Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

VinLieger

Sterling's just gone below 1.10 against the Euro that's now the lowest its been in 2 years

ancapailldorcha

robinph wrote: »

Whilst I completely understand the need to just get on with it and tell the UK to go stuff themselves, please remember that the UK population are people too and most don't want any of this.

Thank you. There are plenty of people here who are appalled by this. Then there are the Irish businesses who depend heavily on trade with the UK (Tony Connelly's Brexit & Ireland being an excellent read for anyone interested) and 3 million EU migrants along with plenty of British expats who didn't vote for Brexit.

The property owners, the Shire Tories, the bankers, middle classes et al will be fine. It's the working class who will pay the price. I think people deserve a chance to appraise the revelations of the last three years and to be asked if they are sure they wish to proceed. If so, on their heads be it.

Strazdas

road_high wrote: »

But the British are so important don’t you know? Everyone will bend over backwards to accommodate them!

The entire referendum campaign was built around this lie. Britain was so powerful that it could leave the EU and handpick a fantastic trading arrangement with them afterwards.....Johnson was one of the main figures pushing this line

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Thank you. There are plenty of people here who are appalled by this. Then there are the Irish businesses who depend heavily on trade with the UK (Tony Connelly's Brexit & Ireland being an excellent read for anyone interested) and 3 million EU migrants along with plenty of British expats who didn't vote for Brexit.

The property owners, the Shire Tories, the bankers, middle classes et al will be fine. It's the working class who will pay the price. I think people deserve a chance to appraise the revelations of the last three years and to be asked if they are sure they wish to proceed. If so, on their heads be it.

The problem is they are being lied to on an industrial scale by the Tories, the Brexit Party and the right wing press. We had Raab telling them this morning they voted for No Deal in 2016.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

The problem is they are being lied to on an industrial scale by the Tories, the Brexit Party and the right wing press. We had Raab telling them this morning they voted for No Deal in 2016.

No disagreement there. Britain in Europe won the 1975 referendum and then disappeared back into the Tory party. The National Referendum Campaign morphed and evolved to keep pushing its arguments until 2016.

I think remain would win a People's Vote. I think Brexit has been shown up for the farce it is to most people at this stage. Plenty of people will still vote for Brexit but I think enough people who don't normally vote will use the chance to save their rights from being stolen.

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

The problem is they are being lied to on an industrial scale by the Tories, the Brexit Party and the right wing press. We had Raab telling them this morning they voted for No Deal in 2016.

This was the SoS for Brexit that did not know how close Dover was to Calais, and admitted that he had not read the 38 page Good Friday Agreement that required the backstop - you know, the backstop that was the sticking point in the Brexit negotiations.

I bet he never read the 585 page Withdrawal Agreement either.

He is just plain thick.

Kermit.de.frog

VinLieger wrote: »

Sterling's just gone below 1.10 against the Euro that's now the lowest its been in 2 years

Is the market finally giving it's verdict?

Could we see some major announcements in terms of relocations and job cuts in the next few weeks?

I'd be keeping an eye on the likes of Airbus for example...

road_high

Strazdas wrote: »

The entire referendum campaign was built around this lie. Britain was so powerful that it could leave the EU and handpick a fantastic trading arrangement with them afterwards.....Johnson was one of the main figures pushing this line

Well that’s their own lookout- the EU can’t be accountable for the dim witted nature of Brexit voters. The time is up now, sometimes in life you got to leave the hard way.

Nody

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, the idea that the EU would throw an existing member state under the bus in favour of a departing one was always fanciful. Only a Brexiteer could believe that.

Yet that has been a claim or expectations multiple times over the last two years; "Oh just wait as EU will throw Ireland under the bus to get a deal done". That and the fact they can't grasp why there is no reason for EU27 to throw Ireland under the buss appears to be lost on them.

ancapailldorcha

Nody wrote: »

Yet that has been a claim or expectations multiple times over the last two years; "Oh just wait as EU will throw Ireland under the bus to get a deal done". That and the fact they can't grasp why there is no reason for EU27 to throw Ireland under the buss appears to be lost on them.

It's not that there is no reason to throw Ireland under the bus. It's that the EU is mainly composed of small and middling states. If Ireland gets screwed over then the whole project is doomed. The EU is supposed to stand up for and protect its members. Abandoning Ireland kills the EU's raison d'être stone dead.

road_high

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

No disagreement there. Britain in Europe won the 1975 referendum and then disappeared back into the Tory party. The National Referendum Campaign morphed and evolved to keep pushing its arguments until 2016.

I think remain would win a People's Vote. I think Brexit has been shown up for the farce it is to most people at this stage. Plenty of people will still vote for Brexit but I think enough people who don't normally vote will use the chance to save their rights from being stolen.

There’s been several elections in the UK- no big swing to remain evident whatsoever. In fact the opposite if the carry on of the EU elections is the latest example

ancapailldorcha

road_high wrote: »

There’s been several elections in the UK- no big swing to remain evident whatsoever. In fact the opposite if the carry on of the EU elections is the latest example

There's been one national since the referendum. Now that we see that a no deal Brexit is both likely and more calamitous than originally thought, I think that the electorate deserve another chance. If they vote for the Brexit Party or Johnson's Tories then that's it.

ambro25

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

This. Also Boris will get carried away, if he's not doing so already, and will shoot himself in the foot with his nasty attacks on Ireland and the EU. He can't cherry pick what s***e he wants the public to swallow, and many are of Irish descent or Irish/EU. It just smacks of desperation because team Boris have no fresh ideas on how to deliver brexit and it is going to become very clear to everyone soon enough. His xenophobic sh!te is going to come back to bite him on the bum. May didn't stoop to this level.. he is some cretin.

And his odd ball team can not hide behind lies, blame and bluster for long and will start to show the strain and fail to stick to the Cummings script.

Respectfully, some of us queue-jumping citizens of nowhere have functioning memories.

Johnson may be a populist, and a racist one at that...but he didn't engineer the UK's 9 year-old "hostile environment" policies that endure and are bearing all their fruits nowadays.

She's done a lot of actual and measurable harm, in the xenophobia department.

J Mysterio

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Thank you. There are plenty of people here who are appalled by this. Then there are the Irish businesses who depend heavily on trade with the UK (Tony Connelly's Brexit & Ireland being an excellent read for anyone interested) and 3 million EU migrants along with plenty of British expats who didn't vote for Brexit.

The property owners, the Shire Tories, the bankers, middle classes et al will be fine. It's the working class who will pay the price. I think people deserve a chance to appraise the revelations of the last three years and to be asked if they are sure they wish to proceed. If so, on their heads be it.

I fail to see how the middle class will be fine? they will be destroyed along with nearly everyone else.

Lackadaisical

Wow Sterling's taking a real hammering now €1.00 = 0.9112

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURGBP:CUR

For the sake of historical context. IEP = €1.2697, so in old money IEP 1.00 = GBP 1.16 (1.15695064)
Might give you a sense of how much it's slipped over the last few years.

road_high

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

There's been one national since the referendum. Now that we see that a no deal Brexit is both likely and more calamitous than originally thought, I think that the electorate deserve another chance. If they vote for the Brexit Party or Johnson's Tories then that's it.

They will do that- there’s a siege mentality this whole thing and BoJo wants to be Churchill the 2nd.

ambro25

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is the market finally giving it's verdict?

Could we see some major announcements in terms of relocations and job cuts in the next few weeks?

I'd be keeping an eye on the likes of Airbus for example...

Makes me wonder about that too, and also whether the uncharacteristically-clear anti-Brexit message from PSA about the Ellesmere Vauxhall plant in today's FT is a proverbial first domino. Other manufacturers have been either silent about relocations/shut-downs, or invoking broader context/issues, anything-else-but-the-Brexit-elephant-in-the-room like, until now.

sink

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I am quite annoyed that the SINDO gives ammunition to people like this

https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1155755019846787072

I'll refrain from saying what I really think of that "newspaper".

I don't read the Independent so I'm not sure if Eoghan Harris has ever addressed what he thinks will happen if we drop the backstop.

We know exactly what the Brits want, that being a basic free trade agreement, with full regulatory autonomy and no ECJ oversight. That will definitely require a hard border.

So dropping the backstop immediately opens up discussion about what type of infrastructure will be required. That will be discussion on where to place designated import/export crossings points with customs declaration facilities. Sanitary & Phytosanitary inspection points (away from the border OFC). Cameras with NPR at all other unmanned crossings. There will also need to be roving customs agents doing random spot checks to catch smuggling.

So if that's what Eoghan Harris is advocating, fine he should be upfront about it. If he has swallowed the Brexiteers guff about technologic solutions that nobody can articulate he's a moron who is best ignored.

VinLieger

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Wow Sterling's taking a real hammering now €1.00 = 0.9112

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURGBP:CUR

For the sake of historical context. IEP = €1.2697, so in old money IR£ = GB£ 1.16 (1.15695064)

It is dropping fast the last 2 hours, we very likely will see it drop below its lowest rate in 5 years this week possibly even 10 if it continues like this

ancapailldorcha

J Mysterio wrote: »

I fail to see how the middle class will be fine? they will be destroyed along with nearly everyone else.

Good point. I used to define middle class people as those who own homes, cars and go on a few luxury holidays a year. Those people will be fine. People just starting out with a mortgage or still paying for one will likely be in serious financial difficulty.

Lackadaisical

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Good point. I used to define middle class people as those who own homes, cars and go on a few luxury holidays a year. Those people will be fine. People just starting out with a mortgage or still paying for one will likely be in serious financial difficulty.

If Sterling collapses they won't be fine, as their spending power will be dramatically decreased. A lot of inflationary pressures seem to have been absorbed by retailers / supply chains burning out the fat in the system (the UK isn't particularly price sensitive as a consumer market, so tends to get charged more) but there's only so much of that can go on before you start to see steep price hikes.

Lemming

ambro25 wrote: »

Respectfully, some of us queue-jumping citizens of nowhere have functioning memories.

Johnson may be a populist, and a racist one at that...but he didn't engineer the UK's 9 year-old "hostile environment" policies that endure and are bearing all their fruits nowadays.

She's done a lot of actual and measurable harm, in the xenophobia department.

The hostile environment that continues to grow legs; article this morning on the Guardian website regards Chagos Islanders - some of whom hold British passports - being denied council services whilst being asked why they wont "go home". Never mind the fact that "home" is gone, courtesy of Britain's forced displacement of Diego Garcia.

Utterly contemptible behaviour and a legacy of shame for May.

Infini

The one thing I will say is the Brexiteer's are really gonna regret forcing a No Deal if they really end up causing one because ultimately while we don't truly want them to leave the moment they do so the gloves come off and they'll truly find themselves finding out how powerless they truly are not to mention any agreement with they EU will likely need the approval of Ireland or be utterly shot down if they cross us expecially if the damage causes us enough hardship.

Noone truly want's this except the Brexiteers but ultimately it's up to the British People to sort out their own country, sadly it seems like everything else in all this Political stupidity and arrogance over there is prevailing in the short term and only a Hard Crushing Reality Check is going to change things, sadly it might end up causing the UK to break up before England finally cops on.

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Wow Sterling's taking a real hammering now €1.00 = 0.9112

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURGBP:CUR

For the sake of historical context. IEP = €1.2697, so in old money IEP 1.00 = GBP 1.16 (1.15695064)
Might give you a sense of how much it's slipped over the last few years.

I'll be honest while this could in theory be the start of the real slide to be perfectly honest it's only once the pound starts hitting 95p to the €1 and heads towards parity that we'll know the real effect of Brexit beginning to show that everyone warned them about.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

There's been one national since the referendum. Now that we see that a no deal Brexit is both likely and more calamitous than originally thought, I think that the electorate deserve another chance. If they vote for the Brexit Party or Johnson's Tories then that's it.

I'll be honest the simple truth is the British State as the way it's setup could ultimately be on the path to failure simply because of it's design, English ignorance/arrogance is essentially dragging everyone down though not without a sizable help from the more ignorant DUP. The problem as well is the polarization and an essentially inept Corbyn and a chancer like Boris it's shaping up to be the ultimate Political Perfect Storm: a disaster brought about because the worst kinds of people seized control of the state then promptly sink it by driving it into the rocks so they can profit off the carnage. I ultimately see the UK disintegrating and a UI, Scotish Republic and Rump state of little england being the end result, the only hope is that people like yourself who recognise this danger and are being damaged by the ignorance of others are somehow able to get through this mess alright and that the whole lot of these who were to ultimately cause such an unimigated disaster are hung by their political and legal Bollocks in the afternath, I do believe in karma and what goes around must come around eventually.

ambro25

J Mysterio wrote: »

I fail to see how the middle class will be fine? they will be destroyed along with nearly everyone else.

I don't know if they'd be destroyed as such. But they'd certainly be made to pay for it all. As usual.

As a 'middle class' UK taxpayer in 2008-2018, I'm plenty mindful that I was paying for the pre-2008 breakage the entire time.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

robinph wrote: »

Whilst I completely understand the need to just get on with it and tell the UK to go stuff themselves, please remember that the UK population are people too and most don't want any of this.

Thank you. There are plenty of people here who are appalled by this. Then there are the Irish businesses who depend heavily on trade with the UK (Tony Connelly's Brexit & Ireland being an excellent read for anyone interested) and 3 million EU migrants along with plenty of British expats who didn't vote for Brexit.

The property owners, the Shire Tories, the bankers, middle classes et al will be fine. It's the working class who will pay the price. I think people deserve a chance to appraise the revelations of the last three years and to be asked if they are sure they wish to proceed. If so, on their heads be it.

But they have been given ample warnings, and they refuse to listen. Its all bias, pro-EU anti UK traitors. TM was a sell out coward. People are classed as remoainers.

At any if the 3 votes these people could have stood up, particularly the recent EU elections where only 37% bothered to vote. Given the clear dangers one can only assume that those not bothering to vote just don't care.

Whether that is because they are being lied to or just not bothering is a moot point. Lied to 3 years ago but still haven't copped it?

J Mysterio

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Good point. I used to define middle class people as those who own homes, cars and go on a few luxury holidays a year. Those people will be fine. People just starting out with a mortgage or still paying for one will likely be in serious financial difficulty.

I think your definition is more or less ok but even so, I don't think that grouping will necessarily be fine at all.

You might own a home and a car and go on holiday when everything is normal, but if you lose your job and the economy goes to hell... You are not going on holiday and you are struggling to afford the tax, insurance, maintenance and petrol for your car and the equity in your house is going down.

Just because one has a house and a car does not mean they can absorb an economic meltdown. The middle classes are in line for a huge hit if things go south. Many people don't have much in the way of savings and live month to month.

briany

Infini wrote: »

The one thing I will say is the Brexiteer's are really gonna regret forcing a No Deal if they really end up causing one because ultimately while we don't truly want them to leave the moment they do so the gloves come off and they'll truly find themselves finding out how powerless they truly are not to mention any agreement with they EU will likely need the approval of Ireland or be utterly shot down if they cross us expecially if the damage causes us enough hardship.

Noone truly want's this except the Brexiteers but ultimately it's up to the British People to sort out their own country, sadly it seems like everything else in all this Political stupidity and arrogance over there is prevailing in the short term and only a Hard Crushing Reality Check is going to change things, sadly it might end up causing the UK to break up before England finally cops on.

Only the cynical Brexiteers will regret crashing out, i.e. the ones who are heading up Brexit for political power, although I'm sure they're fairly regretting the whole thing already, but it's a little too late to go back.

As for the ordinary Brexiteer - those who've swallowed every bit of rhetoric - the UK could quite literally spontaneously catch on fire the moment the UK leaves, and those folks would say, "Isn't this wonderful? Think of all the money we'll save on heating!"

ambro25

A lot of the middle class in the UK is long back to being over-extended.

murphaph

Sam Russell wrote: »

This was the SoS for Brexit that did not know how close Dover was to Calais, and admitted that he had not read the 38 page Good Friday Agreement that required the backstop - you know, the backstop that was the sticking point in the Brexit negotiations.

I bet he never read the 585 page Withdrawal Agreement either.

He is just plain thick.

And he's a self proclaimed "details man". He's a lawyer apparently. I wouldn't trust him Todo the conveyancing on my house.

Sam Russell

road_high wrote: »

They will do that- there’s a siege mentality this whole thing and BoJo wants to be Churchill the 2nd.

Churchill, having 'won' the second world war (well he had a little (huge) help from Soviet Russia and the USA), he then went on the lose the subsequent general election.

Perhaps Johnson might like to think about a GE after 'winning' No Deal Brexit.