Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Water John

It shows when you start telling porkies, stay away from stats and figures, instead use generalisations. Haven't fully got the Trump messaging right, yet.

Stop moaning ffs

brickster69 wrote: »

It means the EU will not blink regardless of what the outcome will be.

Oh that’s a certainty. Sorry I understand your post now.
They never were going to and won’t.
When will boris and co realise?

Everyone else has.

Stop moaning ffs

lawred2 wrote: »

It's incredulous that someone could be so wrong about something so freely in the public domain.

90% of our exports go to the UK!?

Where was that sourced from? Some Victorian journal?

Idiotic

He’s getting torn apart in the replies with facts.
He’ll never see the replies though. It’s a propaganda account.

brickster69

Strazdas wrote: »

Even if No Deal was causing all sorts of problems, the Single Market would still be operating as normal with all borders open between the 27 states.

The one exception would be the UK which would have no trade deal with any SM country and would be at serious risk of ports and airports having to close.

Why would ports and airports have to close ?

brickster69

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Oh that’s a certainty. Sorry I understand your post now.
They never were going to and won’t.
When will boris and co realise?

Everyone else has.

They do. That's why the UK will leave the EU in a couple of months. If both parties try to limit the damage to either side in the meantime all well and good. If not life goes on.

McGiver

fash wrote:

Although the EU dislikes the precise Switzerland solution based on the complexity of loads of agreements which are constantly being tinkered with, the real reason why the Switzerland solution is not acceptable is the UK red lines:

There are only "10" treaties replicating the EEA treaty. So it's not so bad, but still easier to have one EEA treaty than 10, of course.

fash wrote:

Specifically the UK's refusal to accept freedom of movement, refusal of ongoing financial support of the single market and refusal to submit to ECJ jurisdiction. I strongly suspect that the UK is big enough and important enough that (subject to having a backstop), the EU would love to give the UK such a deal.

Yep. It would possible.
BTW ECJ has no jurisdiction in Switzerland. ECJ has also no jurisdiction in the other EFTA countries, EFTA Court settles disputes instead.

It boils down the free movement UK red line. And then general unwillingness to be part of any sort of supranational body wherein UK doesn't have a final say. Guess the WTO with upto 140 countries to object UK's actions will be a rather rude awakening.

Strazdas

brickster69 wrote: »

Why would ports and airports have to close ?

You can only import and export goods with the right documentation and a No Deal would mean the instant introduction of tariffs. As of midnight on the night of leaving, UK importers and exporters would need reams of documents to accompany the goods and all produce would have to be inspected by customs officials. This would cause massive delays and tailbacks at the ports and could well close the ports completely.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

You can only import and export goods with the right documentation and a No Deal would mean the instant introduction of tariffs. As of midnight on the night of leaving, UK importers and exporters would need reams of documents to accompany the goods and all produce would have to be inspected by customs officials. This would cause massive delays and tailbacks at the ports and could well close the ports completely.

In fact, if they crash out, on November 1st the UK will be the only country in the world trading solely on WTO terms.

Kermit.de.frog

Opinion piece in tomorrow's Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/varadkar-can-blame-britain-likes-real-threat-peace/

Some weird mental gymnastics going on.

brickster69

Strazdas wrote: »

You can only import and export goods with the right documentation and a No Deal would mean the instant introduction of tariffs. As of midnight on the night of leaving, UK importers and exporters would need reams of documents to accompany the goods and all produce would have to be inspected by customs officials. This would cause massive delays and tailbacks at the ports and could well close the ports completely.

What would it do to Calais in that situation considering the UK imports more than it exports. I don't think you understand how global trade works to be honest.

If you think that a container ship coming from China for example, suddenly gets inspected by hundreds of inspectors going through boxes and boxes of goods checking paperwork for compliance you live in another world.

Less than 3% of goods entering the EU get physically checked. Huge ramifications if one nations goods are singled out as opposed to others under WTO regs.

The WTO's job is to ensure the free flow of trade between nations.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Opinion piece in tomorrow's Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/varadkar-can-blame-britain-likes-real-threat-peace/

Some weird mental gymnastics going on.

The Telegraph isn't a newspaper. It's a mouthpiece for the Tory party. So this 'opinion' isn't opinion at all. It's what the Tory spin doctors told Timothy to write and he dutifully writes it. It suits the Tories to create a narrative where Ireland is the problem because it means the Tories aren't the problem. So The Telegraph creates the narrative.

A Dub in Glasgo

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Ruth Davidson sticking it to Boris by telling him she will not support no-deal Brexit.

Davidson is hugely popular and I doubt this is going down well in the Boris camp. Double trouble waiting for him when he visits Scotland next week.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/28/support-no-deal-brexit-scottish-ruth-davidson-boris-johnson

She is not hugely popular and has lost every election in Scotland. She is a media construct who flip flops over the issues and has sniffed out the knuckle dragging loyalist support in Scotland

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Opinion piece in tomorrow's Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/varadkar-can-blame-britain-likes-real-threat-peace/

Some weird mental gymnastics going on.

That is from Nick Timothy, who we should not forget is the reason why the Conservatives needs the DUP to get anything through parliament. Here is a couple of paragraphs, in relation to Leo Varadkar.

Instead, he gambled, and exhorted the EU to take the hardest line possible. Before the UK and EU could negotiate their future relationship, he insisted, the border question must be decided. Never mind that this was nonsensical and everybody knew the border could only be fixed in a future trade agreement.

And then later he blames May as well,

Books will be written about why Britain allowed Ireland and the EU to abuse the peace process in this way. My judgment is that Theresa May liked and wanted the backstop. She believed she had succeeded in splitting the EU’s fabled “four freedoms” – of goods, services, capital and people – by remaining in a customs territory with the EU while allowing Britain to control immigration. But this misunderstood the meaning of Brexit.

The purpose of the piece is just to pamper Johnson's ego though,

Under Theresa May, the UK almost succumbed. But now Boris Johnson is holding firm. When he visits Northern Ireland this week he should not be shy in pointing out who is risking a no-deal outcome and a hard border in Ireland. It is not the United Kingdom, but Leo Varadkar.

The backstop is supposed to stop a hard border, but by making the Withdrawal Agreement unratifiable, it is making no-deal and a hard border more likely. There can only be one solution: the backstop must go.

Really it is just more of the same. It is Ireland's fault for not giving the UK the deal they want to have frictionless trade with the EU but to be aligned with EU rules and regulations. The EU has used the GFA to ensure this happens and Leo Varadkar is the tool being used.

There is no blame on the UK, for leaving the EU and expecting the same benefits, or not having a plan.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

That is from Nick Timothy, who we should not forget is the reason why the Conservatives needs the DUP to get anything through parliament. Here is a couple of paragraphs, in relation to Leo Varadkar.

Instead, he gambled, and exhorted the EU to take the hardest line possible. Before the UK and EU could negotiate their future relationship, he insisted, the border question must be decided. Never mind that this was nonsensical and everybody knew the border could only be fixed in a future trade agreement.

Downright lies from this spiv. Sir Ivan Rogers confirmed recently that it was Enda Kenny in January 2017 who toughened up Ireland's position on the border, not Varadkar.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

That is from Nick Timothy, who we should not forget is the reason why the Conservatives needs the DUP to get anything through parliament. Here is a couple of paragraphs, in relation to Leo Varadkar.



And then later he blames May as well,



The purpose of the piece is just to pamper Johnson's ego though,



Really it is just more of the same. It is Ireland's fault for not giving the UK the deal they want to have frictionless trade with the EU but to be aligned with EU rules and regulations. The EU has used the GFA to ensure this happens and Leo Varadkar is the tool being used.

There is no blame on the UK, for leaving the EU and expecting the same benefits, or not having a plan.

When Johnson visits Belfast on his whistle stop tour, I wonder if he'll mention that Northern Ireland will suffer more than Great Britain and Ireland in the event of a no deal exit and that 40,000+ jobs are likely to go. Probably.

BobbyBobberson

Fair play to Nick Timothy. Imagine absolutely shagging your bosses open goal at an election, getting sacked, being ridiculed and still thinking you have all the answers. You have to admire that lack of self awareness. Ignorance is bliss.

Just watching the two part Brexit:Behind Closed Doors on BBC catch up. What a great insight.

reslfj

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Certainly, the original post claimed that the EU could bring UK airports to a halt, I was pointing out that every plane flying in and out of your country has to pass through a UK FIR. If the EU tried to damage Britain then Ireland could also suffer, as would the EU..

The use of threats is ridiculous, either side could cripple the other.

Convention on International Civil Aviation of 1944, known as the Chicago Convention allows all parties the first two freedoms of the air -

1. The right to fly over a foreign country without landing
2. The right to refuel or carry out maintenance in a foreign country without embarking or disembarking passengers or cargo.

But the freedoms 3, 4 landing and takeoff and 5-9 must be agreed bi-/multi-laterally - and this can only happen as a part of a deal with the EU27 (WA required)

The EU27 has announced just before March 29. 2019 that in case of a 'No Deal' Brexit the EU27 planned unilaterally to accept freedoms 3 and 4 for UK planes until April 2020 (direct flights UK <-> EU27) and accept security EASA safety certificates for UK planes until the end of 2019.

The EU has also said it would allow (on Brexit day) existing flight schedules to continue for a few months to avoid total chaos in flight reservations.

Short: The UK has no leverage whatsoever over EU27 flights.

Lars

%
Freedoms of the air:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedoms_of_the_air

Countries:
https://www.icao.int/secretariat/legal/List%20of%20Parties/Chicago_EN.pdf

J Mysterio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Opinion piece in tomorrow's Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/varadkar-can-blame-britain-likes-real-threat-peace/

Some weird mental gymnastics going on.

May's former Guru, Nick Timothy. That is a horrendously twisted piece and an obvious incitement.

UK seems to be full of these nasty little schemer's at the moment. Shame he wasnt smart enough to not call a GE at such an inopportune time, and then fail hard in the campaign before being forced to resign.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

May's former Guru, Nick Timothy. That is a horrendously twisted piece and an obvious incitement.

UK seems to be full of these nasty little schemer's at the moment. Shame he wasnt smart enough to not call a GE at such an inopportune time, and then fail hard in the campaign before being forced to resign.

There's going to be tons more of this garbage for weeks to come. Ireland should not get involved in a slanging match though......all of this bile is aimed at winning over the Brexit disciples, it's not really about the Irish at all.

An Claidheamh

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Opinion piece in tomorrow's Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/varadkar-can-blame-britain-likes-real-threat-peace/

Some weird mental gymnastics going on.

British Brexiters are so bankrupt of ideas that they just being childish with the Good Friday Agreement, such a whiff of desperation.



Jeepers, ended up reading the comments below.

Same old British stuff, a very sad group of people :

"Why can't them Éire join our commonwealth"

"Ireland caused their border, wanting their country back innit"

"up until now we were best friends....." (except for.... everything up to now)

(following Anti-Irish nonsense, patronising stuff, delusions...)"why them Paddies not like us, they are in the EU just to attack us"

"Varadkar is a foreigner, Ireland can't be listening to foreigners (sic except British ones)"

"they've overplayed their hand" (3 years now, like a slogan or something )

"EU tax, they need our market, banking loan, the IRA, they will get punished, German cars, etc"

"Moan, moan, moan, moan, moan, Rule Britannia"


It's actually rather transfixing, rather relieved that some of the commenters appreciated we despise them, their empire and aren't their "friends".

Varadkar "is a Republican extremist" that was my favourite.

Peregrinus

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I think you underestimate the financial markets.

What have the financial markets got to do with it? Serious question.

Foghladh

An Claidheamh wrote: »

British Brexiters are so bankrupt of ideas that they just being childish with the Good Friday Agreement, such a whiff of desperation.



Jeepers, ended up reading the comments below.

Same old British stuff, a very sad group of people :

"Why can't them Éire join our commonwealth"

"Ireland caused their border, wanting their country back innit"

"up until now we were best friends....." (except for.... everything up to now)

(following Anti-Irish nonsense, patronising stuff, delusions...)"why them Paddies not like us, they are in the EU just to attack us"

"Varadkar is a foreigner, Ireland can't be listening to foreigners (sic except British ones)"

"they've overplayed their hand" (3 years now, like a slogan or something )

"EU tax, they need our market, banking loan, the IRA, they will get punished, German cars, etc"

"Moan, moan, moan, moan, moan, Rule Britannia"


It's actually rather transfixing, rather relieved that some of the commenters appreciated we despise them, their empire and aren't their "friends".

Varadkar "is a Republican extremist" that was my favourite.

That is surprising alright given that an online comments section is normally so balanced. Is it not a little silly to accuse them of being childish and then to proclaim that you despise them and aren't their friends?

McGiver

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Opinion piece in tomorrow's Telegraph. Some weird mental gymnastics going on.

Disgusting propaganda. And the comments. Lies, fantasies and delusions. I don't know if these are paid trolls or actually people. If the latter then it's scary.

Leaving all criticism of the domestic policy aside, Varadkar has played the Brexit very well.

Stop moaning ffs

That was unexpected. People already asking why the money isn’t put to better use but this is still odd. Thought it was going to be glorious and so easy?
Apparently not

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1155589617569214465?s=21

Peregrinus

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

She is not hugely popular and has lost every election in Scotland. She is a media construct who flip flops over the issues and has sniffed out the knuckle dragging loyalist support in Scotland

There has only been one Scottish election since she took over as leader of the Scottish Conservative Party and, in that election, the Tories under Davidson substantially increased their vote and nearly doubled their representation in the Scottish Parliament, from 15 seats to 31, with the result that (a) the SNP lost their majority, and (b) the Tories overtook the Labour Party to become the official opposition. If that's a loss, it's a loss a lot of parties would be thrilled to have.

Enzokk

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That was unexpected. People already asking why the money isn’t put to better use but this is still odd. Thought it was going to be glorious and so easy?
Apparently not

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1155589617569214465?s=21

Here is the article, hopefully you will be able to enlarge the photo and read it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAmTC8HXsAAE85i?format=jpg&name=large

The fear of Sir Ivan Rogers will be realized, we will walk into no-deal due to politicians not really understanding the impact. You can also see clearly that May knew how bad it was going to be so she was not really preparing for it, but Johnson may just be stupid enough to walk into it. If he convinces enough people that it is the way they will vote for it, and when they voted for it he will have to implement it.

A couple of stories on Dominic Cummings. Seems he wants to limit leaks from aides,

Dominic Cummings' 'one strike and you're out' ban on Cabinet leaks is leaked to Daily Telegraph

I wasn't able to read the whole article but it does make the point that the warning about leaks were leaked. This reminds me of the farce of Trump and the leaks as well. The photo in the article just makes him look weird, in a corner like he doesn't really belong. I fear there will be some polite revolt from the civil service against Johnson with Cummings at his side.

The second story is how he is even able to be an aide seeing as he was found to be in contempt of parliament by refusing to testify.

Boris Johnson’s key adviser must face sanctions, demand MPs

Prominent MPs on the committee investigating fake news and disinformation want Boris Johnson’s aide Dominic Cummings, who has been found in contempt of parliament, to face sanctions in his new role at the heart of government. These could include docking his salary, denying him a security pass and putting pressure on the prime minister to force him to give evidence to parliament.

Johnson’s decision to appoint Cummings as a key adviser outraged many MPs because it came less than four months after parliament unanimously passed a motion, tabled by the government, to censure him for failing to testify at the fake news inquiry.

This paragraph was telling for me and frightening,

In his new role at Downing Street Cummings appears to be getting Johnson on an election footing; the Conservative party Facebook page has fielded hundreds of ads since his appointment. Although they are spending relatively small amounts, the range of ads allow them to test voters’ responses and gather data on those who do interact with the advertisements.

So here we go again. I would not be surprised if the Cambridge Analytica successor is being used in this campaign as well.

Borderhopper

Just listening to news talk at the minute with Dan O’Brien from the Irish independent. His opinion is that the backstop is a tactical mistake, the Irish government should’ve agreed a time limit, there’s a massive miscalculation by the EU and Irish government that the UK aren’t really serious about no deal. In other words, no one is stupid enough to shoot themselves in the head.

Is this a narrative developing in the media in Ireland now? It’s a few time I’ve heard both guests and hosts comment on how much of a mistake the backstop is.

VinLieger

Borderhopper wrote: »

Just listening to news talk at the minute with Dan O’Brien from the Irish independent. His opinion is that the backstop is a tactical mistake, the Irish government should’ve agreed a time limit, there’s a massive miscalculation by the EU and Irish government that the UK aren’t really serious about no deal. In other words, no one is stupid enough to shoot themselves in the head.

Thats a contradictory argument, if the UK aren't serious about No Deal then how is the backstop a tactical mistake? Agreeing a time limit to stop the UK doing something they don't would be pointless.

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

There has only been one Scottish election since she took over as leader of the Scottish Conservative Party and, in that election, the Tories under Davidson substantially increased their vote and nearly doubled their representation in the Scottish Parliament, from 15 seats to 31, with the result that (a) the SNP lost their majority, and (b) the Tories overtook the Labour Party to become the official opposition. If that's a loss, it's a loss a lot of parties would be thrilled to have.

It is true that there has been one Scottish election, but there has been 2 Westminster elections and the European elections as well. It would be naive to think that her performance did not have some influence in voters minds when they went to the polls in those.

If you look at the results in those it is mixed at best. She did well in the 2017 election but you wonder if that was a response to the SNP surge from 2 years before and whether she still had momentum from the results in the 2016 Scottish elections. Since then her performance as leader has had time to be analyzed and the results in the election of the EU Parliament the Conservatives came 4th, behind the SNP, Brexit and the Lib Dems.

It will be interesting to see what the results are in the next election as she is not being helped by the Conservatives in the England, but at the same time she has not been vocal in opposition to their stance on Brexit.

Beechwoodspark

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Ruth Davidson sticking it to Boris by telling him she will not support no-deal Brexit.

Davidson is hugely popular and I doubt this is going down well in the Boris camp. Double trouble waiting for him when he visits Scotland next week.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/28/support-no-deal-brexit-scottish-ruth-davidson-boris-johnson

She’s not hugely popular in Scotland. The tories are going to be decimated there next time out.