Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

volchitsa

I was posting from (rather vague) memory. A quick check on Wiki tells me I was actually thinking of the suspension of the CTA during the war years which the Irish then unilaterally abandoned post-war, against British wishes.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area

This unilateral application of border controls continued until an agreement in 1952. So it can be done although not without problems as you say. I'm not sure what the conclusion wrt a no deal Brexit is, though.

(Just exploring the issues here, I genuine don't know.)

Shelga

Sure enough, British media (Today programme on Radio 4) already seizing upon Timmy Dooley’s tweet from yesterday as a sign that Irish unity is disintegrating.

I hope he was severely chastised by Micheal Martin in private, and we don’t see that kind of nonsense again.

Peregrinus

Shelga wrote: »

Sure enough, British media (Today programme on Radio 4) already seizing upon Timmy Dooley’s tweet from yesterday as a sign that Irish unity is disintegrating.

I hope he was severely chastised by Micheal Martin in private, and we don’t see that kind of nonsense again.

Dooley's tweet has been deleted, and Martin has put up his own tweet saying the exact opposite of what Dooley said. I'd say there's an office somewhere in Leinster House with Dooley's blood, hair and guts all over the walls and ceiling.

Peregrinus

volchitsa wrote: »

I was posting from (rather vague) memory. A quick check on Wiki tells me I was actually thinking of the suspension of the CTA during the war years which the Irish then unilaterally abandoned post-war, against British wishes.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area

This unilateral application of border controls continued until an agreement in 1952. So it can be done although not without problems as you say. I'm not sure what the conclusion wrt a no deal Brexit is, though.

(Just exploring the issues here, I genuine don't know.)

Bewteen '45 and '52 there were movement controls on people coming from Ireland to Britain, but not the other way around. I wouldn't say that, during that period, there was a "Common Travel Area" in operation, if only because there was nothing "common" about the Irish decision not to apply movement controls; it was a unilateral decision.

In the Brexit context, of course, neither side intends to operate movement controls on people crossing the RoI/NI border, in either direction. We are talking about collecting taxes and tariffs on goods crossing the border, and inspecting goods crossing the border for compliance with local regulatory requirements.

UK could,hypothetically, unilaterally decide to collect no taxes and tariffs, and operate no regulatory controls, on goods entering the UK from RoI. But, even if they did, that would not honour the no-hard-border guarantee, since goods crossing the other way would be taxed and controlled, because of the UK's unilateral decision to end the mutual arrangements which currently make that unnecessary.

trashcan

careless sherpa wrote: »

Is like the scene in blazing saddles where the sheriff puts a gun to his own head in order to prevent being lynched

Ha. “He’s just crazy enough to do it !”

Was just watching an interview there with Arlene Foster on BBC (terrible effort by the interviewer btw) Can someone explain this to me - DUP are against the backstop because it treats NI differently to Britain and therefore breaks up the UK - isn’t the whole point of the change Teresa May negotiated that it keeps the whole of the UK under EU customs arrangements, for the sole purpose of not treating NI differently ? What am I missing here ?

Peregrinus

trashcan wrote: »

. . . Was just watching an interview there with Arlene Foster on BBC (terrible effort by the interviewer btw) Can someone explain this to me - DUP are against the backstop because it treats NI differently to Britain and therefore breaks up the UK - isn’t the whole point of the change Teresa May negotiated that it keeps the whole of the UK under EU customs arrangements, for the sole purpose of not treating NI differently ? What am I missing here ?

It keeps the whole UK in the customs union, which means no difference in treatment between NI and GB as regards tariffs and customs regulations. However it still leave NI co-ordinated with EU as regards single market regulations, but not GB, which means goods coming from GB to NI would have to be subject to checks and controls to ensure compliance with EU regulations. DUP's position is that there should be no difference at all between the treatment of NI and GB.

VinLieger

Great piece in Sky Views about the push towards comparing Brexit with WWII


https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-boris-johnson-is-not-churchill-and-brexit-is-not-the-second-world-war-11773843


Boris is absolutely loving being compared with his idol

Peregrinus

VinLieger wrote: »

Boris is absolutely loving being compared with his idol

He shouldn't be. The comparison is hardly likely to be favourable to Boris.

VinLieger

Peregrinus wrote: »

He shouldn't be. The comparison is hardly likely to be favourable to Boris.

He adores Churchill, his childlike wish is to be seen as the second coming of the man

Peregrinus

VinLieger wrote: »

He adores Churchill, his childlike wish is to be seen as the second coming of the man

He should be able to see that his childlike wish is very, very unlikely to be granted.

KildareP

Even the US must be getting sick of repeating themselves at this stage - some strong (repeated) words from Richard Neal on a UK-US trade deal:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/this-is-not-about-a-return-to-empire-us-congressman-warns-johnson-on-belfast-agreement-1.3972382

Meanwhile there could be a few uncomfortable chats happening around No 10 this morning:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/dominic-cummings-tories-do-not-care-about-poor-people-or-the-nhs

briany

KildareP wrote: »

Even the US must be getting sick of repeating themselves at this stage - some strong (repeated) words from Richard Neal on a UK-US trade deal:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/this-is-not-about-a-return-to-empire-us-congressman-warns-johnson-on-belfast-agreement-1.3972382

Meanwhile there could be a few uncomfortable chats happening around No 10 this morning:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/dominic-cummings-tories-do-not-care-about-poor-people-or-the-nhs

If the UK offers the US a trade deal in which it effectively prostrates itself, I expect U.S. Congress to pretty much say, "Ah, but let us define jeopardise...". Money talks.

And I'm wondering if these Democratic politicians are opposing a no-backstop trade deal because they care so very much about the N.I. Peace Process, or if
they're using that as a banner to oppose Trump under. The key question is whether the Democrats would refuse to do a trade deal with the UK if it were the Democrats in government. I think their game is to oppose it now, and oppose Trump in the process, and by the time the Dems get back into the President's office, the UK-EU and backstop issues will have resolved themselves, and they won't look like hypocrites if they then pivot to a deal.

Seth Brundle

trashcan wrote: »

Was just watching an interview there with Arlene Foster on BBC (terrible effort by the interviewer btw) Can someone explain this to me - DUP are against the backstop because it treats NI differently to Britain and therefore breaks up the UK - isn’t the whole point of the change Teresa May negotiated that it keeps the whole of the UK under EU customs arrangements, for the sole purpose of not treating NI differently ? What am I missing here ?

It keeps Ni closer to the EU than "mainland" Britain which the DUP don't want. They want to be as far away from the ROI as possible.
They also want the unionist people of NI to be treated the same as all other Brits. Except obviously when they don't want it e.g. abortion, gay marriage etc.
They also know that a crash out risks the GFA, which they were never in faviour of because they have a problem with nationalists being treated equally.
So in a nutshell: they want to be British, definitley not Irish and they want equality for the people of NI (except for the gays, the pregnant women, the Catholics, the Irish and so on).

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

So, if the UK's no-hard-border guarantee means anything at all, it means a commitment to enter into the agreed arrangements that are needed if a hard border is to be avoided. If, by the time Brexit happens, the UK hasn't reached agreement with the EU on these arrangements then there will be a hard border. We can't pretend, at that point, that a hard border is something that might or might not happen in the future depending on how the UK decides to behave; it is something that will happen, and soon, unless the UK makes an agreement with the EU as to how it is to be avoided.

Correct. Those demanding the backstop be dropped are conveniently forgetting how it arose.

The agenda for the withdrawal talks (agreed between the UK and EU) required the UK to say how arrangements in Ireland would be maintained post Brexit before the talks could move on to other topics.

As they were unable to answer this, the UK offered the backstop as a way to park the issue while other matters were dealt with. They undertook that nothing would be done that changed the Irish situation unless and until new terms were agreed between the parties. The EU accepted this promise in good faith and allowed the rest of the WA to progress.

The UK has now gone back on its promise. The logical and legal response from the EU is that in that case, we move back to where we were before the backstop was offered.

The UK has until October 31st to make up the lost time on Ireland and everything else. They better hurry.

briany

Seth Brundle wrote: »

It keeps Ni closer to the EU than "mainland" Britain which the DUP don't want. They want to be as far away from the ROI as possible.
They also want the unionist people of NI to be treated the same as all other Brits. Except obviously when they don't want it e.g. abortion, gay marriage etc.
They also know that a crash out risks the GFA, which they were never in faviour of because they have a problem with nationalists being treated equally.
So in a nutshell: they want to be British, definitley not Irish and they want equality for the people of NI (except for the gays, the pregnant women, the Catholics, the Irish and so on).

Do the DUP have a long game on this? If they're opposed to the backstop, and they're opposed to the Good Friday Agreement, where do they see NI society going if the GFA is lost?

If you think that they want to bring back 'the good old days', they themselves must know deep down that this is not a plan. It couldn't be enacted as the region would now be under a gimlet eye from the rest of the world.

FrancieBrady

Arlene Foster still blaming everybody else for the predicament the DUP find themselves in as regards Brexit and powersharing.
No change there then.

Seth Brundle

briany wrote: »

Do the DUP have a long game on this? If they're opposed to the backstop, and they're opposed to the Good Friday Agreement, where do they see NI society going if the GFA is lost?

If you think that they want to bring back 'the good old days', they themselves must know deep down that this is not a plan. It couldn't be enacted as the region would now be under a gimlet eye from the rest of the world.

From memory, the DUP spent less than 30 minutes choosing a policy stance on Brexit prior to the referendum.
Based on this, they don't do long games!

As for their "plans", they are succeeding I guess. It looks like they are going to get Home Rule which suits them fine.

BonnieSituation

Seth Brundle wrote: »

From memory, the DUP spent less than 30 minutes choosing a policy stance on Brexit prior to the referendum.
Based on this, they don't do long games!

As for their "plans", they are succeeding I guess. It looks like they are going to get Home Rule which suits them fine.

Direct* Rule.

They're giving up Home Rule given their unwillingness to go back to Stormont.

Stop moaning ffs

Does she think we’re all stupid?

Arlene who resigned from the Ulster unionists in protest of the GFA, now trying to make out she’s defending it and it’s Dublin tearing up the GFA.

It would be Orwellian if it weren’t so obvious and hypocritical

Dytalus

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Does she think we’re all stupid?

Arlene who resigned from the Ulster unionists in protest of the GFA, now trying to make out she’s defending it and it’s Dublin tearing up the GFA.

It would be Orwellian if it weren’t so obvious and hypocritical

She's not talking to us. She's telling her supporters what they want to hear to keep them on side. We're not her target audience.

Stop moaning ffs

Dytalus wrote: »

She's not talking to us. She's telling her supporters what they want to hear to keep them on side. We're not her target audience.

But she’s all over bbc and sky selling this lie.

And going unchallenged on it which is the galling part.

Enzokk

I am sure this has been reported already but investment in the car industry in the UK was only £90m for the first six months this year. Before Brexit this was £2.5bn to £2.7bn per year. That is some fall.

Brexit causes UK car industry investment to crash to 'pitiful' £90m

Investment in Britain’s car industry has effectively stopped amid fears over Brexit, with a “pitiful” £90m pledged for new developments in the first six months of this year, according to the industry body.

Before Brexit clouded the horizon, the automotive industry was investing between £2.5bn and £2.7bn a year in research and development.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT) said a Brexit deal was imperative to help the embattled industry to bounce back, otherwise the government will face demands for the same type of tax breaks farmers need to stay afloat.

The irony that the pressure is coming from the UK car manufacturers to get a deal done and not the German car makers.

Peregrinus wrote: »

It keeps the whole UK in the customs union, which means no difference in treatment between NI and GB as regards tariffs and customs regulations. However it still leave NI co-ordinated with EU as regards single market regulations, but not GB, which means goods coming from GB to NI would have to be subject to checks and controls to ensure compliance with EU regulations. DUP's position is that there should be no difference at all between the treatment of NI and GB.

The irony of there being a difference in standards already between NI and the rest of the UK in some areas is obviously lost on the DUP.

trashcan

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

But she’s all over bbc and sky selling this lie.

And going unchallenged on it which is the galling part.

What’s clear from the BBC interview this morning is that the journalists simply don’t seem well enough informed to call them on it. All the interviewer this morning was really interested in was whether they were going to ask Boris for more money.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

The irony that the pressure is coming from the UK car manufacturers to get a deal done and not the German car makers.

That was always going to be the case. Brexit posed a much bigger threat to the UK car industry than it did to the German car industry. I'm genuinely mystified as to how anyone could have failed to spot this right off.

The only way the Brexiter "German car industry will ensure we get a good deal" trope made any sense at all was if you assume that the EU authorities are sensitive to the concerns of the German car industry, but HMG is indifferent to the much more acute concerns of the UK car industry.

Enzokk

James O'Brien is talking about the Irish border right now, link here to their player, not much of interest at the moment as yet. But he has shared this tweet about the Irish border with NI. I am not sure if this has been shared already.

https://twitter.com/marksugruek/status/1155957402312663041?s=20

There is a few tweets in that thread with pictures of the border, some very interesting areas where cows will be moving between the EU and outside of the EU within a barn.

And Johnson promised there would not be a border but they will leave the single market and customs union. As others have pointed out, we are back to the beginning where the UK wants to square that circle without any detail.

Enzokk

Another interesting link from an earlier piece (4 July) in the FT about why an FTA with no border will have complications on tax revenues for both countries.

What an Ikea bed tells us about Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan

To understand whether Boris Johnson’s plans for Brexit will work, consider the humble Malm bed from Ikea. The frontrunner to become UK prime minister denies he is already measuring the curtains for Number 10, but if he was checking out bedroom furniture on this week’s visit to Belfast, the bed would set him back £315. Alternatively he could drive to Dublin Ikea and buy the bed for €350. The prices match at Wednesday’s euro exchange rate of €1.114 against sterling.

In Belfast, having charged 20 per cent value added tax, HM Revenue & Customs would receive £52.50, while in one of the two Ikea stores near the Irish capital, Irish Tax and Customs would collect €65.45 from its 23 per cent VAT rate.

Let’s wind the clock forward four months to Mr Johnson’s dream Brexit, in which the EU signs a basic free trade agreement with the UK and keeps the Irish border open with no tariffs, no checks and no border infrastructure.

Under EU rules, British people would become eligible for an Irish VAT refund on their purchase of the Malm bed in Dublin. So long as they showed proof of residence in Northern Ireland and declared the goods would leave the EU, they would get a refund. The trip to Dublin would save Belfast consumers almost 20 per cent, not bad for a 100-mile drive and a bit of bureaucracy.

Hint to read the article, google the title and you should be able to read it when the search result is returned.

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

Another interesting link from an earlier piece (4 July) in the FT about why an FTA with no border will have complications on tax revenues for both countries.

What an Ikea bed tells us about Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan



Hint to read the article, google the title and you should be able to read it when the search result is returned.

It is VAT that will prove to be the biggest problem with a No Deal Brexit. Tariffs are small compared to VAT and unless current rules are maintained (which is unlikely), the 'frictionless' border will be the centre pole of a fraud merry go round that exports and re-imports goods where vat is not paid and reclaimed many time as the pass and re-pass the border.

Currently, if a purchase is made from Ireland on Amazon, the price is hiked by the extra 3% on the VAT charged here compared with the UK. That will not happen after Brexit, but VAT will be charged by the the shipper, plus admin charges. So expect an Amazon.ie to begin shipping from European fulfillment centres.

FrancieBrady

Enzokk wrote: »

James O'Brien is talking about the Irish border right now, link here to their player, not much of interest at the moment as yet. But he has shared this tweet about the Irish border with NI. I am not sure if this has been shared already.

https://twitter.com/marksugruek/status/1155957402312663041?s=20

There is a few tweets in that thread with pictures of the border, some very interesting areas where cows will be moving between the EU and outside of the EU within a barn.

And Johnson promised there would not be a border but they will leave the single market and customs union. As others have pointed out, we are back to the beginning where the UK wants to square that circle without any detail.

My local hardware store in in there. The border runs across the middle of the yard. Timber and supplies are in the south the shop bit is in the north.

Enzokk

Some good links appearing on my (I am aware echo chamber) timeline. This is a thread again that explains the problem with Brexit and the Irish border. It seems to cover the bases very well.

Right, the Ireland and Brexit thread. - David Henig

I assume the glut of coverage on NI is Johnson visiting Foster last night.

First Up

FrancieBrady wrote: »

My local hardware store in in there. The border runs across the middle of the yard. Timber and supplies are in the south the shop bit is in the north.

Interesting pictures but the thought occurs; many of these structures, roads etc. pre-date the GFA and EU membership so how was the border administered in previous times?