Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

J Mysterio

I can't quite believe what I am reading here.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1155882827927425024

This is mad how we are casually being mentioned as a potential victim here.

Lackadaisical

It could also end up completely backfiring and throwing the UK deal with the US into absolute chaos. I don't think they UK media fully realises that's a possibility.

Strazdas

Shelga wrote: »

Why did Labour and others ever vote to agree to hold the referendum? Genuine question.

And why did they vote to trigger article 50, without a plan? The Tories are mostly responsible for this mess, but any MP who voted for either of these things has to have some accountability as well.

Everyone bought into the "will of the people" nonsense. The supposed instruction from the public trumped everything : logic, commonsense, lack of planning etc

The atmosphere in the nine months after the referendum was toxic. The right wing rags were calling anyone who disagreed with the referendum result a "traitor".

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

I can't quite believe what I am reading here.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1155882827927425024

This is mad how we are casually being mentioned as a potential victim here.

This is very good from Faisal, one of the best theories I've heard about what Johnson is up to in the last week or so. As he says though, it's incredibly high risk and there's a danger things could spiral out of Johnson's control

Bit cynical

Shelga wrote: »

Why did Labour and others ever vote to agree to hold the referendum? Genuine question.

And why did they vote to trigger article 50, without a plan? The Tories are mostly responsible for this mess, but any MP who voted for either of these things has to have some accountability as well.

They also voted against the deal May negotiated with the EU which means we'll most likely have a hard border after the current extension runs out.

J Mysterio

Strazdas wrote: »

This is very good from Faisal, one of the best theories I've heard about what Johnson is up to in the last week or so. As he says though, it's incredibly high risk and there's a danger things could spiral out of Johnson's control

I thought it a poor theory myself. I thought we ourselves had already nailed it.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

I thought it a poor theory myself. I thought we ourselves had already nailed it.

There is zero chance it would succeed though. Ireland caving in on the backstop would be a massive setback for the Irish Govt and the EU.

BobbyBobberson

From the article

"If he can also convey a sense of parliamentary unity behind his position, he should be able to force the EU into compromise -- that is, the EU agreeing to a multi-stage process that combines a formal Brexit on Oct. 31 with various transitional agreements to minimize the risks of a disorderly exit process."

What a load of piss. The EU have kept the same line for three years now, they have their set position and to be honest why would they change when the lunatics are running the asylum. The EU project is much more important than the UK as a whole. They will not throw Ireland under the bus, neither will they allow the UK to cherry pick.

fqollere

Talk radio LBC discussion

Why does Boris Johnson continue to be so inflexible?

hill16bhoy

Irish public opinion will ultimately decide whether our Government folds under British pressure as regards the backstop.

Prepare for a full blown propaganda campaign with bots attempting to run riot.

I don't think it'll work and I think it'll probably have the opposite effect to what is intended, i) because most Irish people who are online are wise to this sort of carry on and ii) because most people are not on Twitter.

One thing Britain doesn't really understand about the mentality of most Irish people is that there are huge colonial overtones to the pressure they are trying to put on the Irish Government - if there's one thing we're deeply hostile to, it's our former colonial master trying to bully and blackmail us.

Bit cynical

fqollere wrote: »

Talk radio LBC discussion

Why does Boris Johnson continue to be so inflexible?

He can't reopen negotiations on a deal because any deal acceptable to parliament is not acceptable to the EU and vice versa.

reslfj

VinLieger wrote: »

... "its not No deal because weve already done all these mini deals"....

"all these deals" = EU's planned unitaerally actions the help (only) EU citizens and companies.

Maybe we - in the EU27 - should not mitigate anything at all post Brexit date. If the UK refuses to understand, people in the UK better feel everything hard and full - from day 1.

I.E. No UK long haul lorries within the EU27, no flights to/from the EU27 , no EURATOM, no radioactive medicine, no..., no ...

From Brexit day 1

Lars

Foghladh

Shelga wrote: »

Why did Labour and others ever vote to agree to hold the referendum? Genuine question.

And why did they vote to trigger article 50, without a plan? The Tories are mostly responsible for this mess, but any MP who voted for either of these things has to have some accountability as well.

Because they thought the majority would be in favour of remaining in the EU, put simply. Nick Clegg did a Guardian piece as the leader of the Lib Dems 10 years ago calling for the Under 50s to have their voice. It was supposed to lance the boil of Euroscepticism and expose it as the most minority. It didn't work out very well.

woohoo!!!

Several comentators in the UK pointing out now that the whole strategy is based on the EU blinking, particularly Dublin. However, whilst the EU always tries to move to ensure unity with it's members, the UK is exiting to be a third country. So ratcheting up the rhetoric and propaganda aimed to divide for the next 3 months. Cos I'm worth it, problem is they ain't.

ambro25

reslfj wrote: »

"all these deals" = EU's planned unitaerally actions the help (only) EU citizens and companies.

Maybe we - in the EU27 - should not mitigate anything at all post Brexit date. If the UK refuses to understand, people in the UK better feel everything hard and full - from day 1.

I.E. No UK long haul lorries within the EU27, no flights to/from the EU27 , no EURATOM, no radioactive medicine, no..., no ...

From Brexit day 1

Lars

As Schadenfreundish as all that sounds, it's not in the EU's, nor in each of the EU27's, collective and individual best interests to be seen to throw an ex-member, even a foul-mouthed piece of aggravation like the current UK, under the geopolitical bus.

It would fuel up hard right Eurosceptics the length and breadth of the Continent for starters, besides PR-turning the UK into a martyr, rather than the sovereign country reaping the fruits of its self-decided course of action.

Far better for the EU27 to just continue free-wheeling as they have done since November 2018, impassive in the face of the UK political system tearing itself apart before the world, and fast-preparing (prep-finishing, even?) for no-deal to make that outcome ever-more manageable.

So Johnson doesn't want to meet unless we re-open the WA? Fine then, got better things to do with our time anyway, starting with a long holiday after the past roller-coasting year. Toodle-doo.

First Up

BluePlanet wrote:

Let me paint you a dark picture:

This picture was obvious to everyone in the Commission by about 8 am the morning after the Brexit vote. Believe me, nobody has doubted it would be part of the UK's strategy.

BluePlanet wrote:

They intentionally sabotage our "commitment" to the Customs Union and Single Market by smuggling prohibited food stuffs (bovine growth hormones or cholorinated chicken) into mainland Europe via the NI border.

The border issue is yet to be finalised but nothing will be allowed leave Ireland for mainland Europe until it has shown to be in full compliance with SM rules. The checks may not be at the border but they will be at Dublin, Rosslare and Ringaskiddy. The plans for this are are ready.

BluePlanet wrote:

France and Germany and others are appalled and are compelled to place checks on goods and produce from Ireland, or even bans, due to the mounting impracticability and political poison of policing the border here.

Not necessary as explained above and in numerous posts previously. This issue has been flagged for years. The EU's border administration (Frontex) is all over it.

VinLieger

Looks like the pound dipped below 1.09 overnight, gonna be a very interesting day, will we see a 5 year low?

KildareP

Mr. Sammy Wilson, Esq., M.P. on TalkRadio UK this morning with the usual Brexit bingo montage:
- Backstop is a trap (no mention of indications of support for it in NI)
- Boris approach is going to win through because its in the EU's interests to do a deal
- No Deal going to impact the EU just as dramatically as the UK (but no specifics on impact of UK, or specifically NI impact)
- Ireland will suffer from not having access to UK security intelligence
- Irish exports are in trouble because 60% beef goes to UK (and they're going to stop eating beef on Nov 1st?)
- We are just mostly Brit-Bashing because it's popular to do here
- Ireland overplayed our hand
- Germany and France will ultimately force our hand to do a deal
- We will be disposed of once our usefulness is done with by the EU
- We are now panicking as the realisation sinks in

When challenged about the possibility of break-up of the UK:
- United Ireland is not going to happen
- No election or opinion poll indications of a desire for a UI
- Scottish Independence is just the SNP being hellbent on having a re-run of the referendum and that it's up to the UK parliament whether a second referendum is allowed

brickster69

Sounds like everything has gone back to the start again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nT-Cq7zVdpY&feature=youtu.be

KildareP

And now the following studio panel discussion, including presenter, are talking about the French, the Germans, Varadkar's approval rating has plummeted, No Deal will decimate Ireland, the EU will cave, in the EU interests to have a deal so they will do one.

Jesus wept, "we are where we are", should instead be "we are where we were" three years ago!

MrMusician18

I think we need to rewind a bit. Somehow the discussion in the media and here seems to have changed into the strategy being a game of chicken. It not. Johnson's government doesn't expect the EU to change course.

This is all about putting the frighteners on parliament, to engineer a general election. Torpedoing the pound is part of that. Wait and watch the rhetoric ramp up to force the saner people into action.

Stop moaning ffs

Heard on the radio that any country working under WTO terms has to erect a border?

Anyone know if that’s true?

kuro68k

Boris is just building up to blame the EU for everything, that's apparently his plan. Crash out, try to blame someone else, bluster his way through it.

KildareP

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Heard on the radio that any country working under WTO terms has to erect a border?

Anyone know if that’s true?

Understanding is that is not strictly true:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/wto-says-its-rules-would-not-force-eu-or-uk-to-erect-hard-irish-border-1.3710136

“There is nothing in WTO rules that forces anyone to put up border posts,” said WTO spokesman Keith Rockwell on a visit to Dublin last week.
“Someone has to bring a complaint and say that their interests have been hurt.”

Essentially WTO won't on its own make you erect a border.
However a WTO member can bring a complaint against another member that their interests are being hurt due to the absence of said border.

I could see the EU invoking such a complaint on November 1st in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

Christy42

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Heard on the radio that any country working under WTO terms has to erect a border?

Anyone know if that’s true?

They have to offer the same rates to everyone they don't have a deal with. So no deal with the EU means they have to offer everyone whatever import tax they charge at the border.

Theoretically they could have no border and no taxes but that would kill them.

Stop moaning ffs

Cool thanks lads.

johnnyskeleton

J Mysterio wrote: »

I can't quite believe what I am reading here.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1155882827927425024

This is mad how we are casually being mentioned as a potential victim here.

There are lots of died in the wool leave voters who shout about how they dont care about the economy taking a dive so long as they leave. I suspect that they are lying/posturing.

By contrast, no one in Ireland makes much waves about how we would rather be poorer than risk the peace and cooperation with Northern Ireland, but I dont doubt for a second that its true.

So its amazing that the people who talk a hard line in the UK fail to even consider whether Ireland would take a hard line or not. We've consistently taken a firm stance all along, and if the overt strategy is to make Ireland break at the hands of the British, it will become even more a matter of pride.

I think we are possinly headed back to the 1930s trade war style politics, only now we have a much more diversified trading strategy and we are economic allies with a much more powerful force than the UK.

Even though I think there is merit in exploring all options and solutions, at this stage I think we should embrace the fact that no deal is happening and set national strategy to minimise the damage to us while maximising the damage to Britain. Its not going to be easy

ath262

Editorial in the Financial Times - Brexit has become the enemy of the UK union :

"Boris Johnson’s ‘do or die’ strategy is gambling with Britain’s future...The prime minister’s twin ambitions are on a dangerous collision course. Brexit in any shape promises to weaken the bonds between the nations of the British Isles. I......"

johnnyskeleton

KildareP wrote: »

And now the following studio panel discussion, including presenter, are talking about the French, the Germans, Varadkar's approval rating has plummeted, No Deal will decimate Ireland, the EU will cave, in the EU interests to have a deal so they will do one.

Jesus wept, "we are where we are", should instead be "we are where we were" three years ago!

Maybe Leo should call an election for 1st November and claim to be powerless to change policy until the new Dail is elected

Peregrinus

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Heard on the radio that any country working under WTO terms has to erect a border?

Anyone know if that’s true?

WTO rules don't explicitly require a border. They don't mention borders at all.

It's just that most countries use border controls as the mechanism by which they comply with WTO rules. It's hard, frankly, to see how any country can comply with WTO rule unless they operate border controls, absent an agreement providing for very deep trade and fiscal integration, like the Single Market/Customs Union.

UK may get away without operating border controls for some time, simply because in the chaos and confusion of a no-deal Brexit it may take some time for injured nations to lodge a complaint, plus it may take some time for that complaint to come to hearing and a ruling to be made. But this wouldn't mean that UK wouldn't be in breach of WTO rules; more that it could probably get away for quite a while with flouting WTO rules.