Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

KildareP

Leroy42 wrote: »

There will be a deal with the US, I think I recall seeing that Australia were ready for a deal as soon as the UK exits.

And they will be sold as great achievements, a poke in the eye of the EU and proof that 'Project Fear' was a nonsense.

But what media outlet is actually going to do any deep dive on the agreements? C4 maybe.

Any interviews will be dominated by people like Raab etc claiming that it was done, they said it couldn't be done, Brexit is a success blah blah. But at no stage will anybody actually ask how it is better than what they had before.

The Australian FTA won't happen - a committee was formed in 2016 and they had an interim report (available here: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/tradewithUK/Interim_Report/section?id=committees%2freportjnt%2f024101%2f25068) that looked into what a UK FTA might entail.

The report is pretty damning - particularly Section 4.67 onwards, Timing of proposed FTA negotiations with the EU and UK.

In essence it says:
- Australia is in no rush to conclude anything (Point 4.72)
- Australia's interests must come first (Point 4.73)
- The Commonwealth is no reason to give the UK any favourable treatment (Point 4.74)
- Given the option, an EU FTA is more beneficial than a UK-only one (Point 4.76)
- That maintaining good relations with the EU is more important than concluding any deal with the UK (Point 4.77)

In fact Point 4.77 is particularly striking:

4.77
Academics Dr Ben Wellings, Dr Annmarie Elijah and Professor Bruce Wilson submitted there are two political risks associated with the UK’s desire for a free trade agreement with Australia.

The first is that Australia’s good relationship with the EU is damaged by perceptions of alacrity on behalf of Australia to enter into such negotiations with the UK when negotiations on a trade agreement with the EU are just starting.

The second is that Australia’s interests get caught up in the possibly unrealistic worldview of the Brexiteers and thus Australia becomes collateral damage of domestic British politics.

Particularly sobering if you were on the Brexiteer side...

I can see Australia taking the Canadian perspective - why enter a bilateral FTA when you can reap the same (or better) benefits using WTO MFN if Britain is going to apply zero-tariffs on all imports on a unilateral basis?

Lackadaisical

There seems to be a major push on to destabilise the Irish Government on this. I wouldn't be a fan of FG but I'm reading a lot of stuff with a large dose of scepticism. The current UK incumbent and the Brexit drivers have massive PR and social media influencer resources at their disposal in a way we have never seen before.

I wouldn't be surprised if they try to take FG down, particularly if SF is seen now as less of a risk due to poor polling.

There's a perception in the UK that FF would be more favourable to Brexit. Most of it is totally misguided, but some of it is assuming that because FF used to sit in a very right wing EP grouping and because one of their MEPs defected to the Tory-led European Conservative and Reform when FF joined the ALDE, that FF more likely to have Eurosceptics that could be brought on side.

I know that anyone who knows FF in Ireland knows this is bonkers, but that's the kind of chatter I have heard and it is logical enough if you were looking at FF with only an outsider's perspective.

J Mysterio

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Find myself in the uncomfortable position of having a lifelong opposition to US interference in other countries problems and policies, to welcoming this interference warmly

I share your sentiment as regards US interventionism. They have a long and sordid history of this throughout the world whereby they have surreptitiously funded hostile takeovers via extremists groups and staged events for their own benefit etc. etc. But, the US can and has been a force for good too. See the GFA and the Berlin Wall etc. etc.

Beechwoodspark

FF if anything would be even “greener” on NI issues than FG.

RTÉ news alert saying Boris says he will sit down for talks when the EU are ready to change position on the deal.

Stop moaning ffs

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

FF if anything would be even “greener” on NI issues than FG.

RTÉ news alert saying Boris says he will sit down for talks when the EU are ready to change position on the deal.

Positioning himself as the reasonable one and painting the EU as stubborn and the problem.

Dominic Cummings earning his pay.

Leroy42

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

FF if anything would be even “greener” on NI issues than FG.

RTÉ news alert saying Boris says he will sit down for talks when the EU are ready to change position on the deal.

How is that an alert? Johnson has said that the UK are willing to restart talks when the EU drop the backstop. Not to discuss it, not to think of alternatives, the EU must drop the backstop before talks even begin.

So either the EU are going to have to back dow, or the UK is, to avoid a No Deal.

Look at the interview with Raab posted earlier about flexibility of the UK, he had no answer. Nothing. And they have nothing to offer the UK in terms of what the EU can gain from dropping the backstop. Which is usual in a negotiation.

Stop moaning ffs

J Mysterio wrote: »

I share your sentiment as regards US interventionism. They have a long and sordid history of this throughout the world whereby they have surreptitiously funded hostile takeovers via extremists groups and staged events for their own benefit etc. etc. But, the US can and has been a force for good too. See the GFA and the Berlin Wall etc. etc.

Absolutely.

The GFA is used often by US as a template and shining example of how peace can be achieved.

Now the current British government are about to tear it up. Publicly. By reinstating direct rule. Which will lead to a return to violence.

It’ll land at their feet internationally despite the attempts were seeing in uk media to say its ireland that’s doing it.

Lackadaisical

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

FF if anything would be even “greener” on NI issues than FG.

RTÉ news alert saying Boris says he will sit down for talks when the EU are ready to change position on the deal.

That's not necessarily understood in the UK though. Bear in mind that the previous Northern secretary didn't know that people voted along nationalists and Unionist lines and that is part of the jurisdiction they're supposed to be governing!!

VinLieger

They are 100% trying to drive a wedge between the Irish political parties and destabilise things for us.


Unfortunately i think many people who arent as read up on brexit as those in this thread might easily fall for this. I really hope the politicians ie Michael Martin and Mary Lou see it for what it really is and don't try take advantage of it.

Stop moaning ffs

VinLieger wrote: »

They are 100% trying to drive a wedge between the Irish political parties and destabilise things for us.


Unfortunately i think many people who arent as read up on brexit as those in this thread might easily fall for this. I really hope the politicians ie Michael Martin and Mary Lou see it for what it really is and don't try take advantage of it.

Just yesterday we had FF asking on twitter where are the governments plans for border checks.
Massive misstep by ff to break ranks like that. We all know they’re waiting in the wings to take over but they came on stage with that far too early. And it will make things difficult for us now and them when they do inevitably take over. Hung by their own words.

Strazdas

Lots of claims on Twitter today that the British electorate voted for No Deal in 2016. This hard Brexit crowd are really hijacking the narrative

LordBasil

I also think Brexiteers hoping/trying to destabilise the Irish government in the hopes that a GE is called and FF replace FG in power are deluded.

A GE this year could have a similar result to 2016 GE instead with FF having more seats than FG but nowhere a majority. FF would struggle to negotiate a coalition with anyone;

The Greens; I think the polls overestimate them as was shown in the Local and European Elections. I mean the Greens did well but not as well as the Exit Polls predicted. They'd also be very cautious after last time.

Labour: Stagnant, unlikely to have the numbers.

Independents/SDs: Too unreliable, not enough to command majority.

SF; Not a hope

FG: A C&S agreement with FG could take months to negotiate. I don't think Leo and Co would agree to one personally

A National Coalition might be the only option which wouldn't be beneficial to the British.

Stop moaning ffs

Boris just said he’s spoken to all the Eu leaders and he’s calling Leo today and they’re resolute there’ll be no renegotiation ....not there’s ample space for a new deal


Literally double speak

Sam Russell

Sterling just short of a one year high - 29th Aug 2018 had a blip of 90.08p - now it is at 90.06p.

Market moving towards pricing in No Deal.

VinLieger

Sam Russell wrote: »

Sterling just short of a one year high - 29th Aug 2018 had a blip of 90.08p - now it is at 90.06p.

Market moving towards pricing in No Deal.

Things were picking up at the end of last week but looks like all this No Deal bluster over the weekend is having a big impact pushing it the other way again

Lackadaisical

They're also overestimating Irish domestic political focus on Brexit. In any GE here the topics would be health and housing. There's an assumption by the electorate here that the general attitude to Brexit is pretty homogenous.

I think FF would also want to be careful about allowing themselves to be unpicked by Tories. This really is a topic where there's a common "enemy" and a solid Irish position that needs to be maintained.

Effectively we have a situation at the moment where the government is being driven by the Dail anyway. There have even been opposition bills passed that the government didn't support. It's basically in something more akin to a Scandinavian style grand coalition than anything else and that gives FF lots of leeway to show they can drive policy and prepare for full term general election with a fully developed platform.

If they jump at a GE mid crisis I think it would really be shortsighted stuff.

Stop moaning ffs

Lackadaisical wrote: »

They're also overestimating Irish domestic political focus on Brexit. In any GE here the topics would be health and housing. There's an assumption that the general attitude to Brexit is pretty homogenous.

I think FF would also want to be careful about allowing themselves to be unpicked by Tories. This really is a topic where there's a common "enemy" and a solid Irish position that needs to be maintained.

Effectively we have a situation at the moment where the government is being driven by the Dail anyway. There have even been opposition bills passed that the government didn't support. It's basically in something more akin to a Scandinavian style grand coalition than anything else and that gives FF lots of leeway to show they can drive policy and prepare for full term general election with a fully developed platform.

If they jump at a GE mid crisis I think it would really be shortsighted stuff.

They said two weeks ago they have no plans to call a GE and this weekend criticising the government for not outlining plans.

It’s probably just laying seedbed for the GE when it does happen but it’s badly timed to criticise the FG govt right now. It’ll backfire.

Strazdas

Lackadaisical wrote: »

They're also overestimating Irish domestic political focus on Brexit. In any GE here the topics would be health and housing. There's an assumption by the electorate here that the general attitude to Brexit is pretty homogenous.

I think FF would also want to be careful about allowing themselves to be unpicked by Tories. This really is a topic where there's a common "enemy" and a solid Irish position that needs to be maintained.

Effectively we have a situation at the moment where the government is being driven by the Dail anyway. There have even been opposition bills passed that the government didn't support. It's basically in something more akin to a Scandinavian style grand coalition than anything else and that gives FF lots of leeway to show they can drive policy and prepare for full term general election with a fully developed platform.

If they jump at a GE mid crisis I think it would really be shortsighted stuff.

I notice though that Lisa Chambers today backed the Govt on the backstop and said it would be wrong for the EU to reopen negotiations on the WA.

Laois_Man

Lackadaisical wrote: »

If they jump at a GE mid crisis I think it would really be shortsighted stuff.

The reality is, in the event of a no-deal Brexit on October 31st, followed by the UK slowly deviating from EU standards and the resulting need for Ireland and the EU to erect a hard border, FF will, and I think are already positioning themselves to make political hay out of that with an Irish general election in February/March 2020 in their sights!

Any defeat for FG in that election will be sold in the UK media as revenge/victory or a "We told you so"....ignoring the fact that Taoiseach Martin won't be doing much different for the UK if they are still looking for a trade deal with the EU

But we have to stop giving a **** about how the UK are selling this to themselves.

KildareP

The Telegraph comment sections are like a parody-fest, spotted this comment on the Varadkar story a few minutes ago:

So the potato famine was really our fault all along because we were exporting so much food, entirely of our own free will, clearly!

I mean - how do you even debate comments like that?

Kermit.de.frog

Border infrastructure would not be required straight away. It would be months at least before UK diverged on anything that would warrant it.

In that time UK will need some sort of deal with the EU and they will just tell the UK they need to sign up to the backstop in order to get a deal.

In a no deal the consequences for the UK economy are absolutely dire. The EU can also put up all sorts of restrictions on top of that.

Sam Russell

KildareP wrote: »

The Telegraph comment sections are like a parody-fest, spotted this comment on the Varadkar story a few minutes ago:

So the potato famine was really our fault all along because we were exporting so much food, entirely of our own free will, clearly!

I mean - how do you even debate comments like that?

He tries to understand.

Reminds me of the story of the Eton boy asked to write an essay about a poor family.

He started:

The Family were poor. The father was poor. The mother was poor. The children were poor. Even the butler was poor. .....

Tacitus Kilgore

KildareP wrote: »

The Telegraph comment sections are like a parody-fest, spotted this comment on the Varadkar story a few minutes ago:
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=486664&stc=1&d=1564405877
So the potato famine was really our fault all along because we were exporting so much food, entirely of our own free will, clearly!

I mean - how do you even debate comments like that?

I wonder does that commenter live in an apartment that smells of rich mahogany? :pac:

If he was as well read as claimed to be - he wouldn't refer to it as the potato famine, and might understand who was doing the exporting.


If all this wasn't so serious you'd think it was a dystopian netflix docco being played out live.

Nate--IRL--

That comment reads to me to be from an Irish person being sarcastic.


Nate

KildareP

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

That comment reads to me to be from an Irish person being sarcastic.


Nate

I just don't know what sarcasm is anymore in relation to Brexit

Maybe it is, maybe it isn't - I couldn't even hazard a guess.

Lackadaisical

They've a tendency to forget that from 1801 until 1922 they were the Irish Government. It was nominally a nation but in reality a part of a unitary British state known as the UK. There was no devolution beyond what power was held by county and city councils (or their equivalents at the time).

They (the British Government) made the decisions and they refuse to accept any responsibility for them. Instead you've commentators imagining that Ireland had some serious say in its affairs because it had the notional title of a nation, just without any powers of self determination or control over any of its affairs. It wasn't even comparable to modern Scotland or a US state in terms of autonomy. It had none.

It was very much a case of force integration of another country into the English political system, which in effect disenfranchised it.

Before that you'd Ireland as a British colony and all sorts of insanity with disenfranchisment based on religion and so on.

If someone wants to go read a few books and then revise history, I'm not quite sure where to even begin to argue.

Irish history until 1922 and Northern Irish history, including the troubles is UK / British history. I find it bizzare that they claim to be unionists, yet disown that.

The reality is the famine occured in the UK, at the time the richest and most powerful country in the world, yet millions of its citizens had to flee to the US and elsewhere as refugees of poverty and hunger. That's British 19th century history. Don't try to disown it! It's yours. Those people who boarded famine ships and arrived starving in the US were at that time British citizens leaving UK ports because of failed British government policies that led to mass starvation. That's the rather unpalatable reality of it.

Even in modern times the average UK commentator seems to think Northern Ireland is some foreign place. The troubles happened in the UK, not in the Republic of Ireland (other than a couple of isolated incidents of spill over) It's absolutely mindbogglingly levels of cognitive dissonance and sheer hypocrisy that allows people to rant and rave about the union and then in the same breath disown the deeply troubled history of that place.

And now they're going to leave the EU and blame the EU for the consequences of their decision to leave!

By the end of this the rest of Europe will know precisely why Irish - British (at least the jingoistic nationalist types) relations are so bad for so long. They punch you in the face and then claim you hurt their hand with your unreasonably hard cheekbones!

steddyeddy

Amazing that paper that blames all British woes on the EU hosts an article about Irish people blaming their problems on Britain.

DOCARCH

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In that time UK will need some sort of deal with the EU and they will just tell the UK they need to sign up to the backstop in order to get a deal.

....and post on bank draft for E39,000,000,000.00.

BluePlanet

The government should be countering with their own narrative. Britain will not be allowed to drag Ireland out of the Custom Union.

FrancieBrady

BluePlanet wrote: »

The government should be countering with their own narrative. Britain will not be allowed to drag Ireland out of the Custom Union.

The government shouldn't be rising to the bait(it's low level stuff)...let the EU appointed negotiators do the talking.