Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

funkey_monkey

Apologies if this has already been posted, but it is a good thread and gives a good synopsis of the backstop and its need:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1156469384652701697.html

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

Mark Francois is bogeyman level stuff - Steve Baker not taking a junior ministerial post was an interesting warning shot to show that the hardliners are still there and not taking part in the comedy

Yes indeed, the ERG appear to be now 'outside the tent', not in.

Stop moaning ffs

Shelga wrote: »

Have there been any detailed studies done about how NI might be integrated into the rest of Ireland? Not just financially, but also politically, culturally etc. People seem to think that a vote to reunify Ireland is it, job done. In reality we would be looking at another 10-20 years of pain, and half of the population still not really wanting to be part of Ireland.

What would happen to all the bunting??

How much would we have to spend per year to accommodate this project?

I, for one, have massive misgivings about it, as I'm sure many others do.

What happens if there's a no-deal Brexit, and in 2-3 years time, 55% of the population of NI vote to reunite with Ireland, but 51% of people in the Republic reject it? Would the referenda be held at the same time?

Sorry for all the questions, I am just alarmed, quite frankly, at taking on NI, having spent a lot of time up there in the last few years. It's a completely different place.

Referenda on the same day in NI and here.
All that’s needed is 50+1 in both results.

We do referendums better than anyone. We’d have the citizens assemblies north and south beforehand and safe to say all future nuts and bolts on expenditures and all of it including integration of society explored.

It won’t be a surprise ref like Cameron and brexit at all.

Our civil service are world class at mapping all this stuff out and presenting govt with the information and details.

Now if it was to pass up north and it was a no vote down here, or vice versa, that would be unexpected. Things then Would just remain as they are.

J Mysterio

J Mysterio wrote: »

Seriously. People like this are influencing others.

https://twitter.com/benhabib6/status/1156905045239185410

'You couldn't have a border here, so there will be no border'.

Probably a good thing they didn't spread word too widely of where they'd be. :P

Water John

The fall in sterling means it's now below parity on Foreign Exchange at airports.

'Sterling’s fall will be felt immediately by holidaymakers abroad. At airports, travellers have been getting less than a euro and little more than a dollar for each £1.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/01/pound-sinks-to-fresh-low-against-dollar-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears-sterling

First sense of reality for ordinary British people.

Kermit.de.frog

J Mysterio wrote: »

Seriously. People like this are influencing others.

https://twitter.com/benhabib6/status/1156905045239185410

'You couldn't have a border here, so there will be no border'.

Is that Kate Hoey in the background?

Figures.

swampgas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In fairness Varadkar really does need to use his words more carefully in all sorts of ways not just Brexit.

To be fair though, with such willingness to distort anything he says to suit a certain agenda, there isn't much he can say that can't be twisted to suit the Brexit agenda. His meaning was very clear, it was deliberately misrepresented. I get annoyed when Irish or EU leaders are castigated when making reasonable points in plain English for somehow being reckless with their choice of words.

If the lunatics in the UK are going to twist what you say regardless - you might as well express yourself as best you can without excessive self-censorship.

Kermit.de.frog

swampgas wrote: »

To be fair though, with such willingness to distort anything he says to suit a certain agenda, there isn't much he can say that can't be twisted to suit the Brexit agenda. His meaning was very clear, it was deliberately misrepresented. I get annoyed when Irish or EU leaders are castigated when making reasonable points in plain English for somehow being reckless with their choice of words.

If the lunatics in the UK are going to twist what you say regardless - you might as well express yourself as best you can without excessive self-censorship.

That's the downside of social media unfortunately. Everything will be twisted by some for their own echo chambers.

It's why political discourse has become so debased and you end up with a Trump and a Johnson.

J Mysterio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is that Kate Hoey in the background?

Figures.

haha, I think it is actually. The perfect guide for his visit.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

Seriously. People like this are influencing others.

https://twitter.com/benhabib6/status/1156905045239185410

'You couldn't have a border here, so there will be no border'.

He doesn't seem to be aware that was a security and militarised border for two decades at least with thousands of troops and police either side.

Stop moaning ffs

Strazdas wrote: »

He doesn't seem to be aware that was a security and militarised border for two decades at least with thousands of troops and police either side.

With any luck he’s taken apart for this in the news or somewhere. Anywhere

Limpy

Water John wrote: »

The fall in sterling means it's now below parity on Foreign Exchange at airports.

'Sterling’s fall will be felt immediately by holidaymakers abroad. At airports, travellers have been getting less than a euro and little more than a dollar for each £1.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/01/pound-sinks-to-fresh-low-against-dollar-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears-sterling

First sense of reality for ordinary British people.

Brittish online retail sales will surge and holidays to the UK will also. If the pound stays weak that is.

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

He doesn't seem to be aware that was a security and militarised border for two decades at least with thousands of troops and police either side.

Not just troops and police, but a fair number of dead bodies ended up either side of the border - either killed there by one side or the other, or dumped there.

It is not possible for a hard border to be imposed without a return to those times.

Many Tories mention the different currencies and Vat rates as if that makes a border. Well locals have two purses, and buy whatever is cheaper on both sides of the border, but do not carry a passport, or get inspected as to what they have purchased.

Kermit.de.frog

J Mysterio wrote: »

haha, I think it is actually. The perfect guide for his visit.

I think I see Jim Allister there too.

What a bunch to be giving a guided tour.

Strazdas

Fascinating to see the power play in The Sun's editorial today. They are pro-Cummings and anti-Farage (and busy attacking Leo too) :

NIGEL Farage’s claim that chief No10 aide Dominic Cummings is not a proper Brexiteer is laughable.

Yes, he sidelined Farage, rightly fearing Ukip’s image would fatally harm Leave’s vote. Farage cannot forgive him.

But aside from Boris Johnson’s winning charisma, Cummings is the best thing about our new Government. He has a zeal for change, and to improve lives, which anyone should applaud.

Mr Farage should stop sniping — and consider how best to help them secure it.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9629369/varadkar-brexit-failure-statesmanship/

storker

J Mysterio wrote: »

Seriously. People like this are influencing others.

https://twitter.com/benhabib6/status/1156905045239185410

'You couldn't have a border here, so there will be no border'.

In a similar vein to Cummings and his "undemocratic backstop", maybe rational, informed people should start replacing "Brexit" with "Planet Brexit", because Habib is surely on another world, if not a parallel universe...

yerwanthere123

Very dignified from Simon Coveney in response to the nonsense of the last 48 hours or so.
https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1156862782383542272?s=19

Frank Bullitt

J Mysterio wrote: »

Seriously. People like this are influencing others.

https://twitter.com/benhabib6/status/1156905045239185410

'You couldn't have a border here, so there will be no border'.

How are people in the U.K falling for this? He doesn't even try to explain WHY there couldn't be a boarder there, on a single road, when there are hundreds of crossings.

It boggles the mind.

BonnieSituation

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Referenda on the same day in NI and here.
All that’s needed is 50+1 in both results.

We do referendums better than anyone. We’d have the citizens assemblies north and south beforehand and safe to say all future nuts and bolts on expenditures and all of it including integration of society explored.

It won’t be a surprise ref like Cameron and brexit at all.

Our civil service are world class at mapping all this stuff out and presenting govt with the information and details.

Now if it was to pass up north and it was a no vote down here, or vice versa, that would be unexpected. Things then Would just remain as they are.

Referenda do not have to be and will not be on the same day. It makes no sense for them to be.

The north will vote.
The south will then vote if needed.
If the north vote to reunify you're not gonna get a negative vote in the south. No chance.

That would be Jack Lynch level of abandonment.

johnnyskeleton

J Mysterio wrote: »

Seriously. People like this are influencing others.

https://twitter.com/benhabib6/status/1156905045239185410

'You couldn't have a border here, so there will be no border'.

The border is a red herring, used cynically as a negotiating ploy etc etc etc. One could reasonably ask to what end? Are they saying that the EU really want a No deal and are using the border to scupper the deal? Or is it the whole trapping them in the EU nonsense again?

I ask into an empty vaccuum because there is no real answer and for their rabble rousing purposes there doesnt need to be.

Itssoeasy

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Referenda do not have to be and will not be on the same day. It makes no sense for them to be.

The north will vote.
The south will then vote if needed.
If the north vote to reunify you're not gonna get a negative vote in the south. No chance.

That would be Jack Lynch level of abandonment.

Did Jack Lynch abandon the north ? What would have happened had he sent the Irish army over the border into the north at that time ? It wouldn't have been a good outcome.

Mr.Nice Guy

The argument that "we're not going to put up a hard border, so if the EU do that's up to them" is one of the more pathetic examples of abandoning responsibility that I've seen in this whole process from Brexit supporters. They literally campaigned under the slogan 'take back control of our land and borders'.

It's a bit like a fellow who leaves his wife and kids to shack up with his mistress. When he's later asked what's to be done about taking care of the family he's walking away from, his solution is that the ex-wife and kids should live together with him and the mistress.

"Don't worry, kids. It's not me that's looking to break up the family. If your mother chooses for us to live apart, well, that's her call, not mine. There's no reason why we can't all live together as one big happy family under the one roof."

In reality, the chancer that would put forward such an argument to try and manipulate his kids knows full well that his original decision to leave is what is necessitating the changes.

20silkcut

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Did Jack Lynch abandon the north ? What would have happened had he sent the Irish army over the border into the north at that time ? It wouldn't have been a good outcome.

There was a feasibility study done on this at the time and the conclusion was the Irish army would have held the town of newry for about 24 hours. Utterly futile.

Kaybaykwah

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The argument that "we're not going to put up a hard border, so if the EU do that's up to them" is one of the more pathetic examples of abandoning responsibility that I've seen in this whole process from Brexit supporters. They literally campaigned under the slogan 'take back control of our land and borders'.

It's a bit like a fellow who leaves his wife and kids to shack up with his mistress. When he's later asked what's to be done about taking care of the family he's walking away from, his solution is that the ex-wife and kids should live together with him and the mistress.

"Don't worry, kids. It's not me that's looking to break up the family. If your mother chooses for us to live apart, well, that's her call, not mine. There's no reason why we can't all live together as one big happy family under the one roof."

In reality, the chancer that would put forward such an argument to try and manipulate his kids knows full well that his original decision to leave is what is necessitating the changes.

Funny that you should use such an analogy about brexiteerism. Following Boris Johnson's victory, very much a microcosmic example of traitorous private/public life pantomime, it is no wonder the UK is headed for disaster, Sun/Mirror style.

FrancieBrady

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Did Jack Lynch abandon the north ? What would have happened had he sent the Irish army over the border into the north at that time ? It wouldn't have been a good outcome.

As well as having a plan to re-partition the north into Catholic and Protestant enclaves the Heath government papers show that they also had plans to sanction the Dublin government if they didn't play along.

These included identity cards and work permits for the Irish in Britain and freezing Ireland's sterling balances and exchange controls.

Lynch backed down, of that there is no doubt.

Will they try it again? No, because they don't have that power any more.

As good an example of how far Ireland has come in a few years because of our membership of the EU as you will get.

Laois_Man

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I am more pesimistic, if Johnson calls an election I think he will win and I think the momentum to a no-deal Brexit will be too hard to break at this point. There is massive, even if not majority, support for no-deal in the UK at this point, and it seems to be far more motivated than those who should be putting a stop to it.

We will have a no-deal crash and a Johnson lead government trying to lead Britain through a disasterous Brexit with the "Blitz Spirit". A much damaged UK will emerge in a few years time having been forced to pick up the peices and only then will a moderate leadership emerge to do a reasonable deal.

The HoC reconvene's on Sept 3rd

Even if a no confidence motion is tabled on day 1, is debated on and voted on and passes before the end of that week, and given the 2-week lag before Parliament is dissolved, plus the 25 day minimum campaign timeline, it means it would be the week of October 14th at the earliest before there would be a general election - realistically, the week of October 21st.

There wouldn't be a new government formed and the Queen's speech out of the way in time for October 31st.

Also, Tory+Brexit does not have a polling lead over labour + Lib Dems + either SNP or Greens

By election today and the Tories are expected to lose, which will give Conservatives (& Unionists) a majority of -1.
How does he plan to win anything with a negative majority.

Enzokk

Laois_Man wrote: »

The HoC reconvene's on Sept 3rd

Even if a no confidence motion is tabled on day 1, is debated on and voted on and passes before the end of that week, and given the 2-week lag before Parliament is dissolved, plus the 25 day minimum campaign timeline, it means it would be the week of October 14th at the earliest before there would be a general election - realistically, the week of October 21st.

There wouldn't be a new government formed and the Queen's speech out of the way in time for October 31st.

Also, Tory+Brexit does not have a polling lead over labour + Lib Dems + either SNP or Greens

I was about to link this tweet that sets out just about the timetable you have as well.

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1154780737301819395?s=20

He has the earliest time for an election for the week of the 28th October.

You suspect that if Labour would campaign on a second referendum and remaining and they were to be in power the EU would offer an extension for this to happen. If the Tories win on no-deal then no offer for an extension would be forthcoming.

BobbyBobberson

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1156989930477953025

Leaked document from Whitehall. Nothign new in there really is there? Everyone knew these were the possibilities.

Water John

Really hard to read a GE result with FPTP. A minority vote for one party can far outweigh the combined vote for a number of other parties.
With Johnson running ATM, Brexit Party will get nothing, so it's the Tories versus the Others.

Lb could demand an Ext in return for supporting the calling of a GE. Johnson could blame LB for not leaving on Oct 31st. His campaign strategy laid out for him.