Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Laois_Man

Enzokk wrote: »

I was about to link this tweet that sets out just about the timetable you have as well.

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1154780737301819395?s=20

He has the earliest time for an election for the week of the 28th October.

You suspect that if Labour would campaign on a second referendum and remaining and they were to be in power the EU would offer an extension for this to happen. If the Tories win on no-deal then no offer for an extension would be forthcoming.

If the election happened as outlined, or even a week earlier, Boris Johnson would still be acting PM on Oct 31 regardless of the election results. Is he going to request an extension? I doubt it! Especially if the election result means he's about to lose power.

Leroy42

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The border is a red herring, used cynically as a negotiating ploy etc etc etc. One could reasonably ask to what end? Are they saying that the EU really want a No deal and are using the border to scupper the deal? Or is it the whole trapping them in the EU nonsense again?

I ask into an empty vaccuum because there is no real answer and for their rabble rousing purposes there doesnt need to be.

Aerlene Foster was out yesterday claiming that the whole plan was to break up the union. Those dastardly EU's boffins, unelected of course, somehow created the UKIP and the ERG to force poor old Cameron into a referendum, which despite telling him was a terrible idea secretly wanted the UK to Brexit and then arranged for nobody in the UK to actually have a plan and even what they wanted.

They then enginereed TM to submit notice of A50, which I assume they somehow tricked her into doing also then convinced Davis to agree to their timetable and furthermore then made sure that TM called a GE and ran one of, if not the most, inept campaigns in democratic history to ensure that the DUP would have the balance of power.

Of course before all of that they rigged the labour party system to allow 1 member 1 vote so that JC could get in and ensure that Labour were almost unelectable.

I'll tell you what, if the EU really are behind all that and the plan has been to break up the UK all this time, then the UK have been strung like like a kipper and it only leads to the idea that sticking with such a devious and clearly genius organisation is the way to go.

Sam Russell

Laois_Man wrote: »

If the election happened as outlined, or even a week earlier, Boris Johnson would still be acting PM on Oct 31 regardless of the election results. Is he going to request an extension? I doubt it! Especially if the election result means he's about to lose power.

If the result is clear by Friday night, he is gone on Saturday - not like here.

Laois_Man

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the result is clear by Friday night, he is gone on Saturday - not like here.

The result is only clear that he is gone if Labour has a majority

Not in your nelly will they get one!

Capt'n Midnight

20silkcut wrote: »

There was a feasibility study done on this at the time and the conclusion was the Irish army would have held the town of newry for about 24 hours. Utterly futile.

If we had invaded a NATO country then thanks to treaties we'd be up against a couple of nuclear powers and the armed forces of the US, Canada and most of Western Europe apart from France. And Turkey who have one of the world's largest armies. And all of them at peak cold war strength. And us a non-industrial country economically dependant on the UK where 74% of our exports went in 1960.

There's no way we could afford to feed that many prisoners




https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/operation-armageddon-would-have-been-doomsday-for-irish-aggressors-1.728983

MrMusician18

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the result is clear by Friday night, he is gone on Saturday - not like here.

Unless a coalition (likely) needs to be formed

Sam Russell

Laois_Man wrote: »

The result is only clear that he is gone if Labour has a majority

Not in your nelly will they get one!

No - if the Labour Party are the largest party, then he is gone if it is clear he cannot form a Gov. For example, if LibDems plus Labour can get a majority, they can form a Gov, he is gone.

Laois_Man

Sam Russell wrote: »

No - if the Labour Party are the largest party, then he is gone if it is clear he cannot form a Gov. For example, if LibDems plus Labour can get a majority, they can form a Gov, he is gone.

They don’t form a government until they agree to. The Queen cannot invite Corbyn to become PM until she knows he will command a majority in the HoC

Stop moaning ffs

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Referenda do not have to be and will not be on the same day. It makes no sense for them to be.

The north will vote.
The south will then vote if needed.
If the north vote to reunify you're not gonna get a negative vote in the south. No chance.

That would be Jack Lynch level of abandonment.

As far as I know a border poll like the GFA referendum would be held simultaneously. It wouldn’t work at all in fact it would affect the outcome if either were held after the other.

Fairly sure it’s in the GFA they’ll be held same day simultaneously

FrancieBrady

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

As far as I know a border poll like the GFA referendum would be held simultaneously. It wouldn’t work at all in fact it would affect the outcome if either were held after the other.

Fairly sure it’s in the GFA they’ll be held same day simultaneously

It stands to reason if you think about it that they have to be simultaneous. If the north votes No, the southern one becomes academic and pointless.
It will be 'same day' as the GFA referendums were.

Capt'n Midnight

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1156989930477953025

Leaked document from Whitehall. Nothign new in there really is there? Everyone knew these were the possibilities.

Bank of England cuts UK growth forecast

The Bank's boffins have had to continue to assume that there will be a smooth Brexit, as that, officially, is the government's policy.

The Bank did not choose to outline the detailed implications of a no-deal Brexit.

So even with officially prescribed rose tinted glasses things the UK economy is sliding. 1.3% growth this year and next year , IF there's a deal.

UK annual population growth is 0.6%, so that leaves per capita growth of 0.7%. Inflation is 2%.

Mr Micawber's famous, and oft-quoted, recipe for happiness:
"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen [pounds] nineteen [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."
- Charles Dickens.



Britain has a 33% probability of falling into recession by the end of the first quarter of 2020 even if a Brexit deal is reached, the bank said, because of the impact from heightened uncertainty.

Stop moaning ffs

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1156989930477953025

Leaked document from Whitehall. Nothign new in there really is there? Everyone knew these were the possibilities.

What’s ‘kingfisher’?

Bottom right /last panel

Strazdas

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

What’s ‘kingfisher’?

Bottom right /last panel

A secret bailout fund apparently (it's in one of the replies underneath)

Joe_ Public

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

What’s ‘kingfisher’?

Bottom right /last panel

Think thats Hammonds emergency fund, the 27 billion Johnson was using to justify all his spending pledges during the leadership campaign. Or whatever the amount is.

Spanish Eyes

There may be trouble ahead,

But while there's a Government here who will speak for us all is good.

Feck the anti Irish propaganda from the usual suspects across the pond now please. It is the last sting of a dying wasp IMO. But what do I know.

Brexit was nothing to do with us, we will preserve our place in the EU. With EU assistance. hopefully

BonnieSituation

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Did Jack Lynch abandon the north ? What would have happened had he sent the Irish army over the border into the north at that time ? It wouldn't have been a good outcome.

Ah now. You are resorting to the notion that abandonment amounted to not "invading".

Cmon now.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: No memes here please. Post deleted.

Capt'n Midnight

Limpy wrote: »

Brittish online retail sales will surge and holidays to the UK will also. If the pound stays weak that is.

On the other hand UK exports to places like Africa haven't gone up in real terms when you consider the drop in Sterling.

The biggest change is that UK workers have had their pay packet devalued.

Tourism to the UK is down 8%, here its down 4% but that's after a record year. The drop in Sterling just isn't translating into extra visits.
https://www.visitbritain.org/latest-monthly-data-1

Water John

One would suspect people might feel they wouldn't be welcome. It's all about perception.

BobbyBobberson

Water John wrote: »

One would suspect people might feel they wouldn't be welcome. It's all about perception.

Would seem to be mirrored elsewhere.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/travel/tourism-u-s-down-trump-took-office-costing-4-6-n840326

Capt'n Midnight

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Interesting idea.
This £2 billion no deal brexit fund they’ve just pulled out from the back of the sofa is more about election promises than it is preparedness for brexit.

It's only £1.1Bn the rest is only "if needed"

trellheim wrote: »

Any time someone posts about 500 million for some Brexit thing, someone comes along on twitter and points out its just money already allocated being called Brexit money. There's been no budget to vote through more cash yet

I'm still trying to find the EXACT words Boris used about the 20,000 "new" police officers because that's the same number of new police officers needed to maintain existing headcount.


I am loosing faith in UK investigative reporting.

54and56

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Ok guys, excellent thread, and I only occasionally dip in and out.

From what I am hearing, it would seem that the most likely upcoming scenario (most likely but not a cert) we are facing could be a border in the Irish sea.

I would assume this would be the best possible scenario we could hope for? And in layman's terms, how "bad" would this be for us in the long run, if at all?

Thanks in advance.

I don't disagree and think this may well be why Britain Trump is keeping the Deeee Youuuu Peeeee so close initially and why the new UK govt are steadfastly referring to the backstop as the "undemocratic" backstop so at the opportune moment they can offer NI a vote on whether to keep (and democratise) the backstop and thus put a border down the Irish sea or reject the backstop and leave on no deal with the rest of the UK.

Stop moaning ffs

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It's only £1.1Bn the rest is only "if needed"



I'm still trying to find the EXACT words Boris used about the 20,000 "new" police officers because that's the same number of new police officers needed to maintain existing headcount.


I am loosing faith in UK investigative reporting.

Listening to LBC I’ve gathered that the 20,000 police would only bring it back up to pre austerity levels.
Boris is sellin it as a gift to the nation. When in fact it isn’t.

He mentioned this in his speech entering number ten

Capt'n Midnight

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Listening to LBC I’ve gathered that the 20,000 police would only bring it back up to pre austerity levels.
Boris is sellin it as a gift to the nation. When in fact it isn’t.

He mentioned this in his speech entering number ten

Except that at the historical turnover rate you'd expect 20,000 to leave the service over the next three years.

To INCREASE the numbers you'd need to hire 40,000.

road_high

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

On the other hand UK exports to places like Africa haven't gone up in real terms when you consider the drop in Sterling.

The biggest change is that UK workers have had their pay packet devalued.

Tourism to the UK is down 8%, here its down 4% but that's after a record year. The drop in Sterling just isn't translating into extra visits.
https://www.visitbritain.org/latest-monthly-data-1

I think it’s about perception- the UK doesn’t not seem a happy stable place now and the last thing holiday makers want is drama and inconvenience. Doesn’t matter if the currency is good value, people don’t overly think about something like that booking a holiday

boggerman1

More bull**** from newsnight trying to make out that Leo is going to crack and quoting timmy Dooley's mad text from a couple of days ago.British media is a joke.
Some erg guy on now saying the public is turning against the government about the backstop.unicorns and sunny uplands.oh isn't it a pity we don't bow down to our English better like Bruce Arnold,eoin Harris and Dan O'Brien would like us to do

c.p.w.g.w

boggerman1 wrote: »

More bull**** from newsnight trying to make out that Leo is going to crack and quoting timmy Dooley's mad text from a couple of days ago.British media is a joke.

Apparently the public's views are changing...I'm not seeing that from anyone in my day to day life

Junkyard Tom

Ireland being set up as a scapegoat for the Brexit mess on Newsnight as they continue to seek fissures on the backstop.

'Perfidious Albion' on stark display.

feargale

boggerman1 wrote: »

More bull**** from newsnight trying to make out that Leo is going to crack and quoting timmy Dooley's mad text from a couple of days ago.British media is a joke.

Well, certainly Leo are Simon are showing some signs of losing their nerve at this stage, like chasing Boris for a phone conversation while he leaves them hanging. Its a dreadful mistake. Having come this far we have to hold tough and face the Brits down. We have the EU with us for what it's worth. The UK are alone, though blissfully under the illusion that they can resurrect the Empire and that Trump will rescue them. With friends like Trump they won't be needing enemies. I would rather be looking to Europe for new markets than to Oceania. And if they put their trust in Trump they will end up as a colony of USA, minus their NHS which Trump despises and has told them they must get rid of. We also have friends in the U.S. Congress who have begun to let Boris and friends know where they stand.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Ireland being set up as a scapegoat for the Brexit mess on Newsnight as they continue to seek fissures on the backstop.

'Perfidious Albion' on stark display.

40 years ago they were threatening work permits and identity cards for the Irish in Britain and sterling exchange controls and we buckled.

Will Leo buckle under all they have left - a few nasty articles in the press. In my worst nightmares I hear him making the address to the nation...' on mature reflection we have decided to give in to the British......' but hopefully I am wrong.

We have to come of age as a nation. We aren't looking to shaft the British here, we are protecting our own, and finally those in northern Ireland we consider our own too. That is going to play massively up north.