border in the Irish sea which is simple to effect. A lot simpler to implement than his other strategies.

beggars_bush

Every utterance from the pro Brexit side now has to be checked against actual facts

You cannot trust a word that comes out of their mouths

BobbyBobberson

I am after going down a rabbits warren of Brexiteer accounts on Twitter and it is beyond baffling. A mix of baby boomers, retirees (both who have made their money and own their homes) and then working class individuals. All with this bizarre hate for the EU. Do these people lack a cause or an interest in their lives? Does Brexit and hate of the EU fill some type of gap?

I mentioned my uncle here previously being a brexiteer and how he wanted less EU laws and it is just so baffling. What EU law do you think about when you drive in your Audi or sit in Old Trafford ya sweaty bag of shyte. I find the whole mentality so weird.

BobbyBobberson

beggars_bush wrote: »

Every utterance from the pro Brexit side now has to be checked against actual facts

You cannot trust a word that comes out of their mouths

Even when proven wrong it does not matter. Check out Lord Digby's tweets today.

ThePanjandrum

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If the UK leaves with no deal, they won't be worried about their border in Ireland. Their border with France and the motorway jam leading to it from London will be the issue.

And any deal which makes Dover Calais work will make the border in Ireland invisible again.

So Calais wants to become a ghost town?