Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

trashcan

robinph wrote: »

Whilst I completely understand the need to just get on with it and tell the UK to go stuff themselves, please remember that the UK population are people too and most don't want any of this.

While I'm sure there are plenty of people in the U.K tearing their hair out at the moment, as a whole it's hard to have much sympathy for them. They voted for this, and I'm far from sure that even with a second referendum they wouldn't do so again.

Quin_Dub

Infini wrote: »

The one thing I will say is the Brexiteer's are really gonna regret forcing a No Deal if they really end up causing one because ultimately while we don't truly want them to leave the moment they do so the gloves come off and they'll truly find themselves finding out how powerless they truly are not to mention any agreement with they EU will likely need the approval of Ireland or be utterly shot down if they cross us expecially if the damage causes us enough hardship.

Noone truly want's this except the Brexiteers but ultimately it's up to the British People to sort out their own country, sadly it seems like everything else in all this Political stupidity and arrogance over there is prevailing in the short term and only a Hard Crushing Reality Check is going to change things, sadly it might end up causing the UK to break up before England finally cops on.



I'll be honest while this could in theory be the start of the real slide to be perfectly honest it's only once the pound starts hitting 95p to the €1 and heads towards parity that we'll know the real effect of Brexit beginning to show that everyone warned them about

This is the bit I don't get about all their talk of new deals.

If they leave without a deal and then come to the table looking for a new deal , do they honestly think they'll get a better deal than the one that's there?

The opening statement from the EU will be "Welcome to the Post-Brexit negotiations , 1st things 1st - We need a cheque for £39B and you need to sort out the Irish border , Thanks"

Lackadaisical

The Sterling instability and weakness has huge implications for the British economy. It's not a simple manufacturing economy, with large local natural resources. It's a complex trading economy, with lots of money made on transactional elements of trade and lots of low margin, high volume type businesses across the economy.

The result of instability is that businesses can't plan and low margin businesses can be wiped out very quickly. They can only really exist in circumstances where they can plan and expect stability

I think this episode will be quite seriously damaging to the UK economy in the medium term. All the talk of weak GBP making them more competitive is really nonsense, unless they're talking about actually winding the clock back to the 1950s and becoming a manufacturing exporter again, which would be a very painful transition. The UK isn't China, but nor is it the US or the Eurozone. Things will get very bouncy and not in a good way.

Economies like that Britain is today need stability to function. This kind of chaos will do horrendous damage. Very few businesses can survive having their input costs fluctuate wildly, nor can they survive an unstable regulatory environment that's operating at the whim of jingoistic politics.

trashcan

Quin_Dub wrote: »

This is the bit I don't get about all their talk of new deals.

If they leave without a deal and then come to the table looking for a new deal , do they honestly think they'll get a better deal than the one that's there?

The opening statement from the EU will be "Welcome to the Post-Brexit negotiations , 1st things 1st - We need a cheque for £39B and you need to sort out the Irish border , Thanks"

I think the expectation is that if they leave with no deal, the EU will be begging them to come back and do a deal, having realised that "they need us more than we need them." Don't see it myself. Amazing that this kind of delusion is still getting serious traction in the U.K.

beggars_bush

VinLieger wrote: »

It is dropping fast the last 2 hours, we very likely will see it drop below its lowest rate in 5 years this week possibly even 10 if it continues like this

Time to buy a car over there before brexit

road_high

trashcan wrote: »

I think the expectation is that if they leave with no deal, the EU will be begging them to come back and do a deal, having realised that "they need us more than we need them." Don't see it myself. Amazing that this kind of delusion is still getting serious traction in the U.K.

I predict the European economy will adapt very quickly as will ours along with it. Maximum use of alternative trading arrangements especially intra EU will fairly quickly replace UK based ones I think. As time ticks on the EU “will need them” less and less. That’s my prediction

VinLieger

road_high wrote: »

I predict the European economy will adapt very quickly as will ours along with it. Maximum use of alternative trading arrangements especially intra EU will fairly quickly replace UK based ones I think. As time ticks on the EU “will need them” less and less. That’s my prediction

This is the other dangerous play for the UK, even if brexit was called off so many businesses have developed new relationships and adjusted their supply chains that many would not feel the need to switch back any time soon, a lot of permanent long term damage has been already done and doesn't have a quick fix

FrancieBrady

Eoghan Harris has lost the plot. He is sounding like an Irish version of Mark Francois on RTE Radio at the moment.

road_high

VinLieger wrote: »

This is the other dangerous play for the UK, even if brexit was called off so many businesses have developed new relationships and adjusted their supply chains that many would not feel the need to switch back any time soon, a lot of permanent long term damage has been already done and doesn't have a quick fix

Historical inertia is one of the biggest reason our food supply chain is so tied to England- it comes from Colonial times whereby they imported all the raw ingredients from the colonies, processed them into higher values and sold them to the rest of us at considerable profit- this is why they fondly love the empire- it was very profitable and protected English industrial interests.
We need to make more use of the wider European market for trading anyhow so this may be the cajoling we need as an economy

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Eoghan Harris has lost the plot. He is sounding like an Irish version of Mark Francois on RTE Radio at the moment.

He always was the Irish version of that kind of idiot - anti everything.

johnnyskeleton

Quin_Dub wrote: »

This is the bit I don't get about all their talk of new deals.

If they leave without a deal and then come to the table looking for a new deal , do they honestly think they'll get a better deal than the one that's there?

The opening statement from the EU will be "Welcome to the Post-Brexit negotiations , 1st things 1st - We need a cheque for £39B and you need to sort out the Irish border , Thanks"

Someone (possibly yourself) has pointed out earlier in the thread that as matters stand, they are negotiating under Article 50 which means that the withdrawal agreement and the future relationship:

"shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council [of the European Union], acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament."

Whereas when the EU is dealing with a third country under Art 216 TFEU, the agreement needs to be ratified by every EU Member State's parliament.

So the very real possibility of one Member State vetoing it e.g. Ireland or France, or indeed any MS who believes they can get a better trade advantage by not signing it, e.g. Denmark, can effectively veto the agreement.

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Eoghan Harris has lost the plot. He is sounding like an Irish version of Mark Francois on RTE Radio at the moment.

I heard him.

Helen McEntee is on now to counter his (ridiculous) points

She points out that the backstop changed form several times at Britain's request

Enzokk

Lemming wrote: »

I am four pages behind, so apologies if this has already been addressed, but I seem to recall from sometime ago that the Australians said that they would wait to see what shape any UK/EU trade arrangements took before considering entering into any notional uture trade deals. A sentiment that I recall generally being echoed by other nations too.

That is very true, the UK has set itself up as a gateway to the EU single market for a lot of companies in other countries as well. So in addition to losing this advantage they will have to negotiate a deal with the EU first before any other serious trade deals will be negotiated.

If they do go for a quickie US deal that allows a lowering of standards from the single market then the deal they will get from the EU will be a basic deal. This would then mean the deal other countries will do with them will be with this in mind, that their access to the EU is just as limited as their own.

Leroy42 wrote: »

But they have been given ample warnings, and they refuse to listen. Its all bias, pro-EU anti UK traitors. TM was a sell out coward. People are classed as remoainers.

At any if the 3 votes these people could have stood up, particularly the recent EU elections where only 37% bothered to vote. Given the clear dangers one can only assume that those not bothering to vote just don't care.

Whether that is because they are being lied to or just not bothering is a moot point. Lied to 3 years ago but still haven't copped it?

I think it is a bit more nuanced than that. What we have seen is that Labour not taking a firm position on remain has meant some of their vote has gone to the Lib Dems but a lot has just not bothered to vote. This would have had an impact and you would assume once it comes to the "serious" elections those will turn out again, either to vote Labour or an alternative if Corbyn is still there.

Sam Russell

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Someone (possibly yourself) has pointed out earlier in the thread that as matters stand, they are negotiating under Article 50 which means that the withdrawal agreement and the future relationship:

"shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council [of the European Union], acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament."

Whereas when the EU is dealing with a third country under Art 216 TFEU, the agreement needs to be ratified by every EU Member State's parliament.

So the very real possibility of one Member State vetoing it e.g. Ireland or France, or indeed any MS who believes they can get a better trade advantage by not signing it, e.g. Denmark, can effectively veto the agreement.

The WA has been ratified by the Council and by the Parliament.

MrMusician18

beggars_bush wrote: »

Time to buy a car over there before brexit

It will be one way traffic with cars rolling off the boats before Oct 31st, if this weakness is sustained.

192 might not be a great year for the motor garages

Enzokk

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

So the very real possibility of one Member State vetoing it e.g. Ireland or France, or indeed any MS who believes they can get a better trade advantage by not signing it, e.g. Denmark, can effectively veto the agreement.

Don't forget the regional parliaments as well, e.g. Wallonia holding up a recent trade deal to have their concerns addressed.

A Dub in Glasgo

Johnson turns up to Scotland today and goes directly to Faslane Nuclear Naval base just outside Glasgow for some reason. He then arrives at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh to some protesters, I don't think he will be doing the rounds with the public

https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/1155847499262976000

J Mysterio

Quin_Dub wrote: »

This is the bit I don't get about all their talk of new deals.

If they leave without a deal and then come to the table looking for a new deal , do they honestly think they'll get a better deal than the one that's there?

The opening statement from the EU will be "Welcome to the Post-Brexit negotiations , 1st things 1st - We need a cheque for £39B and you need to sort out the Irish border , Thanks"

That is precisely what Raab has been saying!

“The prospect of reverting and getting a good deal will be easier after we have left if that is the case. The reason being we do as an independent third country and less subject to effectively the demands of the EU as we are now.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/29/dominic-raab-uk-will-be-better-able-to-negotiate-with-eu-after-no-deal-brexit

KildareP

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Eoghan Harris has lost the plot. He is sounding like an Irish version of Mark Francois on RTE Radio at the moment.

He has a bit of a habit of rallying against popular opinion, often completely contradicting his own in a very short space of time.

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

Well the first crack is Johnson contradicting what Gove said yesterday. Gove said No Deal was likely but Johnson says today it's a million to one shot.

“Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten.”
- Terry Pratchett, Equal Rites

Bergholt Stuttley Johnson would know that.

Stop moaning ffs

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

“Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten.”
- Terry Pratchett, Equal Rites

Bergholt Stuttley Johnson would know that.

Wish he was still with us for his take on all this.

Might need to re read the Jingo one. He might have covered it already

VinLieger

They had Peter Lilley on Sky News lying through his teeth just now, the whole "its not No deal because weve already done all these mini deals" garbage and banging on about how sometimes you have to wait when boarding or disembarking ferries cus theres delays so it wont be that big a problem. Also that people in the civil service saying they werent ready were lying to frighten the previous ministers into voting for Mays deal, as well as any business saying they werent ready or that the new costs would put them out of business were actually just lying too.

The beautiful irony of all of it was him giving the interview from his palatial holiday home in France.

dresden8

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That was unexpected. People already asking why the money isn’t put to better use but this is still odd. Thought it was going to be glorious and so easy?
Apparently not

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1155589617569214465?s=21

It's always back to WW2.

Beechwoodspark

KildareP wrote: »

He has a bit of a habit of rallying against popular opinion, often completely contradicting his own in a very short space of time.

His schtick is to take “unpopular” positions then flog the bejasus out of it for years

FrancieBrady

lawred2 wrote: »

Anti everything Irish

The archetypal west Brit

Totally incoherent. Had his little anti-Irish rant but had no solutions except go cap in hand to England, muttering apologies is how I heard him anyhow.

Stop moaning ffs

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

His schtick is to take “unpopular” positions then flog the bejasus out of it for years

But we have an Ian O Doherty already.

road_high

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Totally incoherent. Had his little anti-Irish rant but had no solutions except go cap in hand to England, muttering apologies is how I heard him anyhow.

I’m not Leo Varadkars biggest fan but he has steel when it comes to dealing with this lot. He won’t fold on the backstop or go cap in hand to these arrogant gob****es nor would the public want him to

Sam Russell

Sterling continuing to test 10 year lows.

91.187 p to the €1.

93.521 p was achieved briefly in late Sept 2009, and then only briefly.

lawred2

Varadkar is no doubt delighted that the likes of Eoghan Harris are coming out with this nonsense. Vast majority of Irish people would do their utmost to not be on the same side as Harris on almost any matter.

Seth Brundle

Looks like the two leaders of Britain and Ireland will finally get to chat before the week is out...
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/moves-under-way-to-arrange-first-varadkar-johnson-call-1.3970863