Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BobbyBobberson · 29-07-2019 10:20pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

IIRC the sea border/NI only backstop was post election.

Nearly got past...TM in Brussels ready for sign off....at the 11th hour DUP put an end to it.

Yup, correct. Had the sea border suggestion came up as a suggestion (in the parallel universe of no election) then I think it would have been fine. Tories would happily dump NI for Brexit.

Yes it was all ready to go but TM had not cleared it with DUP first which is an incredibly dim thing to do.

BluePlanet · 29-07-2019 10:22pm

Let me paint you a dark picture:

They intentionally sabotage our "commitment" to the Customs Union and Single Market by smuggling prohibited food stuffs (bovine growth hormones or cholorinated chicken) into mainland Europe via the NI border.

France and Germany and others are appalled and are compelled to place checks on goods and produce from Ireland, or even bans, due to the mounting impracticability and political poison of policing the border here.

fqollere · 29-07-2019 10:26pm

BluePlanet wrote: »

Let me paint you a dark picture:

They intentionally sabotage our "commitment" to the Customs Union and Single Market by smuggling prohibited food stuffs (bovine growth hormones or cholorinated chicken) into mainland Europe via the NI border.

France and Germany and others are appalled and are compelled to place checks on goods and produce from Ireland, or even bans, due to the mounting impracticability and political poison of policing the border here.

Is that the Trump Chicken?

It comes over with the new us-uk deal and onto us

J Mysterio · 29-07-2019 10:28pm

Guardian for tomorrow
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'May you live in interesting times' they say.

Nate--IRL-- · 29-07-2019 10:29pm

BluePlanet wrote: »

Let me paint you a dark picture:

No need. If it is No Deal, there will be a border. End of story.

Nate

Tell me how · 29-07-2019 10:32pm

The BBC covered Johnson's visit to Scotland today.

There were several thousand comments on the piece.

Interestingly and unsurprisingly, the top rated comment (which suggested abandoning Brexit) had 1568 up-votes but also 1149 down-votes making it the most down voted comment as well. It is a deeply divided society and will likely remain that way for a long time.

Enzokk · 29-07-2019 10:34pm

For those Labour MPs that somehow still want Brexit but want workers rights protected, here we go.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1155936177620283392?s=20

Seems like the cutting of workers rights is on the cards, who would have seen that?

Water John wrote: »

Corbyn will go for a no confidence vote in October. If HOC hasn't put in place some type of legislation instructing, in some way, that No Deal is off the table, then he will have the support of some Tory MPs. That support will only be forthcoming as a last resort, but Lb will run with it, absolutely sure of that.

There isn't a lot of time to call it though, to ensure that a new government is either in charge before the 31st October to either revoke or request an extension. Obviously if Johnson wins on a no-deal platform then it doesn't matter either way.

Remember, legally the UK is out of the EU unless there is a deal agreed or an extension. The legal process doesn't get stopped for an election and only the PM can request an extension.

Sam Russell · 29-07-2019 10:37pm

BluePlanet wrote: »

Let me paint you a dark picture:

They intentionally sabotage our "commitment" to the Customs Union and Single Market by smuggling prohibited food stuffs (bovine growth hormones or cholorinated chicken) into mainland Europe via the NI border.

France and Germany and others are appalled and are compelled to place checks on goods and produce from Ireland, or even bans, due to the mounting impracticability and political poison of policing the border here.

I think that is more foil hat territory.

There are breaches of EU regulations all over the EU. Reports from Poland of sick cows being put into the food chain, for example.

The EU uses market surveillance to keep track of such breaches. Now unless these dark forces can keep their dark deeds secret but persistant, then it will not work. We uncovered the'Horse Meat' scandal, so I doubt it would work.

joe40 · 29-07-2019 10:39pm

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

No need. If it is No Deal, there will be a border. End of story.

Nate

Absolutely, in a no deal scenario border checks will be required to ensure integrity of EU standards. Also how will Britain be able to say they have control of their borders if there is an open land border with the EU.

briany · 29-07-2019 10:42pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

The point is Boris is going more hardline than the Brexit Part now- he is saying he wont even sit down with EU leaders unless they agree first to reopen the WA. He is setting preconditions to meet while there are open invites from Macron and Merkel that he is snubbing.

If he maintains that position and Parliament go to a GE to avoid the No Deal he says he is prepared for, he will hoover up the Brexit Party no mark seats. The most hardass Brexiteer of them all!

This seems to be what people think 'the Cummings strategy' is. It is so very outlandish though.

The majority of Conservatives would prefer a deal to no deal. A majority of the party backed May's deal, for example. The Conservatives are now headed up by someone who at least paints themselves as a hard-line Brexit supporter, but that doesn't change the voting record, and the way the wind seems to be blowing is that the wishes of MPs is drifting away from the wishes of the party's grassroots support. That's a key 'in' for the Brexit Party to say such and such local Conservative MP is weak on Brexit, especially in constituencies that voted majority leave. With the Lib Dems and Brexit Party potentially nicking seats from disenfranchised LAB and CON voters, it remains hard for me to see either party getting an outright majority.

joe40 wrote: »

Absolutely, in a no deal scenario border checks will be required to ensure integrity of EU standards. Also how will Britain be able to say they have control of their borders if there is an open land border with the EU.

This is going to sound cynical, but I don't believe Brexit supporters are particularly concerned about people crossing into the UK over the Irish border. They want to keep out all the Eastern Europeans and all those 'dreadful brown people' coming in over the Dover-Calais route.

hometruths · 29-07-2019 10:42pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

The point is Boris is going more hardline than the Brexit Part now- he is saying he wont even sit down with EU leaders unless they agree first to reopen the WA. He is setting preconditions to meet while there are open invites from Macron and Merkel that he is snubbing.

If he maintains that position and Parliament go to a GE to avoid the No Deal he says he is prepared for, he will hoover up the Brexit Party no mark seats. The most hardass Brexiteer of them all!

This seems to be what people think 'the Cummings strategy' is. It is so very outlandish though.

Exactly if he carries on as he is the Brexit party votes are all his, and as long as gets those he is golden.

The Tory remain vote will go to Lib Dems probably.
The rest of the remain vote is fragmented - Labour, Lib Dems, Green Plaid - none will have enough to combat a concentrated leave vote

What Cummings will understand better than most is that Brexit is not a left/right issue, and the important strategy in winning an election on the issue is the clarity of the stance. In a Fptp election that is essentially being fought on a binary issue that clarity will gain a majority as long as the other side if the question is fragmented.

Sam Russell · 29-07-2019 10:44pm

Enzokk wrote: »

There isn't a lot of time to call it though, to ensure that a new government is either in charge before the 31st October to either revoke or request an extension. Obviously if Johnson wins on a no-deal platform then it doesn't matter either way.

Remember, legally the UK is out of the EU unless there is a deal agreed or an extension. The legal process doesn't get stopped for an election and only the PM can request an extension.

Well, to call a GE under the FTPA needs a two thirds majority in the HoC. To elect a new PM just requires a simple majority. Now if Corbyn can curb his ambition to be PM, and joins with anti Brexit like minds, a Gov on National Unity could put the Brexit into history for ever. The could put Art 50 into the same regulation as the FTPA - it requires a two thirds majority.

29-07-2019 10:47pm

I can bizarrely see it from Boris' perspective. What's the point in having meetings where you're going to say, "can we talk about the wa"? And the reply is, "no. It's already agreed".

Talks can only go so far

Foghladh · 29-07-2019 10:48pm

BluePlanet wrote: »

Let me paint you a dark picture:

They intentionally sabotage our "commitment" to the Customs Union and Single Market by smuggling prohibited food stuffs (bovine growth hormones or cholorinated chicken) into mainland Europe via the NI border.

France and Germany and others are appalled and are compelled to place checks on goods and produce from Ireland, or even bans, due to the mounting impracticability and political poison of policing the border here.

I did overtake a Bernard Matthews truck heading up the M20 yesterday and I swear there was a whiff of bleach in the air. You may well be on to something!

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-07-2019 10:53pm

Johnson left the First Minister of Scotlands official residence by the back door when she challenged him to a live debate on Indyref2 and he was booed on the way in

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1155939519738208256

VinLieger · 29-07-2019 11:04pm

Enzokk wrote: »

For those Labour MPs that somehow still want Brexit but want workers rights protected, here we go.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1155936177620283392?s=20

Seems like the cutting of workers rights is on the cards, who would have seen that?

This is something i cannot comprehend about Corbyn and his followers who are pro brexit, yes a brexit on their terms might lead to them creating a socialist paradise but what happens when inevitably the tories win the following election and boot them out of power? Everything they built is stripped and destroyed because the EU is no longer there to protect them.

Are they honestly so naive as to believe if they got into power and were outside of the EU so they could Implement their dream socialist paradise to such an extent,that a right wing government could never get elected again?

It just boggles the mind the short sightedness of corbyn et al to want out of the EU.

Capt'n Midnight · 29-07-2019 11:04pm

Enzokk wrote: »

For those Labour MPs that somehow still want Brexit but want workers rights protected, here we go.

Here we go indeed

Workers at Harland and Wolff have closed the shipyard's gates ... demanded Boris Johnson's government renationalise the yard and saves their jobs

asteroids over berlin · 29-07-2019 11:06pm

Let the UK burn, they are playing a dangerous game, last roll of the dice, stakes are high. Stand up to them. Lets take the risk, we will recover. It will be glorious when Boris and the boys run for cover at the last minute

hometruths · 29-07-2019 11:06pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

If there must be a Brexit, the sea border is the ideal solution. And it does seem like this might be Boris plan. But if it actually is, that is really some next level machiavellian sh1t. He would essentially be treating Westminster, the EU and the entire UK and EU population as complete mugs. It would be the biggest bluff of all time, and would rest on variables outside his control.

Once achieved he would have Brexit, Ireland and the EU would be placated, and he would have a majority for a few years: the hero who delivered Brexit. But if it doesnt go according to plan? He would be the man who destroyed the UK.

It’s not that Machiavellian. It’s pragmatic in the face of very few other options.

Essentially it’s a case of who blinks first:

1) Leo offers a concession on the border - win for Johnson, “I’ve put the Irish back in their box, they know their place” etc
2) EU cave on the backstop and ask Ireland to take one for the team - win for Johnson - “I’ve put the Irish and the Eu back in their box”
3) Parliament win a vote of no confidence - he can fight an election as champion of democracy.
4) none of the above - Boris blinks at last minute and asks for extension on basis of GenerL election, not as strong as having his hand forced but he can spin it.

All of the above are better than a continuation of Mays struggle with the parliamentary arithmetic.

If he is truly being Machiavellian his strategy might actually be to scare the DUP - “it’s ok Arlene, we’ve got your back, and it will be no deal before we’ll let you down”

maybe he thinks Arlene will blink first and realize tht no deal will hasten a United Ireland, and she will say “actually Boris, give us another billion and put the border in the Irish Sea”

mcmoustache · 29-07-2019 11:20pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Here we go indeed

Workers at Harland and Wolff have closed the shipyard's gates ... demanded Boris Johnson's government renationalise the yard and saves their jobs

Good luck with that. For nationalisations, what they really need is a Corbyn and that Corbyn would need to also be a prime minister.

woohoo!!! · 29-07-2019 11:28pm

All the focus on the show in London suits the EU and Ireland down to the ground. They themselves are formenting ever greater dissatisfaction with where the UK is going. They're flat out saying that Scotland and Northern Ireland can get lost, we're having our Brexit/empire nostalgia moment. The solution is indeed a border in the Irish sea and you can be sure that Ireland and the EU have prepared or are polishing off preparations for every eventuality. It's only a matter of time that Northern Ireland clamours to escape the madhouse.

J Mysterio · 29-07-2019 11:29pm

Enzokk wrote: »

For those Labour MPs that somehow still want Brexit but want workers rights protected, here we go.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1155936177620283392?s=20.

That's a great cover. Sturgeon literally did a hatchet job on him. Couldn't have happened to a more deserving person.

Call me Al · 29-07-2019 11:33pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I can bizarrely see it from Boris' perspective. What's the point in having meetings where you're going to say, "can we talk about the wa"? And the reply is, "no. It's already agreed".

Talks can only go so far

He can't be seen to traipse across the channel again for another humiliating walk of shame home with nothing gained.
He's a brinkmanship fan, and said as much on rte when he was interviewed in Dublin earlier this year.

BobbyBobberson · 29-07-2019 11:33pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

That's a great cover. Sturgeon literally did a hatchet job on him. Couldn't have happened to a more deserving person.

She did indeed, and rightly so. UK promised Scotland they would remain part of the EU and that went well.

fqollere · 29-07-2019 11:36pm

Call me Al wrote: »

He can't be seen to traipse across the channel again for another humiliating walk of shame home with nothing gained.
He's a brinkmanship fan, and said as much on rte when he was interviewed in Dublin earlier this year.

I don't see the brinkmanship?

Call me Al · 29-07-2019 11:44pm

schmittel wrote: »

It’s not that Machiavellian. It’s pragmatic in the face of very few other options.

Essentially it’s a case of who blinks first:

1) Leo offers a concession on the border - win for Johnson, “I’ve put the Irish back in their box, they know their place” etc
2) EU cave on the backstop and ask Ireland to take one for the team - win for Johnson - “I’ve put the Irish and the Eu back in their box”
3) Parliament win a vote of no confidence - he can fight an election as champion of democracy.
4) none of the above - Boris blinks at last minute and asks for extension on basis of GenerL election, not as strong as having his hand forced but he can spin it.

All of the above are better than a continuation of Mays struggle with the parliamentary arithmetic.

If he is truly being Machiavellian his strategy might actually be to scare the DUP - “it’s ok Arlene, we’ve got your back, and it will be no deal before we’ll let you down”

maybe he thinks Arlene will blink first and realize tht no deal will hasten a United Ireland, and she will say “actually Boris, give us another billion and put the border in the Irish Sea”

The one person who i would feel pretty certain won't blink at all is Arlene Foster, and her party. There is no game for her. It's a "whole of UK" approach or its nothing with no deal because her electorate will not vote for anyone else once their union is seen to be maintained by them That trumps absolutely everything, and the rest of the NI electorate doesn't matter. It also doesn't matter that the medium/long-term consequences will destroy them. They aren't thinking that far ahead.

Call me Al · 29-07-2019 11:46pm

fqollere wrote: »

I don't see the brinkmanship?

I mean that he is going to drag this out until the last minute.

hometruths · 30-07-2019 12:00am

Call me Al wrote: »

The one person who i would feel pretty certain won't blink at all is Arlene Foster, and her party. There is no game for her. It's a "whole of UK" approach or its nothing with no deal because her electorate will not vote for anyone else once their union is seen to be maintained by them That trumps absolutely everything, and the rest of the NI electorate doesn't matter. It also doesn't matter that the medium/long-term consequences will destroy them. They aren't thinking that far ahead.

I was reading about the PLaid/Lib Dems pact in the Breton byelection and it got me thinking that the DUP ought to be very vulnerable to tactical voting in a general election.

If the Lib Dems could go into NI on a on a remain campaign, and say forget about Nationalist/unionist for just one election, punish the DUP for what they have done here, they could do well.

given that this is an area that the anti-DUP electorate votes in MPs in the full knowledge they will not take their seats you’d think some of them might lend their votes elsewhere in just one election!

Shelga · 30-07-2019 12:08am

Why did Labour and others ever vote to agree to hold the referendum? Genuine question.

And why did they vote to trigger article 50, without a plan? The Tories are mostly responsible for this mess, but any MP who voted for either of these things has to have some accountability as well.

Call me Al · 30-07-2019 12:12am

schmittel wrote: »

I was reading about the PLaid/Lib Dems pact in the Breton byelection and it got me thinking that the DUP ought to be very vulnerable to tactical voting in a general election.

If the Lib Dems could go into NI on a on a remain campaign, and say forget about Nationalist/unionist for just one election, punish the DUP for what they have done here, they could do well.

given that this is an area that the anti-DUP electorate votes in MPs in the full knowledge they will not take their seats you’d think some of them might lend their votes elsewhere in just one election!

"...say forget about Nationalist/unionist for just one election..." ??? LOL
It's practically a genetic condition. And the behaviour of the Tories over this past three years has done nothing more than make each side more entrenched.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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