Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus

Tell me how wrote: »

^^^^^^
For the Sun, Daily Express and Telegraph to be proven wrong. i.e. project fear to become actual reality.

You're correct in it being shocking how so many stuck with Tories, but, Labour have shown themselves to be equally inept. While sitting on the sidelines.

Indeed they have. But that's reflected in their vote here, which is barely enough to retain their deposit. Whereas the Tory vote is inexplicably high.

Tell me how

Peregrinus wrote: »

Indeed they have. But that's reflected in their vote here, which is barely enough to retain their deposit. Whereas the Tory vote is inexplicably high.

Turnout was down a lot from 2 years ago. Maybe a lot of would be Labour voters stayed at home, leaving Tories with a high score albeit no seat.

10000maniacs

I remember the BBC interviewing a Welsh sheep farmer who was all bluster and panic about his livelihood when the 40% tariff hits. Which way did he vote? Leave of course. He would probably do the same now going by the result last night.

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

Indeed they have. But that's reflected in their vote here, which is barely enough to retain their deposit. Whereas the Tory vote is inexplicably high.

The Labour vote is very weak right now but I gather they have not really put in an effort in the area. The LibDems worked hard to get the seat and overturn the majority. I expect the Tory vote was high for precisely the reason Johnson has been shouting about no-deal, to win back some Leave voters. Add in his bounce and this is the result.

The interesting thing about this by-election is that there was a remain alliance and Plaid, Greens and Reform stood aside for the LibDems to win the seat. You have to wonder if this result will increase the appetite for Johnson for an election or make him pause?

This thread has all the interesting information I just posted, but from the original source.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1157033359832489984?s=20

j8wk2feszrnpao

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Some of them think that Brexit would mean they can buy a house.

They was a guy on the radio some time back, and he was hoping that Brexit would result in a 30% reduction in house prices (and he accepted that for his own house as well). Not once did it occur to him that a 30% reduction would likely mean it would be the worse British economic slump in modern British history (job losses, economic turmoil, austerity....).
So many people in the UK have become infatuated with the idea of EU=Bad and Brexit=Good, that rational or intelligent thinking doesn't matter. For them, as long as it results in Brexit, any outcome of Brexit must be a good thing.

L1011

So the working majority is now 1. Jared O'Maras seat will likely be won by the Lib Dems again also, albeit just giving someone who turns up and not adjusting that topline figure.

It's getting like the last days of Major in terms of ability to do anything now

Enzokk

I agree that it looks like Corbyn should be done now. There is no way he is fit to lead the party and there is no excuses for the results, it is down to his Brexit stance.

https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1157182828779626496?s=20

You can see from this tweet how the results have nosedived as his position on Brexit became clear in 2017 and Labour started leaking votes.

Edited to add: I don't know how you get rid of him except on the back of a general election though. His support at the last leadership challenge will make it seem that he is invincible and only a loss of support at a general election will weaken him to the point of losing the leadership.

First Up

54&56 wrote:

I don't disagree and think this may well be why Britain Trump is keeping the Deeee Youuuu Peeeee so close initially and why the new UK govt are steadfastly referring to the backstop as the "undemocratic" backstop so at the opportune moment they can offer NI a vote on whether to keep (and democratise) the backstop and thus put a border down the Irish sea or reject the backstop and leave on no deal with the rest of the UK.

That may well happen. There are several political and economic scenarios in which the NI electorate could be asked to decide such an option.

However we are a long way from offering northern voters a binary choice between a simple stay in UK or uniting with ROI. The northern conundrum needs to be solved but it will be addressed in the UK context for the forseeable future.

Stop moaning ffs

Habibs little stunt at the border has backfired on him

Brexit Party MEP crosses Irish border to prove a point but spectacularly owns himself

https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-party-ben-habib-irish-border-northern-ireland-republic-9034036?amp

Zubeneschamali

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

their austerity nowhere as steep as here, nor was the economic crash as dire. Which might partly explain why they are so gung-ho

Our austerity had a goal, achieved that goal and then stopped (mostly).

Theirs was just Tory class warfare on Labour voters, same as every time the Tories get in. Their public finances were worse after years of austerity than they were at the start.

Mr.Wemmick

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Our austerity had a goal, achieved that goal and then stopped (mostly).

Theirs was just Tory class warfare on Labour voters, same as every time the Tories get in. Their public finances were worse after years of austerity than they were at the start.

The UK rode on the austerity coat tails of others. Ireland's purpose was the UK's lie. The Tories are very good at exploiting decades of EU dissatisfaction based on misinformation for their benefit.. even now there is no scrutiny from anyone as to why the tories have a huge cash fund to help with brexit.

The UK is all about party protection and cohesion.. nothing at all to do with running the country.

Silent Running

I found it hilarious when talking to a Brexit voter in the UK. He had the standard UK brainwash that everything EU is bad. I suggested that he read outside the UK press for a more balanced view. His response was "but that's all EU propaganda". Even US sources were deemed suspect.:rolleyes:

The UK people are in real trouble. They're being steered by the political class and their press, and not for the good of the country or it's people.

Stop moaning ffs

Full interview with Jonathan Powell on newsnight. It’s so sad they don’t have even one among them who can compare with him.


‪ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPIGq_eiRBU‬

ancapailldorcha

Off topic posts deleted. Let's not have the SF Abstentionist stuff here as it's been done to death on these threads already.

Shelga

What do the likes of Mark Francois and the members of the ERG actually want? They say they want to skip any withdrawal agreement and go straight to a comprehensive free trade agreement.

But they don’t want to be in the single market or customs union.

So what does a comprehensive free trade agreement actually look like? Canada++ would have meant a hard border in Ireland, is my understanding?

I mean, the ERG basically want all of the perks of the EU until the day they switch to this ‘comprehensive free trade agreement’, which means no/minimal tariffs and customs, but yet not being in the single market or customs union?

What do they actually want??

Is there any way the EU can facilitate their request to skip the withdrawal agreement part? Feel like I already know the answer…

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think I see Jim Allister there too.

What a bunch to be giving a guided tour.

https://amp.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-party-mep-predicts-northern-ireland-gains-after-eu-exit-during-border-visit-38367305.html
Yes Allister and Hoey were both there.

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

So what does a comprehensive free trade agreement actually look like? Canada++ would have meant a hard border in Ireland, is my understanding?

Yes, but they don't care about that, so they think No Deal first and then the EU will do a Canada deal super fast without a backstop because we need the UKs trade that much.

Meanwhile Macron and his supporters think No Deal will be good because it will bring the UK to its knees in weeks, and they'll be back to the table in a more realistic frame of mind.

The problem I see is that the UK is so desperately unprepared for No Deal that the EU will be morally obliged to help them out afterwards. We can't really deny them life saving medicines or turn away their lorries while they have no food on shelves, let them literally die right there off our shores - we will have to help them.

And then they will crow that they were right all along, the EU blinked, rule britannia etc. etc.

Walter Bishop

Shelga wrote: »

What do the likes of Mark Francois and the members of the ERG actually want?

They haven't a bulls notion what they want which is why they are so abysmal. The only thing they know they want is they want to get re-elected at the next general election.


Beyond that they'll say whatever they think will keep their base onside no matter what unicorns they'd have to summon - the era of long term thinking in politics seems to be well and truly over.

Peregrinus

Shelga wrote: »

What do the likes of Mark Francois and the members of the ERG actually want? They say they want to skip any withdrawal agreement and go straight to a comprehensive free trade agreement.

But they don’t want to be in the single market or customs union.

So what does a comprehensive free trade agreement actually look like? Canada++ would have meant a hard border in Ireland, is my understanding?

I mean, the ERG basically want all of the perks of the EU until the day they switch to this ‘comprehensive free trade agreement’, which means no/minimal tariffs and customs, but yet not being in the single market or customs union?

What do they actually want??

Is there any way the EU can facilitate their request to skip the withdrawal agreement part? Feel like I already know the answer…

The EU could, legally, immediately after a no-deal Brexit offer the UK a free trade agreement not dissimilar to the deal they have just done with Canada.

And they could do that without any request that the UK should do anything at all about citizens rights, about the financial settlement, about the Irish border, or about anything else tht was to be addressed in the negotiated-but-abandoned Withdrawal Agreement.

They could do these things, just like they could send Johnson flowers and chocolates, and have the EU ambassador stand under his bedroom window and serenade him with "Harold the Horny Hunter". That would be perfectly legal too. And about as likely.

newport2

Shelga wrote: »

What do the likes of Mark Francois and the members of the ERG actually want? They say they want to skip any withdrawal agreement and go straight to a comprehensive free trade agreement.

But they don’t want to be in the single market or customs union.

So what does a comprehensive free trade agreement actually look like? Canada++ would have meant a hard border in Ireland, is my understanding?

I mean, the ERG basically want all of the perks of the EU until the day they switch to this ‘comprehensive free trade agreement’, which means no/minimal tariffs and customs, but yet not being in the single market or customs union?

What do they actually want??

Is there any way the EU can facilitate their request to skip the withdrawal agreement part? Feel like I already know the answer…

No.

The whole problem with Brexit is that it was all about preserving the Tory party, which should have split in the 90's because it was divided on the fundamental issue of Europe. Cost John Major back then. Once the Tories were back in power again after Blair, it resurfaced. The Brexit referendum was called by Cameron to see off the UKIP party under Farage and stop Tory members from going to them. Once May was in power all her red lines were drawn trying to keep both sides of the Tory party happy - impossible. Now Johnson has built a totally pro-leave party, in large get Tory votes back from the Brexit party. Everything stems back to the division in the Tories that has been there for decades. Hopefully they will eventually split.

Peregrinus

Peregrinus wrote: »

Disturbing that hard/no-deal Brexit parties between them muster 50.3% of the vote, though. This is only about 1.5% down on the Leave vote in that constituency in the 2016 referendum. If that's replicated nationally - admittedly, that's a very big "if" - then the Leave vote has (a) held up pretty well, despite all that has happened since, and (b) has if anything hardened in its outlook.

I'm frankly astonished that the Tory vote is as high as it is. I don't agree with a Brexit Party vote, but I can understand it. But the Tories have worked really, really hard over the past three years to repel voters and to present themselves as radically unfit for office. They've been utterly single-minded about this, and I don't see that they could possibly have done more. And yet nearly four in ten voters simply will not get the message. What would have to happen, I wonder, for them to vote for some other party?

I honestly think if the vote was run again it would be won by Remain but within a percent or 2.

L1011

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, but they don't care about that, so they think No Deal first and then the EU will do a Canada deal super fast without a backstop because we need the UKs trade that much.

Meanwhile Macron and his supporters think No Deal will be good because it will bring the UK to its knees in weeks, and they'll be back to the table in a more realistic frame of mind.

The problem I see is that the UK is so desperately unprepared for No Deal that the EU will be morally obliged to help them out afterwards. We can't really deny them life saving medicines or turn away their lorries while they have no food on shelves, let them literally die right there off our shores - we will have to help them.

And then they will crow that they were right all along, the EU blinked, rule britannia etc. etc.

Once any food, medicine etc is repackaged and specifically labelled as "HUMANITARIAN AID - ORIGIN [COUNTRY] / EUROPEAN UNION" it should be humiliating enough to stop the crowing.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

I honestly think if the vote was run again it would be won by Remain but within a percent or 2.

I think it could be more than this. Thing is you now have a younger generation who are more numerous than before by way of now being old enough to vote. Then you have the sheer farce the Tories have made of the whole thing and the fact that a lot of people will simply have died since 2016 who statistically would have been more likely to vote Brexit.

robinph

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it could be more than this. Thing is you now have a younger generation who are more numerous than before by way of now being old enough to vote. Then you have the sheer farce the Tories have made of the whole thing and the fact that a lot of people will simply have died since 2016 who statistically would have been more likely to vote Brexit.

Think it would still need a lot more work to persuade the younger generation to turn out to vote though. They don't want to leave the EU, but they would still rather not go to the bother of voting. It's a system that they don't understand and they are being fed lies about their votes not counting and politicians all lying to them so why waste their time. It suits most politicians to keep them thinking that as it's far easier to round up a bunch of pensioners to get them to the polls and vote for you than a bunch of 20 year olds.

There are a couple of constituencies, think one is in Northumberland, where they are super speedy at getting the votes counted after each election and they have a very efficient setup with the local 6th form kids running ballot boxes back and forth to the count in order to try and be the first to declare each election. I wonder if the voting amongst those youngsters is any higher ratio than other areas once they turn 18 just due them being more involved in the process.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it could be more than this. Thing is you now have a younger generation who are more numerous than before by way of now being old enough to vote. Then you have the sheer farce the Tories have made of the whole thing and the fact that a lot of people will simply have died since 2016 who statistically would have been more likely to vote Brexit.

You also have a sizeable proportion who unenthusiastically voted Remain. Would they bother again or switch? Or just abstain?
Glancing at recent polls they seem to be in/around what they were before the vote, especially the YouGov ones.

ancapailldorcha

robinph wrote: »

Think it would still need a lot more work to persuade the younger generation to turn out to vote though. They don't want to leave the EU, but they would still rather not go to the bother of voting. It's a system that they don't understand and they are being fed lies about their votes not counting and politicians all lying to them so why waste their time. It suits most politicians to keep them thinking that as it's far easier to round up a bunch of pensioners to get them to the polls and vote for you than a bunch of 20 year olds.

There are a couple of constituencies, think one is in Northumberland, where they are super speedy at getting the votes counted after each election and they have a very efficient setup with the local 6th form kids running ballot boxes back and forth to the count in order to try and be the first to declare each election. I wonder if the voting amongst those youngsters is any higher ratio than other areas once they turn 18 just due them being more involved in the process.

In a normal election, yes. However, I do think the turnout among the youth would be significantly higher. This wouldn't be an election, it would be their last chance to retain their rights to live and work in Europe as they currently are.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

You also have a sizeable proportion who unenthusiastically voted Remain. Would they bother again or switch? Or just abstain?
Glancing at recent polls they seem to be in/around what they were before the vote, especially the YouGov ones.

I can't see them switching. What for? Abstaining out of fatigue I can see but I think they'd probably do as they did before.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it could be more than this. Thing is you now have a younger generation who are more numerous than before by way of now being old enough to vote. Then you have the sheer farce the Tories have made of the whole thing and the fact that a lot of people will simply have died since 2016 who statistically would have been more likely to vote Brexit.

I disagree based on what I've seen with my English friends who voted Brexit, then regretted it, and are now keen for No Deal.

I'm aware you live there so you have a better handle on the local sentiment. But I do think the rerun would be painted so negatively, it would still be against Remain or anything sensible.

robinph

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In a normal election, yes. However, I do think the turnout among the youth would be significantly higher. This wouldn't be an election, it would be their last chance to retain their rights to live and work in Europe as they currently are.

Would need a concerted effort with the campaigning though to counteract the theme about having a vote as being undemocratic and similar nonsense.

If I was king of the world then I'd make all 6th form colleges and uni's close for the day, and anyone coming back in the next day showing that they went to actually vote gets an extra credit on their coursework or something, and anyone under 25 in work gets a paid half day off, funded by the government if needed, again with proof that they turned up to vote.

ancapailldorcha

robinph wrote: »

Would need a concerted effort with the campaigning though to counteract the theme about having a vote as being undemocratic and similar nonsense.

If I was king of the world then I'd make all 6th form colleges and uni's close for the day, and anyone coming back in the next day showing that they went to actually vote gets an extra credit on their coursework or something, and anyone under 25 in work gets a paid half day off, funded by the government if needed, again with proof that they turned up to vote.

Personally, I think voters should have to submit a 500-word essay with their vote to an AI which would evaluate it to make sure they have some understanding. Off topic fantasy but it annoys me that so many people can just tick a box based on which candidate is the most attractive or which logo they like. My cousin thinks Nigel Farage is funny and may have voted on that basis.

I think there would be a much better Remain campaign this time around and they'd have some serious firepower this time as well. Instead of mealy mouthed tripe about house prices and security, they can now go to town on Johnson as well as the Cambridge Analytica scandal, dodgy funding from people like Arron Banks, etc...