Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

kub

If anyone has a radio at hand tune into Rte Radio 1 now, there is a debate about the UK media bullying Ireland regarding Brexit

Peregrinus

murphaph wrote: »

I'm not so sure.

The UK Border Force will make a note of when Pawel arrived from Warsaw and they will start checking departing passengers' passports (if they don't already) to ensure that they didn't overstay the 90 days or whatever.

It will be reasonably easy for the Home Office to discover strange travel patterns, that might indicate an individual is actually resident in the UK rather than say Poland.

That surveillance can be completely bypassed by flying into DUB first and then taking either a direct flight to a GB airport (assuming CTA remains as is with UK airports handling Irish arrivals as domestic) or in the event the CTA is "somewhat restricted" and identity checks are instigated on ex RoI flights, then they will take a private car (there will be a bustling black market "taxi" trade ferrying Eastern Europeans to/from Dublin-Belfast as coaches are likely to be checked on arrival at Belfast) to Belfast and travel onwards from there.

No, really.

While it's true that the UK could check passports of departing passengers to see if they have overstayed their visas, they don't do so systematically at present, and they don't intend to in the future. Their policy will be to admit EU citizens quite freely, and to prevent them from settling through the use of in-country controls - you'll need to demonstrate your migration status to take a job, rent accommodation, enroll your kids in school, register with a GP practice, that kind of thing.

This isn't a new thing. There are about 50 (non-EU) countries whose citizens already have visa-free access to the UK, and in-country controls are in use right now to prevent them from settling.

Entering the UK across the RoI/NI border will (as now) be perfectly legitimate, and won't be an effective way of circumventing those in-country controls.

10000maniacs

declanflynn wrote: »

A hard Brexit will solve the uk immigration problem from November they will have almost no trade deals with anyone will be swamped will cheap **** food and goods from all over the world go into a deep recession, my only worry about a hard Brexit is how do stop British economic immigrants coming over here and into the eu

If they have an Irish passport they would be entitled to live here. If they don't have a passport and have UK citizenship they would have to make their move pretty soon before the UK leaves the EU. If they don't have UK citizenship they could attempt to come into the Republic via Northern Ireland, but if caught, they would be immediately deported back to the UK as they wouldn't be classed as refugees. Is that how it works?

Peregrinus

10000maniacs wrote: »

If they have an Irish passport they would be entitled to live here. If they don't have a passport and have UK citizenship they would have to make their move pretty soon before the UK leaves the EU. If they don't have UK citizenship they could attempt to come into the Republic via Northern Ireland, but if caught, they would be immediately deported back to the UK as they wouldn't be classed as refugees. Is that how it works?

Nope. UK citizens have always had a right to enter and settle in Ireland (and vice versa). This predates the EU membership of both countries and will survive Brexit. Irish passport or no, any UK citizen who finds post-Brexit UK uncongenial will be able to come to and settle in Ireland freely and legitimately.

Stop moaning ffs

Peregrinus wrote: »

UK citizens don't need Irish passports to move to Ireland.

I’m aware. Based on seeing a lot of British saying they are going to move it it all goes south with a no deal.

Stop moaning ffs

I know the CTA has been cemented by us and the British recently no matter what happens, could this change under Boris if it gets really messy down the line?

Valhallapt

My personal preference is Ireland leaves the CTA and joins Schengen. Up until now this would have been impossible because of NI, but if we’re heading toward a hard Brexit / harder border and the polls are moving toward a UI maybe having to show passports at the border will encourage those on the fence about a UI to come to the warm embrace of Schengen...

Peregrinus

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I know the CTA has been cemented by us and the British recently no matter what happens, could this change under Boris if it gets really messy down the line?

Well, it could change under anybody. The CTA continues only for so long as both governments want it to; either of them can terminate it unilaterally.

Peregrinus

Valhallapt wrote: »

My personal preference is Ireland leaves the CTA and joins Schengen. Up until now this would have been impossible because of NI, but if we’re heading toward a hard Brexit / harder border and the polls are moving toward a UI maybe having to show passports at the border will encourage those on the fence about a UI to come to the warm embrace of Schengen...

Nope. The hard border that will result from a no-deal Brexit will affect the mvoement of goods, not people. It will not be a migration border and nobody will have to show passports going in either direction. However if Ireland joins Schengen, then it will become a migration border with passport controls. And, since we don't want to be responsible for that, we will never join Schengen (unless the UK does, which at the present moment seems a fairly remote possiblity).

lawred2

Peregrinus wrote: »

UK citizens don't need Irish passports to move to Ireland.

Clearly it is for EU citizenship entitlements

lawred2

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Not to mention the (what is it - nearly 1 million?) Irish born people living in the UK, we many have a problem trying to prevent the return of many of these.

And they are welcome to come home... for too long Ireland has been held back by population bleed

ilovesmybrick

The Atlantic has an interesting article today on why Brexit could lead Scotland to leave the UK.

Why Leaving the EU Could Mean Britain Loses Scotland

Pretty much outlines the broad strokes of Scotlands attitudes towards the EU, and how a combination of Thatchers deindustrialisation in the eighties and EU structural funds really boosted both EU support and support for Scottish independence.

Valhallapt

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nope. The hard border that will result from a no-deal Brexit will affect the mvoement of goods, not people. It will not be a migration border and nobody will have to show passports going in either direction. However if Ireland joins Schengen, then it will become a migration border with passport controls. And, since we don't want to be responsible for that, we will never join Schengen (unless the UK does, which at the present moment seems a fairly remote possiblity).

I’m playing devils advocate here, but why don’t we want to be responsible for that??

If we forgot completely about NI then ROI would be much better server by being in Schengen.

So if we said we were leaving the CTA what effect would that have on the NI population, would it make them more or less inclined to join a UI?

To answer my own question I would imaging the unionists would want to strengthen the CTA if a UI was on the table. It would also dislocate many nationalists. But after a UI were to come about we should have a serious think about Schengen vs CTA

declanflynn

Peregrinus wrote: »

10000maniacs wrote: »

If they have an Irish passport they would be entitled to live here. If they don't have a passport and have UK citizenship they would have to make their move pretty soon before the UK leaves the EU. If they don't have UK citizenship they could attempt to come into the Republic via Northern Ireland, but if caught, they would be immediately deported back to the UK as they wouldn't be classed as refugees. Is that how it works?

Nope. UK citizens have always had a right to enter and settle in Ireland (and vice versa). This predates the EU membership of both countries and will survive Brexit. Irish passport or no, any UK citizen who finds post-Brexit UK uncongenial will be able to come to and settle in Ireland freely and legitimately.

So the vote leave brigade are correct Ireland is doomed in the event of a no deal brexit = we will be flooded with refugees from Britain we could make the wear some sort of mark or badge to deferenciate them from us I wonder would they be able to pick fruit or foot turf or would we have to let them do simpler jobs

Imreoir2

Valhallapt wrote: »

I’m playing devils advocate here, but why don’t we want to be responsible for that??

If we forgot completely about NI then ROI would be much better server by being in Schengen.

So if we said we were leaving the CTA what effect would that have on the NI population, would it make them more or less inclined to join a UI?

To answer my own question I would imaging the unionists would want to strengthen the CTA if a UI was on the table. It would also dislocate many nationalists. But after a UI were to come about we should have a serious think about Schengen vs CTA

It would be a clear-cut breach of our obligations under the GFA. We can hardily insist that the UK adopt the necessary measures to keep the border open and then turn around and adopt a policy ourselves which makes the border much harder than needs be.

Bit cynical

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I know the CTA has been cemented by us and the British recently no matter what happens, could this change under Boris if it gets really messy down the line?

It could always change as it is not a formal agreement between the two countries. However it is not really in the interest of either country, particularly in the light of Brexit, to drop the CTA.

Valhallapt

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It would be a clear-cut breach of our obligations under the GFA. We can hardily insist that the UK adopt the necessary measures to keep the border open and then turn around and adopt a policy ourselves which makes the border much harder than needs be.

In the event of a border poll and a UI does the GFA continue to exist?

Bit cynical

Valhallapt wrote: »

In the event of a border poll and a UI does the GFA continue to exist?

It covers the whole of Ireland and the UK so by default it continues to exist in the event of a border poll.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1156874248851460096

It's never been about the backstop for these people . That is just a handy hook to hang their hats on. They want no deal

Imreoir2

Valhallapt wrote: »

In the event of a border poll and a UI does the GFA continue to exist?

In the event of a UI, there is no land border to harden. Joining Schengen before a UI happens would be a breach of the GFA.

After a UI the GFA would most likely have to be replaced by a successor agreement, though this is not spelled out in the GFA itself. It is likely that there would be a new agreement between Ireland and Britain setting out the new relationship and allowing for the contiuation of some of the provissions of the GFA like continued access to dual citizenship in NI and the continuation of the GFA institutions like the British/Irish Council and possibly a devolution settlement for NI within the Irish state.

Stop moaning ffs

I only found out today that if we have a UI ref, we have to have one every seven years?
Is that if it doesn’t pass we try again in 7 years? Or if it does pass we have one every 7 years?
Or both? Really confused on this anyone know for sure?

Tell me how

Simon Coveney once again showing his diplomacy. Would have been easy to add a cutting remark but he's 'best ignored' line is well chosen.
Also reinforces consistency position from Ireland.

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1156862782383542272?s=19

A Dub in Glasgo

LeinsterDub wrote: »

It's never been about the backstop for these people . That is just a handy hook to hang their hats on. They want no deal

Absolutely correct - remember this from January? 600 to 24 defeat, the next Brexiter who comes on the TV and spouts about the backstop should be asked about this

FrancieBrady

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I only found out today that if we have a UI ref, we have to have one every seven years?
Is that if it doesn’t pass we try again in 7 years? Or if it does pass we have one every 7 years?
Or both? Really confused on this anyone know for sure?

No.

One cannot be held within 7 years. There is no stipulation that one HAS to be held.

10000maniacs

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

We’ll that’s one way of spinning it. Of course the money is just resting in their accounts for now

https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1156681386872303616?s=21

Even the DUP's spin is starting to sound non-confident these days. There are worried people in that party.
They have boxed themselves into supporting no deal against the will of their own constituents.

Stop moaning ffs

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No.

One cannot be held within 7 years. There is no stipulation that one HAS to be held.

That makes more sense thanks francie

Stop moaning ffs

10000maniacs wrote: »

Even the DUP's spin is starting to sound non-confident these days. There are worried people in that party.
They have boxed themselves into supporting no deal against the will of their own constituents.

This is all only headed one way. They know it.

Laois_Man

Tell me how wrote: »

Simon Coveney once again showing his diplomacy. Would have been easy to add a cutting remark but he's 'best ignored' line is well chosen.
Also reinforces consistency position from Ireland.

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1156862782383542272?s=19

Unlike from the UK. Rishi Sunak, who, as opposed to Johnson's line of "I'm not meeting 'til the backstop is gone", is saying the UK government would like to have a conversation with EU about removing the backstop, and that they need to stay in the customs union and the single market for a transition period!

In fact, Johnson himself has been contradictory in recent days! Surprise Surprise!

Laois_Man

10000maniacs wrote: »

Even the DUP's spin is starting to sound non-confident these days. There are worried people in that party.
They have boxed themselves into supporting no deal against the will of their own constituents.

But not against the will of their own voters!

Igotadose

Tell me how wrote: »

Simon Coveney once again showing his diplomacy. Would have been easy to add a cutting remark but he's 'best ignored' line is well chosen.
Also reinforces consistency position from Ireland.

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1156862782383542272?s=19

Too bad the eejits on Newstalk this morning hadn't read this. They were blathering Bruce Arnold's sh1te and 'asking for texts.' Also mentioned that the Johnson government has 1 billion pounds budgeted for 'no deal Brexit.' Have heard about 100 million pounds for the advertising campaign, the 1 billion's news to me.

CNN has a piece on the UK car industry basically going away if there's a no-deal Brexit. Well, as Johnson(?) said, "F**k business."

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/31/business/uk-car-industry-brexit/index.html