Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1157190562983944192

The Brexit Party don't seem to understand there presence in the next election will probably mean Brexit is even less likely as it will hurt the only party who genuinely want Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/mark-francois-tory-rebels-vow-to-block-brexit-deal-even-without-backstop

Then you get this,,,its wild,,,yet again a supposed committed Brexiter is again threatening to block Brexit.

Most of the Brexit Party candidates will be virtually unelectable. They have a high number of loons and cranks among their ranks (given that their leader is one). As you say, they will merely damage the Tories.

Rjd2

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Ha. Good luck campaigning in the likes of Foyle and South Down! Or most of Scotland!

The funny thing is I'd cut them some slack if I thought the likes of Francois and Farage's opposition was 100% driven by a dream of this "pure" Brexit,,but lets be honest its also motivated by the fact that these guys know there 15 minutes of fame would be over if Johnson somehow was to get a deal passed. :rolleyes:

lawred2

Shelga wrote: »

But I’m not basing my judgement on just the media. I went back to England recently, for a visit to some old colleagues from my team, one of whom was leaving. A lot of them are middle-aged men, they all voted for the Brexit Party.

They work for an automotive company, for god’s sake.

I came away feeling really unsettled. It’s honestly like they’ve been brainwashed.

These people cannot be helped. A shock to the system is the only thing that will do it, and even then, I think they will blame other factors rather than admit they were fooled.

My in-laws visit regularly and while they are open to debate pretty much the only stuff I get in return are sound bytes clearly sourced from the Mail and Telegraph.

All of it - complete bollocks of course but read this stuff enough times and you subconsciously begin to think that it 'can't all be bollocks surely'

Well - it is all bollocks. Every single bit of it.

Tell me how

Rjd2 wrote: »

The Brexit Party don't seem to understand there presence in the next election will probably mean Brexit is even less likely as it will hurt the only party who genuinely want Brexit.

If Brexiteers think Remainers are going to strategise at a GE, like Plaid Cymru did yesterday, I think we could see Tory-Brexit Party alliances if sorts to deliver Brexit.

It's a country in a mess at the moment.

Stop moaning ffs

Tell me how wrote: »

If Brexiteers think Remainers are going to strategise at a GE, like Plaid Cymru did yesterday, I think we could see Tory-Brexit Party alliances if sorts to deliver Brexit.

It's a country in a mess at the moment.

Johnson and Farage both said they wouldn’t go into coalition.
Farage said trump told him he should get to work with Boris.

I can actually see it happening. That said brexit party is largely made up of unelectables.

Strazdas

Shelga wrote: »

But I’m not basing my judgement on just the media. I went back to England recently, for a visit to some old colleagues from my team, one of whom was leaving. A lot of them are middle-aged men, they all voted for the Brexit Party.

They work for an automotive company, for god’s sake.

I came away feeling really unsettled. It’s honestly like they’ve been brainwashed.

These people cannot be helped. A shock to the system is the only thing that will do it, and even then, I think they will blame other factors rather than admit they were fooled.

Brexit is purely an internal British (English) crisis at this stage. It has nothing to do with the EU or Ireland. The country seems to be going through some sort of collective nervous breakdown.

If it was really about EU membership and nothing else, people would be acting normally and rationally and be open to persuasion. It's more that the country is deeply, deeply divided on a whole load of things and struggling with its identity.

Seth Brundle

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1157190562983944192

The Brexit Party don't seem to understand there presence in the next election will probably mean Brexit is even less likely as it will hurt the only party who genuinely want Brexit.

Any sign of some policies in areas other than "we will leave the EU"?

Rjd2

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Johnson and Farage both said they wouldn’t go into coalition.
Farage said trump told him he should get to work with Boris.

I can actually see it happening. That said brexit party is largely made up of unelectables.

Cummings who is pretty much dictating everything loathes Farage and the feeling is mutual. They may form a pact but I'd be shocked.

Boris is hoping he can somehow get Brexit through and that would mean a collapse in the support of the brexit party.

Best of luck with that Boris.:pac:

Rjd2

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Any sign of some policies in areas other than "we will leave the EU"?

I've been reliably informed that Brexit means Brexit and the will of the people must be respected:)

ancapailldorcha

Tell me how wrote: »

If Brexiteers think Remainers are going to strategise at a GE, like Plaid Cymru did yesterday, I think we could see Tory-Brexit Party alliances if sorts to deliver Brexit.

It's a country in a mess at the moment.

A Tory-Brexit party alliance can't really happen. If Johnson successfully leaves the EU by 31 October then the Brexit party will just die away. If he doesn't, then there is no chance that the Tories will stand down in any seat they think they have a reasonable chance of winning. The Brexit party might stand down for the likes of Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker but that'd be the height of it. The Tory party still has its liberal and one nation wings so they need to win big in a GE as well.

Strazdas

Rjd2 wrote: »

Cummings who is pretty much dictating everything loathes Farage and the feeling is mutual. They may form a pact but I'd be shocked.

Boris is hoping he can somehow get Brexit through and that would mean a collapse in the support of the brexit party.

Best of luck with that Boris.:pac:

There's an interesting split going on at the moment. The Sun were praising Cummings to high heaven yesterday and slagging off Farage.

Keep an eye on this Cummings - Farage feud....we could end up with two distinct Brexit camps at war with each other.

Tell me how

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A Tory-Brexit party alliance can't really happen. If Johnson successfully leaves the EU by 31 October then the Brexit party will just die away. If he doesn't, then there is no chance that the Tories will stand down in any seat they think they have a reasonable chance of winning. The Brexit party might stand down for the likes of Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker but that'd be the height of it. The Tory party still has its liberal and one nation wings so they need to win big in a GE as well.

It's not about the seats they've a chance of winning, it's about the seats they are likely just going to lose.
That's where I think we may see Brexit Party supporting the Tory's so as not to dilute the leave vote. With some form of an understanding, if not outright published joint manifesto.

Since May left, the Tories top table is much less 'Party first' than it was. It's government is now Brexit first, then party but a distant second I think. (I understand the Tory membership is still Tory first but the government isn't really going to be affected by their opinions for a while)

Calina

I would be interested for now to know how the Bannon-Cummins relationship is.

Strazdas

Calina wrote: »

I would be interested for now to know how the Bannon-Cummins relationship is.

Cummings and the right wing press is another one. It almost sounds like he is telling them what articles to write.

Sam Russell

Tell me how wrote: »

It's not about the seats they've a chance of winning, it's about the seats they are likely just going to lose.
That's where I think we may see Brexit Party supporting the Tory's so as not to dilute the leave vote. With some form of an understanding, if not outright published joint manifesto.

Since May left, the Tories top table is much less 'Party first' than it was. It's government is now Brexit first, then party but a distant second I think. (I understand the Tory membership is still Tory first but the government isn't really going to be affected by their opinions for a while)

It is what the voters think, not what the Tory Party members think.

I could never understand why working class voters ever would vote Tory. It is just wrong for a working class voter to vote for the likes of JRM, or Boris, or Cameron. Why do they do it?

Stop moaning ffs

The attempt to create a divide here by saying there is a divide in Ireland and lack of support for leo and the backstop, failed spectacularly as far as I can tell. It’s had the opposite effect of galvanising support.
I wonder are we impervious to that sort of manipulation via media here as the Brits are so obviously and easily manipulated, or is it more a case of bloody Brits at it again, and we’re not going to be pushed around anymore?

*numerous versions of ‘please for the love of god stop making me defend Leo’ tweets and posts all over the place

Tell me how

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is what the voters think, not what the Tory Party members think.

I could never understand why working class voters ever would vote Tory. It is just wrong for a working class voter to vote for the likes of JRM, or Boris, or Cameron. Why do they do it?

Think it depends on your definition of working class.

If it's those at lower end if scale in terms of employment, earnings, education then I doubt many do vote Tory.

If it's medium scale earners with college education then I'd imagine the Labour message felt a bit too socialist for them and so they vote Tory.

Same here, many give out about FF/FG but the perception of AAA/PBP etc is less appealing.

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is what the voters think, not what the Tory Party members think.

I could never understand why working class voters ever would vote Tory. It is just wrong for a working class voter to vote for the likes of JRM, or Boris, or Cameron. Why do they do it?

I suppose Tories vs Labour would be like FF vs FG say 50+ years ago. Your family would be traditionally one or the other

All of that seems to be totally fragmenting with Brexit though. We may very well be watching the permanent end of two party politics in the UK

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

I suppose Tories vs Labour would be like FF vs FG say 50+ years ago. Your family would be traditionally one or the other

All of that seems to be totally fragmenting with Brexit though. We may very well be watching the permanent end of two party politics in the UK

That will only occur if they go for STV type voting and ditch the undemocratic FPTP.

Their whole system is based on two party carve up.

If Labour had realised they would lose all their seats in Scotland after the IndyRef, would they have either not campaigned, or gone for Indy, hoping to benefit in the subsequent Scottish Gov?

The sight of English Labour MPs parading around Scotland campaigning for a vote for a continuance of English dominance over Scottish independence was galling.

abff

Why can't they just ditch the DUP and go back to having Brexit with no land border in Ireland, but border controls between NI and the rest of the UK? Surely there's a chance this would get enough support from members of other parties to leave them no longer relying on the DUP.

Although I guess this would then lead to a general election as there is no way they could win a vote of no confidence if they turn the DUP against them.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

There's an interesting split going on at the moment. The Sun were praising Cummings to high heaven yesterday and slagging off Farage.

Keep an eye on this Cummings - Farage feud....we could end up with two distinct Brexit camps at war with each other.

That's what happens with extremists. When you found an alliance based on hatred and ignorance, you can't be surprised when those forces are turned on each other.

Cummings hates Farage. So much so that he vetoed Vote Leave collaborating with Leave.EU in 2016 which was a shrewd move on his part.

FrancieBrady

abff wrote: »

Why can't they just ditch the DUP and go back to having Brexit with no land border in Ireland, but border controls between NI and the rest of the UK?

It will eventually or they revoke the whole thing.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

<...>

The amount of pro-Brexit voters I know is incredibly small. My aunt is obsessed with Turkey joining the EU so she voted Leave. I've explained Turkey's stalled bid to her numerous times after but she's still obsessed with it. She's also fairly wealthy and has the whole "Sure, we've survived worse" mentality. Not encouraging.

(...)

As you know I lived and worked in the North until last year and, comparatively, we accidentally knew loads: I say "accidentally", because we never used to talk politics with them much (little to no interest for younger ones, 'things improper to discuss' for elderer ones), so their positions about the 2016 ref. were all broadly unknown to me.

It wasn't until the weeks and months later, as Brexit was beginning to become fashionably all-consuming (summer and late 2016, long before Brexit fatigue started to set in) that friends and family came out about their Leave vote, in dicussions at parties or BBQ and such.

Turns out it was the vast majority of them, from normal people I'd known and had very friendly relations with over decades. Even my (elderly, but smart, well-travelled and broadminded) mother-in-law of 23 years, and our best friends of 26 years (to the point I gave her a way on her wedding day)! And I do mean 'normal': not particularly opinionated, not an ounce of xenophobia, no UKIP-like stances in chats or anything, a few degree-educated, even an MBA in there..

It was a shock to me, let me tell you. And I took it bad, a betrayal in the purest, literal sense of the word.

Shelga is right, btw. Which won't be any news to you, ancap, nor any consolation for the Irish held hostage to this crisis against their will, just as much as the 5millions: I've long, long been convinced (mid-2017) that the Brits need to go through the hardships of a no deal, to come to realise what their EU membership ever did for them. Both Leavers and the larger body of apathetic types.

Tell me how

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's what happens with extremists. When you found an alliance based on hatred and ignorance, you can't be surprised when those forces are turned on each other.

Cummings hates Farage. So much so that he vetoed Vote Leave collaborating with Leave.EU in 2016 which was a shrewd move on his part.

I'd be backing Farage to persevere. Cummings will be out 0.3 seconds after Johnson starts to slip.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's what happens with extremists. When you found an alliance based on hatred and ignorance, you can't be surprised when those forces are turned on each other.

Cummings hates Farage. So much so that he vetoed Vote Leave collaborating with Leave.EU in 2016 which was a shrewd move on his part.

It's definitely intriguing. We have Johnson-Cummings on the one side and Farage, Baker and the ERG on the other. It's anyone's guess how this will play out in the coming months and what way the right wing press will spin it.

volchitsa

Strazdas wrote: »

Brexit is purely an internal British (English) crisis at this stage. It has nothing to do with the EU or Ireland. The country seems to be going through some sort of collective nervous breakdown.

If it was really about EU membership and nothing else, people would be acting normally and rationally and be open to persuasion. It's more that the country is deeply, deeply divided on a whole load of things and struggling with its identity.

I think that may well be true. We had the various referenda here about marriage equality and abortion and now divorce, and while those are deeply divisive issues, and there was indeed significant division among people, at least there were arguments being had on both sides.

in the UK people seem to have bought into the Brexit idea without knowing why, it's like they just "feel it in their waters" or something. There's no argument to be had, it's just a fact. Like saying you don't like a group and don't want to go to their concert.

Strazdas

volchitsa wrote: »

I think that may well be true. We had the various referenda here about marriage equality and abortion and now divorce, and while those are deeply divisive issues, and there was indeed significant division among people, at least there were arguments being had on both sides.

in the UK people seem to have bought into the Brexit idea without knowing why, it's like they just "feel it in their waters" or something. There's no argument to be had, it's just a fact. Like saying you don't like a group and don't want to go to their concert.

Yes, if it was purely about whether membership of the EU is a good idea or whether the UK should remain or leave in the wake of the referendum result, you would expect the Brexit debate to be much more sane and rational and logical. There seems to be something much deeper going on.....perhaps a society that was already deeply divided even before the referendum was held.

LordBasil

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The attempt to create a divide here by saying there is a divide in Ireland and lack of support for leo and the backstop, failed spectacularly as far as I can tell. It’s had the opposite effect of galvanising support.
I wonder are we impervious to that sort of manipulation via media here as the Brits are so obviously and easily manipulated, or is it more a case of bloody Brits at it again, and we’re not going to be pushed around anymore?

*numerous versions of ‘please for the love of god stop making me defend Leo’ tweets and posts all over the place

Yeah, It's united the country in defending FG's position!!

I think after all the scandals that have been revealed over the past 30 years or so in Ireland, (e.g Clerical Sexual Abuse, Magdalene Laundries, Tuam Babies, Planning Corruption, Banking Crisis, Anglo and so on) people here are maybe more cynical about claims politicians or media outlets make and question things more? I don't think we are immune from populism but I think we are less likely to fall into it than the British.

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

As you know I lived and worked in the North until last year and, comparatively, we accidentally knew loads: I say "accidentally", because we never used to talk politics with them much (little to no interest for younger ones, 'things improper to discuss' for elderer ones), so their positions about the 2016 ref. were all broadly unknown to me.

It wasn't until the weeks and months later, as Brexit was beginning to become fashionably all-consuming (summer and late 2016, long before Brexit fatigue started to set in) that friends and family came out about their Leave vote, in dicussions at parties or BBQ and such.

Turns out it was the vast majority of them, from normal people I'd known and had very friendly relations with over decades. Even my (elderly, but smart, well-travelled and broadminded) mother-in-law of 23 years, and our best friends of 26 years (to the point I gave her a way on her wedding day)! And I do mean 'normal': not particularly opinionated, not an ounce of xenophobia, no UKIP-like stances in chats or anything, a few degree-educated, even an MBA in there..

It was a shock to me, let me tell you. And I took it bad, a betrayal in the purest, literal sense of the word.

Shelga is right, btw. Which won't be any news to you, ancap, nor any consolation for the Irish held hostage to this crisis against their will, just as much as the 5millions: I've long, long been convinced (mid-2017) that the Brits need to go through the hardships of a no deal, to come to realise what their EU membership ever did for them. Both Leavers and the larger body of apathetic types.

I believe you. I lived in Manchester until the end of 2013. This was well before the referendum of course and I hadn't many ties to the area. I did know an ardent Tory free marketeer who surprisingly voted remain given his libertarian leanings though.

My job can be surmised as ACD providing high end technical services to EU researchers based in London so I'm obviously highly biased against leaving with no deal. I've tried to prepare contingencies against it such as trying and failing to learn Python. That leaves me with either learning an EU language to fluency by Hallowe'en or heading home to collect benefits as my job doesn't exist in Ireland. I've had to postpone a career change that I've discussed with your good self as well as a potential family investment in property here.

The Turk-obsessed aunt and myself were reduced to screaming at each other in the lead up to the referendum while her posh friend wailed about "too many n****ers" as the height of my attempts to engage with wealthy Tory types. I know good people who voted Brexit though not too many. I'm younger than yourself so that might be biasing the sorts of people I associate with.

BobbyBobberson

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1157287550714884096

This is the type muck bandied around by Tories. It is Brexit it all costs. And when it does go tits up, there will be two parties to blame. The EU and The Irish.