Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

According to pro Brexit commentators in the UK on TV and radio in the last couple of days the Irish are turning against our govt because we are all increasingly terrified of no deal.

Even the poll they point to as evidence had 27% of respondents having no opinion.

Is there any more solid evidence of public opinion shifting?

I don't detect a big shift, maybe a minor one.

Irish Praetorian

20silkcut wrote: »

In fairness is there anything stopping them from leaving immediately bar themselves??? They could leave tomorrow if they really really wanted to?
There are not exactly mass protests on the street demanding brexit.
Boris et al know that the masses in favour of Brexit now could disappear like a fart in the wind if things go south post hard Brexit. He needs a deal. He needs a ladder to climb down hence the pressure on us.
You can’t depend on the public. Especially a fickle rabble roused public like in Britain at the moment.

They will be tomorrow’s angry mob protesting any hardship caused by brexit.

In 2008 we were the most anti European country in the EU in terms of official vote. 12 months later we were back in love again as if nothing happened.
There is nothing as fickle as the electorate and that is even more the case when it comes to the EU.
It’s either a protest vote or vote for a candidate who has a nice smile like Brian Crowley.
Same in Britain most of them didn’t even realize they could vote for MEPs until this year.

My own impression of our various 'didn't work the first time lets try again' votes on various European treaties is that they struck out the first time because there was a lot of complacency around and people were expecting them to pass and thus didn't vote, whereas second time around not only was turnout higher but the voters tended to be either more informed/motivated on the issue, or they were swayed by a a pro-EU campaign which got itself up to the level of lies and dishonesty that the anti-EU campaigns tend to start at. Say what you will about 'Vote Yes for Jobs' it's marginally less embarrasing than 'the EU loves control' or 'Goodbye UN hello NATO'.

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is there any more solid evidence of public opinion shifting?

I don't detect a big shift, maybe a minor one.

I haven't seen any polls on how the Irish view the EU but anybody I've talked to (from various backgrounds) is of the view that the UK are going to damage their own economy and whilst there will be some collateral damage here, we're doing all we can and the EU has our back.

Jim2007

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I haven't seen any polls on how the Irish view the EU.

The Eurobarometer has been running since 1974. Knock yourself out.

BluePlanet

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I can’t get over this tweet.
It should be shown to every DUP member and hardcore loyalist. This is what they think of you. They don’t care about you or the peace in the north at all.
When bombs start going off in Belfast and London, brexit fanatics like this guy should be held directly accountable.

It is truly a cult fanaticism at this stage

I love the creative thinking there.
But SF would never go along with it.
The quickest route to a UI is a hard brexit and hard border and they know it.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

According to pro Brexit commentators in the UK on TV and radio in the last couple of days the Irish are turning against our govt because we are all increasingly terrified of no deal.

Even the poll they point to as evidence had 27% of respondents having no opinion.

Is there any more solid evidence of public opinion shifting?

I don't detect a big shift, maybe a minor one.

That poll in the Indo had dissatisfaction with Varadkar in general at the exact same level with his handling of Brexit (there were two questions). I would read nothing into it.....any talk that Irish people want us to ditch the backstop is obviously utter nonsense.

road_high

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

According to pro Brexit commentators in the UK on TV and radio in the last couple of days the Irish are turning against our govt because we are all increasingly terrified of no deal.

Even the poll they point to as evidence had 27% of respondents having no opinion.

Is there any more solid evidence of public opinion shifting?

I don't detect a big shift, maybe a minor one.

Yes a minor one in the direction of further support of the backstop and the government position I’d say! The English have never understood the Irish - the more they try undermine, belittle and threaten us the more galvanized we become. We’ve had it for hundreds of years, Brexit is chicken feed compared to some of their past exploits here. This time is very different as we are out in the big bad world on our own two feet these days, with trade and political alliances all over the world. A hard Brexit would be inconvenient and damaging but certainly not something we fear or couldn’t overcome. That’s also why the threats are falling on deaf ears

J Mysterio

The Financial Times are reporting that artists at the Edinburgh Intrrnational Festival are refusing to be paid in Sterling.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1157669385743605761

This should be a fairly strong signal that you're not doing it right yet tonight, tomorrow and the next day, we will have people on BBC and elsewhere saying that this is fear or propaganda or some other nonsense.

Anything goes in the UK at the moment, it seems. Post experts, post truth, post diplomacy, post shame, post common sense.

road_high

Makes perfect sense. Anything in GBP is equivalent to an enormous cut in remuneration

Irish Praetorian

J Mysterio wrote: »

The Financial Times are reporting that artists at the Edinburgh Intrrnational Festival are refusing to be paid in Sterling.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1157669385743605761

This should be a fairly strong signal that you're not doing it right yet tonight, tomorrow and the next day, we will have people on BBC and elsewhere saying that this is fear or propaganda or some other nonsense.

Anything goes in the UK at the moment, it seems. Post experts, post truth, post diplomacy, post shame, post common sense.

Is it really that serious? I mean fair enough for a performer on an income they may not want to see that fluctuate 5-10%, but have we any such indications from big business?

Joe_ Public

Just for those wondering at the relative inaction of the remain side, a timely reminder that they haven't completely downed tools and abandoned all hope:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/03/peoples-vote-campaign-target-100-key-marginals-second-referendum-tactical-voting

Some juicy names on that list: Ian Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers, Zac Goldsmith.

Of course, it can work the other way too with some remain MPs under threat, but all in all, i think a GE should hold no fears whatsoever for remainers, regardless of the circumstances. Conservatives going to be wiped out in Scotland for a start, i would think, 13 seats down to likely half that or even less. Dont know how it works with Labour and the Lib Dems, possibly tearing strips off each other, but for the prospect of IDS and a few of his fellow travellers getting their comeuppance, i believe it is something to look forward to with some optimism if not relish.

Kermit.de.frog

Going to get more difficult to attract people to work in the UK with sterling getting pummelled.

Kaybaykwah

road_high wrote: »

Yes a minor one in the direction of further support of the backstop and the government position I’d say! The English have never understood the Irish - the more they try undermine, belittle and threaten us the more galvanized we become. We’ve had it for hundreds of years, Brexit is chicken feed compared to some of their past exploits here. This time is very different as we are out in the big bad world on our own two feet these days, with trade and political alliances all over the world. A hard Brexit would be inconvenient and damaging but certainly not something we fear or couldn’t overcome. That’s also why the threats are falling on deaf ears

Well put.

I have to say, I was in Ireland last week, I spent a little under two weeks visiting the country. I had lived in Dublin for a year in '87-'88, and did a short 3 week trip in 1981 before that. I was blown away by the change, and very proud of what the Irish people had managed to effect in thirty years. I hate to think that my departure had anything to do with the Celtic Tiger happening, but hey...

I also think that Ireland can overcome and maybe thrive post Brexit if it keeps t the course it has started on, that is, a more worldly, less insular gem of a country. When I lived in Dublin, there were no highways, and although the wealth of a sizable part of the populace was evident, the opportunities were still sorely lacking, and the culture of poverty engrained. I noticed a complete shift had occurred, and that was refreshing and encouraging. The fact that young Irish people could remain and expect to thrive, and moreover, that immigrants could set up new comfortable roots in a democratic, booming republic was remarkable to me.

In spite of the bumps ahead, Ireland has a lot of advantages over the UK. It is more nimble, still connected to the EU, has the respect of a Nations, and the use of the English language has an edge that opens more opportunities.

Ireland is also a very temperate country, not prone to the kinds of disasters that many other countries have to deal with punctually, and that is not a negligible factor, I am hoping it remains somewhat protected from Man-made become slash Natural upheavals. I also hope that political leaders choose wisely when faced with sourcing Energy, and protecting the environment.

The more iffy question remains; in the wake of Brexit, will the GFA be undermined by the heritage of discontent, segregation and poverty that the British created, perpetuated and seem ever unable to come to terms with?

CarPark2

Quick question:
All of the focus is on UKs difficulty trading with EU in event of no deal brexit, because there will be no trade deal in place, so we will have to trade on WTO rules. But my understanding is that UK doesn’t have trade deals with any other country either. At the moment, they trade on the basis of EU trade deals.
So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

Nody

CarPark2 wrote: »

Quick question:
All of the focus is on UKs difficulty trading with EU in event of no deal brexit, because there will be no trade deal in place, so we will have to trade on WTO rules. But my understanding is that UK doesn’t have trade deals with any other country either. At the moment, they trade on the basis of EU trade deals.
So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

Yes; some countries have said they will consider to roll over the existing trade deals (see the trip May did to South Africa and paying several billions for them to consider it) but most countries will not roll things over simply because they can screw over UK instead of signing the deal done for a region the size of EU. Why give UK same deal as EU when they can get a significantly better deal by holding out on UK (who'll be desperate and are a smaller market which don't warrant as good of a deal if you look at it neutrally)?

Strazdas

CarPark2 wrote: »

Quick question:
All of the focus is on UKs difficulty trading with EU in event of no deal brexit, because there will be no trade deal in place, so we will have to trade on WTO rules. But my understanding is that UK doesn’t have trade deals with any other country either. At the moment, they trade on the basis of EU trade deals.
So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

That appears to be the case, yes. Most of their trade deals are via the EU so No Deal would leave them trading via WTO rules and having to apply tariffs everywhere.

tuxy

CarPark2 wrote: »

Quick question:
All of the focus is on UKs difficulty trading with EU in event of no deal brexit, because there will be no trade deal in place, so we will have to trade on WTO rules. But my understanding is that UK doesn’t have trade deals with any other country either. At the moment, they trade on the basis of EU trade deals.
So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

With goods they sell to other countries tariffs will be at WTO rates.
On items they import they can set any rate they want once the rate is the same for every country.

I also believe a limited number of countries(Faore Islands, Switzerland) have agreed to replicate the deal the UK has while part of the EU. Only small countries, no large powerful country would agree to terms that are so favourable to the UK

Kermit.de.frog

CarPark2 wrote: »

So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

Yes. As of Halloween that would be the case with no trade deals in place and having exited all the existing EU trade agreements.

It will all be fine though. Boris and Nigel said so.

Sam Russell

CarPark2 wrote: »

Quick question:
All of the focus is on UKs difficulty trading with EU in event of no deal brexit, because there will be no trade deal in place, so we will have to trade on WTO rules. But my understanding is that UK doesn’t have trade deals with any other country either. At the moment, they trade on the basis of EU trade deals.
So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

No, they have secured a valuable trade deal with the Faeroe Islands that allows the Faeroes to land fish into the UK without tariffs. They have secured a deal with Switzerland that allows the Swiss to repatriate their gold. A deal with Southern Africa which allows the UK to continue foreign aid.

Canada have not allowed their EU deal to be rolled over. Australia likewise.

Anyway, check it out here.

road_high

Nody wrote: »

Yes; some countries have said they will consider to roll over the existing trade deals (see the trip May did to South Africa and paying several billions for them to consider it) but most countries will not roll things over simply because they can screw over UK instead of signing the deal done for a region the size of EU. Why give UK same deal as EU when they can get a significantly better deal by holding out on UK (who'll be desperate and are a smaller market which don't warrant as good of a deal if you look at it neutrally)?

Indeed. Why on earth would a country roll over the EU trade deals on the same terms just because they were part of the Great British empire/colony fest back in the 1800s and really great chums? More of the fantasy land world Brexiters have been living in the past 3+ years. WTO/no deal terms are absolutely dreadful. The UK is already an expensive place to buy/sell goods. Lashing tariffs on top would surely torpedo things completely.

McGiver

BluePlanet wrote:

I love the creative thinking there. But SF would never go along with it. The quickest route to a UI is a hard brexit and hard border and they know it.

Quickest but also the most expensive. Because hard Brexit would throw NI into a deep recession, unemployment, debts, deficits, so going ahead with UI in the such condition is significantly more costlier and also difficult in terms of economic asset well as political integration.

road_high

McGiver wrote: »

Quickest but also the most expensive. Because hard Brexit would throw NI into a deep recession, unemployment, debts, deficits, so going ahead with UI in the such condition is significantly more costlier and also difficult in terms of economic asset well as political integration.

It would already be like that without the subvention. It’s a basket case long before Brexit appeared

Sierra Oscar

Just looking at the Sunday papers, some mad stuff in there.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157755040951611393

Hard to see where the compromise is going to come from.

Stop moaning ffs

Hope it’s ok to post this again in case anyone missed it. Fascinating interview on brexit by the ever insightful billy Bragg on the Irish Times podcast. Cuts exactly very to why this happened and how the mindset have been given over to ‘monomania’ and propaganda

Give it a spin. You’ll be glad you did

https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/irish-times-inside-politics/id794389685?i=1000445935266

prawnsambo

McGiver wrote: »

Quickest but also the most expensive. Because hard Brexit would throw NI into a deep recession, unemployment, debts, deficits, so going ahead with UI in the such condition is significantly more costlier and also difficult in terms of economic asset well as political integration.

It would be a long time before we'd be picking up the bill for NI. A UI would take years. At least a decade before it would be complete.

road_high

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Just looking at the Sunday papers, some mad stuff in there.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157755040951611393

Hard to see where the compromise is going to come from.

If they’re so ready and able for No deal then why the major focus on stopping hit? I thought they were so prepared and gung ho that surely the press would be extolling the benefits accrued on 01st November next.

Stop moaning ffs

prawnsambo wrote: »

It would be a long time before we'd be picking up the bill for NI. A UI would take years. At least a decade before it would be complete.

That would be another divorce bill for the uk. Possibly more expensive than €39 billion. And the rest funded by the EU until stabilisation economically.

Gas part is Britain has no say in that either and lets be honest. They’d be happy to see the back of Northern Ireland. Economically and socially.
When they’re rarely aware it exists it only causes them hassle.
Hello backstop.

Enzokk

Steve Barclay has some big words for Barnier,

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1157749358265327616?s=20

Basically it is to give the UK what they want or they will leave without a deal on October 31st. There is many reasons why the EU should give in, the recent EU elections mean that 61% of MEPs are new. How that squares with a new deal is a mystery, but it is a reason.

Then there is the fact that the backstop has been voted down 3 times already. This is reason for the EU to give in, because the UK cannot accept the deal on the table for them to leave. The plan is for alternative arrangements to sort out the border and the talks on the border to be settled once trade talks start. If only that arch remainer David Davis hadn't given in when the negotiations started.

But the real reason why a new deal should be given is that the UK should have an orderly exit from the EU. It is in the interest of all sides. So the one side has to work very hard and to give in or the other side will throw a tantrum and leave. These are supposed to be the adults in the room, threatening to hurt others because they don't get their way. Screw them, let them leave and come crawling back in a few months time. The GBP will have tanked by that stage so getting to agree to the euro will not make that much of a difference.

reslfj

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Just looking at the Sunday papers, some mad stuff in there.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157755040951611393

Hard to see where the compromise is going to come from.

I'm just saying:
The EU can be surprisingly creative when they feel they and Ireland are pawns in a game. It may not feel pleasant in London.

Lars

road_high

So pretty much no reason to change tack then from the EUs perspective.