Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Walter Bishop wrote: »

They're getting overtime they wouldn't be getting otherwise (mostly), 8500 dinners have to be provided, 40,000 bottles of water etc. etc. according to the Times.

That's not theoretical at all.

Indeed but the alternative is for Leo to ignore POTUS and for Ireland to ignore the fact that POTUS is visiting Ireland. Trump is a dysfunctional and dangerous person but we couldn't possibly ignore his visit whatever his behaviour around Brexit, especially having been feted in Britain.

Quin_Dub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed but the alternative is for Leo to ignore POTUS and for Ireland to ignore the fact that POTUS is visiting Ireland. Trump is a dysfunctional and dangerous person but we couldn't possibly ignore his visit whatever his behaviour around Brexit, especially having been feted in Britain.

Not talking about totally ignoring him , but is the level of security and hyper-preparation truly necessary?

Professor Moriarty

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Not talking about totally ignoring him , but is the level of security and hyper-preparation truly necessary?

It's probably dictated by US security services. Got to dance to the tune.

Leroy42

I have still to see any plan of how any of these potential Tory leaders plan to actually leave on 31 October. They keep saying they will, but on what basis? How are they going to plan for it, how much will it cost, wil the IT systems be in place.

I find it amazing that they can each , or nearly all of them, come out with the statement that 31 October Deal or No Deal when they have already ruled the WA deal out and thus only have No Deal, yet nobody is asking them to detail their plans of how to achieve it.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

I have still to see any plan of how any of these potential Tory leaders plan to actually leave on 31 October. They keep saying they will, but on what basis? How are they going to plan for it, how much will it cost, wil the IT systems be in place.

I find it amazing that they can each , or nearly all of them, come out with the statement that 31 October Deal or No Deal when they have already ruled the WA deal out and thus only have No Deal, yet nobody is asking them to detail their plans of how to achieve it.

How does Andrea Leadsom get away with this managed no deal nonsense? The terms are totally at odds with each other...

Quin_Dub

Leadsom was talking on TV the other day about wanting a "Managed Brexit" , of course the interviewer didn't challenge that to ask how that was different to the WA.

That they are still getting away with this kind of tripe is appalling

54and56

Leroy42 wrote: »

I have still to see any plan of how any of these potential Tory leaders plan to actually leave on 31 October. They keep saying they will, but on what basis? How are they going to plan for it, how much will it cost, wil the IT systems be in place.

I find it amazing that they can each , or nearly all of them, come out with the statement that 31 October Deal or No Deal when they have already ruled the WA deal out and thus only have No Deal, yet nobody is asking them to detail their plans of how to achieve it.

It's pure and utter deal fatigue on a national scale.

"Deal fatigue is a real issue — and something you will immediately understand if your job includes negotiations on a single contract that last months or even years. When I say deal fatigue, I mean the situation where people get so tired of a project that they start compromising on issues just to reach the conclusion or to sign an agreement."

Deal fatigue is often used to manipulate your opposition into accepting the worst available option just so the negotiation can be over.

In this case it is the Brits who are walking themselves into a deal fatigue outcome.

Professor Moriarty

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Leadsom was talking on TV the other day about wanting a "Managed Brexit" , of course the interviewer didn't challenge that to ask how that was different to the WA.

That they are still getting away with this kind of tripe is appalling

Andrew Marr, on BBC last Sunday, ripped her apart on her 'managed deal'. She looked very uncomfortable and easily shaken. That interview probably dashed any faint hope she had. I'd say she used the word 'sensible' about 72 times. Which was ironic considering she was spouting nonsense.

Leroy42

54&56 wrote: »

It's pure and utter deal fatigue on a national scale.

"Deal fatigue is a real issue — and something you will immediately understand if your job includes negotiations on a single contract that last months or even years. When I say deal fatigue, I mean the situation where people get so tired of a project that they start compromising on issues just to reach the conclusion or to sign an agreement."

Deal fatigue is often used to manipulate your opposition into accepting the worst available option just so the negotiation can be over.

In this case it is the Brits who are walking themselves into a deal fatigue outcome.

OT, but is that what is at play when we see the long and protracted public pay deals that go on until 4am (this is not a question about public pay BTW).

54and56

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Leadsom was talking on TV the other day about wanting a "Managed Brexit" , of course the interviewer didn't challenge that to ask how that was different to the WA.

That they are still getting away with this kind of tripe is appalling

It must have been a different interview to the Andrew Marr interview as he challenged her assumption that in a no deal scenario the EU would agree to implement the elements of the WA which were not in dispute by either party thus resulting in a managed no deal. She said she had spent a considerable amount of time thinking about it (sounded like a Junior Cert student when she said that) and was convinced the EU would go for it. When challenged by Marr to produce a single supporting comment from any senior EU politician or negotiator she couldn't and when he produced quotes from (I think) Junker and Barnier just a day or so earlier both saying the WA would not be re-negotiated and there wouldn't be any side or mini deals she reverted to the standard "well they would say that wouldn't they" answer quickly followed by the old mantra that at the end of the day the EU want a good trading relationship with the EU and will come to their senses once it's clear the UK will leave on Oct 31st deal or no deal.

A managed no deal is nothing more than V2 of the hope that the EU will buckle and do a deal at the last minute "as they always do".........except on March 29th or April 12th.

Maybe she thinks it'll 3rd time lucky.

Some strategy for running a country

joe40

Leroy42 wrote: »

I have still to see any plan of how any of these potential Tory leaders plan to actually leave on 31 October. They keep saying they will, but on what basis? How are they going to plan for it, how much will it cost, wil the IT systems be in place.

I find it amazing that they can each , or nearly all of them, come out with the statement that 31 October Deal or No Deal when they have already ruled the WA deal out and thus only have No Deal, yet nobody is asking them to detail their plans of how to achieve it.

Even if they were to leave on "No deal" on the 31st oct. On the 1st Nov they then start negotiating trade deal with the EU and the NI border becomes an issue again.

54and56

Leroy42 wrote: »

OT, but is that what is at play when we see the long and protracted public pay deals that go on until 4am (this is not a question about public pay BTW).

It's a little bit about that. In most serious negotiations (in my experience) you cannot be satisfied you've extracted absolutely everything the other side is prepared to give until you have reached a point where they are genuinely prepared to walk away or you're up against a genuine deadline (as opposed to fake which most deadlines are) and they haven't blinked.

Hard deadlines focus minds and force decision making as there is typically a built in consequence for passing the deadline.

The best example of hard deadlines in popular culture that I'm aware of are the Premier League transfer window deadlines. The current summer transfer window will close at 17:00 BST on Thursday 8 August 2019 and critically it's a hard date/time which is implemented by a third party. Miss registering a player transfer between clubs by the deadline and the window is closed meaning the player has to stay right where he is for another 6 months until the next transfer window opens. Neither the selling club, player or buying club can alter the deadline so if one party is holding out for a better deal they are risking it all if the one of the other parties doesn't blink hence there is typically a slow start to the transfer window as clubs and players can afford to adopt a "wait and see" approach but then a flurry of activity in the final days and hours as options narrow and fears of not getting a deal at all done moves front and centre.

One of the problems with Brexit is the deadline isn't absolutely hard. The UK can and has asked for and received 2 extensions all ready thus relieving the (sometimes helpful) last minute tension which can sometimes help close the gap on whatever the open issues are.

If an ERG type PM materialises who has hostaged themselves to never asking for an extension beyond Oct 31st we might well have an effective hard deadline as the EU are forbidden from either unilaterally extending the deadline or asking the UK to extend.

In such circumstances any potential fudge to deal with the backstop will either emerge at the last minute or the UK will indeed leave without a deal unless of course the HoC intervenes and either forces the sitting PM to seek an extension or succeeds in a no confidence motion thus triggering a general election and giving the new Tory leader/PM cover for seeking an extension even though he/she said they'd never do so but in order to facilitate an election and a fresh mandate from the country blah blah blah

lawred2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Andrew Marr, on BBC last Sunday, ripped her apart on her 'managed deal'. She looked very uncomfortable and easily shaken. That interview probably dashed any faint hope she had. I'd say she used the word 'sensible' about 72 times. Which was ironic considering she was spouting nonsense.

well she was back on that ITV morning rubbish earlier repeating the exact same stuff with a surety that she really shouldn't be possessing.

Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

well she was back on that ITV morning rubbish earlier repeating the exact same stuff with a surety that she really shouldn't be possessing.

Jebus, that Marr interview was a car crash. If that was her pitch then she would, under normal circumstances, be toast for any election. (Sorry, I know it happened on Sunday but only watching it all now)

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

OT, but is that what is at play when we see the long and protracted public pay deals that go on until 4am

No, that's just theatre. Public service union reps have to put on a good show to convince their members they are worth paying, so they delay to the last second and then emerge blinking in the morning light as if they won something useful by it.

Laois_Man

Breaking News: Sky News understands carmaker Ford is expected to announce plans to close its engine plant in Bridgend in south Wales which employs 1,700 people

Cue Farage et al saying "Noting to do with Brexit"!

Itssoeasy

Just breaking on sky news that the car company ford is expected to close its factory in Bridgend which employs 1,700 people. The presenter said tomorrow but I didn't see on the screen where it said that.

devnull

Nothing to do with Brexit, would have happened anyway, we'll hear very soon about the Ford closure.

Am in the UK today, was told by several people ignorant to Irish politics that they hope Trump is going to come to Ireland to sort us out and tell us that we know our place and support the UK.

What makes me laugh the most is
a) They say they like Trump because he puts his country first, and everyone else last
b) They say that they like Farage because he puts his country first and everyone else last

However with the same breath they talk about how Trump will look after the UK and give them a good trade deal, which is kind of at odds with their reasons for liking him so much. They then have serious issues with Leo for putting Ireland first and saying that he should help the UK.

Basically it defies all logic and is a symptom of the superiority complex that many people in the UK have. They feel that they are the most important and best country in the world and that therefore everyone should help them, but they shouldn't have to help everyone else.

Kermit.de.frog

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Just breaking on sky news that the car company ford is expected to close its factory in Bridgend which employs 1,700 people. The presenter said tomorrow but I didn't see on the screen where it said that.

Do know what would help the situation considerably?

If these companies started coming out and saying "This is due to BREXIT"...

But they never do.

MrMusician18

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Just breaking on sky news that the car company ford is expected to close its factory in Bridgend which employs 1,700 people. The presenter said tomorrow but I didn't see on the screen where it said that.

Well it probably would've happened anyway with the transition to electric. They might've gotten a few more years out of it though.

Brexit is making UK plants unattractive for new investment so they can stay relevant after the transition

listermint

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Well it probably would've happened anyway with the transition to electric. They might've gotten a few more years out of it though.

Brexit is making UK plants unattractive for new investment so they can stay relevant after the transition

You know they have to build electric cars.they don't just appear out of nowhere.....

MrMusician18

listermint wrote: »

You know they have to build electric cars.they don't just appear out of nowhere.....

They are far simpler drivetrains than engines. There will be a lot of lay offs across Europe in the car industry.

Think about it, clutches, complicated gearboxes, alternators, engines are just a few of the components that won't be needed anymore.

Spanish Eyes

Laughing a bit here, I doubt anyone who has put themselves forward for PM actually wants it now.

It is surely the kiss of death. Unless one of them when in power revokes on day one.

Can you imagine that? But it really is the most sensible thing to do now, and to hell with the consequences.

Sam Russell

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Laughing a bit here, I doubt anyone who has put themselves forward for PM actually wants it now.

It is surely the kiss of death. Unless one of them when in power revokes on day one.

Can you imagine that? But it really is the most sensible thing to do now, and to hell with the consequences.

Not one of those going for the poisoned chalice have the vision or leadership to do that. They (just like everyone else) do not like the WA, they dare not go with No Deal, and they dare not Revoke.

So what can they do - just kick the can one more time (or perhaps two times - maybe keep on kicking it).

Patser

MrMusician18 wrote: »

They are far simpler drivetrains than engines. There will be a lot of lay offs across Europe in the car industry.

Think about it, clutches, complicated gearboxes, alternators, engines are just a few of the components that won't be needed anymore.

Yes but new things will be needed like alternators that regen energy while braking, batteries, electric motors, charge points (home and larger commercial units), while most other parts (suspension, brakes, chassis frames) will remain. All this will require massive investment, and before anyone will invest, they need clear plans. Brexit muddies all those plans, at a time of upheaval. So just as car manufacturing is at a turning point, Brexit makes Britain even less appealing.

brickster69

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Just breaking on sky news that the car company ford is expected to close its factory in Bridgend which employs 1,700 people. The presenter said tomorrow but I didn't see on the screen where it said that.

Ford makes a loss in Europe and has closed plants in Blanquefort in France, Genk in Belgium, Saarlouis in Germany and plants in Russia also.

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ford-plans-cut-more-5000-jobs-germany



It will look like chicken feed if Trump puts 25% tariffs on EU cars.

MrMusician18

MrMusician18 wrote: »

They are far simpler drivetrains than engines. There will be a lot of lay offs across Europe in the car industry.

Think about it, clutches, complicated gearboxes, alternators, engines are just a few of the components that won't be needed anymore.

Correct, plus the inconvenient truth that car manufacturere have been overproducing for the past few years and cars are now lasting longer, coupled with the fact that fewer people are motoring these days as cars "go out of fashion".


If that wasn't enough, the Chinese (cars) are coming!

Spanish Eyes

Sam Russell wrote: »

Not one of those going for the poisoned chalice have the vision or leadership to do that. They (just like everyone else) do not like the WA, they dare not go with No Deal, and they dare not Revoke.

So what can they do - just kick the can one more time (or perhaps two times - maybe keep on kicking it).

Well for what it's worth, I think a lot of people in UK and business especially would actually exhale if A50 was revoked now, on the premise that a new and vibrant exit mechanism could be negotiated in time.

It is just a total disaster at the moment. Everyone knows it, but no one, as you say, has the cojones to call it out right now.

It will take a good leader to do that. And there is no one ready to do that now. It is just such a mess.

Patser

Worth pointing out that the Ford plant that's rumoured to be closing produces one of Fords most economical petrol engines - so the refrain of diesel sales drying up is not relevant here.

listermint

MrMusician18 wrote: »

They are far simpler drivetrains than engines. There will be a lot of lay offs across Europe in the car industry.

Think about it, clutches, complicated gearboxes, alternators, engines are just a few of the components that won't be needed anymore.

I don't know why I bother.


Did you even read the post...