Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

fly_agaric

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He's not a TD...he's an opinion journalist. A Joe Brolly/Eamonn Dunphy style professional controversialist.

He's a senator I think, the wise elder statesmen, democratic checks and balances etc etc:pac:

edit: google tells me he's not any more...sorry!

L1011

fly_agaric wrote: »

He's a senator I think, the wise elder statesmen, democratic checks and balances etc etc:pac:

edit: google tells me he's not any more...sorry!

Nominated by Bertie. And he uses to be a hardline socialist. Some change over a decade and a half and he's changed again since

Foghladh

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

But there is no Executive in place in NI at the moment.

I’d love to know who is in charge of this billion though!

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/government/confidence-and-supply-northern-irelands-1-billion/

According to this a little under half had been drawn down already and this was dated Nov of last year. It's a Billion In extra funding

J Mysterio

Interesting that this man felt moved to make the below tweet. He would rub shoulders with these fellows.
 
https://twitter.com/davidyelland/status/1155890580884512770
David Yelland is a former journalist and editor of The Sun and founder of Kitchen Table Partners, a specialist public relations and communications company in London, which he formed in 2015 after leaving the Brunswick Group LLP. 
Wikipedia

mcmoustache

fly_agaric wrote: »

He's a senator I think, the wise elder statesmen, democratic checks and balances etc etc:pac:

edit: google tells me he's not any more...sorry!

If my memory is working correctly, he was a big cheerleader for Bertie in his think-pieces for the Indo. He would praise Bertie's genius with regard to his handling of the economy and was rewarded with a Senate nomination just before everything went tits-up for his brown-nosed sniveling sycophancy.

BobbyBobberson

The most telling image from Brexiteers is the constant harping on how Ireland have overplayed their hand. Constant shrieking saying the EU will blink or Ireland have been played, all this coming from the likes of Kate Hoey etc.

They have ****ed it, the UK will hit a No Deal Brexit or will blink and either way its a **** show for them.

Joe_ Public

I keep saying this, but i think it's a mistake to engage them. Let them chunter and chuff their way to oblivion if they want to get their kicks that way. There's going to be a long campaign directed against Varadkar and its going to be nasty, the "undemocratic backstop" sounds like a Dominic Cummings creation and they're going to repeat that at least a billion times so that it almost becomes a self-evident truth. So let them off i say. We should stick to the Michelle Obama stay high while they go low mantra. The EU and the US democrats have our backs and truth is on our side too. I still have faith we'll end up alright when all this blows over.

briany

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

The most telling image from Brexiteers is the constant harping on how Ireland have overplayed their hand. Constant shrieking saying the EU will blink or Ireland have been played, all this coming from the likes of Kate Hoey etc.

They have ****ed it, the UK will hit a No Deal Brexit or will blink and either way its a **** show for them.

If you're a committed Brexiter, you haven't got a whole lot of choice but to believe Ireland will blink.

Mancomb Seepgood

L1011 wrote: »

Nominated by Bertie. And he uses to be a hardline socialist. Some change over a decade and a half and he's changed again since

He described himself as a "Stalinist" in the 70s and 80s,moved to Fine Gael in the early 90s,then became an advisor and supporter to David Trimble,a neoconservative and backer of the Iraq war in the noughties,before ending up with a Fianna Fail nomination for Senator.I fully expect he will shortly end up in Sinn Fein while writing articles in the Sindo about his own courage in doing so.He's a political chameleon who hasn't been relevant in decades.

BobbyBobberson

I have to say, I am surprised there was not more of a stink kicked off about them Brexit documentaries behind the EU negotiating committee. Maybe it is because the British looked so bloody daft in a lot of they let it slide.

BobbyBobberson

briany wrote: »

If you're a committed Brexiter, you haven't got a whole lot of choice but to believe Ireland will blink.

Indeed. Do non of them play this all out in their heads? "OK so we leave on a hard brexit, free trade deal is blocked by US sentate and EU demand backstop to restart talks". Its bizarre.

Logically thinking brexiteers would have taken the WA and slowly tried to push themselves further and further away from the EU.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

I’ve been shocked at two dinners recently when Tories of influence have told me privately “Varadkar isn’t bright”

Degree in medicine from Trinity College and addressed the European Parliament in fluent French and German last year

lawred2

Strazdas wrote: »

Degree in medicine from Trinity College and addressed the European Parliament in fluent French and German last year

Clearly not very bright at all..

briany

Strazdas wrote: »

Degree in medicine from Trinity College and addressed the European Parliament in fluent French and German last year

Brexiters would see Leo as the goody two shoes who always brings an apple to class for the head of the EU Council while the UK is the rugby star who sits down the back giving cheek and not doing homework, in the belief that it's too important to the institution to feel the consequences.

J Mysterio

Nicola Sturgeon's comments rather interesting following her meeting with Boris today.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1155927401773379586

Headshot

J Mysterio wrote: »

Interesting that this man felt moved to make the below tweet. He would rub shoulders with these fellows.
 
https://twitter.com/davidyelland/status/1155890580884512770
David Yelland is a former journalist and editor of The Sun and founder of Kitchen Table Partners, a specialist public relations and communications company in London, which he formed in 2015 after leaving the Brunswick Group LLP. 
Wikipedia

Is this surprising? The English political class have always been like this. They still threat Ireland in contempt and still feel like Ireland "should know their place"

This political class still believe they are a super power and they still have that mentality of a bygone era but they are just a small island in the grand scheme of things will never be what they were.

They were part of something much bigger than themselves but threw it away.

I'm delighted how our Government are handling Brexit and standing up to bullies.

Stop moaning ffs

It’s mad they’re targeting Leo for abuse.

A Thatcherite down to his bones. Had his parents made a slightly different decision he could easily be the Tory PM of the UK right now.

If only the media over there knew

hometruths

I don’t think for a minute Johnson wants us or the EU to blink on the backstop.

I made a lengthy post a couple of weeks back that Johnson’s best strategy was an election campaign on hard Brexit, win a majority and get rid of DUP.

Everything he has done since becoming PM confirms my belief of this, except rather than call the election himself I think his current turbo charged no deal Brexit bluster is designed to force parliaments hand into a a no confidence vote and a subsequent election.

Then he can campaign on “the undemocratic EU and undemocratic HoC stopping me delivering the will of the people, give me a majority and I will damn well show the EU who is boss” etc etc.

He stands a good chance of winning that majority, at which stage he can say “thanks DUP, you’re a great bunch, but the customs border is going down the Irish Sea”

He’ll be able to spin this to the Great British public as a massive win and they’ll lap it up, perfectly ignorant to the fact that this was offered to the UK and rejected in the first place.

Enzokk

Strazdas wrote: »

Degree in medicine from Trinity College and addressed the European Parliament in fluent French and German last year

Yeah...but can he memorize his speech like David Davis can?

I am beginning to wonder if there is a master plan by Johnson and his team or if they actually believe their bluff. I guess they will be forced to look weak, unlikely, or will have to go through with no-deal. I cannot see however how Johnson is able to continue his attacks against the EU and the deal but back it just because he has a majority. So it seems to me that whatever, no-deal will happen.

This may be stopped if Corbyn forces a no-confidence vote and it forces an election, but I would not be surprised if Corbyn delays it so Brexit happens before an election so he tries to wash his hands from the effects.

J Mysterio

If there must be a Brexit, the sea border is the ideal solution. And it does seem like this might be Boris plan. But if it actually is, that is really some next level machiavellian sh1t. He would essentially be treating Westminster, the EU and the entire UK and EU population as complete mugs. It would be the biggest bluff of all time, and would rest on variables outside his control.

Once achieved he would have Brexit, Ireland and the EU would be placated, and he would have a majority for a few years: the hero who delivered Brexit. But if it doesnt go according to plan? He would be the man who destroyed the UK.

briany

schmittel wrote: »

I don’t think for a minute Johnson wants us or the EU to blink on the backstop.

I made a lengthy post a couple of weeks back that Johnson’s best strategy was an election campaign on hard Brexit, win a majority and get rid of DUP.

Everything he has done since becoming PM confirms my belief of this, except rather than call the election himself I think his current turbo charged no deal Brexit bluster is designed to force parliaments hand into a a no confidence vote and a subsequent election.

Then he can campaign on “the undemocratic EU and undemocratic HoC stopping me delivering the will of the people, give me a majority and I will damn well show the EU who is boss” etc etc.

He stands a good chance of winning that majority, at which stage he can say “thanks DUP, you’re a great bunch, but the customs border is going down the Irish Sea”

He’ll be able to spin this to the Great British public as a massive win and they’ll lap it up, perfectly ignorant to the fact that this was offered to the UK and rejected in the first place.

He won't be able to win a majority without doing a deal with the Brexit Party, IMO. I don't see the Conservatives winning an outright majority. If they couldn't win a majority in 2017 before Brexit really bloomed into the clusterf**k it's become, I fail to see how they get one now. You'd wonder whether A) some of the public haven't changed their minds on Brexit and if others have lost faith in the Conservatives to deliver Brexit, or their sincerity in really wanting it, hence the Brexit Party getting some seats. It's not as if Boris has suddenly united the Conservatives in pursuing Brexit. The party still has its rebels, and a party at war with itself isn't exactly in a great position to be winning an election.

But that said, a Brexit party coalition with either Con or Lab would still be a more realistic route to getting the backstop deal through, come the crunch. I just don't know if there's even going to be time to have a GE if Corbyn delays his VNC bid until the Autumn.

BluePlanet

There is another possibility:
They use the NI border as a wedge issue to try and pry us out of the EU.

Long view: to hurt the EU and cut it down to size, also render us a vassal state of the UK.

BobbyBobberson

J Mysterio wrote: »

If there must be a Brexit, the sea border is the ideal solution. And it does seem like this might be Boris plan. But if it actually is, that is really some next level machiavellian sh1t. He would essentially be treating Westminster, the EU and the entire UK and EU population as complete mugs. It would be the biggest bluff of all time, and would rest on variables outside his control.

The sea border would have been fine and an absolute gift for NI. Instead May decided to call an election urged on by Timothy and Hill. As I have said before, there have been so many sliding door moments over the past number of years but this election must be the main one.

Water John

Corbyn will go for a no confidence vote in October. If HOC hasn't put in place some type of legislation instructing, in some way, that No Deal is off the table, then he will have the support of some Tory MPs. That support will only be forthcoming as a last resort, but Lb will run with it, absolutely sure of that.

FrancieBrady

BluePlanet wrote: »

There is another possibility:
They use the NI border as a wedge issue to try and pry us out of the EU.

How?

BobbyBobberson

BluePlanet wrote: »

There is another possibility:
They use the NI border as a wedge issue to try and pry us out of the EU.

That wont last long as an issue. Just simply would not happen.

VinLieger

BluePlanet wrote: »

There is another possibility:
They use the NI border as a wedge issue to try and pry us out of the EU.

Would require a referendum and considering we are one of the most pro EU countries currently with it sitting around 90% that's not likely to happen

DOCARCH

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

The sea border would have been fine and an absolute gift for NI. Instead May decided to call an election urged on by Timothy and Hill.

IIRC the sea border/NI only backstop was post election.

Nearly got past...TM in Brussels ready for sign off....at the 11th hour DUP put an end to it.

Laois_Man

Tory’s + Brexit don’t just need a majority, they need a significant msjority.

Don’t forget, Teresa May had a majority before the 2017 election and still couldn’t achieve anything!

J Mysterio

briany wrote: »

He won't be able to win a majority without doing a deal with the Brexit Party, IMO. I don't see the Conservatives winning an outright majority. If they couldn't win a majority in 2017 before Brexit really bloomed into the clusterf**k it's become, I fail to see how they get one now. You'd wonder whether A) some of the public haven't changed their minds on Brexit and if others have lost faith in the Conservatives to deliver Brexit, or their sincerity in really wanting it, hence the Brexit Party getting some seats. It's not as if Boris has suddenly united the Conservatives in pursuing Brexit. The party still has its rebels, and a party at war with itself isn't exactly in a great position to be winning an election.

But that said, a Brexit party coalition with either Con or Lab would still be a more realistic route to getting the backstop deal through, come the crunch. I just don't know if there's even going to be time to have a GE if Corbyn delays his VNC bid until the Autumn.

The point is Boris is going more hardline than the Brexit Part now- he is saying he wont even sit down with EU leaders unless they agree first to reopen the WA. He is setting preconditions to meet while there are open invites from Macron and Merkel that he is snubbing.

If he maintains that position and Parliament go to a GE to avoid the No Deal he says he is prepared for, he will hoover up the Brexit Party no mark seats. The most hardass Brexiteer of them all!

This seems to be what people think 'the Cummings strategy' is. It is so very outlandish though.