Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

10000maniacs

Laois_Man wrote: »

Breaking News: Sky News understands carmaker Ford is expected to announce plans to close its engine plant in Bridgend in south Wales which employs 1,700 people

Cue Farage et al saying "Noting to do with Brexit"!

I bet the vast majority of the workforce in Bridgend voted for Brexit. I remember when they interviewed a guy at the Jaguar Landrover plant last year as the closure announcement was made, he said "If they needed any more reason why we voted Brexit, this is it."
Hard to feel sympathetic for these guys, apart from maybe their children. These guys can't seem to make the key connection.

Charles Babbage

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Not talking about totally ignoring him , but is the level of security and hyper-preparation truly necessary?

Yes. Having the President of the USA killed in your jurisdiction would not be a good thing at all.

listermint

listermint wrote: »

You know they have to build electric cars.they don't just appear out of nowhere.....

They will, but in cheaper locations like China.
Tesla plant 3 (in China) is about to come on line.

micosoft

brickster69 wrote: »

Ford makes a loss in Europe and has closed plants in Blanquefort in France, Genk in Belgium, Saarlouis in Germany and plants in Russia also.

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ford-plans-cut-more-5000-jobs-germany



It will look like chicken feed if Trump puts 25% tariffs on EU cars.

Most (competitive) Continental European cars sold in America are made in America. BMW, VW, MB, all have large us manufacturing bases.

Most (uncompetitive) US Manufacturers have no or reducing presence in Europe (GM sold Opel, Chrysler actually owned by Fiat, Ford reducing)

UK based Jaguar/Land Rover have no manufacturing base in the US.

So who exactly will be impacted?

"The largest BMW assembly plant in the world is located in Spartanburg, South Carolina. Last year, it posted a new production record of more than 400,000 vehicles — 70% of which were exported to other countries.
Volkswagen has a large factory in Chattanooga, Tennessee, that produced 112,000 vehicles last year. And Mercedes makes 300,000 cars and SUVs a year in Tuscaloosa County, Alabama.
It's a booming business: The total number of cars produced by German automakers in the United States has increased by 180,000 since 2013 to 804,000, according to the German carmakers association. Half are exported to markets including Europe and Asia."

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They will, but in cheaper locations like China.
Tesla plant 3 (in China) is about to come on line.

That's for the Chinese market it had to go there to sell there.

You do understand the concept of the EU single market right ?

Or is it all sound bytes and nothing more

Anteayer

I think the British are grossly underestimating the fact that companies who might have had facilities that were just about hanging on will use Brexit as cover to ditch them. I'm not saying that it's not down to Brexit, but just that you'll have plenty of managers taking the "Never Waste a Good Crisis" approach to cost cutting and if the UK's looking politically unstable with potential cost implications around tariffing and market access, they will simply rethink why they're in the UK.

Even the very fact that a company might run over the figures on an old, relatively more expensive UK facility, is likely to result in job losses.

Brexit will have accelerated a lot of decision making and crystallised a lot of problems to the point that facilities that were ticking over will close.

listermint

listermint wrote: »

That's for the Chinese market it had to go there to sell there.

You do understand the concept of the EU single market right ?

Or is it all sound bytes and nothing more

You do know that in the not too distant future, that Chinese made cars will be flooding the EU markets, they are now making cars that pass the EU standards for safety.


As for countries manufacturing Electric vehicles, at the moment the main issue is getting supplies of the raw materials for the batteries, guess who has the most supply. The Production of EVs will not ramp up as quickly as we would like them to due to supply issues.


Car makers are scaling back now to avoid the risk of being left with too much inventory, they will then come back when the demand returns and the supply of batteries allows.


As for the "single market", the UK has a population of some 60 million plenty large enough for the economies of scale to work. Cars are made exclusively for the UK (& Irish) markets due to the RHD configuration, so they have to be made differently from the LHD models.


Car makers are not going to stop making RHD models because of Brexit, some 30% of the planet drive on the left.

listermint

Grand,.you don't understand the single market then



Got it

listermint

listermint wrote: »

Grand,.

Ah Yes, the single market, the one that allows multinationals to exploit the employees in each country by moving jobs between them to increase the shareholder's yield. The Single market that prevents competition between companies by allowing the multinationals to buy them out as soon as they become a threat or to allow them to be run into the ground to eliminate the competition. The single market that enforces interdependencies such that if your one supplier fails then you're screwed.


Yes I do understand, but not in a way that you will comprehend.

BluePlanet

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah Yes, the single market, the one that allows multinationals to exploit the employees in each country by moving jobs between them to increase the shareholder's yield. The Single market that prevents competition between companies by allowing the multinationals to buy them out as soon as they become a threat or to allow them to be run into the ground to eliminate the competition. The single market that enforces interdependencies such that if your one supplier fails then you're screwed.


Yes I do understand, but not in a way that you will comprehend.

allows multinationals to exploit the employees in each country by moving jobs between them to increase the shareholder's yield. Isn't the solution to this a single market with tax harmonization and mandatory minimum wage?


prevents competition between companies by allowing the multinationals to buy them out as soon as they become a threat. While i understand the complaint here about monopolies, it would require Anti-Trust legislation to prevent monopolies from forming. Again a single market with harmonized rules would be required.

enforces interdependencies such that if your one supplier .
See above.
I don't see anything about a single market that would mandate single suppliers. Can you cite examples??

Nody

Deleted User wrote: »

They will, but in cheaper locations like China.
Tesla plant 3 (in China) is about to come on line.

First of all the Tesla plant in China (and I highly doubt they will see any volumes worth talking about until end of 2020) is to get around the Chinese tariffs; nothing else and that's assuming Tesla still exist as a company at the time (seeing how they are losing over half a billion a quarter and that's only going to increase as the Model 3 rolls out further). Secondly the Chinese labor costs are now at the level of US manufacturing levels; they are not producing there because it's cheaper but because they get state loans and payments. Oh and electrical cars is a loss maker but because of government rules they need to average down their average emissions and/or buy credits and hence they are sold in limited numbers. If you wanted real competition remove any and all incentives, tax breaks etc. for electrical cars and requirement on emission and see how many buy a car that costs twice today's price (to reflect more accurately the real price of the car).

And for someone bitching about the single market you sure do appear to miss things such as the single market being used to protect EU based car manufacturing by ensuring fairer competition. But hey; you could always go the Chinese or US route instead if that's preferable for the economy as those are much more fair, right?

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ah Yes, the single market, the one that allows multinationals to exploit the employees in each country by moving jobs between them to increase the shareholder's yield. The Single market that prevents competition between companies by allowing the multinationals to buy them out as soon as they become a threat or to allow them to be run into the ground to eliminate the competition. The single market that enforces interdependencies such that if your one supplier fails then you're screwed.


Yes I do understand, but not in a way that you will comprehend.

I'm lost for words.

Because your version is more of a twitter rant with little facts than the reality of what the single markets purpose is.

I'm out for this evening I can't take much more of this pancake flipping of facts.

Headshot

Watching Newsnight and they are having debate on the next possible Tory leader/PM and my god the choices are awful.

Imagine Boris as a leader, it's embarrassing for the Tories. The man would lie through his teeth to get what he wants and would stab anyone to get there as well.

I suspect people like his charisma but you scratch your head when you see what he's done in politics e.g his gaffs as foreign secretary and his lies a upon lies in Brexit campaign

10000maniacs

Meanwhile Dominic Raab's delusion knows no bounds. He is prepared to go to the Queen to ask her to break up Parliament to force a no deal through. This Tory rabble of contenders has got to be the most untalented in political history. The most intuitive and canny contender of the 13 has this week admitted to smoking opium in the past.

fly_agaric

Deleted User wrote: »

You do know that in the not too distant future, that Chinese made cars will be flooding the EU markets, they are now making cars that pass the EU standards for safety.

Just on this, I wonder, why do you think they'll go down a different route to the Japanese, Koreans (and I suppose even the Americans long before that) if/when their car companies start chasing after the European market for growth in a big way?

All the other foreign car makers before them ended up having local factories and even design & r & d etc inside Europe (especially for vehicles they will sell in Europe) once they had a big enough market here. They've already bought existing car companies in Europe (which fits with that approach I think?).

54and56

10000maniacs wrote: »

Meanwhile Dominic Raab's delusion knows no bounds. He is prepared to go to the Queen to ask her to break up Parliament to force a no deal through. This Tory rabble of contenders has got to be the most untalented in political history. The most intuitive and canny contender of the 13 has this week admitted to smoking opium in the past.

He was at a wedding in Iran, the group was passing round a shisha pipe and he had a puff. Fair play to him for holding his hands up. We're all human. He acknowledged the mistake and didn't repeat it. It was over a decade ago (I think) and shows he's had some real world experience.

I really like the guy, he's logical and pragmatic and weirdly charismatic in a nerdy way. I don't see him getting to the last 2 unfortunately (although I put money on him to do so at 8/1) but if Amber Rudd throws her weight behind him and can get her 60+ One Nation Tory's to follow her he'd have a great chance. More likely she'll plum for Gove though as he'd probably have a much better chance of winning the grass roots vote than Stewart but neither of them are likely to beat Boris so long as he makes it to the last 2.

Peregrinus

54&56 wrote: »

He was at a wedding in Iran, the group was passing round a shisha pipe and he had a puff. Fair play to him for holding his hands up. We're all human. He acknowledged the mistake and didn't repeat it. It was over a decade ago (I think) and shows he's had some real world experience . . .

Between this, and Jeremy Hunt's confession about that one cannabis lassi when he was backpacking in India, it's clear that the emerging theme for this leadership contest is holiday-based narcotics admissions. But it says a lot about the current state of the Tory party when you find yourself thinking "Gosh! I wish the opium fiend could win!"

robinph

10000maniacs wrote: »

Meanwhile Dominic Raab's delusion knows no bounds. He is prepared to go to the Queen to ask her to break up Parliament to force a no deal through. This Tory rabble of contenders has got to be the most untalented in political history. The most intuitive and canny contender of the 13 has this week admitted to smoking opium in the past.

Is that thinking along the lines of doing so just before parliament gets a chance to vote against no deal at the end of October?

That is the point at which I'd expect the Queen to somehow use her limited powers in some way and tell him to sod off back to parliament and do his job.

20silkcut

Piers Morgan said yesterday his interview with trump that prince Charles was in favour of Brexit.
Trump gave nothing away.
Personally I would reckon with the risk of the break up of the UK and his strong leanings towards the green agenda prince Charles would be anything but a brexiteer if his political leanings could be revealed. I would be surprised if any of the royal family were in favour of a no deal brexit.

robinph

20silkcut wrote: »

Piers Morgan said yesterday his interview with trump that prince Charles was in favour of Brexit.
Trump gave nothing away.
Personally I would reckon with the risk of the break up of the UK and his strong leanings towards the green agenda prince Charles would be anything but a brexiteer if his political leanings could be revealed. I would be surprised if any of the royal family were in favour of a no deal brexit.

As I don't believe that Trump is capable of not giving anything away, if he knew something he'd have blurted it out, then the only conclusion is that Piers Morgan was talking rubbish. Charles is going to be too well practiced in not saying anything political since the day he could speak that I seriously doubt he'd have said anything about Brexit to Trump.

Christy42

20silkcut wrote: »

Piers Morgan said yesterday his interview with trump that prince Charles was in favour of Brexit.
Trump gave nothing away.
Personally I would reckon with the risk of the break up of the UK and his strong leanings towards the green agenda prince Charles would be anything but a brexiteer if his political leanings could be revealed. I would be surprised if any of the royal family were in favour of a no deal brexit.

They can't really go against it so Piers can make up whatever he wants really and not get contradicted on it.

Peregrinus

robinph wrote: »

Is that thinking along the lines of doing so just before parliament gets a chance to vote against no deal at the end of October?

Basically, yes. This is an idea that has been floating around in the more lunatic fringes of brexitry for some months now.

robinph wrote: »

That is the point at which I'd expect the Queen to somehow use her limited powers in some way and tell him to sod off back to parliament and do his job.

Doubt she will need to. Very unlikely that, even in its current parlous condition, the bulk of opinion in the Tory parliamentary party would tolerate what amounts to an anti-democratic coup. Any PM would be out on his ear before he ever got to trouble Her Maj with this. Plus, we can imagine how John Bercow would relish ruling on the legitimacy of a prorogation commission in this circumstance.

Also doubt that Raab would seriously contemplate this - he's evil, but he's not stupid. He thinks, however, that it may be to his electoral advantage to pretend to be open to it, since a large part of the Tory party electorate are complete half-wits.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

Basically, yes. This is an idea that has been floating around in the more lunatic fringes of brexitry for some months now.


Doubt she will need to. Very unlikely that, even in its current parlous condition, the bulk of opinion in the Tory parliamentary party would tolerate what amounts to an anti-democratic coup. Any PM would be out on his ear before he ever got to trouble Her Maj with this. Plus, we can imagine how John Bercow would relish ruling on the legitimacy of a prorogation commission in this circumstance.

Also doubt that Raab would seriously contemplate this - he's evil, but he's not stupid. He thinks, however, that it may be to his electoral advantage to pretend to be open to it, since a large part of the Tory party electorate are complete half-wits.

There was a comedian /interviewer on Newsnight last night who had just chaired a meeting of Tory MPs where leadership hopefuls were interrogated about their policies. He spoke openly about the meeting and the contenders. He eviscerated Raab personally and politically as being extremely tense and nervous while being rabidly right wing and completely out of touch with MPs. Incidentally, he was impressed by Gove.

20silkcut

robinph wrote: »

As I don't believe that Trump is capable of not giving anything away, if he knew something he'd have blurted it out, then the only conclusion is that Piers Morgan was talking rubbish. Charles is going to be too well practiced in not saying anything political since the day he could speak that I seriously doubt he'd have said anything about Brexit to Trump.

He actually said that Charles said “ the UK has lots of options” so whatever that means. Sounds a bit Brexity to me if it’s true. But this is coming from the man who says our wall will work out great.

Peregrinus

20silkcut wrote: »

He actually said that Charles said “ the UK has lots of options” so whatever that means.

It means nothing, while sounding upbeat, which is why it's precisely the kind of thing the royals are adept at saying.

steddyeddy

A Ford factory in Wales could be closing in 2020. Again Brexiters will be straight on their keyboards saying it's nothing to do with them.

Laois_Man

robinph wrote: »

As I don't believe that Trump is capable of not giving anything away, if he knew something he'd have blurted it out, then the only conclusion is that Piers Morgan was talking rubbish. Charles is going to be too well practiced in not saying anything political since the day he could speak that I seriously doubt he'd have said anything about Brexit to Trump.

That was just a really sly attempt by Morgan at luring Trump's runaway mouth into giving him a big exclusive. I was actually surprised Trump didn't make something up to suit his own agenda!

robinph

Laois_Man wrote: »

That was just a really sly attempt by Morgan at luring Trump's runaway mouth into giving him a big exclusive. I was actually surprised Trump didn't make something up to suit his own agenda!

It's actually surprising that Trump didn't say something about having had a great chat with Charles and he thinks I'm great, he's great too, a great man, I'm great and Chuck thinks Brexit is great, and said I'm great. Did I mention he said I'm great? He's got some strange ideas about climate change and said it wasn't the Chinese, but thinks I'm great and we are going to get Mexico to pay for it. Do you want a wall for Ireland, I know some great guys?

gormdubhgorm

I thought the brief part where Trump gives his views on Brexit, beside a visibly annoyed/squirming Leo (who was holding his tongue).
It was unintentionally funny.

Trump said:
"You have a wall/a border.
I have a wall.
Everything will work out, Brexit will be good for Ireland"

Leo was fit to jump out his chair I thought.

Plus then Trump seemed to do a full 360 with his comments on Theresa May's Brexit.

To then praising her and saying she did not great enough credit as it is teed up now!
@ 27:00

Trump seems so easily influenced by what others say it is frightening.
Or does he just say what people want to hear?

fergiesfolly

Watching all the D-Day commemorations and how grateful the British people are to the men who sacrificed their lives during the landings.
Yet they want to leave the very organisation set up to ensure it need never happen again in Europe.