Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2

10000maniacs wrote: »

Even the DUP's spin is starting to sound non-confident these days. There are worried people in that party.
They have boxed themselves into supporting no deal against the will of their own constituents.

why would this realisation surprise them?

murphaph

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, really.

While it's true that the UK could check passports of departing passengers to see if they have overstayed their visas, they don't do so systematically at present, and they don't intend to in the future. Their policy will be to admit EU citizens quite freely, and to prevent them from settling through the use of in-country controls - you'll need to demonstrate your migration status to take a job, rent accommodation, enroll your kids in school, register with a GP practice, that kind of thing.

This isn't a new thing. There are about 50 (non-EU) countries whose citizens already have visa-free access to the UK, and in-country controls are in use right now to prevent them from settling.

Entering the UK across the RoI/NI border will (as now) be perfectly legitimate, and won't be an effective way of circumventing those in-country controls.

You really think there aren't hordes of illegal migrant workers in the UK today? The Polish plumber who's legal can easily hire a few illegals from his village back home and pay them whatever he likes.

These in country controls don't work. If they did the UK (and the rest of the developed world) could stop wasting time and money on all immigration controls at the border.

jem

At this stage with Bj as pm I thing there is 4 possibilities
1. Borris wants a deal calls an election for sept, gets enough seats to drop the DUP and there is a customs border down the Irish Sea.
2. Borris wants no deal waits until oct and calls an election for very early November. with HOC not sitting no way for them to prevent crash out which they do on 31/10
3. Borris/ HOC decides to put back to people in 2nd ref question(s) depending on the result he wants( thinks he can win)
4. HOC takes control and revokes A50 to start again ( im not sure if this is possible and could be classed as a money bill which only the Govt can propose)

Have to say that options 1&2 are far more likly In my opinion and which happens is a tossup.

Laois_Man

Igotadose wrote: »

Too bad the eejits on Newstalk this morning hadn't read this. They were blathering Bruce Arnold's sh1te and 'asking for texts.' Also mentioned that the Johnson government has 1 billion pounds budgeted for 'no deal Brexit.' Have heard about 100 million pounds for the advertising campaign, the 1 billion's news to me.

CNN has a piece on the UK car industry basically going away if there's a no-deal Brexit. Well, as Johnson(?) said, "F**k business."

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/31/business/uk-car-industry-brexit/index.html

They've already spent £4.2 Billion and are still nowhere near ready!

10000maniacs

Laois_Man wrote: »

But not against the will of their own voters!

I wouldn't be too sure about their voters either. I'd say a large percentage of their voters are going to be hit hard in a no deal scenario.

FrancieBrady

Laois_Man wrote: »

But not against the will of their own voters!

I think if an indicative vote was allowed with the options and consequences for NI clearly laid out that the DUP might face a fair hiding tbh.

lawred2

murphaph wrote: »

You really think there aren't hordes of illegal migrant workers in the UK today? The Polish plumber who's legal can easily hire a few illegals from his village back home and pay them whatever he likes.

These in country controls don't work. If they did the UK (and the rest of the developed world) could stop wasting time and money on all immigration controls at the border.

why would Polish villagers be illegal migrant workers in the UK?

They may be working in the black market but that would be a matter for the employer.

Stop moaning ffs

10000maniacs wrote: »

I wouldn't be too sure about their voters either. I'd say a large percentage of their voters are going to be hit hard in a no deal scenario.

Haven’t the farming and business organisations come out hard against them?
Seem to remember reading here that they’ve pulled financial support for the DUP too

Laois_Man

jem wrote: »

At this stage with Bj as pm I thing there is 4 possibilities
1. Borris wants a deal calls an election for sept, gets enough seats to drop the DUP and there is a customs border down the Irish Sea.
2. Borris wants no deal waits until oct and calls an election for very early November. with HOC not sitting no way for them to prevent crash out which they do on 31/10
3. Borris/ HOC decides to put back to people in 2nd ref question(s) depending on the result he wants( thinks he can win)
4. HOC takes control and revokes A50 to start again ( im not sure if this is possible and could be classed as a money bill which only the Govt can propose)

Have to say that options 1&2 are far more likly In my opinion and which happens is a tossup.

My prediction is a different variation of #1

Johnson calls an election and, combined with The Brexit Party does not get an overall majority, or possibly gets one so small that he still can't achieve anything (as Teresa May had before the 2017 election). More likely in my view, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP and/or Greens form a coalition (on the condition that Corbyn gets lost) and everything starts becoming sane again. I doubt all of that will happen before October 31st - they may crash out, but the new government under a new Labour PM (Keir Starmer??) will go back to the table and do a deal reasonably quickly!

Imreoir2

murphaph wrote: »

These in country controls don't work. If they did the UK (and the rest of the developed world) could stop wasting time and money on all immigration controls at the border.

Don't work to do what exactly? If you want a subclass of cheep labour with few rights who can easily be gotten rid of if they step out of line, then they work quite well.

robinph

jem wrote: »

At this stage with Bj as pm I thing there is 4 possibilities
1. Borris wants a deal calls an election for sept, gets enough seats to drop the DUP and there is a customs border down the Irish Sea.
2. Borris wants no deal waits until oct and calls an election for very early November. with HOC not sitting no way for them to prevent crash out which they do on 31/10
3. Borris/ HOC decides to put back to people in 2nd ref question(s) depending on the result he wants( thinks he can win)
4. HOC takes control and revokes A50 to start again ( im not sure if this is possible and could be classed as a money bill which only the Govt can propose)

Have to say that options 1&2 are far more likly In my opinion and which happens is a tossup.

Number 2 can't happen without the HoC agreeing to it, well neither can number 1 but they are more likely to let that happen.
Number 3 isn't going to happen as too many people have decided that holding a referendum is undemocratic.
Number 4 can happen in that the HoC is still likely to take control of something somehow, unfortunately what they won't do is actually make a decision other than "not that".

Only way out is a GE, but not around the end of October as the HoC isn't that stupid.
Or they change the way of holding votes in the HoC so that they have a choice between thing A or thing B, rather than a vote on yay/nay for thing A and then separately yay/nay for thing B.

Option A or B could be on deal v 2nd vote, but I can't see the HoC making a definitive choice in any way on their own other than to block no deal repeatedly.

Sam Russell

Imreoir2 wrote: »

In the event of a UI, there is no land border to harden. Joining Schengen before a UI happens would be a breach of the GFA.

After a UI the GFA would most likely have to be replaced by a successor agreement, though this is not spelled out in the GFA itself. It is likely that there would be a new agreement between Ireland and Britain setting out the new relationship and allowing for the continuation of some of the provisions of the GFA like continued access to dual citizenship in NI and the continuation of the GFA institutions like the British/Irish Council and possibly a devolution settlement for NI within the Irish state.

The CTA is not based on a law, but on a protocol (as I understand it). The is a memorandum of understanding (unpublished).

Irish Citizens are not Aliens under British Law (1949 Ireland Act).

The CTA has a great effect on Irish Citizens living and settled in the UK, and have a status equivalent to a British citizen. They can vote in all elections, and are entitled to all benefits that a UK citizen has.

The CTA can be revoked by either side, but it should be remembered that Irish Citizens have a legal backing in the UK granted by the Ireland Act (1949).

jem

Laois_Man wrote: »

My prediction is a different variation of #1

Johnson calls an election and, combined with The Brexit Party does not get an overall majority, or possibly gets one so small that he still can't achieve anything (as Teresa May had before the 2017 election). More likely in my view, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP and/or Greens form a coalition (on the condition that Corbyn gets lost) and everything starts becoming sane again. I doubt all of that will happen before October 31st - they may crash out, but the new government under a new Labour PM (Keir Starmer??) will go back to the table and do a deal reasonably quickly!

If labour had a decent leader I am very confident they would lead the next UK govt however it is dam hard to get rid on him as was shown in 2016 when the vast majority of the parlimentary party wanted rid but the members (mainly momentium) voted him back in with a higher % than he got the first time.
I believe that H benn would have the best chance of beating corbyn with his family history (tony Benn) and his own ability.

robinph

Sam Russell wrote: »

The CTA has a great effect on Irish Citizens living and settled in the UK, and have a status equivalent to a British citizen. They can vote in all elections, and are entitled to all benefits that a UK citizen has.

Irish citizens have more rights in the UK than UK citizens do in Ireland, admittedly it is only referendums and presidential elections that UK citizens don't get to take part in.

jem

robinph wrote: »

Number 2 can't happen without the HoC agreeing to it, well neither can number 1 but they are more likely to let that happen.

Tecnically no cant happen due to the fixed term rule however iF borris goes to queen stating that he no-longer has the confidence of the HOC she can/will disolve. Remember the mojority including the DUP will probably be down to 1 in next few days.

robinph

jem wrote: »

Tecnically no cant happen due to the fixed term rule however iF borris goes to queen stating that he no-longer has the confidence of the HOC she can/will disolve. Remember the mojority including the DUP will probably be down to 1 in next few days.

If Johnson says he doesn't have the confidence then the HoC gets two weeks to come up with an alternative I think before a GE is triggered. As long as someone other than Corbyn becomes the figure head then they could probably be PM for the duration of a couple of weeks and do "something" else.

The something could be merely to request an extension and then call a GE themselves

Sam Russell

jem wrote: »

Tecnically no cant happen due to the fixed term rule however iF borris goes to queen stating that he no-longer has the confidence of the HOC she can/will disolve. Remember the mojority including the DUP will probably be down to 1 in next few days.

No, if he goes to Her Maj, she cannot call a GE without 2/3rd approval of the HoC. Instead they can suggest a PM who can command a majority. Now if 30 or so Tories back a Gov of National Unity, then they form such with a PM nominated by the combined opposition, and they form the Gov.

First item would be Revoke Art 50 and be done with Brexit.

VinLieger

Sam Russell wrote: »

First item would be Revoke Art 50 and be done with Brexit.

Even if they managed to revoke the UK will not be done with Brexit for a long long time

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

No, if he goes to Her Maj, she cannot call a GE without 2/3rd approval of the HoC. Instead they can suggest a PM who can command a majority. Now if 30 or so Tories back a Gov of National Unity, then they form such with a PM nominated by the combined opposition, and they form the Gov.

First item would be Revoke Art 50 and be done with Brexit.

..meanwhile outside on the streets chaos reigns.

I don't think we will ever again see a modern so called democracy so utterly paralyse itself as our neighbour has been doing.

Imreoir2

Laois_Man wrote: »

My prediction is a different variation of #1

Johnson calls an election and, combined with The Brexit Party does not get an overall majority, or possibly gets one so small that he still can't achieve anything (as Teresa May had before the 2017 election). More likely in my view, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP and/or Greens form a coalition (on the condition that Corbyn gets lost) and everything starts becoming sane again. I doubt all of that will happen before October 31st - they may crash out, but the new government under a new Labour PM (Keir Starmer??) will go back to the table and do a deal reasonably quickly!

I am more pesimistic, if Johnson calls an election I think he will win and I think the momentum to a no-deal Brexit will be too hard to break at this point. There is massive, even if not majority, support for no-deal in the UK at this point, and it seems to be far more motivated than those who should be putting a stop to it.

We will have a no-deal crash and a Johnson lead government trying to lead Britain through a disasterous Brexit with the "Blitz Spirit". A much damaged UK will emerge in a few years time having been forced to pick up the peices and only then will a moderate leadership emerge to do a reasonable deal.

Sam Russell

VinLieger wrote: »

Even if they managed to revoke the UK will not be done with Brexit for a long long time

Well, they could include a clause that would require a 2/3rd majority vote to invoke Art 50 in the future. Now that could be overturned but that would be much harder than the current requirement.

Now, all that is possible - whether it is likely is a different matter.

murphaph

lawred2 wrote: »

why would Polish villagers be illegal migrant workers in the UK?

They may be working in the black market but that would be a matter for the employer.

Post Brexit the doors slam shut on legal migration from Poland but illegal migration will continue. There are a million Poles in the UK. They can act as the front and employ the new arrivals illegally in their firms.

It's how Paddy gets work in Boston to this day.

Imreoir2

robinph wrote: »

Irish citizens have more rights in the UK than UK citizens do in Ireland, admittedly it is only referendums and presidential elections that UK citizens don't get to take part in.

Irish citizens in the UK don't get to vote for their head of state, why should they get to vote for ours?

MrMusician18

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I am more pesimistic, if Johnson calls an election I think he will win and I think the momentum to a no-deal Brexit will be too hard to break at this point. There is massive, even if not majority, support for no-deal in the UK at this point, and it seems to be far more motivated than those who should be putting a stop to it.

We will have a no-deal crash and a Johnson lead government trying to lead Britain through a disasterous Brexit with the "Blitz Spirit". A much damaged UK will emerge in a few years time having been forced to pick up the peices and only then will a moderate leadership emerge to do a reasonable deal.

Wasn't the blitz spirit largely a fiction invented in the decades after the war.

One would expect a great deal of disharmony if the consequence is a deep recession. They're wasn't much blitz spirit here during the 2008-12 crisis, one would expect similar or worse in a relatively similar country.

Igotadose

murphaph wrote: »

Post Brexit the doors slam shut on legal migration from Poland but illegal migration will continue. There are a million Poles in the UK. They can act as the front and employ the new arrivals illegally in their firms.

It's how Paddy gets work in Boston to this day.

Hmm... Post-Brexit, the immigration doors *can* slam shut. It's never that clearcut in politics. Plus the immigration doors were closeable in the past, but HMG chose to do nothing effective as far as I can see, more content to blame the EU for its problems.

And a million Poles resident in the UK are impacting the economy. Make it unpleasant for them, make it impossible to bring in more workers, might mean HMG decides not to slam doors.

Stop moaning ffs

Interesting idea.
This £2 billion no deal brexit fund they’ve just pulled out from the back of the sofa is more about election promises than it is preparedness for brexit.

storker

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Wasn't the blitz spirit largely a fiction invented in the decades after the war.

I don't think Johnson or his government are overly concerned with the difference between fact and fiction. Why start now...?

J Mysterio

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1156874248851460096

It's never been about the backstop for these people . That is just a handy hook to hang their hats on. They want no deal

Unbelievable. 60? Determined to destroy their country. As they wish.

robinph

Imreoir2 wrote: »

robinph wrote: »

Irish citizens have more rights in the UK than UK citizens do in Ireland, admittedly it is only referendums and presidential elections that UK citizens don't get to take part in.

Irish citizens in the UK don't get to vote for their head of state, why should they get to vote for ours?

But neither do the UK citizens get that vote.

Of course everyone is free to vote for a republican party if they wanted to.

Imreoir2

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Wasn't the blitz spirit largely a fiction invented in the decades after the war.

One would expect a great deal of disharmony if the consequence is a deep recession. They're wasn't much blitz spirit here during the 2008-12 crisis, one would expect similar or worse in a relatively similar country.

That may well be entirely true. Now, do you think that will stop a Johnson led governemnt envoking the blitz spirit as a cover for their own incompetance?

As I said, the UK will be severly damaged by a no-deal Brexit. The blitz spirit stuff is just window dressing.