Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

What part of " the withdrawal agreement and backstop are dead. The UK are leaving with or without a deal on 31st of October" do you not understand.

The part where Boris Johnson is saying it. He might actually stick to his word this time, but his track record wouldn't inspire me to bet on it.

PeadarCo

brickster69 wrote:

What part of " the withdrawal agreement and backstop are dead. The UK are leaving with or without a deal on 31st of October" do you not understand.

The issue is what a lot of people point out is that the UK needs a deal. So they leave without a deal on 31st of October and on the 1st of November they still need a deal but would be negotiating from an even weaker position.

So agree we need to prepare for a no deal but that includes how to deal with the UK request for a deal post brexit while they are grappling with the consequences of a no deal which they will unable to prepare sufficiently for.

declanflynn

prawnsambo wrote: »

declanflynn wrote: »

Is that route more expensive?

I actually don't know. I would imagine there's not much in it. The main advantage of the landbridge is time. but that would go after brexit with delays everywhere.

When you say time, is the land bridge much faster in my head there is a lot of changing and messing going via the landbridge

Lackadaisical

Any talk of disruption of the land bridge or blockading Irish traffic transiting the UK would be like Canada trying to blockade intra-US traffic between the 48 contiguous United States and Alaska. The consequences would be at the very least trade sanctions.

They wouldn’t be blocking Irish trade but intra EU trade.

Not only that but they would be disrupting a large number of multinational companies who would undoubtedly take legal action and also start to see the UK as an unreliable, rogue state willing to damage business for the sake of jingoism and extreme nationalism. So basically it would be the UK writing its own economic epitaph and joining the fringe of rogue states like Russia, that are seen as unstable and high risk to invest in or transact through.

First Up

declanflynn wrote:

When you say time, is the land bridge much faster in my head there is a lot of changing and messing going via the landbridge

Google Maps shows I can get to Paris from Dublin in under 13 hours via the Landbridge (Holyhead ferry and Channel Tunnel.)

That's faster than any ferry direct to France but its based purely on travel time and assumes smooth transfers.

As part of the Single Market, transfers into/through the UK have been smooth enough to allow traders operate very reliable delivery schedules with frequent services and no port delays.

That will change from November; to what extent we don't know yet.

Leroy42

brickster69 wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

We can't decide as the UK, in taking back control, still haven't worked out what they want.

The EU, hell even the UK itself, is still waiting for the UK to work out it's own strategy. Seems a bit rich to demand that others have answers to a question the UJ hasn't even asked yet.

The solution to the red lines in the backstop.

What part of " the withdrawal agreement and backstop are dead. The UK are leaving with or without a deal on 31st of October" do you not understand.

The EU have said there will be no more negotiations, if that is the case then surely it is good to prepare and inform people what will happen in that case.

Johnson voted for the WA a few weeks ago. So has he changed his mind? But he won't change it again?

The real issue is that the border is the default when a third country. The EU and UK negotiated a way around that issue but Johnson has changed his mind on accepting it.

The answer therefore lies with whatever the UK decides to do next.

Johnson could take the UK out tomorrow. He has put down preconditions to talks which he knows cannot be met. So what is he waiting for?

Sam Russell

declanflynn wrote: »

When you say time, is the land bridge much faster in my head there is a lot of changing and messing going via the landbridge

Diving time of Athlone to Cherbourg is 1.5 hrs to Dublin plus 3 hrs 50 min cherboug to Paris. Ship time is 19 hrs.

Driving time Athlone to Paris via the UK is 15 hrs, but that does not include waiting to load/unload twice.

So by direct route it is 24.5 hrs plus load unload once from ferry. Landbridge is 15 hrs plus two load unload times, twice as much driving time, which has to satisfy tachograph.

Assume the direct route does not require an accompanied driver, then there would not be a lot in it. Delays at Holyhead and Dover might make the direct route quicker.

All told, not a lot in it.

Lackadaisical

First Up wrote: »

Google Maps shows I can get to Paris from Dublin in under 13 hours via the Landbridge (Holyhead ferry and Channel Tunnel.)

That's faster than any ferry direct to France but its based purely on travel time and assumes smooth transfers.

As part of the Single Market, transfers into/through the UK have been smooth enough to allow traders operate very reliable delivery schedules with frequent services and no port delays.

That will change from November; to what extent we don't know yet.

The Pont Aven does Cork to Roscoff departing at 16:00 and arriving at 07:00 French Rome (06:00 Irish Time) so 14 hours.

You’re also coming into a much less congested part of France in terms of traffic. Getting out of those smaller ports is very quick.

Deub

declanflynn wrote: »

Was in Tesco's today and it crossed my mind should we be building up a stock of non perishable goods that come from the uk or Europe

I think it would be useless. It would only cover for few weeks. Also, storage has a cost so it may actually be cheaper to import products from the continent than storing products from the UK.

First Up

Lackadaisical wrote:

The Pont Aven does Cork to Roscoff departing at 16:00 and arriving at 07:00 French Rome (06:00 Irish Time) so 14 hours.

Plus the 8-10 hours for Dublin/Cork and Roscoff/Paris

Kermit.de.frog

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Any talk of disruption of the land bridge or blockading Irish traffic transiting the UK would be like Canada trying to blockade intra-US traffic between the 48 contiguous United States and Alaska. The consequences would be at the very least trade sanctions.

They wouldn’t be blocking Irish trade but intra EU trade.

Not only that but they would be disrupting a large number of multinational companies who would undoubtedly take legal action and also start to see the UK as an unreliable, rogue state willing to damage business for the sake of jingoism and extreme nationalism. So basically it would be the UK writing its own economic epitaph and joining the fringe of rogue states like Russia, that are seen as unstable and high risk to invest in or transact through.

It is illegal under WTO rules to obstruct the trade of a neighbor through your territory like that.

It would be a very dumb thing to try and do.

declanflynn

Sam Russell wrote: »

declanflynn wrote: »

When you say time, is the land bridge much faster in my head there is a lot of changing and messing going via the landbridge

Diving time of Athlone to Cherbourg is 1.5 hrs to Dublin plus 3 hrs 50 min cherboug to Paris. Ship time is 19 hrs.

Driving time Athlone to Paris via the UK is 15 hrs, but that does not include waiting to load/unload twice.

So by direct route it is 24.5 hrs plus load unload once from ferry. Landbridge is 15 hrs plus two load unload times, twice as much driving time, which has to satisfy tachograph.

Assume the direct route does not require an accompanied driver, then there would not be a lot in it. Delays at Holyhead and Dover might make the direct route quicker.

All told, not a lot in it.

So we are kinda ok if the English pull up the drawbridge

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is illegal under WTO rules to obstruct the trade of a neighbor through your territory like that.

It would be a very dumb thing to try and do.

I wouldn't put it past Brexiteers to try and blockade alá French farmer at this stage.

Sam Russell

Deub wrote: »

I think it would be useless. It would only cover for few weeks. Also, storage has a cost so it may actually be cheaper to import products from the continent than storing products from the UK.

I think the poster was thinking of personal stock piles - toilet paper, tinned products, dry goods, etc etc.

The supermarkets (local Tesco) are already showing shortages of some basic products.

First Up

declanflynn wrote:

So we are kinda ok if the English pull up the drawbridge

They won't pull it up but if the congestion at UK ports is anything like predicted it will be a lot less attractive and maybe too unreliable for time sensitive shipments.

It isn't a coincidence that we are seeing additional capacity from Ireland to France, Holland and Spain.

Valhallapt

Hopefully by this stage the big multiples have already tested alternative supply routes and products. I did hear someone say that aldi/lidl have already reduced the % of British sourced goods substantially.

I hope the others don’t leave it until Brexit day and then find we run out of certain basics. The English media would love that.

Lackadaisical

First Up wrote: »

Plus the 8-10 hours for Dublin/Cork and Roscoff/Paris

Why wood goods be exclusively going to central Paris or from central Dublin? Most of the biggest exporters south of Dublin City are 2h or less from Cork and a lot of the agrifood sector is located in the south of the country anyway as are big exporters like pharma and so on.

The time to and from the existing ports isn’t being considered in your statement. For example accessing Dublin Port isn’t all that easy a lot of the time due to increasing congestion on the M50.

Access across England isn’t always easy either and the southern English ports are often very slow even now.

declanflynn

Deub wrote: »

declanflynn wrote: »

Was in Tesco's today and it crossed my mind should we be building up a stock of non perishable goods that come from the uk or Europe

I think it would be useless. It would only cover for few weeks. Also, storage has a cost so it may actually be cheaper to import products from the continent than storing products from the UK.

I just meant stocking up on stuff at a household level

Igotadose

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think the poster was thinking of personal stock piles - toilet paper, tinned products, dry goods, etc etc.

The supermarkets (local Tesco) are already showing shortages of some basic products.

Stockpiling is probably already happening. HMG's been coy about it for some time, but supposedly there're plans. Latest is that Xmas season foods will be what's in storage in October, so enjoy your pudding and goose a couple months early: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/no-deal-brexit-christmas-food-disruption_uk_5d430fd7e4b0acb57fc91c6a

brickster69

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is illegal under WTO rules to obstruct the trade of a neighbor through your territory like that.

It would be a very dumb thing to try and do.

Same for UK goods going through the EU presumably ?

FrancieBrady

brickster69 wrote: »

Same for UK goods going through the EU presumably ?

They'll have to be checked. There is no checking requirement for goods transiting through the UK for the continent.

Igotadose

And, if this is what their media blitz gets them, well, good luck BoJo.

Apparently, IDS thinks Brexit's just like the Reformation. Some actual functioning humans have an issue with that:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/iain-duncan-smith-dunce-brexit-telegraph_uk_5d4563e1e4b0ca604e329463

Among the embedded quotes: "Duncan Smith is a Catholic. The English reformation made his faith illegal for 300 years and led to the murder, torture and abuse of his fellow believers. A stupid man, with no grasp of history."

and
"why do these dunces abuse history in the name of their simple- minded prejudices. 1) the Reformation was a pan European phenomenon, 2) it created a religious civil war in Britain that lasted 2 centuries"

Harry Palmr

Re stockpiling - the only hope there might be is if there is any of the giant freezer warehousing that used to be full of beef mountain and which is now under utilized, it could be good for some produce for a week or three but other than that Ireland has very little free space for short date consumables I'd say.

Imagine being in Kent or living along the southern part of the M25 on November the 1st, it'll either be a ghost town or a static riot.

declanflynn

Igotadose wrote: »

And, if this is what their media blitz gets them, well, good luck BoJo.

Apparently, IDS thinks Brexit's just like the Reformation. Some actual functioning humans have an issue with that:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/iain-duncan-smith-dunce-brexit-telegraph_uk_5d4563e1e4b0ca604e329463

Among the embedded quotes: "Duncan Smith is a Catholic. The English reformation made his faith illegal for 300 years and led to the murder, torture and abuse of his fellow believers. A stupid man, with no grasp of history."

and
"why do these dunces abuse history in the name of their simple- minded prejudices. 1) the Reformation was a pan European phenomenon, 2) it created a religious civil war in Britain that lasted 2 centuries"

I wonder how many Tory MPs are foreigners to the uk I mean parents or grandparents are foreigners
We should call boris, de pfeffel

First Up

Lackadaisical wrote:

Why wood goods be exclusively going to central Paris or from central Dublin? Most of the biggest exporters south of Dublin City are 2h or less from Cork and a lot of the agrifood sector is located in the south of the country anyway as are big exporters like pharma and so on.

I gave a comparison between the landbridge and direct ferry on the same route. Of course it depends where you are starting from and where you are going but a lot of Irish exporters have been using the landbridge.

Everyone in that business is re-calibrating to prepare for Brexit fall-out, including the chaos at UK ports. Thats why we now have ferries serving Cork/Santander, Dublin/Cherbourg and Dublin/Antwerp.

Harry Palmr

Waterford port also now has a weekly direct link to Rotterdam with the arrival of BG Freight Line.

prawnsambo

Sam Russell wrote: »

Diving time of Athlone to Cherbourg is 1.5 hrs to Dublin plus 3 hrs 50 min cherboug to Paris. Ship time is 19 hrs.

Driving time Athlone to Paris via the UK is 15 hrs, but that does not include waiting to load/unload twice.

So by direct route it is 24.5 hrs plus load unload once from ferry. Landbridge is 15 hrs plus two load unload times, twice as much driving time, which has to satisfy tachograph.

Assume the direct route does not require an accompanied driver, then there would not be a lot in it. Delays at Holyhead and Dover might make the direct route quicker.

All told, not a lot in it.

I think the way that's managed is container to tractor unit with a local driver hauling it to the next port/destination. Very few accompanied loads going via the landbridge afaik. Usually just stuff to the UK only.

prawnsambo

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Waterford port also now has a weekly direct link to Rotterdam with the arrival of BG Freight Line.

The interesting thing is whether that will ever switch back should brexit be cancelled. A lot of decisions have been made that may never be reversed.

declanflynn

De pfeffel's great grandfather was a Muslim, nigel farrages's great grandparents imigrated from Germany to the uk, there was always going to be some tension in that relationship

VinLieger

Right its Monday tomorrow anyone wanna take a guess on where the pound will drop to for its weekly plummet? I think its gonna go below 1.08