Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Spanish Eyes

FPTP has really led UK to this pass. I know there was a ref about it a few years ago which was rejected. I doubt anyone was clued in enough to realise the implications, apologies if that sounds condescending, but there we are.

No wonder UK folk have little interest in politics if a red, blue, or rarely a LD rosette can be elected with absolutely no work involved in a safe seat. That is the reality.

Why would anyone bother with political information if the outcome is a fait accompli?

And they talk about the democratic will of the people all the time, and now we have mutterings about an undemocratic backstop. It is subliminal marketing.

Corbyn might be ok, I don't think he is, but if he is, he needs to get off the hurler in the ditch mentality (which will mean nothing to UK) and decide on something that he is in favour of.

Anyway, I doubt UK will go for No Deal myself. Well I suppose I hope they don't. They all know it will be a disaster. Brinkmanship is the order of the day here now. EU will hold firm. So what is left?

Professor Moriarty

20silkcut wrote: »

The policy of putting pressure on Varadkar is totally futile when he has the full backing of the EU 27 behind him.
They should be putting the pressure on Brussels.
But they know they are at nothing there.
Therefore they are at nothing.

I think Johnson sees himself as the British lion stalking a herd of buffalo trying to pick off the smallest and stampeding the herd. In reality, he's a headless chicken.

abff

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Brinkmanship is the order of the day here now. EU will hold firm. So what is left?

So what it really boils down to is a game of 'who blinks first'? Great way to decide matters of great importance!

Joe_ Public

abff wrote: »

So what it really boils down to is a game of 'who blinks first'? Great way to decide matters of great importance!

Thats not how i'd see it. This isnt a game of chicken in high speed sportscars, the UK are not hurtling down the motorway with the EU coming at high speed straight at them, they're hurtling down the motorway straight to a cliff edge with nothing but a sharp drop ahead of them. EU is looking on, bemused like everybody else.

Capt'n Midnight

reslfj wrote: »

"all these deals" = EU's planned unitaerally actions the help (only) EU citizens and companies.

Maybe we - in the EU27 - should not mitigate anything at all post Brexit date. If the UK refuses to understand, people in the UK better feel everything hard and full - from day 1.

I.E. No UK long haul lorries within the EU27, no flights to/from the EU27 , no EURATOM, no radioactive medicine, no..., no ...

From Brexit day 1

Lars

Haven't you forgotten the reason the EU will allow those actions is to reduce the impact of Brexit on EU citizens.

The EU is cherry picking



For example the UK financial sector is relying on the EU recognising equivalence so they can keep access to EU markets. That just got blown out of the water.

EU has confirmed that equivalence doesn't guarantee access, and it can be withdrawn at any time. Like the above concessions.


EU signals tighter financial market access after Brexit

European Commission said countries outside the bloc would not necessarily have market access even if their rules were equivalent.
...
British regulators want new rules to make the system more transparent and predictable, given equivalence status can be withdrawn with 30 days notice.
...
Banks in the EU will no longer be able to use credit ratings from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada and Singapore because the five countries refused to match new EU rules in the sector.

Sam Russell

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

FPTP has really led UK to this pass. I know there was a ref about it a few years ago which was rejected. I doubt anyone was clued in enough to realise the implications, apologies if that sounds condescending, but there we are.

No wonder UK folk have little interest in politics if a red, blue, or rarely a LD rosette can be elected with absolutely no work involved in a safe seat. That is the reality.

Why would anyone bother with political information if the outcome is a fait accompli?

And they talk about the democratic will of the people all the time, and now we have mutterings about an undemocratic backstop. It is subliminal marketing.

Corbyn might be ok, I don't think he is, but if he is, he needs to get off the hurler in the ditch mentality (which will mean nothing to UK) and decide on something that he is in favour of.

Anyway, I doubt UK will go for No Deal myself. Well I suppose I hope they don't. They all know it will be a disaster. Brinkmanship is the order of the day here now. EU will hold firm. So what is left?

The referendum was a bit of a swizz in that the vote was not on the FPTP but on an 'alternative vote' scheme which was not much better. The idea (as far as I can make out) was a 1, 2 system of proportional voting. You got to vote for your preferred candidate, and then if that one did not succeed, then your second choice would be transferred. A bastardised system that just could not work and would be just as undemocratic, except in a three horse race.

The UK have exactly the same choice now as they had in March - WA, No Deal, or revoke. They chose to kick the can, but in October that may not be available.

The only undemocratic element in this sorry mess is the original referendum which was manipulated illegally by dark forces.

Spanish Eyes

abff wrote: »

So what it really boils down to is a game of 'who blinks first'? Great way to decide matters of great importance!

It is looking that way though.

lawred2

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's pretty clear that BoJo didn't even read the text of the last extension..
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-extension-text/text-eu-agreement-to-extend-brexit-idUSKCN1RN01E


4. The European Council reiterates that there can be no opening of the Withdrawal Agreement, and that any unilateral commitment, statement or other act should be compatible with the letter and the spirit of the Withdrawal Agreement and must not hamper its implementation.

5. The European Council stresses that such an extension cannot be used to start negotiations on the future relationship. However, if the position of the United Kingdom were to evolve, the European Council is prepared to reconsider the Political Declaration on the future relationship in accordance with the positions and principles stated in its guidelines and statements, including as regards the territorial scope of the future relationship.

The entire thrust of BoJo and the Tories is either admitting they aren't reading anything or that agreements they sign don't actually mean what they say.

Case of both I'd expect

Capt'n Midnight

ambro25 wrote: »

British Gammons may soften, after they realise that the world's entire supply of viagra is manufactured in Ireland

:pac:

Bet they won't look too surprised when they find out where the world's entire supply of Botox comes from

KildareP

abff wrote: »

So what it really boils down to is a game of 'who blinks first'? Great way to decide matters of great importance!

The EU have outlined what they are prepared to offer the UK in return for what the UK have said they are prepared to offer the EU upon exiting.

The UK does not like what the EU is prepared to offer.

The UK wants the EU to change what it is prepared to offer but the UK itself is not prepared to change anything it is willing to offer from its side.

There's no blinking game from the EU side - it's a take it or leave it approach, unless you're prepared to offer us something different then we'll reconsider. Or you can always just stay either.

Capt'n Midnight

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Meanwhile, Raab tweeted (and quickly deleted) that they would get a good deal for all regions of England, including Scotland.

This wasn't well received in Scotland.

It is like a parody sketch.

Fake.

But it says a lot that so many people readily believed it.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16380968.snps-ian-blackford-apologises-over-fake-scotland-is-a-region-of-england-tweet-from-brexit-secretary-dominic-raab/

Strazdas

abff wrote: »

So what it really boils down to is a game of 'who blinks first'? Great way to decide matters of great importance!

But it's not a stand off between two equals. You would think there can only be one winner here given the size and strength of the EU.

Infini

Strazdas wrote: »

But it's not a stand off between two equals. You would think there can only be one winner here given the size and strength of the EU.

The only winners out this would be the predatory parasites who engineeree this like Farage and co who pushed this to profit from the misery. The EU takes a hit but because of its size its able to absorb the shock. Ireland takes a hit but as were of the EU we can adapt on the medium to long term. The UK on the other hand may not likely survive the economic and political fallout from such a self inflicted disaster and no amount of rubbish from the daily mail and express and co will change the fact Brexit was the choice of the British goverment and noone else.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

The referendum was a bit of a swizz in that the vote was not on the FPTP but on an 'alternative vote' scheme which was not much better.

From here the view of the PR on it was about how it would change results.

Not much about how it could only change results in marginals.


Nothing remotely close to http://www.chickennation.com/voting/

Which matches our system ,
apart from here were you aren't forced to vote, and how we have multi seat constituencies so even die-hard party members can completely ignore parachute candidates.

Professor Moriarty

Infini wrote: »

The only winners out this would be the predatory parasites who engineeree this like Farage and co who pushed this to profit from the misery. The EU takes a hit but because of its size its able to absorb the shock. Ireland takes a hit but as were of the EU we can adapt on the medium to long term. The UK on the other hand may not likely survive the economic and political fallout from such a self inflicted disaster and no amount of rubbish from the daily mail and express and co will change the fact Brexit was the choice of the British goverment and noone else.

Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib has set aside £183 million to invest in properties that have and will have suffered because of Brexit. Here is a quote from Habib just before the referendum:

'If we get a vote for Brexit and the commentators are right, sterling will weaken and the markets will go into a degree of volatility, we'll be looking at that as a really great opportunity to buy assets in the UK. So, when things are going down, when sterling weakens, as that is going to happen in a no-deal, you profit."

The clowns who vote for vultures like this deserve everything they get.

briany

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib has set aside £183 million to invest in properties that have and will have suffered because of Brexit. Here is a quote from Habib just before the referendum:

'If we get a vote for Brexit and the commentators are right, sterling will weaken and the markets will go into a degree of volatility, we'll be looking at that as a really great opportunity to buy assets in the UK. So, when things are going down, when sterling weakens, as that is going to happen in a no-deal, you profit."

The clowns who vote for vultures like this deserve everything they get.

Make Britain great again by buying all of it.

ancapailldorcha

Below standard posts deleted.

Joe_ Public

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib has set aside £183 million to invest in properties that have and will have suffered because of Brexit. Here is a quote from Habib just before the referendum:

'If we get a vote for Brexit and the commentators are right, sterling will weaken and the markets will go into a degree of volatility, we'll be looking at that as a really great opportunity to buy assets in the UK. So, when things are going down, when sterling weakens, as that is going to happen in a no-deal, you profit."

The clowns who vote for vultures like this deserve everything they get.

“Another demonstration the rest of the world has huge confidence in Britain. As do I.”


The above is what Liz Truss, britains secretary of state for international trade no less, tweeted a few months ago in response to a report highlighting the UK as a hot tip for foreign companies on the hunt for deals. A welcome mat for vultures on the lookout for some easy asset stripping or just more compelling evidence of the ministers utter stupidity? Close call i would say.

Professor Moriarty

Joe_ Public wrote: »

“Another demonstration the rest of the world has huge confidence in Britain. As do I.”


The above is what Liz Truss, britains secretary of state for international trade no less, tweeted a few months ago in response to a report highlighting the UK as a hot tip for foreign companies on the hunt for deals. A welcome mat for vultures on the lookout for some easy asset stripping or just more compelling evidence of the ministers utter stupidity? Close call i would say.

These aren't stupid people. They are wild-eyed zealots.

Joe_ Public

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

These aren't stupid people. They are wild-eyed zealots.

Correct, very dangerous wild-eyed zealots who need to be stopped. I have to concede it surely takes a certain degree of intelligence to get, not just elected, but promoted to an office of state, but when it comes to Truss, i'm sorely tempted to make an exception. Whatever intelligence might lurk within, she does a first rate job in hiding it.

Thargor

After all the BS and all the waffle we're finally starting to get to the consequences part of their actions, and an absolut dream team of those responsible for it on the Tory front bench aswell, one more calm period to go over the recess and then the fireworks.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1156147984788283392

Spanish Eyes

Cummings is the real PM in all this, keep a weather eye on him.

reslfj

Robert McGrath wrote: »

J Mysterio wrote: »

Getting more expensive I would have thought

Only if the amount is fixed in € rather than GBP

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

There is no number agreed - just a method of calculation

The amount is not fixed at all. It is as Nate writes only the method of calculation that has been agreed.

Each the UK has to actually pay the amount in £ will be calculated. this will happen many times over the next 40+ years.

Lars

VinLieger

Thargor wrote: »

After all the BS and all the waffle we're finally starting to get to the consequences part of their actions, and an absolut dream team of those responsible for it on the Tory front bench aswell, one more calm period to go over the recess and then the fireworks.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1156147984788283392

The replies there are hilarious, the lack of comprehension that Britain has no raw materials so has to pretty much import everything to then export a finished product is lost on them

54and56

LordBasil wrote: »

It looks like Leo Varadkar is being lined up as the Brexit 'Bogeyman' by the Tories and Brexiteer UK Press because he's not backing down over the backstop. A handy fall guy to blame for No Deal....

From a hard Brexiteers perspective he's the perfect poster boy to blame as from their perspective he's:-

- Irish (obviously)
- An immigrant
- Gay
- A republican

He's the polar opposite of Little Englander's and those who support the DUP.

He's also calm and consistent, has a great team around him particularly Coveney, McEntee and Richmond and FF & Labour are (with the exception of Dooley) playing a strong supporting role which is to their credit.

All Varadkar has to do is remain calm, stick to the rhetoric that Brexit is a UK initiative, the backstop is essential given the red lines defined by the UK and it is entirely within the UK's own gift to avoid a No Deal Brexit if it wants to i.e. it can ratify the WA, withdraw A50, extend for a referendum or a GE.

Exiting on Oct 31st on a No Deal is entirely withing the UK's control and no-one else. If they choose to do so c'est la vie.

Kermit.de.frog

Well, 'Empire 2.0' is off to a pretty bad start if the British are relying on French/German assistance to defeat the Irish.

Capt'n Midnight

This doesn't bode well for the UK getting a good deal from the US

Trump on Tuesday warned China against waiting out his first term to finalize any trade deal, saying if he wins re-election in the November 2020 U.S. presidential contest, the outcome could be no agreement or a worse one.

FrancieBrady

Another strong, en pointe performance by an Irish diplomat, former ambassador Par McDonagh on Newsnight.
Spelling it out clearly and camly.

Enzokk

brickster69 wrote: »

You see, this is my point. It was dead 6 months ago and people still think it is alive. even the Eu won't accept it is dead.

It is Dead, finished, Kaput, Finito, Morte ! Accept it and move on.

No-deal is dead. It was dead 6 months ago when parliament rejected. It has been rejected multiple times. So what options are we left with? The deal on the table is dead, leaving without a deal is dead so revoke is the only viable option open to the UK right now.

I wonder what Brexiters will choose, revoke or the deal?

fash wrote: »

The reason the WA was rejected is because 35% is the parliament want to remain and another 35% want a labour brexit. When they realise neither of those is likely, they'll be happy with the WA.

The problem Labour has is they cannot allow a Tory Brexit to happen so while Corbyn may be looking for Brexit, a Tory Brexit will not be what he favours. So he has to stand against whatever deal they bring to the table or their voters, who is 65% remain in the referendum, will abandon him even more than they have.

So you have 35% remain and another 15% Lexiters who want to leave on Labour terms only. These numbers are plucked from nothing more than my own backside.

Just a couple of thoughts, I would love Johnson to be probed on the flexibility they as a government has shown that should show the EU there is a deal to be made. The only moves he has made is to draw his own red lines the same as May with leaving the customs union and single market but having no border. The only problem as most of us are aware is that this ground has been covered already and time is running out.

There were posts earlier in the thread today about what mandate the politicians have regarding the referendum. I don't know how you can argue for either a hard Brexit or soft based on the question asked, what I do know is that 54% of the vote in the 2017 General election went to parties that rules out no-deal. So what we do know there is most definitely not a mandate for no-deal, no matter how many times people try to say it.

It's worth re-stating every so often just what an excellent deal was offered to the UK. It would have minimised the effects of leaving the EU while giving some pretty big advantages to the UK over any other non-member. The backstop was proposed by the EU to give NI special status and the UK accepted. It could have been a boon to one of the least performing economies in western Europe. The British asked to extend the backstop and the EU acquiesced. I was annoyed at the time how much the EU gave away and any suggestion of a "better deal" for the UK side be dismissed out of hand.