Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

road_high

boggerman1 wrote: »

More bull**** from newsnight trying to make out that Leo is going to crack and quoting timmy Dooley's mad text from a couple of days ago.British media is a joke.
Some erg guy on now saying the public is turning against the government about the backstop.unicorns and sunny uplands.oh isn't it a pity we don't bow down to our English better like Bruce Arnold,eoin Harris and Dan O'Brien would like us to do

The opposite is happening, no one really thought too much about the Backstop until the English started their predictable anti Irish rhetoric- now its galvanized the ordinary joe soap to absolutely not give an inch on it. Why on earth would the public be turning? A ridiculous notion and shows how much our nations have now diverged. And we ain’t going back

Shelga

boggerman1 wrote: »

More bull**** from newsnight trying to make out that Leo is going to crack and quoting timmy Dooley's mad text from a couple of days ago.British media is a joke.
Some erg guy on now saying the public is turning against the government about the backstop.unicorns and sunny uplands.oh isn't it a pity we don't bow down to our English better like Bruce Arnold,eoin Harris and Dan O'Brien would like us to do

Crispin Blunt, Emily's uncle, who is popping up everywhere these days and is absolutely insufferable. He obviously isn't aware that we get BBC2 over here and every word he says is increasing our support for Leo's stance.

God, I wanted to throw something at the TV. He also called the Irish government 'inflexible'- the lack of self-awareness is quite incredible, he must have been the one giving Arlene Foster lessons.

They will never, ever own their mess- even if cancer patients die due to not having medication delivered on time- something Blunt 'hopes won't happen'. Disgrace of a man, disgrace to his nation.

road_high

FrancieBrady wrote: »

40 years ago they were threatening work permits and identity cards for the Irish in Britain and sterling exchange controls and we buckled.

Will Leo buckle under all they have left - a few nasty articles in the press. In my worst nightmares I hear him making the address to the nation...' on mature reflection we have decided to give in to the British......' but hopefully I am wrong.

We have to come of age as a nation. We aren't looking to shaft the British here, we are protecting our own, and finally those in northern Ireland we consider our own too. That is going to play massively up north.

Leo has his faults but absolutely delighted with his stance on this and wont let these bullies stamp their way as they’ve always done. Not a hope he’ll be addressing the nation like this!

maebee

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

They spun their billion pound bribe..what, two years after getting it? This also a preamble to a further two billion bribe/payoff from Boris.
https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1156654452973166593?s=21

We are not going to apologise for being bought, even though we're going to be thrown under the bus by our sellers.

Tell me how

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

One thing I noticed reading English forums with vocal brexiters is that their experience of last dozen years is different to us in Ireland, their austerity nowhere as steep as here, nor was the economic crash as dire. Which might partly explain why they are so gung-ho, they simply do not realise how bad things can get.
Some of them think that Brexit would mean they can buy a house.

My view of their austerity program was that it was quite severe and saw cuts to policing and education services which have severely impact on the services provided and the experience of those delivering these services.

It is possible that such commentators have not had as much involvement with such service providers and so have not seen the impact.

Also, I understand that unemployment figures for the UK are heavily manipulated in order to present a more favourable picture and that those who end up being allocated to the wrong category are the less qualified and on poorer wages and contracts.

I haven't lived in the UK in over 10 years so I could be wrong though.

Tell me how

feargale wrote: »

Well, certainly Leo are Simon are showing some signs of losing their nerve at this stage, like chasing Boris for a phone conversation while he leaves them hanging. Its a dreadful mistake. Having come this far we have to hold tough and face the Brits down. We have the EU with us for what it's worth. The UK are alone, though blissfully under the illusion that they can resurrect the Empire and that Trump will rescue them. With friends like Trump they won't be needing enemies. I would rather be looking to Europe for new markets than to Oceania. And if they put their trust in Trump they will end up as a colony of USA, minus their NHS which Trump despises and has told them they must get rid of. We also have friends in the U.S. Congress who have begun to let Boris and friends know where they stand.

That didn't happen.

Seth Brundle

feargale wrote: »

Well, certainly Leo are Simon are showing some signs of losing their nerve at this stage, like chasing Boris for a phone conversation while he leaves them hanging.

No they're not showing signs of buckling. Coveney's tweet earlier showed how calm they are.
There was no chasing Boris for a call.
You've been reading the Express too much!

road_high

Tell me how wrote: »

That didn't happen.

Exactly. There was no “chasing” just the showing up of the Johnson Pol Pott style regime as the ignorant undiplomatic crass idiots that they are

declanflynn

road_high wrote: »

boggerman1 wrote: »

More bull**** from newsnight trying to make out that Leo is going to crack and quoting timmy Dooley's mad text from a couple of days ago.British media is a joke.
Some erg guy on now saying the public is turning against the government about the backstop.unicorns and sunny uplands.oh isn't it a pity we don't bow down to our English better like Bruce Arnold,eoin Harris and Dan O'Brien would like us to do

The opposite is happening, no one really thought too much about the Backstop until the English started their predictable anti Irish rhetoric- now its galvanized the ordinary joe soap to absolutely not give an inch on it. Why on earth would the public be turning? A ridiculous notion and shows how much our nations have now diverged. And we ain’t going back

I'm a beef farmer and many of my friends are too, we think we depended on one market for too much of our exports for too long a hard brexit who make us face that problem and sort it forever, so the brits can f off and sink in their own ****

Strazdas

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

One thing I noticed reading English forums with vocal brexiters is that their experience of last dozen years is different to us in Ireland, their austerity nowhere as steep as here, nor was the economic crash as dire. Which might partly explain why they are so gung-ho, they simply do not realise how bad things can get.
Some of them think that Brexit would mean they can buy a house.

Yes indeed....it doesn't occur to them that things could get so bad in Britain that the state pension and benefits could be slashed (even though UK law is supposed to prevent this). There is this blind assumption with millions of Leave voters that they will scarcely even be affected by No Deal - this assumption and naivety is the thing that could possibly lead to civil unrest and riots on British streets when it suddenly dawns on them just how bad things have become.

road_high

declanflynn wrote: »

I'm a beef farmer and many of my friends are too, we think we depended on one market for too much of our exports for too long a hard brexit who make us face that problem and sort it forever, so the brits can f off and sink in their own ****

Hear hear- if the worst comes to the worst we will be ok and will reorient more exports away from Europe’s North Korea. They’ve been too hooked on cheap Irish good quality food anyway, they never want to pay a premium for it.
In any case, give them a few days of No deal fun they’ll be back begging for a tase deal. First thing on the table will be that backstop. So no point folding now

Shelga

road_high wrote: »

Hear hear- if the worst comes to the worst we will be ok and will reorient more exports away from Europe’s North Korea. They’ve been too hooked on cheap Irish good quality food anyway, they never want to pay a premium for it.
In any case, give them a few days of No deal fun they’ll be back begging for a tase deal. First thing on the table will be that backstop. So no point folding now

Exactly- why would we fold now?- when the UK experiencing the effects of no deal will have them agree to the backstop within weeks, as part of any trade deal. This should be the rebuttal to the question “but aren’t you just making no deal more likely by digging your heels in on the backstop?”

Brexit Britain just hasn’t accepted reality yet. In order to have any kind of trade deal with the EU, they will have to guarantee no hard border, which means accepting the backstop.

FrancieBrady

road_high wrote: »

Leo has his faults but absolutely delighted with his stance on this and wont let these bullies stamp their way as they’ve always done. Not a hope he’ll be addressing the nation like this!

Doesn't stop me having FG nightmares.

reslfj

Walter Bishop wrote: »

... and others just want fewer brown people in their area.
....

I am not much for this line of argument, easily gets racist, but:

Polish and other migrants from Eastern Europe are white, white noting but white.
They all have a Christian religion or hold more secular beliefs.

The largest ethnic group of immigrant into the UK has for many years been from India. Their entry has been 100% allowed by UK laws, which are all 100% outside any EU rule or regulation.

Lars

trashcan

reslfj wrote: »

I am not much for this line of argument, easily gets racist, but:

Polish and other migrants from Eastern Europe are white, white noting but white.
They all have a Christian religion or hold more secular beliefs.

The largest ethnic group of immigrant into the UK has for many years been from India. Their entry has been 100% allowed by UK laws, which are all 100% outside any EU rule or regulation.

Lars

We all know this, I wonder if our friends across the water realise ? If they really expect their country to revert to something akin to midsomer murders territory then I suspect they're in for a nasty shock.

MrMusician18

road_high wrote: »

Hear hear- if the worst comes to the worst we will be ok and will reorient more exports away from Europe’s North Korea. They’ve been too hooked on cheap Irish good quality food anyway, they never want to pay a premium for it.
In any case, give them a few days of No deal fun they’ll be back begging for a tase deal. First thing on the table will be that backstop. So no point folding now

Eh, no we won't. Hard Brexit will be the the thing that puts many non viable suckler farms 6ft under, never mind the final nail in the coffin.

storker

trashcan wrote: »

If they really expect their country to revert to something akin to midsomer murders territory

Are you referring to quaint rural life, or body count?

road_high

trashcan wrote: »

We all know this, I wonder if our friends across the water realise ? If they really expect their country to revert to something akin to midsomer murders territory then I suspect they're in for a nasty shock.

One of the more satisfying results of Brexit will hopefully an increase in ex colony Commonwealth nation migration to the UK. That would really be a bit of juicy schadenfreude for me. But we will have to seriously look at the CTA as it’s already far too porous for non EU migrants getting their way in here via the UK.

declanflynn

MrMusician18 wrote: »

road_high wrote: »

Hear hear- if the worst comes to the worst we will be ok and will reorient more exports away from Europe’s North Korea. They’ve been too hooked on cheap Irish good quality food anyway, they never want to pay a premium for it.
In any case, give them a few days of No deal fun they’ll be back begging for a tase deal. First thing on the table will be that backstop. So no point folding now

Eh, no we won't. Hard Brexit will be the the thing that puts many non viable suckler farms 6ft under, never mind the final nail in the coffin.

Most non viable sucker farmers have an off farm job to support the farm so they would be better off financially and have more free time if sucker farming was 6 feet under

road_high

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Eh, no we won't. Hard Brexit will be the the thing that puts many non viable suckler farms 6ft under, never mind the final nail in the coffin.

If it’s extremely loss making already then how is brexit going to be much worse? Beef farming has major difficulties with few easy answers to the issues

hill16bhoy

boggerman1 wrote: »

More bull**** from newsnight trying to make out that Leo is going to crack and quoting timmy Dooley's mad text from a couple of days ago.British media is a joke.
Some erg guy on now saying the public is turning against the government about the backstop.unicorns and sunny uplands.oh isn't it a pity we don't bow down to our English better like Bruce Arnold,eoin Harris and Dan O'Brien would like us to do

If ever somebody deserved to have their name made into a portmanteau word to describe them, it's Crispin Blunt

Laois_Man

road_high wrote: »

I think it’s about perception- the UK doesn’t not seem a happy stable place now and the last thing holiday makers want is drama and inconvenience. Doesn’t matter if the currency is good value, people don’t overly think about something like that booking a holiday

Added to the fact that anyone who booked their holiday in January or February when they had no idea whether the UK would be in or out when Summer came or what kind of mess the place would be in by now as the leave date was March 29 when they booked.

Then the way the extension to October 31st was structured, people still had no idea if they were going to be gone on May 31, June 30, July 31, August 31, September 30 or October 31 - leave could even happen while they were on their holidays in the UK. Very few were going to sign up for that. Especially EU tourists.

reslfj

declanflynn wrote: »

I'm a beef farmer and many of my friends are too, we think we depended on one market for too much of our exports for too long a hard brexit who make us face that problem and sort it forever, so the brits can f off and sink in their own ****

The total Irish export in 2017 $159 bn

The Irish 2017 export of Bovine Meat was $1.7 bn of which 46% or $784 mill was exported to the UK.
https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/irl/show/0201/2017/

This is a lot of money for Irish farmers, but is not much extra meat to sell into the 440million Single Market + possibly into some 3. country export markets.

The world market price for pork is now and for 2-4 years very high (ASF in China) and this will support fair prices and demand for beef too. Not forever, but gives time for getting into new markets.

Dairy products may be in bigger problems with more local consumption and high tariffs.

Lars

feargale

Seth Brundle wrote: »

You've been reading the Express too much!

The last time I read the Express was the 1950s. I knew a guy who bought it. Too much?

Laois_Man

Brecon and Radnorshire by-election result:

Lib Dems: 43.5%
Conservatives: 39%
Brexit Party: 10.5%
Labour: 5.3%
Looney: 1%
UKIP: 0.8%

Turnout 59.7%

Hopefully a sign of things to come - the Leave vote gets split between Conservatives and Brexit Party enabling a Remain party to sneak thru!

And what a disaster for Labour - barely even holding on to their deposit.
Another nail in Corbyn’s coffin. They have to lose him....Now!

Mr.Wemmick

Laois_Man wrote: »

Brecon and Radnorshire by-election result:

Lib Dems: 43.5%
Conservatives: 39%
Brexit Party: 10.5%
Labour: 5.3%
Looney: 1%
UKIP: 0.8%

Turnout 59.7%

Hopefully a sign of things to come - the Leave vote gets split between Conservatives and Brexit Party enabling a Remain party to sneak thru!

And what a disaster for Labour - barely even holding on to their deposit.
Another nail in Corbyn’s coffin. They have to lose him....Now!

Great news. They worked together too so as not to spilt the vote (watch and learn, Anna Soubry/Change UK)

Indeed, it is time for Corbyn to go.

Tell me how

Laois_Man wrote: »

Brecon and Radnorshire by-election result:

Lib Dems: 43.5%
Conservatives: 39%
Brexit Party: 10.5%
Labour: 5.3%
Looney: 1%
UKIP: 0.8%

Turnout 59.7%

Labour haven't won there since 1970 but still, 5% is poor showing.

Won't be enough to unseat JC though I reckon. Farage a thorn in Tory sides once again.

Peregrinus

Laois_Man wrote: »

Brecon and Radnorshire by-election result:

Lib Dems: 43.5%
Conservatives: 39%
Brexit Party: 10.5%
Labour: 5.3%
Looney: 1%
UKIP: 0.8% . . .

Disturbing that hard/no-deal Brexit parties between them muster 50.3% of the vote, though. This is only about 1.5% down on the Leave vote in that constituency in the 2016 referendum. If that's replicated nationally - admittedly, that's a very big "if" - then the Leave vote has (a) held up pretty well, despite all that has happened since, and (b) has if anything hardened in its outlook.

I'm frankly astonished that the Tory vote is as high as it is. I don't agree with a Brexit Party vote, but I can understand it. But the Tories have worked really, really hard over the past three years to repel voters and to present themselves as radically unfit for office. They've been utterly single-minded about this, and I don't see that they could possibly have done more. And yet nearly four in ten voters simply will not get the message. What would have to happen, I wonder, for them to vote for some other party?

Tell me how

^^^^^^
For the Sun, Daily Express and Telegraph to be proven wrong. i.e. project fear to become actual reality.

You're correct in it being shocking how so many stuck with Tories, but, Labour have shown themselves to be equally inept. While sitting on the sidelines.

Laois_Man

Peregrinus wrote: »

Disturbing that hard/no-deal Brexit parties between them muster 50.3% of the vote, though. This is only about 1.5% down on the Leave vote in that constituency in the 2016 referendum. If that's replicated nationally - admittedly, that's a very big "if" - then the Leave vote has (a) held up pretty well, despite all that has happened since, and (b) has if anything hardened in its outlook.

I'm frankly astonished that the Tory vote is as high as it is. I don't agree with a Brexit Party vote, but I can understand it. But the Tories have worked really, really hard over the past three years to repel voters and to present themselves as radically unfit for office. They've been utterly single-minded about this, and I don't see that they could possibly have done more. And yet nearly four in ten voters simply will not get the message. What would have to happen, I wonder, for them to vote for some other party?

Worth pointing out that Tory + Brexit Party + UKIP won 51.4% of the vote at the Peterborough by-election 8 weeks ago - albeit knocking a chunk off the 2016 Leave vote there (around 10% IIRC)