Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Laois_Man

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I am more pesimistic, if Johnson calls an election I think he will win and I think the momentum to a no-deal Brexit will be too hard to break at this point. There is massive, even if not majority, support for no-deal in the UK at this point, and it seems to be far more motivated than those who should be putting a stop to it.

We will have a no-deal crash and a Johnson lead government trying to lead Britain through a disasterous Brexit with the "Blitz Spirit". A much damaged UK will emerge in a few years time having been forced to pick up the peices and only then will a moderate leadership emerge to do a reasonable deal.

In the latest opinion poll relating to your assertion (July 16th), the following question was asked:

Do you agree or disagree that, ‘If Boris Johnson is the next Prime Minister and is unable to get a better deal from the EU by the 31st of October, the UK should just leave without a deal’?

The results show it pretty neck-and-neck between the agrees and disagrees ("strongly" and "somewhat" combined)

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-agree-or-disagree-that-if-boris-johnson-is-the-next-prime-minister-and-is-unable-to-get-a-better-deal-from-the-eu-by-the-31st-of-october-the-uk-should-just-leave-without-a-deal/?groups%5B0%5D%5B0%5D=Strongly%2Bagree&groups%5B0%5D%5B1%5D=Somewhat%2Bagree&groups%5B1%5D%5B3%5D=Somewhat%2Bdisagree&groups%5B1%5D%5B4%5D=Strongly%2Bdisagree

FrancieBrady

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Border in the sea would be a massive boost and success for NIs economy. Thee have the best of both worlds.

Our dear friends in the DUP are blocking it because an imaginary border in the water somehow makes them less Britishness and taken out of the United Kingdom to use their language.

So the whole of Northern Ireland is going to suffer because of their identity insecurities.


That said it’s looking like Boris is lining up to find support / votes elsewhere so he can dump the DUP, put the border in the sea and hey presto brexit is delivered.


The unionists all low this is happening if twister is any indication. The dogs in the street everywhere know this is the most likely and only sensible option remaining

Not sure of this anymore.

Boris has boxed himself into a corner here. He has said very loudly, 'pull the entire backstop out' or we exit with No Deal.

Not seeing a way for him to back out of that by opting for a sea border.

Strazdas

Russman wrote: »

Exactly, in a similar vein to how they managed to make "take back control" the defining slogan of the original referendum and debate.
How it was rarely (if ever) seriously challenged is beyond me.

Yes, that was a brilliant slogan and an effective one, but completely meaningless - take back control of what exactly and from whom?

McMurphy

BluePlanet wrote: »

After BoJo had a private dinner with the DUP i am highly doubting he's going to turn around the throw them under the bus.
We are hard brexiting and i believe there'll be no border poll.

Well considering the rhetoric being spouted from Arlene and pals, it would be plausible that the dinner Boris had with them was to tell them to tighten up and brace themselves, that then alternative could be much, much worse.

I'm having an open mind about the dinner for now.

Stop moaning ffs

BluePlanet wrote: »

After BoJo had a private dinner with the DUP i am highly doubting he's going to turn around the throw them under the bus.
We are hard brexiting and i believe there'll be no border poll.

That dinner is exactly why he’ll sell them down the river.
The last supper / Judas analogy is kind of delicious

If you can’t placate the unionists you buy them off. It was ever thus and remains the status quo.


He might have even explained to them at dinner his plan they just have to play along and formulate a way to climb down and spin it.

As they did just yesterday by explaining way their £1 billion bribe from May.

ancapailldorcha

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Ok guys, excellent thread, and I only occasionally dip in and out.

From what I am hearing, it would seem that the most likely upcoming scenario (most likely but not a cert) we are facing could be a border in the Irish sea.

I would assume this would be the best possible scenario we could hope for? And in layman's terms, how "bad" would this be for us in the long run, if at all?

Thanks in advance.

Peregrinus has an excellent post here as to how Johnson might engineer NI remaining inside the Single Market and Customs Union.

By "us", I assume you mean Ireland as a whole including NI. I think the best scenario there is, unsurprisingly canning Brexit.

I don't know how likely leaving NI in the single market and customs union is. However, if it happens, it will be a much lesser evil for both sides of the border in terms of trade, commuting, employment and political tensions not being stoked. It does mean that NI will be aligned with Dublin and Brussels rather than London though and may encourage the SNP to agitate for equal treatment for Scotland if not an outright Indyref2. If this happens, I would hope that the EU continues its programme of supporting cross-border projects such as the PEACE programme.

This won't help Irish exporters to mainland Britain though which would make up the bulk of exports to the UK market. It's really horrible for those whose livelihoods depend on such trade. I hope they won't be hit too hard and that the government has tried to help them access EU markets to supplant that of the UK.

robinph

fash wrote: »

UK citizens have reciprocal rights in relation to the respective constitutions.
When Irish can elect the Queen and vote to change the UK Constitution, they will be entitled to do so in Ireland

The Irish in the UK would get a vote in any such referendum in the UK the same as any UK citizen would. Irish citizens in the UK got a vote in Brexit and the Scottish independence referendum which were pretty fundamental constitutional questions regarding the future of the country.

UK residents in Ireland would not have got a vote in the marriage referendum which whilst it was a major social change, doesn't really change the makeup of the country in anyway.

Getting off track now, but the point was merely that Irish in the UK are considered 100% equivalent to UK citizens in the UK. The opposite is not quite true, although close.

BluePlanet

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

He might have even explained to them at dinner his plan they just have to play along and formulate a way to climb down and spin it.

As they did just yesterday by explaining way their £1 billion bribe from May.

What did they do yesterday?

I also think SF are firing too early for a border poll.
I don't think it would go the way we want, and then it would set-back unification for another generation.
We need to let Brexit bite.

Stop moaning ffs

BluePlanet wrote: »

What did they do yesterday?

I also think SF are firing too early for a border poll.
I don't think it would go the way we want, and then it would set-back unification for another generation.
We need to let Brexit bite.

They spun their billion pound bribe..what, two years after getting it? This also a preamble to a further two billion bribe/payoff from Boris.
https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1156654452973166593?s=21

Russman

BluePlanet wrote: »

What did they do yesterday?

I also think SF are firing too early for a border poll.
I don't think it would go the way we want, and then it would set-back unification for another generation.
We need to let Brexit bite.

I tend to agree with this. It'll take something extraordinary (like the impact of a crash-out) to focus minds on reality up there, and especially to change a few minds. Until that happens it will all be written off as "Project Fear".

Imreoir2

Laois_Man wrote: »

In the latest opinion poll relating to your assertion (July 16th), the following question was asked:

Do you agree or disagree that, ‘If Boris Johnson is the next Prime Minister and is unable to get a better deal from the EU by the 31st of October, the UK should just leave without a deal’?

The results show it pretty neck-and-neck between the agrees and disagrees ("strongly" and "somewhat" combined)

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-agree-or-disagree-that-if-boris-johnson-is-the-next-prime-minister-and-is-unable-to-get-a-better-deal-from-the-eu-by-the-31st-of-october-the-uk-should-just-leave-without-a-deal/?groups%5B0%5D%5B0%5D=Strongly%2Bagree&groups%5B0%5D%5B1%5D=Somewhat%2Bagree&groups%5B1%5D%5B3%5D=Somewhat%2Bdisagree&groups%5B1%5D%5B4%5D=Strongly%2Bdisagree

This is the elephant in the room for remainers. While it is true that no-one voted for no-deal, many many people now support no-deal in the UK. The only way to put the UK back together at this point is to show them the error in their ways be giving them what they want, painful as that may be for the rest of us.

ancapailldorcha

Imreoir2 wrote: »

This is the elephant in the room for remainers. While it is true that no-one voted for no-deal, many many people now support no-deal in the UK. The only way to put the UK back together at this point is to show them the error in their ways be giving them what they want, painful as that may be for the rest of us.

The economic devastation that the Brexiters want to unleash upon the working classes as part of their odious disaster capitalist project isn't going to put anything back together, not even the Conservative party. Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely agitate to leave the UK while jobs, money, investment and people trickle out to Ireland and the continent.

Laois_Man

The HoC's/Tory Party's very own Reg Holdsworth is reiterating his stance from last week - that the ERG will vote down the WA even if the backstop is entirely removed. Although this time he puts a number on it - 60 of them will vote it down

Dozens of hardline Brexiteer MPs are vowing to vote down the Withdrawal Agreement even if it does not include the backstop, after Boris Johnson suggests there will be a transition period.

Mark Francois, the vice chairman of the European Research Group, warned of a "running Parliamentary war probably for at least a month" if Mr Johnson tries to force the agreement through the Commons.

Mr Johnson wants the European Union to agree to remove the 200 page long section covering the Northern Ireland backstop in Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement to get the deal approved by MPs.

However Mr Francois said that Tory members of the ERG on the backbenches - now understood to be around 60 - would vote down any...

....the rest is paywalled

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/01/sixty-backbench-tories-will-vote-withdrawal-agreement-even-irish/

Strazdas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

This is the elephant in the room for remainers. While it is true that no-one voted for no-deal, many many people now support no-deal in the UK. The only way to put the UK back together at this point is to show them the error in their ways be giving them what they want, painful as that may be for the rest of us.

The problem is that so many Leave voters have been brainwashed by the right wing rags and Farage that they have no comprehension of what No Deal means. They probably think it will be scarcely any different to their personal situation right now.

Imreoir2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The economic devastation that the Brexiters want to unleash upon the working classes as part of their odious disaster capitalist project isn't going to put anything back together, not even the Conservative party. Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely agitate to leave the UK while jobs, money, investment and people trickle out to Ireland and the continent.

No, but I have to believe that eventually the Brexit revolution will eat its own children and a moderate reaction will at some point be forced to act and get a grip on things again. So far, all we have seen is an abdication of responsibility from the centre, allowing the looney fringes to run the madhouse.

PeadarCo

Laois_Man wrote:

The HoC's/Tory Party's very own Reg Holdsworth is reiterating his stance from last week - that the ERG will vote down the WA even if the backstop is entirely removed. Although this time he puts a number on it - 60 of them will vote it down

Johnson is barely in the job a week and he is already being undermined. This damages his request to get the backstop removed as it wouldn't be enough to get the WA through.

trellheim

Mark Francois is bogeyman level stuff - Steve Baker not taking a junior ministerial post was an interesting warning shot to show that the hardliners are still there and not taking part in the comedy

ancapailldorcha

Imreoir2 wrote: »

No, but I have to believe that eventually the Brexit revolution will eat its own children and a moderate reaction will at some point be forced to act and get a grip on things again. So far, all we have seen is an abdication of responsibility from the centre, allowing the looney fringes to run the madhouse.

It won't. It's turned on the media, Parliament, anyone with a different opinion, the Bank of England, the BBC, etc.. It just keeps moving from one target to another because it knows deep down that getting this thing across the line was a fluke built on lies and subterfuge. They're using extremist language to try and drag the UK out before it's too late and they know that Parliament can push Johnson aside and take over the process as it did before. This is why proroguing Parliament was in vogue recently amongst Brexiters.

There's too much at stake to simply let this happen. Millions of people moved here in good faith from the EU. A lot of people in deprived areas stand to get much poorer and not all of them voted for Brexit. Of those who did, some would vote remain. I think they deserve that chance. And then there's the supply chains and Ireland's high amount of trade with the UK. People deserve a second chance to abort this charade.

Nody

Laois_Man wrote: »

The HoC's/Tory Party's very own Reg Holdsworth is reiterating his stance from last week - that the ERG will vote down the WA even if the backstop is entirely removed. Although this time he puts a number on it - 60 of them will vote it down

Same ERG that were going to oust May in the Tory leadership vote due to their numbers etc.? Sorry if I don't trust their claims of actual votes.

Stop moaning ffs

Leo earlier today states ‘everyone should be afraid of a no deal brexit’

Cut to twitter. And actual respected news sources.

‘Leo Varadkar says he is afraid of no deal brexit’

Mere hours after accusing him of being in charge of project fear MKii




Jesus

Limpy

I don't see how half the population are brainwashed or were sheeply led to vote leave. Sure, many people voted blindly but to say the leave side are all just and righteous voters is silly.
Farage took advantage of the Syria immigrant situation which was a real issue with voters. He got votes for it.

David Cameron was only elected because he promised a vote. Remember that.

They won the vote. So if that's democracy they should get there wish.

VinLieger

Limpy wrote: »

I don't see how half the population are brainwashed or were sheeply led to vote leave. Sure, many people voted blindly but to say the leave side are all just and righteous voters is silly.
Farage took advantage of the Syria immigrant situation which was a real issue with voters. He got votes for it.

David Cameron was only elected because he promised a vote. Remember that.

They won the vote. So if that's democracy they should get there wish.

They also lied and cheated MASSIVELY

fash

robinph wrote: »

The Irish in the UK would get a vote in any such referendum in the UK the same as any UK citizen would. Irish citizens in the UK got a vote in Brexit and the Scottish independence referendum which were pretty fundamental constitutional questions regarding the future of the country.

UK residents in Ireland would not have got a vote in the marriage referendum which whilst it was a major social change, doesn't really change the makeup of the country in anyway.

Getting off track now, but the point was merely that Irish in the UK are considered 100% equivalent to UK citizens in the UK. The opposite is not quite true, although close.

The brexit vote even if dramatic in consequence- was a non binding plebiscite, referendums in Ireland change the Constitution - so something of a difference. If the UK wrote down their Constitution and have Irish citizens a right to vote, I would fully accept your position however.

Strazdas

Limpy wrote: »

I don't see how half the population are brainwashed or were sheeply led to vote leave. Sure, many people voted blindly but to say the leave side are all just and righteous voters is silly.
Farage took advantage of the Syria immigrant situation which was a real issue with voters. He got votes for it.

David Cameron was only elected because he promised a vote. Remember that.

They won the vote. So if that's democracy they should get there wish.

No, they genuinely hate the EU and want to leave. But the problem is they don't realise that 'leaving the EU' after 50 years is an absolute nightmare and could take a decade (during which time their economy will take a hammering). A lot of them seem to have regarded the Leave vote as being like cancelling their Sky Sports subscription or their gym membership.

Walter Bishop

Limpy wrote: »

I don't see how half the population are brainwashed or were sheeply led to vote leave. Sure, many people voted blindly but to say the leave side are all just and righteous voters is silly.
Farage took advantage of the Syria immigrant situation which was a real issue with voters. He got votes for it.

David Cameron was only elected because he promised a vote. Remember that.

They won the vote. So if that's democracy they should get there wish.

The UK has accepted somewhere over 10,000 refugees from Syria in the last few years https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43826163 - it doesn't seem an excessive amount considering these people were fleeing a war zone.


Leave voters were fed a diet of 'sovereignty' which seems to have been enough for many to vote Leave, others wanted to give a dig at the government, still others seem to have actually believed the '350m a week' stuff, and others just want fewer brown people in their area.


They were promised the sun the moon and the stars, all the benefits of the EU with none of the downside, 'easiest trade deal ever', 'they need us more than we need them' and now they can see that none of that was true, there may be quite a bit of buyers remorse out there.


So it is indeed fair to say that not everyone who voted Leave is a racist, but it's probably fair to say that everyone who's a racist voted Leave. Then you have the people who are lashing out at a system that has abandoned them, and those who didn't educate themselves sufficently on it or just voted with their emotions.

Valhallapt

BluePlanet wrote: »

What did they do yesterday?

I also think SF are firing too early for a border poll.
I don't think it would go the way we want, and then it would set-back unification for another generation.
We need to let Brexit bite.

If one was an ardent republican, the best possible outcome is a no deal. The NI economy will tank (although it’s already at the bottom), if the U.K. don’t initially have border checks specific industries in NI could easily be picked off, dump tariff free product onto the market. Farming (mainly unionist) will be decimated. When it comes to a border poll, it’s all about the economy(well not all but it’ll be a massive factor)

Shelga

Have there been any detailed studies done about how NI might be integrated into the rest of Ireland? Not just financially, but also politically, culturally etc. People seem to think that a vote to reunify Ireland is it, job done. In reality we would be looking at another 10-20 years of pain, and half of the population still not really wanting to be part of Ireland.

What would happen to all the bunting??

How much would we have to spend per year to accommodate this project?

I, for one, have massive misgivings about it, as I'm sure many others do.

What happens if there's a no-deal Brexit, and in 2-3 years time, 55% of the population of NI vote to reunite with Ireland, but 51% of people in the Republic reject it? Would the referenda be held at the same time?

Sorry for all the questions, I am just alarmed, quite frankly, at taking on NI, having spent a lot of time up there in the last few years. It's a completely different place.

BluePlanet

Infairness, they have assembled a pretty handsome war-chest of stimulus spending, which may mitigate some of that Brexit pain.

J Mysterio

Seriously. People like this are influencing others.

https://twitter.com/benhabib6/status/1156905045239185410

'You couldn't have a border here, so there will be no border'.

Kermit.de.frog

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Leo earlier today states ‘everyone should be afraid of a no deal brexit’

Cut to twitter. And actual respected news sources.

‘Leo Varadkar says he is afraid of no deal brexit’

Mere hours after accusing him of being in charge of project fear MKii




Jesus

In fairness Varadkar really does need to use his words more carefully in all sorts of ways not just Brexit.